The Food Professor has some predictions for Canadian agricultural policy in 2026. Here’s hoping that we’ll see moves to either liberalize or end our supply mismanagement system.
Even if the United States has little genuine interest in exporting more dairy to Canada – and even if Canadian consumers show limited appetite for it – President Trump now understands, far better than during his first term, that supply management is a potent political wedge.
The system protects roughly 9,400 dairy farmers who exert disproportionate influence over agricultural policy, while compensation payments continue to flow without any meaningful reduction in production or market share. For a growing number of Canadians, this arrangement increasingly resembles a closed loop rather than a public good.
The Canadian dairy cartel is bad, but is ony the tip of the iceberg. Both the Canadian and US government have huge farm subsidizes that dwarf any benefit the cartel brings Canadian dairy producers. As an example, the US paid its farmers — directly and indireclty — around $45 billion in subsidies in 2025.
This puts the Turmp government in an awkward position when negotiating for the cartel’s dismantling, as everyone in the room will know how hypocritical it’ll be to claim the cartel is unfair.
As I said before, that’s what countervailing duties are for.
If it weren’t for the filthy dairy money we could have Max as CPC leader and prime minister.
He’s from K-bec.
You people will never learn.
Here’s a thought
If Trump knows how politically valuable this is to Canadian politicians, would it not be to his advantage to get just about any concessions he wants?
If it’s the hill Carney is forced to die on Trump can use it to end CUSMA and create a scenario where the only way to get market access to the US is to become part of the US. In such a scenario doing that would seem the path of least resistance instead of trying to preserve the status quo.
“If Trump knows how politically valuable this is to Canadian politicians, would it not be to his advantage to get just about any concessions he wants?”
That’s exactly what he will do…because he knows how to negotiate.
And any talk of farm subsidies (which both countries provide) as somehow being comparable to the Canadian dairy cartel are woefully misguided. The huge, obvious difference is that the farm subsidies are not designed to make the retail prices HIGHER for consumers, as our own ‘supply management’ clearly does. Ask a low-income Canadian family if they would rather pay the same prices for milk, cheese, eggs and chicken as the Americans do.
Or….just a thought….maybe economics isn’t all there is.
Aye, there’s also madness. And spleen.