May the odds be ever in your favour.
New York Post- NASA’s odds of ‘city-killing’ asteroid hitting Earth just went up — the highest probability ever
Update: Kate asks Grok, “If asteroid YR4 2024 makes a direct hit on Ottawa, how wide would be the blast zone, outside of which one could expect to survive?”
If asteroid 2024 YR4 were to make a direct hit on Ottawa, the blast zone’s extent where survival would be possible would largely depend on several factors including the asteroid’s size, composition, speed, and the type of impact (airburst vs. ground impact). Here’s what the available information suggests:
Size and Composition: 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 40 to 100 meters wide. Its composition (rocky, stony, or metallic) affects how much of it would survive atmospheric entry and the nature of the impact.
Impact Energy: Given its potential size, speed, and assuming it’s mostly a rock-type asteroid, the impact could be compared to an explosion of 8 million tons of TNT or 500 times the power of the Hiroshima atomic bomb.
Blast Radius:
Direct blast damage could extend up to approximately 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the impact site. Within this radius, survival would be unlikely due to the immediate effects of the blast like shock waves, extreme heat, and possibly an airburst which could cause widespread destruction.
Beyond this immediate blast zone, the effects would diminish, but secondary effects like fires started by the heat, structural damage from shockwaves, and even potential tsunamis if impacting near water bodies would still be significant.
Survival Radius:
Outside of 50 kilometers: While you wouldn’t be in the direct blast zone, you could still face severe indirect effects like fires, secondary shockwaves, and atmospheric disturbances.
Beyond 80 kilometers: Here, the chances of survival increase significantly, but you would still need to contend with environmental effects like dust in the atmosphere, possibly affecting air quality and climate temporarily.Given these estimates:
For Ottawa: If 2024 YR4 struck Ottawa directly, one would likely need to be at least 80 kilometers away from the impact point to have a higher chance of survival, considering the immediate and secondary effects. This would place you outside of direct blast damage but still within an area where secondary effects could be significant.
Please note, these are rough estimates based on available data and should be taken with caution. The actual survival radius could vary based on many variables including the exact nature of the asteroid, the angle of impact, and local geography. Also, emergency preparedness, the effectiveness of evacuation plans, and the resilience of infrastructure would all play roles in real-world scenarios.
Thank you, it seems I am safe. Sorry about Ottawa.
Because We All Need Something Else to Worry About.
“Ever”…it would be interesting to know how they define that term.
It’s is malevolent of me to wonder if by 2032 it would be possible to aim it somewhere specific?
Probably. But anywhere but away from Earth is a mistake. Almost anywhere will cause enormous loss of life. Even in the South Pacific would produce huge tsunamis. Any perception that it had been aimed would produce war against whoever the elites decided to blame.
Better keep it on land where is can be a gift from the heavens!
Oddly enough Ottawa comes to mind.
Cool. We may get another “gulf of big assed asteroids”
Reminds me of Lucifer’s Hammer (although that was a comet), with odds of being hit increasing on a regular basis.
I just recently read that and yes, that was my thought.
Four comments and nobody has blamed Trump yet.
SDA is obviously a far right site.
I got a flat tire on my Jeep today. Trump knows what he did. I’m not going to rub it in his face.
I blame the climate crisis.
Can we select which city?
If it were to hit Ottawa.. That would be a lot of dead cats..
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That would be a real shame..
https://neal.fun/asteroid-launcher/ Here ya go. Line it up on Ottawa and play a bit. Enjoy!
Some examples of parameters from the past to help bound the fun. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ENlaDHDqvQtCImy-76gJbMXetss8_aUa/view
If Ottawa, the crater would become a lake with fish eventually, a much more productive use of the geography than now.
If we pay more taxes, we could divert the asteroid.
The Assteroid Tax.
I’m sure the bureaucrats have already been running it past the “spin doctors”…
With my luck … the asteroid would GROK itself into fragments when hitting the atmosphere and take out the entire East Bay …
Yeah… It’s gonna take some guiding, but it’s doable…!
I’d prefer hitting Melbourne myself, so long as we relocate my cousins, some friends, the Japanese teppanyaki place, the pancake parlours, and the planetarium and V.S.S.E.C. to safer areas…
Maybe, while we’re guiding it in, we can split it into smaller missiles for our more troublesome cesspits…! Lady Kate, V.O.W.G., Kenji-San, David and Robert, how are you at handling zero gee and claustrophobic spaces?!
What, me worry?
If anything at all incapacitated Ottawa it will be hard times for anyone living there. A truck horn can throw them right off. The rest of Canada, however, would flourish until it was rebuilt.