About that pipeline…

Keystone XL pipe, in 2011, that was never used. Photo by Brian Zinchuk

Trump calls once again for Keystone XL pipeline to be built

There is no project. There is no company behind it. TransCanada split into two companies. The team scattered to the winds. There is no pipe, and if there is any left, do not let it be put into the ground because it’ll be so rotten it’ll leak like a sieve. And there’s no one making pipe these days at Evraz, although such a project would surely be welcome there.

And why they hell would we lock even more into the American market at a forever discount? If we’re going to build pipe, build it to tidewater.

OR – is this they key to getting Trump to back off on tariffs?

61 Replies to “About that pipeline…”

  1. Originally, I don’t think Trump had all the facts on Canadian oil and gas or he wanted an even bigger discount.
    Tariffs on energy imports are idiocy.
    I would think increasing oil refining within Canada would be in Canada’s best interest.

    1. Refining in Canada would be like building furniture in Iqaluit.

      You first transport as close as possible to the end market. THEN you refine.

      Study after study shows the economics aren’t there for either refineries or upgraders. With the HA-YUGE caveat being everything else being equal.

      If we didn’t have a hostile federal government and were actually able to build pipelines to sell our products then the equation changes.

      1. Precisely. Everyone who says we should refine it here doesn’t know what they’re talking about.
        Crude oil is fundamentally stable. It’s been in that form literally 100 to 200 million years. The minute you refine it, it gets an expiry date. Ever hear of “bad gas?” That’s a fundamental reason why refining is typically done relatively close to end markets, or the ability to export to end markets easily and quickly. This is something never discussed.
        Also, it’s a hell of a lot easier to ship one product long distance than what, a dozen? Diesel, naptha, gasoline, LPG, jet fuel, kerosene, the list goes on….
        I like your building furniture in Nunavut point. I may steal that.

        1. Brian
          While I won’t question your expertise, The logic failure begins when you pull it from the ground, not once you have delivered it somewhere. The $ clock started when you pull it.
          Refine it here or refine it there, it’s in Canadas best interest to refine it rather than accept the commodity price.
          My commodity industry is building a Large mill that is going to require considerably more raw trucking than they figured on. “We’ll help pay for it with a savings in trucking”! What savings? They have destroyed the existing system, putting all the eggs in one basket (that is producing lower value output than existing plants to be shut down)
          Would have been much better to build a couple smaller units closer to the suppliers.

      2. Yeah … building a refinery in Ca is like building a refinery in CA … bloody insane. CA is busy trying to decommission our existing refineries, or at least sue them out of business. Trust me … Chevron has already moved MOST of their office employees OUT of CA … and will soon be closing their refining in CA.

        Go ahead Brian! Ship your oil to Hongcouver or to Toronto. Good luck with that. And good luck with the 300 Tides Foundation lawsuits. Hell! They’ll probably even resurrect Neil Young’s corpse to hold a protest concert … featuring noble, native, singer Buffy Ste. Marie.

        But given your terminal case of TDS … you’ll soon be putting a slug in your own head … symbolically. MAID in Canada seems to be a patriotic rally cry these days.

      1. You know there are a bunch of oil refineries in Canada, right?
        If you mean we can’t anymore, that very well may be true.

        1. Yes, where the users are. Once refined, most refined product must be moved by truck or in some cases rail, adding tremendously to it’s cost.

          1. Seems to make sense to refine locally, then can ship all the products to where they’re needed – likely in different areas – diesel, gas, resin, Red#40 etc. Rather than ship crude to a different area, where the products still need to be distributed. But then again I don’t know much about refining.

        2. I believe existing oil refineries was implied in my remarks. The refineries we already have are primarily for local consumption. Most of our exports are for US consumption. The US already has massive (and complex) refineries to handle our oil which is mostly heavy. Light oil (of which we have much less) does not require as much refinery complexity.

          Our oilsands oil accounts for most of western Canada’s oil, and the only real “refining” that makes sense to do in Canada is to dilute it so that it can flow in a pipeline. Where the economics make sense, it is upgraded to produce synthetic crude.

          Were we to actually refine heavy oil in Canada, we’d then need to deliver all of the products derived from it. And that would then cost a relative fortune. There’d be an argument for doing so if the refineries were built on the border close to a major metropolitan area. Or beside a port for export.

        3. Hey “buddy”, they’ve been decommissioning refineries in Canaduh, the actual number that exist are shrinking.
          The Lower Rainland and Island gets 40% of its supply from Cherry Pt WA. Because refineries in the general region have been shut down over the years. And good luck trying to build new ones, Gang Green has seen to it that layers of environmental rules prohibit new refineries. Imagine THAT getting cut off, or the brainiacs in Ottawa tariffing that onto BC drivers and airlines.
          SMART LIKE TRUCK. Our governments are beyond stupid, but we all know that.
          Do your homework first comrade.

          1. I might very well need to do some homework.
            But I don’t need to study to know that rude dickless fcks like yourself eventually get what’s owed them.

        4. There are very few refineries in operation in Canada today. Many local refineries were shut down when Petro Canada consolidated smaller companies. There were many in Montreal East and in Oakville that were shut down.

  2. Build both pipelines in my thinking ,Tidewater ,and Keystone
    And for sure make sure Gateway and Trans-Mountain are functioning!
    A little side note this Morning CTV had 22 stories on the Liberals ,3 on the NDP and not one on the Conservatives! A saying in Political science “Corruption of our Law Courts leads to the death of Democracy”! This can be transferred to Journalism in Canada!

  3. We need pipelines built in every direction, including the US. We needed them over a decade ago.

    And never forget that our real enemies are in Ottawa, and not Washington. The criminal POSs who purposely mis-rule us and who stop every facet of petroleum and coal development rely on people losing focus and buying into their anti-US BS.

    Trump is imposing tariffs BECAUSE of the actions of the criminal cabal in Ottawa. Because of THEIR involvement in the drug trade that THEY facilitate. Because of the population-replacing hordes of immigrants that THEY push.

    Don’t pretend that we’re part of any “team” that involves them.

  4. Who is a better friend to Alberta? Trump or the lower mainland/Quebec?

    Is the Gulf of America “tide water”?

  5. That’s the problem with pipelines. The deal is that we are going to give you product at a discount in return for stability of demand. But when the customer screws with that, all incentive for building a pipeline is gone. Same with Nordstream. Why, for what possible reason, would Russia agree to sell NG to Europe in volume at a discount ever again, when they have shown themselves to be worse than fickle, to be treacherous. Pay double for LNG Europe, and like it. Only China gets cheap pipeline gas. Well when Joe Biden killed Keystone —isn’t he the same guy who promised to kill Nordstream, and then it happened? Anyway, he killed it good and dead. Trump might be able to cow Canada into giving it another try, but one election goes the wrong way and kablooie! Unless Canada has no other way to sell it, it would be foolish to build Keystone.

    1. I’m US and I don’t see why anyone should count on the US portion of the on-again-off again-on again- off-again- on-again Keystone XL pipeline.

    2. After previous pipeline debacles in Canada what company would risk capital to undertake a pipeline project in Canada? Pipedreams!

  6. Efforts to restart Keystone XL are a bit like restarting the Energy East project or removing inter-provincial trade barriers. Too little, too late. We’ll be in such a deep recession by the time any of these projects can move ahead that the capital to fund them will be completely unavailable.

  7. There’s a better way. Trump calls for Canada to become the 51st state. In the end he “settles” for “a special economic zone” of most of BC, Alberta and Saskatchewan. Goods and services would flow freely across the border and interprovincial trade barriers surrounding the zone would be tweaked to accommodate American requirements.

  8. No more discounts for the USA.

    We can play hardball and hockey too.

    Trump knows that very few in Canada want to be a state.

    1. “We can play hardball and hockey too.” Hardball (baseball) is the number two sport in the US. Canada has 1 of the 30 MLB teams. Hockey is maybe the number four sport in the US in terms of viewership. The last time the Stanly Cup was won by a Canadian team was 32 years ago.

      “Trump knows that very few in Canada wants to be a state.” Great, very few in the US want Canada to be a state. It is called Trolling. Is this your first day on the internet?
      .

    2. The US could take Canada in a fortnight without a single shot. Just do to us what they did to Russia:

      Pull all American companies out.
      Harsh sanctions.
      No goods of any kind to enter Canada from the US.

      No more Timmies or any fast food restaurants, no more groceries, no Costco or Home Depot, you name it, all gone.

    3. ” … very few in Canada want to be a state.”

      That may, or may not, be true. But, tell me now, truly, how many Canadians can really play handball?

  9. Trump is now negotiating with the Russians for their Aluminum.
    That must make the smelters in Quebec a little nervous. They can no longer say that Trump needs Canadian aluminum.
    As I keep saying… DON’T underestimate Trump’s resolve. He always seems to have a Trump card (pardon the pun) up his sleave.
    I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump has something percolating in the background about Western Canada’s energy, that nobody knows about.

      1. Putin offered it to us. Along with other resources — they do produce a fair amount of potash, lumber, steel, and rare earth minerals (the area they control in Ukraine has a fair amount of it; this is of course their bargaining chip with regards to keeping that territory).
        Of course, this would not be a long term, large scale strategy for the U.S.(perhaps on some things, but not on all), but it could become very useful to us. We would be foolish to not at least consider where the Russians are going with this offer especially in light of our allies desire to place tariffs on us because we told them to fix their border security/drug cartels issues.

        1. I would also not count out a deal with Ukraine. They will likely come around. We’ll see.

      2. What makes no sense? Trump IS negotiating with the Russians for their Aluminum. Pretty clear enough.
        Trump is resolute. I Thought I spelled that out quite clearly.
        And why wouldn’t Trump want western energy? Pretty concise, n’est pas?
        Exactly what doesn’t make sense to you AllanS? I’ll be happy to spell it out for you, but apparently, you still think that the 2020 election was perfectly fine, so I’m not surprised that anything I said went over your head.

    1. That’s cute. The previous round of aluminum tariffs were because of “national security.” So now they’re going to buy Russian aluminum to build fighters out of?

      1. They bought Russian Titanium, though shell companies, to build SR-71 Blackbirds out of, back in the Cold War..

  10. It’s your country. Build your pipelines wherever you want.
    But whatever you decide will have consequences. Immediate and future ones. Choose carefully.

  11. What stage of completion is XL at already? The river crossings were done 15 years ago. Jason Kenney put billions into it as little as 5 years ago. On the Canadian side there is a lot of pipe in the ground. It might not take much to get it up and running?

  12. The discount of Canadian crude (Alberta Oilsands) into the US is due to manipulated supply & demand. Historically both the US and the Liberal Party of Canada prefer no other foreign markets be made available and that attitude will never change.

    Any Canadian conservative government will not be allowed to govern long enough for the enviro reviews to be completed.

    Canadians are puppets. Some have more pride in that than others.

    1. It’s not that simple. WCS takes more steps to refine, and not all refineries can take it. It’s not as simple as getting it to the coast and the price jumps to Brent or WTI.

    2. You are thinking small. Legislate new environment reviews. 4 month maximum, for appearances sake. Indigenous blocking? Notwithstanding. Go bold, like Trump, obstacle? D12. Next!

      LNG is where it is at in any case. Frac baby, frac. Ram a pipe to tidewater, sell it to india and China, they will take all we can produce. Thousands of high paying jobs, tons of revenue.

  13. The Canadian portion was completed years ago.
    The American portion doesn’t need Canadians.
    Q: What’s the discussion?
    A: Orange Man Bad.

    Fine reporting on Oil & Gas,
    but political instincts are saskatchewan-socialist.

    1. Some of the Canadian portion – like the 2 tanks in Hardisty – have to be replaced before using. Our portion is not turn key.

  14. If the province or independent country of Alberta invested a million or so to secure the permits and build 100 meters of pipe, 50 meters each side of the border and then cap it. Do it while Trump is in office and the major obstacle will be overcome. Having the permits and physical crossing in hand would make a call for expression of interest much more interesting and much much less risky. Completion in a pipeline friendly Alberta would be easy, Completion within an oil friendly US would be more difficulty only because of the length. So Mr Trump one signature to authorize one crossing.

    1. This was done years ago. A joint or two of pipe was installed at the border, connecting to nothing.

  15. Northern Gateway will never get built, the bush buggers will see to that, between protests and guerilla acts of destruction.
    Gateway needs to be built, it’s really the true test of whatever governments we have, are sincere.
    Yeah, I know, silly me for expecting their words have ANY truth, especially the LIEberals.

  16. I would go with “Or”.
    A functioning Keystone ties Western Canada even closer to the USA.
    What is the current state of the Keystone project?
    I had been lead to believe it was pretty much built,except for the border crossing..
    Brian,this is your speciality..
    What is the current Status?

    Your TDS seems to have clouded your reason.
    Trump is always up to something,it is what he does.
    I suspect it is hard to fathom his intent as he may not know yet..

    Trolling Canada was easy,perfect twofer.
    First he distracts from Washington politics.
    Second he gets to take pleasure in tormenting our “Proud feminist Fool”,hastening its departure.

    However,my read is even Trump’s advisors failed to realize how weak and dis-functional Canada actually had become.
    These squalling children who control Canadian Affairs,have shown levels of incompetence and arrogance unbeknown to competent people.
    Now Bad Orange Man has focused national attention upon our current state,it turns out we are even weaker and even more divided than any practical person would have first guessed

    Now?
    So many opportunities of benefit to the USA.
    Previously unsuspected opportunities.
    Never have conditions been so ripe,Canada so divided.
    And The USA did very little to create this situation.
    (One small caveat being the Progressive mingling of their Democrats our Liberals,complete with dark money flows).

    Should President Trump,or any later President, convince Western Canada to voluntarily join the USA..
    Western Canadians are very persuadable,after 10 years of Emperor Justine and his Children’s Crusade.
    That president will get its own mountain at Rushmore.
    Reflect on Donal J’s ego

    1. Not even close to being built. Far from it.

      If you read the story you would know only the Alberta portion and a few metres at the Canada US border were built. The Saskatchewan portion was not built, neither was any line pipe in the US.

  17. There’s a nice answer:

    1 – When biden et al cancelled the key permits for the keystone expansion the companies building and financing it sought compensation through the courts and through the processes defined under NAFTA and the subsequent can/US/mex agreement. They lost -not because they didn’t have a case, but because Ottawa intervened strongly to back the Biden side against western Canadian interests. Had the Keystone side been treated fairly they should have received around 14 billion USD in compensation.

    2 – the Biden era green new deal allocated about 875 Billion USD to green development in the US. Much of that is still unspent and either uncommitted or committed to projects/programs that will now be terminated. Pipelines are greener than railways or ships.

    3 – So Alberta and Sask can get together with the Bekken state governors (mainly Montana and North Dakota) to broker a deal: the US federal government lends the amount that should have been due in compensation (i.e. about $14 billion) to a new keystone owner/developer at market interest – but commits to forgiving the entire loan if (and only if) the project produces a commisionable pipeline by some early deadline like september 2026.

    4 – Carney will, of course, oppose this ..

  18. The US canceled the keystone period. All the losses of Investors and stakeholder including the Alberta Government paid back . Anything going forward Guaranteed by the US Government. They cancel again at their cost no one else.

  19. This is another concerning US action. Does Trump really believe that his continuous interference in Canadian politics will result in a Liberal government? The end goal being a 51st state called AlSask?
    The US has no interest in Quebec and Ontario. Oil gas and uranium are the resources they need.

  20. Kenney made a political decision to build. When the project didn’t proceed on the US side he sued under NAFTA. It didn’t work out.

  21. This Canadian ‘administration’, and the people who keep voting for it, has been catastrophic for Canadians. Time to move all my money out of Canada and into the US. The Canadian dollar was at parity around 2013/14 and then Castreau and his WEF minions appeared. We’re at 0.69 USD with no plan to improve it. On the contrary, all their plans are to tank it even further with economic suicide with the US. That was Trump’s biggest mistake, underestimating the stupidity of Sox to choose national destruction over border security.

  22. If I was negotiating on Canadian oil (as an American) my opening pitch would be “Look, we have lots of oil. We could always use more, but we have lots already and we can get oil anywhere. So what ya got?”.

  23. So lets see if I have this right.
    President Trump says”Lets build the Keystone Pipeline”.
    He is addressing an internal issue.
    If Americans want or can profit from accessing the Canadian Lines,sitting mostly complete and empty, they need to build the missing /cancelled lines.
    So an internal USA conversation.
    Why are we ranting about this?.
    Funny how memory works, I previously believed the problem /chokepoint was the border.
    Why is any presidential veto/blessing involved?
    Interstate commerce?

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