17 Replies to “Temporarily Unexpected”

  3. So can I offer a theory in the form of a question?

    If someone could depress the value of a stock or bond so they could buy it up at the lower price because they had insider information, why would they do it?

      1. Oh I got that.
        But to what purpose would some one try to convince investors to dump an investment only to buy up those bonds at the depressed price knowing the value is about to rebound?
        Cough*gamestop*cough

  4. A slowdown in the COVID recovery? Possible short-term recession? But the big recession is still 2-3 years away (2024). 70% drop in the stock market.

  5. In 30 years … will there even be a USA? Certainly it won’t resemble anything like its economic heyday. The USA will have been completely “transformed” by then. It will become the worst of the debtor Nations, owing 5x their annual GDP to the ChiComs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YXkiiek0pM

    Oh ! And the Yuan will have become the world’s currency by then. Nuclear holocaust? Nah, the ChiComs will want to keep us around … as THEIR slave labor … making the shit THEIR people make today. Yes, the world will become completely inverted. The Democrats will have utterly destroyed it all. Good job y’all

    1. Have a friend. Gathering cash, awaiting financial fireworks. Biden has three more years. Boy blunder is our installed court jester.
      Once it starts, as sentiment changes, all news now bad news, it cascades through the entire economy fueled by relentless negativity.

      The tech crunch didn’t happen just one day. Nortel didn’t collapse in one day. We have a Nortel economy, held up by debt, getting away from voice communications (with we the people) and cheap buyouts of shareholders in one case, of oblivious voters in the other.

      Canada and the free world is trading liberty to end up as penny stocks, indeed penny ante players in the new Chinese World Order.

      Did anyone doubt they would crush Hong Kong democracy? Does anyone doubt they’d invade Taiwan if they thought they could get away with it, in my view around 50% and growing. Do the useful idiots and their IYI cousins think the gravy chain across the Pacific will continue after China acquires her political, economic and military leverage?

      No they’ll disappear $billions from balance sheets, university funding and “foundations” as we send them coal and they send us wind turbines, the utter duplicity, hypocrisy and corruption of the green diseconomy hiding in plain sight from the populace.

      Hopefully, it will not happen, for two reasons. The Chinese command economy is already showing its irredeemable faults, trying to plan the behaviour of an entire society at the point of a gun. When has a command economy ever matched buyer and seller?

      When has it not been a morass of corruption, despite suppression and repressions, with laws applying to little people and foreigners?

      Secondly, there are still some, for now, people with parts who will take on China, unlike the co-opted DeMarxist self-installed fools.

      The military presence in the Taiwan Strait of US forces, buttressed by the Royal Navy is somewhat encouraging, but the appeasers undoing Trump peace could change that any time in response to increased Xi belligerence and intimidating defaults to diplomacy.

      Was talking with a neighbour just back from China after two years working there. Hint: this was a guy you could actually have a science discussion on climate change. I quipped, more like threw out some line when we got talking about China, saying they want to take over the world. He stood there motionless for a second or two, looked me right in the eye and said “that’s exactly what they want to do.”

      We are but pawns in that scheme. But the fly in the ointment is that giant US market which would derail them if denied its access.

      Then again with the Western weaklings presently endangering us, we could have the first imperialist war for markets, but this time to force people to buy your products, not the other way around. Lenin would be so confused, Stalin would murder someone and Marx would still be Marx, totally out of touch with humans or their psychology. I watch the Rifleman so I know they had psychologists then.

  6. In any economy as underpinned as ours with so many players borrowing short term to lend long term, an inversion of the yield curve is deadly.

    1. The delta doesn’t matters. An inverted yield curve matters because of what it signifies. A recession is coming. And on top of that, higher interest rates. This is all very bad.

    2. “real rate of return is currently negative”

      2% interest with 20% inflation. Investors are taking it up the backside. Rich people in shithole countries invest in real estate, gold, or things that appreciate. They never hold more cash than they need in the short term.

  8. Soon, Venezuelans will point to us as a warning of what happens when the sheeple only care about the fake free stuff and fake security.

  9. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gibsonsparadox.asp
    You may be seeing a rotation out of 30 year bonds. Maybe some of this is buying renminbi to shore up Evergrande. The rest is going somewhere else.

    Depending on your view of the eurodollar market, the global economy may be slowing, resulting money rushing into USD (Safe haven). It’s not going into bonds. The USD may rise.

    Canada, Britain and Australia are signaling rate hikes to protect their currency.

    Basically that means USD sloshing around in the US stock market. Good Times?

    1. Rising short term rates are the opposite: rotating OUT of short term risk, and net INTO long term debt. Can you say ‘deflation risk’?

      Yields rise BECAUSE no one wants to buy them at current levels. No one wants to lend Uncle Sam money at low rates in the short term right now. It doesn’t matter what the Feds set the benchmark rate at. If people aren’t buying Fed debt, the Fed must sweeten the deal.

      On the other hand, you could be seeing rotation into commodities, stocks, etc.

      I still think the majority of Americans are in stocks for their rainy day funds, and if they have just been let go from a job for being unvaxxed, are they not about to begin liquidating the portfolio to raise cash to tide them over?

  11. I’m pretty sure this has happened before. Of course I was much younger, arguably better looking, and of course a democrat was in the white house. So it’s more like a reoccurring disaster that bad policy can create.

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