Is Trump Playing 4D Chess with the Strait of Hormuz?

Historical Events Trump 46 Comments

Fascinating hypothesis – h/t Sooke + RN

46 Replies to “Is Trump Playing 4D Chess with the Strait of Hormuz?”

  1. The Arab countries that want to export oil, petrochemicals, and other goods can open the strait.

    That way they’ll have enough money to invest in the US.

    1. If the state still controls shipping in the strait, Trump hasn’t finished off anything. For an analogy it would be like the Americans claiming to have beaten the Japanese in WW2 except for the Japanese subs sinking US ships trying to get to Hawaii.

  2. The closing of the strait has driven up oil prices, and that is fueling inflation and slowing down the economy of the US. I doubt Trump wants either, especially with midterms a mere 7 months away.

    1. Compared Kalispell to Calgary.
      Kalispell works out to CA$1.39 litre
      Compared to Calgary at $1.65 litre
      I don’t believe Trump has a lot to worry about.

    2. I just drove across most of the USA … gasoline is no more than $4.29/gal. Everywhere except CA … and where I am now … in a highly populated city megalopolis … gasoline is $3.19/gal. Yes, it was sub $3.00/gal. before we started smashing the Iranian Theocracy to bits … overdue by 37 years.

      1. I drove from Calgary down into Mexico in January and back up from San Diego. On Interstate 80 west of Salt Lake City the lowest gas prices i saw were 1.73 gallon. It was a whole $16US to fill up my car. Average not California prices were in the $2.00 to $2.50 range along Interstate 15.

        California of course was rudely expensive.

  3. Plan A was to trigger regime collapse in Iran solely with a bombing campaign. That’s been a massive failure. There is no Plan B. Attempts to imagine a Plan B after the fact are wishful thinking. No naval force is going to put itself in the way of a missile barrage in a futile effort to escort tankers out of the Gulf, no matter how much anyone begs.

    1. Another commenter who believes they are Sun Tzu. Another commenter who believes they are privy to the on the ground intelligence the U.S. military has. Yeah, whatever.

    2. A massive failure? Really? By what measuring stick? That we haven’t yet killed every last crazed, bloodthirsty, US is the Great Satan, Muslim maggot? Patience … we’ll get it done.

      1. The average life span of the newest leader of Iran is about 18 hours. Massive failure.

    3. When was the last time your friend told you that you are stupid?
      It’s always best to stay quiet when, if you speak, you will be revealed as an idiot.

  4. The answer would be no, any 3 year old playing 1D checkers would be ahead of Trump. He had one job to become great, immigration and deportation, he won’t even be successful with that because of his idiocy on tariffs (increased taxes) and a new forever war. Those fights will also ruin his efforts on immigration.

    1. Oh boy…..another “expert”. I guess you have never heard of decision and risk analysis.

  5. So, I see that a couple of guys here are of the opinion that Trump doesn’t know what he is doing.

    1. “So, I see that a couple of guys here are of the opinion that Trump doesn’t know what he is doing.”

      Same one as always. TDS turns otherwise intelligent people into whiny toddlers.

      1. @Fred:
        Anybody who has listened to Trump during one of his many interviews, speeches and meetings and don’t conclude that he is a blithering blathering idiot and continue to support and defend him are themselves morons. The USA is doomed, too many dummkopfs. The ding dongs are destroying the USA something that it’s enemies over the last 250 years have been unable to do.

        1. Oh yes, yes, yes! America is doomed because we are all idiots! It’s true!

          Keep up the good work darling. Popcorn while we watch the show?

        2. “Anybody who has listened to Trump during one of his many interviews, speeches and meetings and don’t conclude that he is a blithering blathering idiot and continue to support and defend him are themselves morons.”

          Or he’s playing you like a fiddle.

          Pay no attention to what Trump says. Pay attention to what Trump DOES.

  6. One of Trump’s superpowers is to get opponents to underestimate him.
    That’s in full display here.

    1. @Political Junkie:
      So, let’s call Trump Stupid-Man, named after his superpower of sheer stupidity.

  7. Who needs to buy the oil the most and who needs to sell the oil the most?

    ‘Trump’ is not the answer to either question.
    He’s always said NATO and Europe should pull their own weight.
    What is the argument for the US opening the Strait for the people who need to buy the oil and for the people who need to sell the oil?
    Trump maybe be wrong in expecting rational behaviour from the oil producers and consumers.
    High oil prices means he can beat up California and force them to open land to oil production, same with Alaska and same with fraccing and new pipelines.
    The whole Green Nude Eel and anti oil movements look even stupider now.

    1. I imagine the price of oil in Atlantic Canada will rise to whatever the world price is. Not so much that they’re demanding a pipeline from Alberta through Quebec, maybe they’ll ask the federal gov’t for more help.

      1. Eastern Canada has to buy oil from the Gulf for multiple reasons; they have to pay the price for it. British Colombia is fortunate that it has Enbridge, but it only has Enbridge. You should probably keep an eye on it since you’ve imported some…very interesting people.

        And due to the financial, social, and geographic/geologic realities, that isn’t going to change anytime soon.
        Certainly not in time to ease any pressure on certain countries’ economic woes.

  8. The proof will be in the pudding … and frankly … I’m watching a master chef assemble the ingredients of a fantastic repast. I can almost taste the finished product…

  9. And BTW … there have sure been a LOT of military aged Muslim middle eastern men flow across Europe’s borders. Isn’t it time for them to return to their mother countries and defend the “Palestinian” flag they wave in our faces? Speaking of Trump and repatriation of illegal border hoppers.

    Time to start sending the Muzzies home. Esp. the wild eyed Iranian ones.

    1. It isn’t so much the Iranians, it’s the Iraqis (and Palestinians). Most of the Iranian diaspora come after the revolution or shortly thereafter — more than a few of them are disillusioned revolutionaries themselves. Well, nothing like prison, torture, oppression from the revolution you helped to create to teach one a lesson.
      But the IRGC relies heavily upon proxies, and the ones they have in Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine (and Yemen) are some of the most hardcore.
      And Bush and Obama let a lot of them into the country, and Canada has as well.

  10. The Strait of Hormuz is a problem for Europe, not the US. Time they got off their woke behinds.
    In June of 2022 (no war; Biden falling off his bicycle) the average US gas price was $1.05 a gallon more than it is today, while Biden constrained and over-regulated US production and refining.

    1. Europe only gets about 20% of its oil from the Gulf. So it is a problem, but not insurmountable.
      China gets 75% of its oil from Iran.
      Hormuz is a HUGE problem for China.

  11. I have been carefully taking note of the defeatists and snivelers lacking the spine to have faith in our First Citizen. If they expect to be invited to the unveiling of the new sculpture of Trump at Mt.Rushmore, they might find themselves stuck back in the cheap seats with the third rate catering.

  13. I Trump smarter than the average bear? Yes. Is Trump infallible? No. Has Trump encountered some unknown unknowns in the Iranian conflict? Probably. Will it derail the whole operation? I doubt it but, I think it’s too soon to tell.

    BTW, as far as I can tell, the biggest problem with Trump’s deportation strategy is the ramping up of new hires for ICE. My understanding is that the facilities used for training ICE agents are overwhelmed by the surge and so to compensate corners are being cut. This is going to put people’s lives at risk unnecessarily. It will also probably jeopardize prosecutions and deportations. Trump is right about closing the border and deporting illegals, but the execution appears flawed, probably due to a lack of in-depth information.

  14. Makes too much sense to ignore. Even if not a perfect summation, there’s enough there, there.

    Indeed, the US doesn’t need any ME oil. Europe knows that, and, their source of oil now is either ME, or, RUSSIA. LOL. Insufferable bastards.

    Meanwhile, the US and Israel keeps the IRGC at bay and producing new martyrs by the hour, at their behest. It all starts to make a lot more sense, and, explains the mystery around ground troops. Still, don’t discount the US taking control of as much Iranian oil as possible, much of it at Kharg Island. The death of a thousand cuts, strategy.

    1. “Makes too much sense to ignore. Even if not a perfect summation, there’s enough there, there.”

      Indeed. If all of those actions and occurrences are coincidental, it’s the most amazingly fortuitous grouping of coincidences ever.

    2. Russia is threatening to reduce or even halt oil and natural gas to Europe — multiple reasons for that.
      My President warned the Europeans to not be so reliant on Russian energy during his first term. They laughed at him.
      Sometimes life is hard.

      As for Iran, some interesting developments have happened just in the last 48 hours — new possibilities can lead to new crisis, but also new opportunities. We’ll see what happens.

  16. Let western Europe and China freeze in the dark.

    If the Euroscum want to keep the lights on, all they have to do is end sanctions on Russian oil and cut Zelensky loose.

  17. Speaking of checkers and 3-D chess, the commentators here are full of advice for Trump and yet know a smidgen of what Trump is aware of. Perhaps you should all sit back and think about Trump’s position here. Trump did not start this knowing that if it goes badly he will most likely lose in the mid-terms and as a result would no doubt be impeached. There is something much deeper involved in this conflict. Something that made him act in spite of the fact that he could lose the presidency. A week after the International Atomic Energy Commission convened in Oman, Israel and the US started a joint operation, a coincidence, perhaps, perhaps not. For the cost of the operation so far the US could have funded two refineries in America and processed all of the oil that could be extracted from North and South America. The Western Hemisphere would be impervious to Mid-East and Russian oil dependency. So why did Trump start this, sit back and give it some thought before you spout your ignorance for all to see.

    1. Agreed; those who claim to know the future are tiresome, actual Prophets being rare,
      deductible speculation is John Konrad’s stated position:

      … “the following political analysis is speculative, not saying Trump planned it
      but whether by design or adaptation he has the tools to exploit

      … “what is the endgame? Leverage, and you do not announce leverage, you apply it

      … “the US now controls the on/off switch for the Strait of Hormuz not through naval firepower, but through insurance

      and;

      … “the real threat is not $200 oil, it’s a fracture of the global pricing system into cheap energy in export nations and ruinous energy costs everywhere else, ie $2 oil in the Persian Gulf, $20 dollar oil in the Gulf of America, and $2000 oil in the UK

      already beginning;

      … The oil market has fragmented: oil is now trading for $150/bbl in Asia, China and India most pressured, meanwhile it is still $100 in the US.
      https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2034035587464761706
      Mar 17th 2026 _ The Huge Divergence In Global Oil Prices.

  18. FILTHY LIBERALS
    Trump knows USA produces more oil than the next 3 Nations.
    THIS IS THE ACE TRUMP HOLDS WITH THE SCUMBAG XI

    China cannot produce enough oil for their own country. (PAPER TIGER) They have 100 day supply. Their meeting won’t be friendly.
    Trump will tell XI his terms of surrender/cooperation and Trump already has the entire western Hemisphere AND the Strait under control.
    China is ASSHOLE

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