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And by “front runners and “more clear” I’m sure you’re referring to Trump… amirite?
Because I haven’t heard a lot from the other “front runner” other than how she’s about to be interviewed by the FBI and Bernie is being mean to her and oh yeah, she’s really really super serious about opening up the file on Area 51.
You know? Those things which matter to most people.
On the plus side… predictions have been terrible recently so we’ll see.
I think the Trump approach may be effective overall (I’ve read way too much Scott Adams to discount Trump’s chances) but if they’re going to kick him off the island, I wish it was before the primaries are decided.
Virtually all the pundits have been wrong about Donald Trump’s his chances of doing this, that, or something else.
I suspect that Larry Sabato is wrong here, too.
Secondly, Larry Sabato does NOT like Donald Trump AT ALL. So, his glee at the possibility of seeing the very likely nominee for the Republican Party being possibly beaten by an incompetent and dangerous nincompoop (i.e., Hillary Clinton) is on full display in this article.
Awoke with a thought this morning about the alleged battery charge against Trumps manager. A good description of the coverage of this by the media would be Trumped up – as with just about anything remotely negative he says or does.
If the term “Trumped up” had never existed, it would be now be coined as such based on the medias treatment of anything Trump.
He should really play to this on his twitter: “the way the media trumps up charges against me on a regular basis, I ought to charge them a royalty”
Hey, I find the whole US presidential election process utterly byzantine and confusing as hell.
It also doesn’t help matters that they’ve completely reversed the traditional political colour spectrum with the Republicans taking red and the Democrats blue.
Trump has NY @ 58% and will sweep the East coast in the General.. Virginia, Ohio, Florida…The traditional GOP count is meaningless… Better to look at Trump like an INDEPENDANT and where Hard Core Republicans GO doesn’t matter (He is running against them in GOP Primaries & winning)….The Independents & traditional fence sitting Democrats..Plus Sanders Youth are natural votes for Trump…
The mistake would be if Republicans go with Cruz & then the Map would default to the historical probability… as posted
It is the F&&king Establishment of BOTH parties that will be rejected in the General
Yup polls really are important, that is why Tom MaClaire is Canada’s Prime Minister.
Oh wait, some under achieving drug smoking, pretty boy with a famous (to Liberals) name won.
Strange how all these same experts wrote Trump off at the beginning of this process.
Let the polls tell you how to be, politically correctly.
His abortion flip-flop yesterday I think marks the beginning of Trump’s end as a viable general election candidate; yes, even against the detestable Hillary Clinton. I have no faith that Americans won’t put that contemptible creature in the White House, and conclude their rapid descent into banana-republic status. They’re no better than Latin Americans now, electing family members of former presidents to succeed them (at least George W was infinitely better suited to the presidency than either Clinton).
Hell, Americans reelected that nitwit Obama, and we just put the mother of all nitwits into 24 Sussex, so why do we think November’s outcome is going to be any different?
sorry to piss on your parade, But Wanking \willy was as good or better that Bible Banging Bush, just that he was mostly occupied with a case of liplock on his willy. Much higher IQ than Bush, has an photographic memory, and was (needed to be) “flexible”. Bush was to locked into him ideology (religion). Bush has a better moral character, and he was ( and still is) actually more comcerned about the well being of his constituents, but that does not translate into a better “president”.
Does anybody actually “like” Donald Trump? I can see that some people may respect him because he’s made a lot of money (but do they respect the Koch brothers, or George Soros, Tom Steyer, or other rich people?). I can see that some people like that he repels people that *they* don’t like (like the media, academics, Mitt Romney, etc.). I can see that some people like the beverage room braggadocio that promises that he will build a wall and make Mexico pay for it and all of the other promises that are likely not serious nor achievable but sound really good when one’s blood is up. But *like* him?
And the thought that Sanders supporters will turn to Trump is laughable. I’d be surprised if anyone could identify as many as 100 Sanders voters who would choose Trump.
JJM:
Thanks to leftist media.
Blue is associated with calm, intelligent, cerebral, etc. – i.e. the “brains”.
Red is associated with anger, emotional, physical, etc. – i.e. the “jocks”.
Not to mention the Communist angle…
Shows what happens when the GOP lets the enemy define the terms.
Make America Great……again
Hillary’s gonna “make it hole”.
…and Huma will be right there waiting.
On a different note, did anyone else notice that the states predicted to go Republican are all the producer states while all the Democrat states are the takers?
I didn’t go looking to support my thought with facts, it’s just a feeling I get when looking at the map.
Thoughts?
As much as I hate to admit it, I think you are right. The abortion question by the tingly-leg Matthews was a Gotcha styled question. The educational system and the media have done their work of demoralizing the people well, in the US, as well as in Canada. The US seems to have slid into what is the beginning of a post-republic such as Rome did after 48 B.C.
Yes, the colours are backwards. Red, as well as black, is traditionally associated with the radical left.
Philip, “It is the F&&king Establishment of BOTH parties that will be rejected in the General.” Hopefully you are right, as it looks like a toss up in the General at this point. Maybe a dose of the radical left will finally wake up the people. And, maybe, Trump, supported by the Tea Party movement, will give a real bloody nose to the establishment so that they get people in that listen to the people and work for them rather than their Democrat buddies.
Carl Rove: if the whole world turns against Trump, he’ll lose. His magic whiteboard says so: there are more “non Trump” than Trump delegates, and if we go 50:50 from here, then anybody but Trump, who will all coalesce at convention against him for the universally disliked Cruz, because Donald’s support is again at a ceiling. Carl should do the actual math as we head into winner take all states like California and 50%WTA New York. Here’s the facts Carl:
– barring lowering of Trump support in upcoming primaries, he will win the required 1237 by convention.
– Cruz must win Wisconsin or he’s dead, but it looks like he will win to forestall the inevitable.
– even so, Trump clinches it in California in June. Love him hate him, he’ll win; get over it. Perfection can’t become the enemy of the good.
– Trump needs to maintain delegate percentages going forward, around 52%; Cruz needs 84%; and Kasich, 147% (just kidding).
– if by chance this goes to open convention, Trump still wins on first ballot, despite Rove’s fantasies that no withdrawn candidate delegates vote to Trump.
– possible shenanigans: Rubio re-enters to hold his delegates on the first ballot; so he or Kasich dropped from second if no majority. Most delegates are free agents then but will likely stick with their first ballot choice, so around 200 or so delegates available. Trump still wins.
– the only possible way to stop him is to usurp the voters by nullifying their delegates, and bringing in a brokered choice, like Paul Ryan.
IOW incinerate the party, threaten a takeover, split it in a way that would make the Reagan delegates walkout of 1976 seem like a love in, and still end up with Trump whom they have thus helped to mortally wound. Even at this point the GOP establishment crybabies for Cruz have likely already lost the POTUS race. How can the electorate be expected to support a bunch who cannot get their party act together? No worries for the donor-centric GOP establishment, their path to the trough remains unblocked even with a Hillary win as they enter the political wilderness:
“White Middle Americans express heavy mistrust of every institution in American society: not only government, but corporations, unions, even the political party they typically vote for—the Republican Party of Romney, Ryan, and McConnell, which they despise as a sad crew of weaklings and sellouts. They are pissed off. And when Donald Trump came along, they were the people who told the pollsters, “That’s my guy.”
They aren’t necessarily superconservative. They often don’t think in ideological terms at all. But they do strongly feel that life in this country used to be better for people like them—and they want that older country back.”
These populists seek to defend what the French call “acquired rights”—health care, pensions, and other programs that benefit older people—against bankers and technocrats who endlessly demand austerity; against migrants who make new claims and challenge accustomed ways; against a globalized market that depresses wages and benefits. In the United States, they lean Republican because they fear the Democrats want to take from them and redistribute to Americans who are newer, poorer, and in their view less deserving—to “spread the wealth around,” in candidate Barack Obama’s words to “Joe the Plumber” back in 2008. Yet they have come to fear more and more strongly that their party does not have their best interests at heart.”
Republicans eating their own; comme d’habitude. Conservatives here do it too. We all end up with unenlightened despots addicted to statist privilege.
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/01/the-great-republican-revolt/419118/
I agree. Although a few producer states like Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, and Illinois seem to buck that trend. They must have big free lunch city populations.
“Carl Rove: if the whole world turns against Trump, he’ll lose” Shamrock
The Carl Rove I know advised GW Bush, badly…He let the media destroy GW.. and Bush ran away from the WH.. Rove is a giant in his own sick mind & an invention of the media
The Jelly Bean, Kasich is Rove’s boy….Soft in the head with multiple personalities
The Las-Vegas odds makers don’t think that Carl will make it to Cleveland.. Make a bet
Trump has a less than 20% chance of winning the nomination. Cruz about 65% and kasich or someone else 15-20%.
IT WILL be a contested convention – trump cannot win enough delegates. He loses on the first ballot and then either criz wins outright in the second or someone else wins on the third or the fourth.
as for the map – there are only three states that matter – CO, FL and OH. Tht GOP has to won those three. I think CO and FL are already in the bag with only OH in doubt – say hello to kasich on the ticket.
IF Ohio looks to be winnable without kasich look for a Cruz/Haley ticket that puts WI, MI, PA, NM and OR in play for the GOP.
This of course assumes that Trump is wise and does not run third party.
I agree with burton (1st comment). Let us see what happens with Hillary before we start making predictions. Many other things may yet happen as well. Yogi Berra said it best…..you all know the line.
Cruz is not universally disliked in the GOP. Far Far from it. Outside the beltway he is respected and liked an admired by many and has worked hard with many local campaigns over the years – that explains a lot why he does so well in causus states compared to primary states.
Where he is detested is inside the beltway because he threatens to tear down the crony system – just consider what his simplified tax system would do to the tax accountants and lawyers billings. and his replacemnet of obamacare with a deregulated system and health spending accounts and the removal of the corporate deduction would cost the insurecos hundreds of billions.
You may be right, but I disagree. If one goes primary for primary, considering the local winner take all, nearly WTA and proportional delegate distribution rules, Trump gets the required delegates prior to convention except for the no brainer than his support suddenly stops. Unless and until that happens he wins. How could Kasich ever win? Trumps gets all the California and New York votes. Trump must lose California to lose the nomination. Period. Trump needs 500 more delegates from the 950 odd left, plus the unbounded other candidates’ about 200 or so, if Rubio in that mix. If outside of it, then yes, there is a hail Mary three point with foul jump shot from the opposite foul line.
Here’s a website to see for yourself, go ahead and do the math, without assuming Trump is suddenly going to lose supporters, a no brainer for him losing:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html
If Cruz wins, Hillary pummels him easily. She’ll play the victim and he won’t be able to respond, while Trump would sense this as weakness and move in for the kill. All Trump’s negatives would immediately be put upon Cruz, who will now be a sexist misogynist bigot who beats and fools around on his wife; count on that too. There’s lots of policy holes for Cruz to be trapped on. The new Trump voters will stay home because he was denied the nomination millions of votes and hundreds of delegates ahead going into convention. This division is the decisive factor that defeats the GOP for POTUS.
As I said, it’s likely the GOP establishment has already precluded a Republican president in 2016.
If Hillary becomes President, the USA will never recover.
8 years of Obama and 8 years of Hillary will be what historians in the future will describe as what took the USA to the tipping point, the point of no return.
Trump is the only one who isn’t a puppet to the New World Order fascists running both of these despicable parties. If they off Trump one way or another, the only thing that’ll change is what is shown at 1:05 of this video.
http://www.heliofant.com/index.html
California (and I think ny) are not statewide winner take all. Each district is wta for three delegates and just 18 wta statewide. Some districts are comically small GOP voters and perhaps only a couple hundred votes gets the three delegates. And Cruz and trump are neck and neck in polling. As its a closed primary that likely means Cruz is in the lead and will carry 60%!of the delegates and thus prevent trump for getting a majority.
My handicap right now has trump getting 1100 Cruz 950 kasic 250 plus or minus 5%.
On the plus side – pat yourselves on the back Conservatives – we’ve allowed the left to drive a nifty wedge right smack down the middle of the party.
nope, the GOP did it to themselves. And if Cruz keeps banging on his bible and wins the nomination, watch a lot of Trump supporters, and any Dems who would vote for Trump, stay home. Cruz needs more than the “church” vote, and it’s doubtful he has all of that. I think this is going to be one of the more studied elections ever,once it’s over.
@burton Lefties are incapable of driving a wedge into anything. They merely veg on the sidelines in a Kool-Aid induced coma while Conservatives self destruct all on their own.
Cruz gets 487 of remaining 947? Trump 337? No chance of that imho. The Cruz pattern is to go all in to win one state, then lose the next five. Kasich isn’t a player and shouldn’t even be in the race, but this benefits Trump more than Cruz.
Even so, in open convention, Trump needs 137 of 184 remaining (assuming no Rubio BS re-entering or GOP establishment shenanigans) to win outright on first ballot. Now on second ballot Kasich is out, so Trump must get less than 137 of 434? Nope.
California and Wisconsin are winner take all at the congressional district level, so assuming a plurality across the state nets virtually all delegates. 100% of California delegates are unallocated before the primary. Trump is about 10% ahead of Cruz in California; the math is easy from there. New York is WTA once 50% reached in congressional districts, so Trump gets them all. Cruz must, must win California big to have any chance of overtaking Trump; that’s not in the cards right now.
If you are in the Victoria area, let’s make a friendly bet, maybe the closest gets a free lunch. I’ve seen your primaries prediction, here’s mine Assuming only the usual Trump dumb remarks going forward and nothing more major than his abortion faux pas:
Trump-1286 (wins nomination even Carl Rove accepts that); Cruz-783; Kasich-220; Others 184.
As I’ve stated the GOP establishment has already ensured no GOP candidate will win POTUS in 2016.
The State of Wisconsin is not a Bell ringer, they are as contrarian as WV.. if you know what I mean.
BTW: If a women is having multiple Abortions in order to sell the body parts.. should she be prosecuted?
Go through the electoral map and that’s what you come up with. Very few states – ny nj and wv are the only likely trump wins from here on.
I love how they say it is impossible for trump to win no matter what yes republicans BECAUSE of trump have been turning out to vote FOR trump in DROVES!!!! look for yourself!!
It’s truly amazing how NME666 is so fixated on something he doesn’t beleive exists. He is extremely angry and frustrated by a book that means nothing to him. such a waste of life and time NME666 pick up another hobby bud . God gave you free will and this is how you choose to use it ? hmmmm seems odd. You bash the very God that gave you the very ability to do so …and not to mention he told us all that would be exactly what we did …lol . He has got you pegged buddy!!
The Dems win and the US continues towards being a low IQ third country as the invasion continues.
And, of course, Canada being Canada will follow close behind.
Oh how our grandchildren will curse us. How did they let it happen they’ll cry. But it will be too late.
“Thanks to leftist media.
Blue is associated with calm, intelligent, cerebral, etc. – i.e. the “brains”.
Red is associated with anger, emotional, physical, etc. – i.e. the “jocks”.
Not to mention the Communist angle…
Shows what happens when the GOP lets the enemy define the terms.”
Yes. That’s the reason today’s GOP is the biggest clown car to pull into town in the past century. Colour-coding by the media.
Everything to the nitwit NME666 is a religious discussion – he is the epitome of the word idiot.
I’ll bet my last dollar he doesn’t even come close to beaking off to a muslim, christian, jew, sikh, etc face to face … he’s to much of a coward.
“Trump is the only one who isn’t a puppet to the New World Order”
Pretend for one second, that Trump isn’t a puppet, but was a born pledge-shoe-in of the New World Order because of his trust fund wealth and a deal his father made, just like Zoolander is.
Why then, would Donald be an adversary of the New World Order if that were the case?
What does ‘the Donald’ get for bucking the NWO and siding with the masses?
Is he one of us? And if so then why is that so?
Everything I’ve seen says to me that Donald Trump is one of the Elites, not one of us.
JMO and I’m truly asking those questions…
I think people are being blindsided. Donald Trump is a stalking horse for the Leftist Elites and I’ve said that from the beginning.
Exactly. Historically, once the slide has gone too far it is too late to turn it back. It now has its own momentum. Society seems to want a Cuba or Venezuela north and it also appears they shall have it.
It took Russia seventy years to throw off the soviet socialist shackles and after twenty-five years they are still suffering, now under a dictator. The Russian people only ever had a real democracy for nine months of their countries history. Their standard of living has improved considerably since 1990, but on average are decades behind us.
And, we are throwing away an eight hundred year liberal democratic experiment for a utopia that does not exist, cannot exist, and never has.
“Everything I’ve seen says to me that Donald Trump is one of the Elites, not one of us.”
Exactly, who do you believe, is “one of us” running as a leader in any country? Give your head a shake … it’s become “less like them” appeal.
Except in Canada … we’re way hip now.
Summing up Ted Cruz: “Barack Obama, without the cunning”.
Yup, letting the media set the tone.
They are not even subtle anymore.
Seriously Red is the Progressives natural colour, red for debt and blood.
If there were fiscally conservative republicans they should chose black, the media would love it as they could represent the GOP as the all devouring blob.
The point of these polls and geographical presentations is to convince voters that their vote does not matter.
That it is inevitable that the medias choice will dominate, nothing you dumb voters can do.
The Guild Of parasites owns you.
Latest meme,Trump repels women,whatever,whatever,divide and conquer.
Same “experts” who told us “Trump is finished..this time”.
Trump can still throw the presidency away, his worst mistake would be to get too close to the current leadership.
Or to start taking the advice of these policy advisers.
This may not be the election cycle but after Trump I am pretty sure an independent will run and win.
The campaign slogan being;”A pox on all your houses”.
“Exactly, who do you believe, is “one of us” running as a leader in any country? Give your head a shake … it’s become “less like them” appeal.”
Yeah, see you missed that statement was in answer to Blame Crashes’ assertion that,
“Trump is the only one who isn’t a puppet to the New World Order”.
I didn’t say that any of the politicians were “one of us”, I was stating that Trump wasn’t.
To turn my statement to Blame Crash on it’s head and pretend that it was my meaning that there was a politician who was one of us is a straw man entirely of your own construction.
I read that Australia is the #1 destination for disgruntled European millionaires. I believe it is time I considered fleeing this formerly great country. We’ve become outnumbered by the flotsam and jetsam of the third world (and our own Universities).
I’m not sure, Larry either needs to go on medication or stop taking whatever is doing his brain in.
Latest meme,Trump repels women,whatever,whatever,divide and conquer.
Same “experts” who told us “Trump is finished..this time”.
The test of that BS poll is that the “same” Women are MISSING from Hillary’s numbers… It would be normal for ALL women to question Donald Trump because he does not FIT the usual politician & the media has ruthlessly trashed him.
The FOX Meghan Kelly started the theme by ambush journalism in the first debate, Fox should have removed her from political commentary after that episode, but no she pushes the anti-trump feminist POV.. The three most common Media examples are Kelly, Carly, and now Heidi Cruz …all political operatives & issues created by the Media. (Heidi was educated in Brussels, do you think she has radicalized (NWO) Ted)
BTW: Meghan Kelly & Nancy Grace are both Ambush journalists.. Nancy was sued over a suicide and might of changed her ways.. When is Fox going to avoid their Meghan liability…She is a freak
Fox Greta stated correctly that the women Journalists, ~8 that demanded that Trump fire his campaign manager, be banned from covering any 2016 political issues. Greta gets it..
JMHO
Greta gets it. Carl Rove doesn’t; hasn’t he saved enough for retirement?
I think Carl just channeled his magic whiteboard, now the seer tells him it’s Trump or Cruz.
“Karl Rove: Scrap Trump, Cruz, Kasich and Go With a ‘Fresh Face'”
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/karl-rove-GOP-fresh-face-presidential/2016/04/01/id/721835/?ns_mail_uid=64013677&ns_mail_job=1662106_04012016&s=al&dkt_nbr=dwwyiuwe
Pure garbage. Rove, his accomplice Romney, along with the other suicide pact idiots have stuck their nose into the process, trying to cajole or intimidate people away from Cruz before, now Trump. Given the fracture they’ve caused, he proposes to blow it wide open by negating not only delegates, but millions of voters, in favour of a beauteous beltway blunderer. In doing so they ignore potential new voters and populist will for a leader not beholden to GOP financiers, while at the same time giving the most establishment candidate of all a free trip to the White House and likely too control of Congress.
Yeah, blow up the place then offer to fix the damage by setting off a political nuke. Real smart.