ThreeHundredEight.com Fool Me Once Alberta Projection: NDP majority
Your Alberta Election thread is now open.
You can follow returns at CBC Alberta Votes 2015, until I can find something better.
Update: Live on-the-scene coverage of Alberta electorate… developing
Now what was it you were saying, Mr Coyne?
I am tempted to congratulate Mr. Prentice for his Mephistophelean cunning, not only more or less destroying the Wildrose Party at one blow…
In summation – let this be a lesson to conservative parties everywhere: slur, ostracize and belittle the base at your peril.
Moose Jaw is looking better every day.
So is Nutley a doctrinaire socialist that will put Alberta in have not status in 2 years or a pragmatic socialist that will bankrupt Alberta in 4 years.
Prediction:
NDP 41
WRP 32
PC 12
Lib 1
Alberta Party 1
who gets bounced?
Dirks
Denis
Lucaszuk
Fawcett
Mandel
If/when this happens, Sask and (I know…) NFLD will be the only two conservative (one big C, one small c) governed provinces in Canada. Think about that for a second. Newfoundland elected a PC premier but Alberta is about to go full moron.
No wonder I really don’t give a damn anymore. This country is lost…. Us Christians need to realize what’s coming for us here in Canada.
Well, Redford was an NDP shill so why shouldn’t her supporters go socialist this time? I’ve always thought most of my fellow Albertans like their ‘free stuff’ supplied from our taxes as opposed to working for it. The parasites are here!!! Now where do I go?
An NDP win with a Wild Rose official opposition is the best thing that could hit Alberta (and yes I like the province).
If an elected NDP self-destructs it will be a reminder of how quickly politicians who don’t understand business can destroy an economy.
It will be a reminder to the PC Party to stop taking the riches of the province for granted. It will force them to act like real conservatives and not the blue socialists they have become.
And if the NDP does a great job … wow, my mind just went blank.
Prediction:
Tory: 57
NDP: 23
WR: 5
Liberal: 2
I could see the Torys getting to 60 depending on the vote turnout. I base this on little else than I can’t see the NDP winning more than a handful of seats outside of Edmonton and my guess is that the Wildrose vote is going to all go Tory except in a very few southern rural ridings.
Then we Albertans can get back to complaining about the damn Tory government and how they’ve been in too long.
Well, looks like I may have to sell the Heartland igloo and return to the roots my Great Grandfather planted in RM 305 in Saskatchewan.
As a former Albertan, now in Vancouver, I have said during the last several elections that if the NDP get back in I’m moving back to Alberta………now what?
Nice province you had there.
Took us 10 years to recover from the last NDP indulgence here.
Viewing this from Ontario, all I can do is shake my head and keep a hanky handy for the crying later tonight.
You boys is f-ed if the NDPee get even a minority.
On the bright side, maybe there will be fewer people talking sh1t about Ontario now that you’ve seen this elephant up close. The West Wants In has turned into The West Wants A Free Lunch, just the same as Ontario.
I will warn you that The Oil Patch will go down hill a hell of a lot faster than Ontario’s diversified manufacturing economy did. It took the Liberals and NDPee 40 years to turn this place from a Have to a Have Not. Alberta could do that switch in five years. Only one industry to kill.
Don’t see the PCs pulling this one out of the fire. The anger and disgust is so palpable it reminds me of the tsunami that bore down on the federal PC party after Mulroney left office. But an NDP govt? EEEEEP.
Prediction
Conservatives 43
Wild Rose 24
NDP 15
Liberals 4
Alberta Party 1
Conservatives will then have to attract one “other” for a majority but will likely want a buffer of at least 6 turncoats. They will have to reach out to the left or the right to get their sustainable majority. Finally, Alberta politics will be nuanced.
An NDP government in Alberta? Ah, schadenfreude!
Cons 40
NDP 30
WR 18
No way the Communists are getting a majority. This is Alberta.
PCs will pick up 10 % at the polls today. The commie supporters can’t figure out when or where to vote.
Nfld is NOT conservative whatsoever. The ndp in ab would dream of being as far left as the nlpcp is.
Lougheed, Getty, Klein, Stelmach, Redford, Prentice – none of these were/are conservatives. Not necessarily socialists, but clearly Red Tories or Liberal-lite.
Nenshi??
Albertans have long tolerated a mild form of socialism in their provincial governments – just not so much as to kill the Golden Goose as socialists tend to do (Rae/Wynne).
If Notley can keep things tame, she may even get a second chance because Albertans are not as right wing as many suppose. Notwithstanding that, they are still (slightly) more right wing than the rest of Canada (which is not saying much) and Albertans may have only decided to give the PCs a timeout and will take the next 4 years to decide whether the timeout is enough for them to learn a lesson or to retire them.
What, who is the outfit for this poll.
What was the question.
Per ads sounds like socialists.
Last two poll calls: after answering who voted for, the questions abrubtly quit, just like that.
308.com uses all polls available weighing them by how recent they are and how historically accurate they are.
I think
that all of the polling systems used this election skew to the ndp.
That the ndp vote is the youngest and least engaged of any segment this many will not vote
That the ndp vote is concentrated in urban ridings
That 308 doesn’t adjust for the rural/suburban/urban dynamic.
Thus the seat prediction is very generous to the ndp
The real wildcard is where the right of centre vote (55% of the vote) goes – will it be driven by fear to vote pc or wr or strategically. If it’s the latter it likely favour the PCs.
My estimate is
AB – 2
Lib – 4
WR 28
PC 22
ND 30
I guess we will soon find out how many stupid Albertans it takes to elect an NDP government. or how many non Albertans now reside in the province.
“who gets bounced? Dirks, Denis, Lucaszuk, Fawcett, Mandel”
If Dirks loses in Calgary-Elbow then the Torys are done. If the Torys ran a goat in Calgary-Elbow the goat would win. Denis should lose in Acadia but I think he might be saved by the anti-dipper vote. Fawcett is safe in Calgary-Klein. Again, see goat, election, win. I’ll guess Lucaszuk hangs on in Redmonton but Mandel goes down.
308.com projection day before 2013 BC provincial election ()= change from drop of writ:
NDP 44.1-47.9%: 44-55 seats: Actual: 34 seats (-2) Out by at least ten seats
BC Libs 35.8-39.6%: 26-41 seats: Actual: 49 seats (+4) Out by at least eight seats
One Green, One Independent
From Wikipedia – facts not opinion: “Despite their victory, the Liberals had been consistently several points behind the opposition New Democrats in every public opinion poll throughout the campaign. Even poll results released on the very last day of the campaign suggested that the New Democrats had an eight to nine percentage point margin over the Liberals.”
So, we shall see.
Don Martin/CTV acknowledged how wrong polls can be but said “it feels different this time.” Can’t say for myself but to me it feels a lot like the 13 BC election.
IMHO, Wild cards remain Calgary and vote splitting on the right.
Actually, in Calgary Elbow, as locals know, live the most rich socialist aristocrats.
There is of course the Mount Royal.
Used to campaign for an MP in the 80’s of the past century. Certain guy from that part of the city used to be influence in the organisation.
Well, the last federal election, he claimed to be still conservative though he voted Liberal.
Figure that one out.
E Pericoloso Sporgersi
Nfld almost certainly will go Liberal this Fall. We have had a good sound dull PC government for several years, folllowing a good and popular PC government led by Danny Williams; but Newfs like the taste of s**t, and s**t they will get. With a little (very bad) luck, Newfs will do their best to elect Justin this Fall. That will be a hoot! But you can’t talk sense to these people.
This may just be Alberta but let’s just say that the society is not nearly as homogeneous as it once was and those that have arrived here from India, Pakistan and Ontario aren’t nearly as conservative as you’d like to think.
which commies, the ones with the blue shell and red interior or orange shell red interior
“I’ll guess Lucaszuk hangs on in Redmonton but Mandel goes down.”
Both are as red as Notley.
I’m not in a position to say how this election will turn out, but using the BC 2013 election as a guide is probably not relevant since the BC-NDP made large strategic errors in the campaign and the Liberals (more or less the analogy to PCs) ran a smooth campaign without huge negatives to compare to the ApPrentice. There is of course no corresponding economic crisis to consider but the BC-NDP were simply too unsubtle about their job-killing politics even for the tastes of this province (although predictably the NDP heartland held firm over on Van Isle and in east Vungover). Also the small and weak BC Cons, while a similar draw to the Wild Rose, had never really broken into the approval range required to make them a real factor. It was probably easier for those flirting with them to drop them in the heat of the moment, than it will be for Alberta WR supporters to give the PC crowd a second gift. Same as Valentines’ Day basically, if you give twelve roses and an expensive dinner and all you get is a lecture on feminism, then next time it’s a drug store special (or nothing). See what I mean?
My guess will be an almost equal three-way split of the results from which PCs and Wild Rose can form a coalition for the time being.
Prediction:
I hope we have a hung Leg, but, my gut tells me a NDP Minority. Still here is the split I hope for:
WR: 30
NDP: 27
PC: 26
Lib: 3
AP: 1
Total: 87
If the polls are right, I say to you: Good Day Comrade.
PC 29
Wildrose 29
NDP 29
Heh!
I got this on Australian politics in an e-mail. Seems like it would adapt to Canadian politics too.
“A guy is walking along a beach when he comes across a lamp partially buried in the sand.
He picks up the lamp and gives it a rub.
A large genie appears out of the bottle and tells him he has been granted one wish.
The guy thinks for a moment and says, “I want to live forever.”
“Sorry,” said the genie, “I’m not allowed to grant eternal life.”
“OK, then, I want to die!” The genie was somewhat taken aback and observed the bloke a little more closely
“I want to die after a Labor government balances the budget and eliminates the debt.”
The genie stared at him a second or two then……
“You crafty little bastard,” said the genie.”
I’m guessing;
WRP 36
PC 28
NDP 22
AP 1
I just can’t see a reasonable Albertan walking into the voting booth and thinking ‘what the heck, lets give the dippers a shot at managing the public purse.’
I work with union people in Calgary and even they are not too sure about the NDP, though if they were the only ones voting, the NDP would have a majority. They won’t vote Wild Rose or PC. The Liberal party never entered any conversation in a meaningful way.
At the other end of the count;
Green party
Spoiled Ballots
Liberals
PC 31
NDP 19
WR 36
LIB 1
Slam dunk PC
U.Gottaby
I was one of those BC Conservative voters that changed my vote to Liberal when it was looking like the NDP was going to get back in. The same thing may happen in Alberta tonight.
Was speaking with my niece, union nurse in Calgary, and she is afraid of the NDP (I may have had something to do with it. She is a mid twenties union member, but it did not take much to enlighten her.)
I would really like to see what Wild Rose would do at the helm……..
NDP 39
Wild Rose 28
PC 17
Liberals 2
Alberta Party 1
Sadly Wildrose missed an opportunity here with Jean acting like a mouse during debate. PC faithful will stay home in disgust. Alison Redford will drink wine and giggle all night as she watches results on TV.
PC 47
Wildrose 29
NDP 10
Liberal 1
NDP 45
WR 31
PC 10
Lib 1
I am praying that you are right – with regard to the NDP at best getting a minority.
“Alison Redford will drink wine and giggle all night as she watches results on TV.”
Not a fair prediction, she does that every night. Sometimes with the tv on.
I like biffyjr prediction with some modification:
PC 36
Wildrose 29
NDP 20
Liberal 2
Who knows what Albertans are thinking.
NDP 36
WR 36
PC 13
Lib 2
The NDP will be bad news for the rest of Canada as Alberta will no longer remain Canada’s equalization cash cow. The big loser is Quebec.
There is an independent results tracking site at http://2015.abvote.ca/.
Here we go…
Corrupt Semi-Commies 26
Certified Stealth Commies 29
Dilapidated Centrist Commies 2
Confused Commies 1
Realists 29
I have no basis for making any prediction on the outcome of this election, but the last five years have given us a good basis for doubting the pollsters. I guess the unthinkable, an NDP win in Alberta, might happen tonight, but a majority is less likely. If it happens, my Alberta friends, I wish you the best in coping with it. We from the eastern prairies know this NDP up close, and it is not good for a province or its economy. If you are a union type or a public service worker, well perhaps it won’t be so bad for you. For everyone else, it’s going to be a nasty ride.
Bad link
Works for me, maybe try again.
I fled Ontario for THIS?!
It looks a lot like an NDP majority so far.
Well, Alberta, get ready to kiss your asses good bye.
The NDP will trash your province like you can’t even imagine yet.
Speaking as a British Columbian who has been there, seen that.