Financial Post- Could Canada retire itself into a recession?
The economists at National Bank of Canada said 70% of the job losses in July were from workers aged 55 and over, with Statistics Canada reporting that a record 300,000 Canadians retired in the past year. “Unforced retirements, not layoffs, seem to be the main cause of the reduction,” said National.
That’s a huge amount of lost income tax paid, typically from the demographic with the highest incomes as well.
Then let’s not forget, these same retirees will by and large also start drawing their CPP as soon as eligible too.
I hope to join this list of retirees VERY soon, paying negligible taxes to the CRA thieves as a net benefit. Poor Liberal thieves
Taxman does take 50% of RRSP and pension plan assets on your way out.
Correct. Draw down these accounts as fast as you can without incurring high marginal tax rates!
Dan
And remember, that if you continue working & paying g CPP..after 65..??
It may we work out to a paltry ~ 5.00 Increase per month on your CPP.
You do have the option of not paying it and keeping the ~2500/ year to yourself:
CPT-30 Form…fill it out, prove to your employer you’re over 65, and voila, no cpp deduction.
I only Found out a 16 months later when they sent me a letter informing me: “thank you for your contribution”
(A full year at Max), your monthly pension has increased by 4.65/ month.
Assholes.
Steaky!
No fckin chance of working near, at, or past 65. 59 and feelin fine!
I just had a good buddy pass at 65, he was still working. Time to hang it up and start living and spending the kids inheritance.
It is frustrating and disappointing that the authors do not mention the most significant trend in the employment statistics – the public sector has grown by about 400,000 since the start of the Wu Flu lockdowns in March 2020, while private sector employment has only recently increased to its level before the lockdowns. The implications for Canada are enormous. Lorne Gunter wrote about one of the implications a few days ago:
“I think I’ve finally figured out why more people who work in the public sector were OK with COVID lockdowns and mask mandates than people in the private sector. And, no, it’s not because they are part of some grand plot dreamt up by the World Economic Forum to strip us of our rights.
It’s because lockdowns and other restrictions didn’t impact their incomes and lives as much as they did for private-sector workers.”
https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/gunter-a-jobs-recovery-that-rests-on-public-sector-jobs-isnt-sustainable
Let me guess who is mostly getting those government jobs
Not white, Anglophone males.
To avoid decline, an aging nation needs to have:
– invested in automation to reduce future labour demand
– built up wealth in order to purchase goods from nations that are not aging (or who invested in automation)
– bring in migrants who will perform labour in exchange for giving them the country
If these have not occurred or are not attractive options, accept some decline in standards of living, or perhaps not the same level of improvement, which is not the worst option. A country with a declining work force has a difficult task growing GDP and by definition staying out of permanent recession.
It is not necessary to bring in immigrants. Japan is managing to remain prosperous in the face of a population decline. It has decided on virtually no immigration in order to maintain its language and culture – a policy supported by the large majority of the population.
Unfortunately we ain’t that bright…
Agreed, immigration is not necessary, it is only one of the options and there are different levels to do for any and all of the options.
Mass immigration is essentially cultural genocide.
It is a big decision to leave your birth country and immigrate to another.
Surely the exiting countries would /should retain these people who, by staying, would thus enrich their original country.
Not to mention that immigration is a form of colonialism.
Japan invests heavily in automation and built up wealth.
In the long run they will likely benefit from their zero immigration policy. Their economy may decline, but not necessarily in per-capita terms. As the population drops it will make housing cheaper and more plentiful. Education costs will decline. And eventually, the people who prioritize reproducing will be creating the next generation and passing down their values.
100 years from now Japan will still be Japanese, and the young people then will have space and opportunity and pro-creative values.
JEff: Agree. When you check the statistics, they confirm that per capita GDP in Japan continues to rise while overall GDP increases very slowly, if at all.
Japan’s economy has been moribund for decades. They’ve been propping it up with endless rounds of quantitative easing. “Prosperous” is not the word I’d use.
And prosperous is not how I would refer to Canada’s economy which has been super inflated by the Dear Leader’s printing of huge quantities of money, and with a health care system in absolute crisis. I would bet on Japan’s prospects more than Canada’s.
This is a very large problem, and every response to it will make it worse.
I work for lots of interesting people, and am in the age group looking at retirement over the next half decade. About 15 years ago I asked everyone I ran into, all around my age, doing all kinds of interesting and specialized occupations, whether they were training their replacements. Zero. No one. The decision was often not theirs; but they were also in the position to insist.
These are jobs where there are maybe 20 people in the country doing them; highly specialized, and highly critical. If these people aren’t doing their jobs the country grinds to a halt, and the people in policy positions have no idea that they even exist.
Covid was a very good reason to pull the pin and quit. Lots of these people did. It won’t take long for the consequences to become apparent.
Peter Zeihan told of a chat with an associate who began asking a few years ago in casual conversation with people he had business with “what percentage of people working in their various fields actually know what they are doing”.
Different industries with quite a lot of people responding – 15%
The attrition of expertise through retirement is frightening. The replacement younger people have not been drilled in fundamentals and have no accumulated tribal knowledge of their undertakings and are greatly screwing up. Case in point, the public health response to the Wu Flu. Another is energy management.
I guess “importing” illiterate/innumerate rapefugees from all those ‘Stan countries didn’t make Canada “stronger” like the propaganda said.
Probably the best comment posted so far.
Who’d a thunk getting continuously f’d over by a government that hates you, would be a dis-incentive to work.
I spoke too soon.
Haha
Me and the missus are just getting the final ducks in a row before we cash in our chips.
We’re looking at land in demographically agreeable areas…preferably in another country, refining our gardening skills, learning about preserves, chickens, goats, hogs and off ALL grid living. I figure the Bolsheviks will probably gut everyone’s pensions and savings so I’m not going to bank on those nest eggs. Can’t wait to go Galt.
Seven years ago I looked at the deductions to my public sector income ($115000) and realized that considering all the deductions, the difference between working and retirement was small. My workplace was becoming increasingly moribund with growing management numbers and stultifying political correctness. I cut them all loose at the first opportunity.
I kinda sorta retired a few years back.
Still get text messages asking me if I’m busy tomorrow.
Kinda like it this way.
I read an article about how they calculate the unemployment rate. Because of demographics (i.e., the baby boomers) all else being equal, the unemployment rate will fall because of the ratio of young (usually less employed) to old (more employed). This trend has lasted for over 30 years. And now the reverse will take hold. As more boomers retire, the unemployment rate will continue to go up for 2-3 decades. So, like inflation, look to the government to change how the unemployment rate is calculated to make the government look good.
I’m in the 55 and over cadre. Did a practice Covid retirement. Didn’t much enjoy it.
The phone rang in April and I took the call. 4 months later I’m back not enjoying work. So much management, so little being done.
Corporate socialism means everyone works but no one really works.
Welcome my soon to be retired brethren.
The grass is greener here, the liquor tastes better and you’ll sleep way better too.
The cherry on top is now being one of the lowest contributing tax slaves. Twinkle sox Blackface is no longer getting his full pound of flesh from this boy.
I remember sitting in meetings at Head Office, and the HR folks kept telling us store managers “you need a successorship plan”. It was a stupid comment, because not one manager in these meetings was in a position to have ANYTHING to do with who got their jobs when they left. It was never, at any time, part of their duties or responsibilities.
Being a union shop, all vacant positions were posted, and candidates could apply from within and without the public service. Store managers had zero say in the process.