This piece by Julius Ruechel is so good I’m republishing in its entirety, but do go give him a repost.
The “Canada First” response to decoupling with the 🇺🇸 is totally ridiculous once you dig beneath the surface.
Around 20% of Canada’s GDP comes from trade with the USA. So, here’s the problem with “decoupling”
1. Even if the regulatory hurdles could be cleared, it would take many years to build pipelines to BC coast to ship to China. In the meantime, you’re looking at DEPRESSION levels of economic contraction as we decouple from the US.
2. And do you think the militant environmental groups would play nice if Canada starts building pipelines to the coast? Net result. Social unrest.
3. And now you’re just replacing dependency on America with dependency on China. Nice. Who would you rather be entangled with? You think China wouldn’t demand concessions once Canada’s economy becomes dependent on them? Talk about jumping from the frying pan into the fire…
In this scenario China can buy from anyone, but Canada would collapse if China stops buying from us once we turn them into our new biggest customer. But there’s one difference… China won’t be inviting us to statehood inside their Empire as equals.
4. Oil and gas isn’t all we sell. But who are we going to sell our extra hydro to? Build a powerline to Greenland maybe? 🤣
5. And is the rest of the world lining up to buy our car parts? Especially if those car parts have to travel on a ship to get there ($$$)?
6. But Mark Carney and @PierrePoilievre have told us that we can save ourselves by removing internal trade barriers. Canada can be Canada’s largest trading parter to take up the slack (the @CPC_HQ even made a video about it). Who are they kidding?
Apart from the question of “why didn’t they do this years ago” if it was so obvious and easy…
Not only is the East not interested in Western oil (Quebec already said NO again to the Energy East Pipeline), but even if they were willing, Quebec’s market would only replace a fraction of the lost US market.
And does Canada need more Canadian car parts to take up the slack of what we would otherwise have sold to the US?
Can the Canadian internal market absorb all the extra hydropower from Quebec when producing more than we use?
7. Furthermore, as the rest of the country’s economy collapses and basically is forced to rely more on equalization payments from Alberta’s oil and gas revenue to China to pick up the slack, Alberta’s would go into revolt — constitutional crisis — and most likely would jump ship to join the USA.
The whole thing is stupid.
8. And what would it take to actually break down those “interprovincial barriers” that are allegedly Carney’s and Poilievre’s magic solution? Threatening to strip Quebec of the power to say NO to Eastern oil would instantly trigger a separatist referendum. A full blown constitutional crisis that tears apart Confederation. And then the fracturing provinces would probably start joining the US, one by one. Well played.
9. And stripping the powers of the provinces to manage interprovincial trade would require a constitutional amendment to redraw the relationship between Ottawa and the provinces. We know what that would look like — absolute chaos as everyone tries to write their special interests into the constitution. Heck, Harper couldn’t even reform the broken Senate over 10 years of trying.
And the provinces would go into revolt to preserve their authority — and the constitution can’t be changed without their consent. Checkmate🤣
The last two times anyone tried to reform our constitution (during the Meech Lake and Charlottetown Accords in the 80s and 90s), after trying for 3 years (Meech Lake) and 17 months (Charlottetown), both efforts died on the vine as special interests scuttled the process. Good luck trying again now.
10. Then there’s the issue of military defense. If we decouple from the US, we gotta start paying big bucks to build a military capable of fending off either China, Russia, or the USA, instead of freeloading off the US’s shadow.
Russia’s “go-it-alone” military gives a sense of what that would take. Canada and Russia both have similar-sized economies. Russia spends 5.9% of its GDP on its military defense. Canada currently only spends 1.3%. And Russia has nuclear as a backstop, we do not.
Can you imagine the social unrest if we had to bump military spending by that much, which has to be redirected from the welfare state or paid for by higher taxes (drawn from our already exhausted and overtaxed population)? That alone, without adding the impact of economic decoupling, would throw our economy into a Depression.
And imagine the reaction from the USA if Canada tries to either build its own nuclear weapons or put European ones on their doorstep! Never going to happen.
The reality is that, other than oil and gas, the rest of the world doesn’t need more of our stuff. If they did, we’d already be selling it to them. The rest of the world is simply too far away. And, after decades of poor decisions, we are defenseless without the goodwill of our southern neighbor.
We are a US satellite state, with all the benefits and drawbacks that this entails. Learn to get along.
Furthermore, if we tried to make up for a collapsing economy by selling more oil and gas to China, the US wouldn’t allow that kind of economic interdependency to emerge with its biggest global rival — that’s a clear violation of their Monroe Doctrine. The US has invaded many countries for less reasons (i.e. the Mexican-American War in 1846) to prevent another large hostile power from getting a toehold on the continent.
If we’re lucky, they’d just embargo us until we come to our senses, like they do to Cuba to contain the hostile ideology that’s brewing there. If we’re lucky…
In summary, “Canada First” is a ridiculous illusion — a lie — nothing more than empty posturing by Mark Carney, Pierre Poilievre, and all the other liars in Ottawa who are trying to bluff their way out of this mess and leverage this self-inflicted fake “tariff war” for political gain.
Still, it seems such a shame that you don’t have pipelines running to the western and eastern coasts. A missed opportunity, no doubt blocked by the international socialists over the years.
CabiDUH
Pipelines East to the Euro markets (as well as expanding Sarina). Pipelines West to the orient as well as west coast N and S America. Pipelines South to the great white satan. No one. Oils hold CanaDUH hostage.
CabiDUH
Pipelines East to the Euro markets (as well as expanding Sarina). Pipelines West to the orient as well as west coast N and S America. Pipelines South to the great white satan. No one. Oils hold CanaDUH hostage.
How long before the Liberal government of Canada, teams up with the ChiComs for national defense and security of Canada,,, against the U.S.A.
As Julius just said, EMBARGO. Yes, that’s a quick and easy US strategy to bring this country to its knees.
Two west coast ports, three east coast ports, plus block the St Lawrence seaway and the border. Air flights easily detoured by their F35 fleet.
Eezy Peezy.
tEaM cANaDa! Smart Like Truck!
That crossed my mind too. After all it wouldn’t much of a change for the Liberals they’d do well, and the people that vote for them- heck promise them shiny crap and a nice trip , life as it is. They’d be all in. The flags just a waving.
Not many questions asked really.
A long time, because China, unlike Canada isn’t that immature and stupid. He Xi’ can we be allies? I get back to you, 10 min, er, um decades.
People believing the Ottawa, lifetime insider, Polievre, is suddenly going to turn anything on it’s head is beyond funny. He’s part of the entire WEF/Laurentian/enabling culture that caused all of our problems. If it were not for all the staged little videos of him “asking the hard questions” or posing in an apple orchard, no one would have a clue who he is. He’s done nothing to warrant the job.
@IJ: Yes but at least he’s not WEF/Glozi. And Yes, he pisses me as well to no end with this oh-Canada-BS, especially because he did International Trade, FFS. He should know better. But he’s the best we have, he’s waay ahead of all the Blackies/Carneys/Jagmeets out there. And Bernier has no chance whatsoever.
Better than PeePee would be Trump 🙂
PP “is the best we have” is a depressing reality in this ridiculous country.
I agree with Indiana Jane. He is a tainted lifetime insider, made over to look buff and tough, sans his Skippy glasses, munching apples like a trained mule.
As for Max, he’s a big goofy voice in the Laurentian wilderness.
Danielle is the only real deal we have in this post national state.
Danielle is the only real deal we have in this post national state.
Do not trust DS any further than you can throw her. How many times do I have to repeat this…
Yes indeed, Pepe, supported by the WEF’s John Baird, Michele Rempel, and a handful of others that are in the service of Klaus.
Nothing to see here, move along now!
Yup, DanBC.
Baird and Rempel, shiny future leaders.
In another life, I actually had to meet with Rempel in her earlier days in an Albertan context. Porch climbing, power-suited douche. I hated it.
What PO’s me is how easily they got suckered. Stick to affordability, and Canada is broken, and the folks know it.
Brilliant essay.
Excellent use of the ‘listicle’ to bring the reader along.
A torpedo that’ll hit the HMS Trudeau midship, just below the waterline, hopefully sending the rats to the lifeboats.
I enjoyed the snarky, summary quips, too.
Well-crafted and well-aimed!
I have only one quibble on an excellent article. Our gas, in the form of LNG is very saleable to Asia and Europe.
There’s no business case for developing it.
Re Military and taxation: How many billions did Trudeau give Ukraine yesterday? How much since the war began?
4 years is not a forever friend.. Or enemy for that matter..
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Its a shame we have election jingoism messing up our negotiations with America.. I get it, its a popular position to run on.. 2/3rds of the people and 100% of the MSM are in fight mode..
But when the party is over.. Its going to be one hell of a 4 year hangover for whoever wins our next election..
I guess its better than lockdowns and being stuck with needles.. By a hair..
and after the 4 nasty years of Trump feeding tier 2 Canadians their knuckle sandwich, it’ll be President Vance delivering the “told you this for the past 4 years and you still haven’t figured out how to run a country?”
Kanukistans politicians are STUPID, almost as STUPID as the voters.
The Ottawa liars and Canadian “elites” will never suffer any consequences for their decisions.
None of the politicians capable of “leading” Canada to a responsible conclusion to the tariff problems have any idea of what to do about it. We are “led” by imbeciles, showing similar cowardice to when they said Covid would kill us all. Only now their cowardice will lead to a generation of economic depression.
All the rah-rah for Canada, and buying “Canadian made jam” in a grocery store isn’t likely to be welcomed by those who were marginalised by Canada’s political elite in the past 5 years. If they think we’ve forgotten, they’re consuming the same drugs as Chrystia Freeland and her recent nuclear response to the USA
They’re card carrying idiots.
Julius Ruechel’s X/Tweet above has far more questions than answers for the politicians.
Canada’s political class has given the type of response I’d expect from a grade 8 social studies class.
None of that response, is viable, none of it is actually helpful. I expect Canadians to lap it up like a captive dog to meat flavored dog treats which offer nothing useable to them in their time of need
Keep in mind, that Canada has in the past few years, accepted 2 million new residents who offer not much better than being able to sweep the floors or stock grocery shelves. They should be considered “dependents” by those who know how to do things and they’ll be a drag on the entire apparatus for the foreseeable future.
Are we led by imbeciles, or jingoistic charlatans?
This race sounds much more like several candidates with Little Big Man Syndrome, each of them trying to sound more outrageous and tougher than the other, cuz bAd OrAnGeMan!
I mean, nuclear weapons??? What, no Ray Guns?
The silly LIEberal race, and our upcoming election, will not reflect whatever deal is made with the US. This is just a race between sociopaths right now for the top job. Then, they will bend over backwards to reach agreement with TRUMP, because the alternative is as Julius outlined.
Economic Destruction of this country. That’s not leadership whatsoever. No, not even Marx Carney would do that, Freeland might given her outright evil nuttery.
In the meantime, get your yankee bucks now before the 60cent peso is the norm! This is the trial run for the next few months.
DanBC ….. “Are we led by imbeciles, or jingoistic charlatans?” ummm… commie traitors?
Embrace the power of the word “and.”
The really stupid thing is that Canada is going to the mats in defence of … drug cartels and marketing boards?
Summed up nicely. I like it. Clearly the average Canadian doesn’t want clean up our streets or attempt to have more affordable dairy products and poultry.
Don’t forget the Big 5 Banks and RoBellUs
How long has it been since the nice folks in BC tried to blow up above-ground pipeline hardware? I still remember it.
The only thing standing between Canadians and success is Canadians.
Are we sure that was Wiebo or was it the RCMP dirty tricks squad cosplaying as Wiebo?
Shorter version that can be applied to the current arrangement referred to as confederation
“Their plan works until they run out of other people’s money”
I’ll also repeat my contention that confederation was only created because the politicians in Upper and Lower Canada feared the US taking the entire continent.
The irony is all the points articulated in that essay could take place in short order.
No Canada won’t become the 51st
It will be ten new states and three new territories.
Perhaps Neil Young can perform at “Canada Aid” … and raise money for the Indigenous peoples who will ‘disproportionately’ suffer from the decoupling … he could play Cortez, nay …Trumpet’s the Killers.
https://youtu.be/uX9k9aoX6gk?si=lOvz9S714RmKoT3v
Maybe you could even get Joni Mitchell … although she’s partially mummified … to repeat a new term I just learned today.
Nah … Neil’s a bit too partially mummified himself … so you should get Doug Martsch of Built to Spill to stand in … he plays Cortez better than Young anyway …
https://youtu.be/TNOvqFISxIc?si=LtjILl8ws8HKLN64
Hey, Kenji, quit picking on our mummified musicians!
Kidding.
Neil is a goof, Joni is fading, but Rush will abide (even though they’re not my thing.)
Oh, and forgive the off topic ramble, but we should instill a new category here on SDA, called….
” Kenji’s Eclectic and Nostalgic Vinyl Musical Memories”
Kenji has been reminding us of why Wishbone Ash’s album, Argus, is underrated, and I agree. Even the cover photo is worth a look. Loved that album as a punk.
Here’s another underrated album from same circa….”the 12 dreams of Dr. Sardonicus” by Spirit.
Have a nice day, and excuse my ramble.
Totally on board with Spirit as a retro joy! And …”with a name like Randy California day was gonna come when I was gonna mourn ya” (apologies RHCP)
https://youtu.be/0eOHu0rMqMI?si=O7u4LFvHcBzYc39C
Check out Skunk Baxter in the background goin NUTZ on his guitar! Bunch of Hollywood punks havin fun in the 70’s, when … IMHO … life was so much better (except for the Nam.)
I miss all the music posts Kate used to post. But my tastes aren’t nearly as wide as hers … or don’t dip as deep into the genres she did. I’m just glad she indulges my topic-offing nonsense … although I TRY to tie it in somehow 😉
Oh yeah.
Kenji, did you know about Randy California and his Fabulous Twirlybirds? A fine post Spirit effort.
As for eclectic and Kate, that is cool and I could contribute.
Max Bernier would make an AWESOME governor of the Great State of West Canada.
Max is too lanky and goofy to be anything approaching the gravitas we require.
Why won’t Canadian politicians work with President Trump instead of lining up to fight him?
There is ONE leader of the free world, the US president. There are arguably only 3 leaders of the world, Trump, Putin and XI. The rest really have no say how things go, they just have to choose which one to support, take the Ukraine in the last few days.
Keir Starmer sure appears to be singing a new tune, since meeting with MY president
It’s show business Kenji. Herr Starmer is still a tyrant. He’s an accomplished two-faced POS.
Yeah … he’s sure to keep jailing every white native Brit who speaks their mind … and dares to speak the facts.
Julius’s poignant observation –
“ The reality is that, other than oil and gas, the rest of the world doesn’t need more of our stuff. If they did, we’d already be selling it to them. The rest of the world is simply too far away. And, after decades of poor decisions, we are defenseless without the goodwill of our southern neighbor.”
Sure- maybe he’s missing LNG and that there may be a “business case” for it (harken back to JT’s poor response to this awhile back) but really he’s right. Why aren’t we exporting all our amazing stuff elsewhere then? Riddle me that.
Yup.
I wish I could get out of this clown car.
Bernier has gravitas, he’s the only Canadian federal politician who stood up for our rights 2020-2022. PP was trying to avoid reporters and Erin Le Toole was openly collaborating.
Now, the intro to this discussion implies that we could be accepted into the united states as “equal partners.” (I infer this from the comment that China would not offer us this benefit).
I doubt this very much. Trump’s taunting suggestion alone invalidates it, who would offer 1/51 status to an entire nation of the same size containing the population of its largest states (in approximate terms)?
A serious offer would be five states and an assumption of Quebec independence makes it easy to visualize what those five new states would be. And as any American conservative will tell you, the last thing they want is four new liberal states and one new conservative state. There goes the electoral college forever.
But in terms of equality, do you really think we would be welcomed in as equals (or welcomed at all)? I don’t, and the events following any such merger (which won’t happen anyway, except possibly for Alberta) would quickly make us the new hispanics and blacks (we bring along lots of ethnicity anyway, as the magans would be quick to notice).
We’re better off to fix our mess, renegotiate what Trump finds problematic (they can’t sell their eggs here, but really, who’s going to pay same price for eggs trucked in from a long distance when farms an hour away produce them?)
I support about 90% of what Trump is doing, but he made a basic blunder on trade, it won’t work out as well as he has been told. And he should have kept this off the table until we had removed the Liberal-NDP coalition (dead in water before Jan 2025); instead, he tossed the Canadian left a lifeline. Did nobody in his circle realize this? Apparently not.
Anyway, we won in overtime so they have to become the eleventh province (eleventh? never).
How about a 100% confiscation tax on all US originating funding of ENGOs to help with getting pipelines and everything else built.
“We are a US satellite state, with all the benefits and drawbacks that this entails. Learn to get along.”.
Really hard to deny this. I think we need to rethink our response to Trump. I have been monitoring letters to the editor from outraged Canadians anxious to assert our distinctiveness from the US. It’s pitiful. They got nothing.
L – The Trump administration won’t negotiate with a proxy of the C.C.P. the Liberal Party of Canada. The Trudeau
regime is no longer a full or trusted partner in the Five Eyes shared security arrangement, for obvious reasons.
The pressure from his administration is to help us find the gonads to toss the Liberal/NDP Axis of evil into the
Marianna Trench or an active volcano. Or to squeeze them until we do. From there, a savy government can
negotiate to a preferred tariff status.
That is the best possible, as tariffs are the currency in The Art of the Deal, designed to provide a degree of
a balance between revenue and enough protection for America to re-develop it’s manufacturing base; which
needs to fend off China in a decade long strategy, to achieve America First. The timeline is ticking…
Besides, energy, potash, lithium and e.i. raising their calves and selling them back for auction, et al. The next
biggest item is turning over wanted Drug Cartel criminals and wanted terrorist cells. Of which we have a considerable number. Mexico is already doing this “DEA’s Most Wanted in U.S. Custody: Mexico Extradites
Dozens Amid Trump Trade Standoff” – The Bureau
Canada has a critical shortage of alpha male politicians and only one alpha female one in Alberta.
The only genius level move a Polievre gov’t. could make is appointing Max Bernier as Minister in
charge of negotiations with full authority. Why him:
1.He’s the only politician who didn’t bow to Trudeau’s Pandemic.
2.He was forced out of the “Conservative” Party of Canada for being too conservative. He’s not a Red Tory.
3.He’s closer to a Canadian version of “Make Canada(relatively) Great Again” then anyone else.
4.He’s the only Canadian politician to go to jail for opposing the Trudeau regime! That’s earned street cred in Trump’s XTeam’s eyes!
How likely is that to happen??? Slim to none.
Well, in Victor Davis Hanson’s “The Savior Generals” are only asked to serve when things are truly dire!
Eco-bots could be tamed simply by imposing sentences of a minimum of 10 years with no parole or early release. Mind you that would take a very strong leader at the helm and a judiciary that isn’t in bed with the left.