Celebrated Physicist Calls IPCC Summary ‘Deeply Unscientific’
“The way the [Summary for Policymakers released by the IPCC] deals with uncertainties (e.g. claiming something is 95% certain) is shocking and deeply unscientific. For a scientist, this simple fact is sufficient to throw discredit on the whole summary. The SPM gives the wrong idea that one can quantify precisely our confidence in the [climate] model predictions, which is far from being the case.”
Read the whole thing.
The article is obviously and precisely correct. However it still involves an appeal to authority –
“my authority is better than your authority” – and that is unfortunate. The absence of anything
resembling the predicted levels of warming, the lack of sea level rise, and above all the
disagreements between predicted and observed temperature (however determined) should be
sufficient grounds for profound skepticism about the IPCC position, even for a scientifically
uninformed but otherwise intelligent person.
Kate,
Looks like the “denier” label is about to be transferred to the AGW “believers”.
It is becoming increasingly obvious with every report the IPCC is standing on a sand podium built at low tide where it should not have been.
– – yeah, just like the harping IPCC groupies are “deeply unscientific”, and like their mentor the IPCC, were disguising another agenda aside from science or caring for the environment with their climate doom/GHG zealotry.
Remember them Kate? Remember how they used to pollute the rational narrative here with their zombie-like regurgitation of fraudulent IPCC assumptions of faulty climate data? Remember how reflexively they savagely condemned any one who had reasonable doubts or criticism of the errant methodology of the IPCC – remember them?
Where are these hissing climate zombies now? Moved on to the next anti-human development, pro-auterity, anti autonomous project? Occupy? Anti-fracking/pipeline? anti-ethical oil? Anti-colonization but no-one-is-illegal open border immigration? What nation-destroying project have the self-destructive zombies taken up now?
Extremist left deconstruction projects have no shortage of LIPs (Low Information Protesters) to staff their socially destructive agendas. I blame the Public school system which has abandoned teaching reasoned rational problem solving skills, critical thinking and cohesive nationalism for abstract thinking and anti-devolopment, anti-nationalist idealism. I also blame a rent seeking MSM for propagating these vast frauds and pandering to special interests with agendas which are distinctly hazardous to free society, civil liberty and national sovereignty.
It would not be deeply unscientific to label the IPCC
as Globull Warming Whoring Window Dressers Ltd.
in aid of the largest rent seeking scam of western
world taxpayers ever attempted on this planet.
They have all signed up for a trip to Mars!
The CAGW argument of “it’s simple physics” was always amusing. I hoped that someday a journalist might follow up with a question about physics that the actual warming by CO2 alone was only 1.1C. All of the scare scenarios require fairly massive positive feedbacks, amplification and other processes that were (and are still) poorly understood. Even the unscientific follow up question about why we need to spend millions of research dollars to prove “simple” physics with the result being climate models that have failed to accurately predict the rate of warming and effects of warming should be obvious.
The report by the physicist to the UK government is a good summary to read thoroughly. I suggest that if the CAGW industry had refrained from panic, threats and appeals to authority then they’d have almost nothing left. The data is at best inconclusive beyond the 1.1C for a doubling of CO2 and at worst totally misrepresentative of the climate system. Well, outright fraud would be worse but I think motivated reasoning, self interest and confirmation bias is more prevalent than outright fraud from the majority of scientists – politicians, activists and The Team, OTOH…
This scientific question,CAGW, should have been like a court case or formal debate: A ‘yes’ side and a ‘no’ side, equally funded, all data in the open, presenting simultaneous reports. The null hypothesis -natural cycles are the primary cause of climate change- has not being studied thoroughly enough. If it had then I doubt we’d have gone down the road leading to expensive, unreliable energy. The most one-sided scientific endeavour ever, IMO.
Yes, but the work of the IPCC is always peer reviewed, right ??
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/03/unpaid-students-to-review-ar5-this-is-rigorous-expert-science-right/29/
The usual suspects are now agitating against vaccination. I was in for
a regular checkup the other day and saw a poster on a waiting room wall
refuting objections to influenza vaccination. As in my own rather
extensive experience I have come to regard influenza vaccination as a
very good idea, I asked my medical person about this. Yes, the anti-
influenza vaccination campaign has reached the proportions of a public
health problem. I promptly had a look into the “Textbook of Influenza”,
2nd ed., by Robert G. Webster, Arnold S. Monto, Thomas J. Braciale, and Robert A. Lamb; Wiley, September 23, 2013. And a fascinating read it was.
To make a long story short, influenza is a very serious disease which
usually, USUALLY, does not cause a really serious infection.
However, both from a public health perspective and in individual
perspective it can cause serious lasting damage, and death.
When I speak of “the usual suspects” I am not sure that the MSM have
really joined in the campaign.
Studies show that statistically, flu vaccinations have no greater therapeutic efficacy than having no vaccination at all.
You have a greater chance of beating the flu by taking vitamin D supplements or eating more foods rich in vitamin D or tanning under ultraviolet light which stimulates your production of vitamin D, all of which increases your natural immunity to the flu virus.
“Yes, the anti-influenza vaccination campaign has reached the proportions of a public health problem.”
Bullshit. Let me tell you about a public health problem.
When the Elites decide to depopulate the world because they don’t need most of us anymore and we’re using up THEIR resources, they aren’t going to do it by rounding up people and put them on cattle cars so as to ship them to extermination camps, they are going to do it with ‘flu’ vaccination shots that dumbasses will line up for and even pay for, except it’ll be a live virus.
The H1N1 ‘pandemic’ was a live rehearsal just to test compliance levels.
JOHN LEWIS…being critical of the methodology is NOT an appeal to authority
Occam…hate to burst yer balloon but I’v had a few discussions with religious rite wing wankers on this topic, and they are true AGW believers, so it’s not just the lefties!!!!
Ooz…U off yer meds again???
What the warmist scientists should have tried was to prove the recent warming was remarkable; without that mitigation is unnecessary. They never came close and simply shifted the burden of proof to anyone who didn’t share their “consensus.” When that failed and the real possibility of disproving their hypothesis emerged, the slime, bait and switch movement began, with terms like climate justice thrown around with threat of jail times for non-believers who interfere with the course of the revolution, er I mean sustainability. The truth is the watermelons never gave a sh*t about the environment in the first place, so proof of their fabricated poppycock means nothing. It was all BS to begin with anyway so who cares if the earth is warming or cooling – it must be sustained, with very large bureaucracies and plenty of money for climate justice departments siphoning off wealth from some and, minus a handsome commission, giving it to others.
Letting China explode global emissions growth is OK, they’re really trying don’t you know. But Canada with her miniscule contributor, the eeek TAR SAAANDS, has replaced a baby seal getting its head bashed in. Gore et al don’t care about saving Gaia, they only care about their personal wealth, prestige and power. That’s why they are getting shriller as their case becomes tattered. Why do they attack Canada? Two reasons – they can (because China would be so tolerant of free speech) plus Justin will surely feel their pain; and most importantly because Canada is a competitor of Saudi Arabia for oil exports to the US and China.
What direction the temperatures are actually going and whether or not they’re remarkable is a moot point to warmists.
http://tinyurl.com/yaf7er8
A Blast From the Past: SDA Regulars talking it up in the midst of the 2009 H1N1 PANDEMIC which was predicted to kill 90,000 Canadians by October 15, 2009 but only killed 18,000 people World Wide.
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/archives/i-say-they-pump.html#comments
The very idea of, “Summary for Policy Makers” pretty much gives the game away. It’s Code for: “we’ll give you all the ‘simplified’ hysteria you need to secure power and you keep shoveling the money this way”. The only thing scientific about the exercise is the near perfect example of the concept of symbiosis it demonstrates.
Oz, you’re much more likely right than the current statists who inhabit BC’s “public health” bureaucracy. I feel it appropriate to state that Perry Kendall, the moonbat in charge, is a statist whore.
One of the dictates coming down from this statist whore is that all physicians working in BC hospitals must obtain influenza vaccines or wear masks. Still haven’t gotten my Darth Vader masks that I ordered and was told that wearing a grim reaper mask might cause excess anxiety among patients.
Just before I was going to wear a mask with “Perry Kendall is a statist whore” written on it when I did my hospital visits, it occurred to me that I hadn’t established in 2009 whether my whole body urticarial response to the H1N1 vaccine was a non-specific immune activating action of the squalene adjuvent or an enhanced immune reaction to H1N1 antigens. Thus, to experimentally test the hypothesis that I was hypersensitive to the H1N1 antigens in the influenza vaccine, I gave myself a 0.25 ml im dose rather than the usual 0.5 ml im dose that one uses to vaccinate adults. The response was very rapid and in about an hour had a marked urticarial reaction that extended down my left arm (I injected the vaccine into my left deltoid) and I suddenly was very hoarse. I declined the kind offer of one of the ER docs who offered to intubate me then to prevent a more difficult intubation later that day should I develop significant laryngeal edema.
It was clear, although I haven’t talked to an allergist yet about further serologic testing, that I have IgE antibodies against the H1N1 vaccine antigens. According to Interior Health, I must either wear a mask or give myself another 0.25 ml of the influenza vaccine. I’ll be sending them an email telling them I’m only willing to do this (in the spirit of research) if they compensate me financially for any adverse actions this may cause.
The justification that IHA gives for demanding compulsory vaccination is that individuals without influenza vaccine are infectious 24 hours before they develop symptoms. Given the H1N1 is the most prevalent serotype of influenza currently being isolated and that it produces an urticaria reaction in me, my response would be that should I develop unexplained urticaria I would immediately start a course of Relenza. In a way, this abnormal immune reaction to H1N1 is an early warning system as previously I would immediately start anti-viral influenza therapy with the onset of marked myalgias and a high fever. Given that this has happened twice in the last 15 years with an immediate resolution of the symptoms following relenza inhalation, there’s at least a 15% failure rate of the influenza vaccine in me and, given that I’m exposed to influenza infected individuals on a regular basis, starting immediate antiviral therapy when symptoms occur is a far better policy than administration of exogenous antigens as this gives a more robust immune response to future contact with the same viral strains.
H1N1 appears to have created quite strong immunity in individuals who were exposed to it in the past as I have never seen the severity of side effects that have occurred with the 2009 vaccine. It should be an individual decision of whether or not one accepts a vaccine. The epidemic model used by “public health” departments is as flawed as the climate models which are currently being discredited.
The current BC immunization policy also demonstrates that the public health officials who support this statist policy are in violation of the Hippocratic oath (should they have taken it) as “first do no harm” is one of the tenets of the Hippocratic oath. Requiring that an individual be forced to take a vaccine (or wear a very visible mask which is the 2013 equivalent of the yellow star that Jews were forced to wear in Nazi Germany) is clearly a violation of their oath. Thus, they have demonstrated to the whole world that they are primarily statist whores rather than physicians. Actually, any “public health” physician who supports hoplophobic policies which deprive individuals of the means of self-defense has also violated the Hippocratic oath and is thus engaging in unprofessional conduct.
Vaccination, like CAGW, is by no means “settled science”. Science is never “settled”; at best there are hypotheses that have withstood challenge for centuries. In the case of smallpox, polio and other old, groundbreaking, vaccines, one can with high confidence state that the benefits greatly outweigh the risks. Thus, while I likely have immunity against tetanus as a result of annual gardening activities, I still give myself a booster against tetanus every 10 years as I consider the risk far less than being stricken with tetanus. Similarly, I would take a smallpox vaccine booster if it were available.
There is quite soft evidence for influenza vaccine and, until the 2009 influenza season I automatically gave myself the influenza vaccine. The extreme reaction I got in 2009 resulted in my doing a considerable amount of reading about vaccination and my conclusion was that most new vaccines were not worth taking. Thus, I counsel parents against administering chicken pox vaccine as well as HPV vaccine as the primary beneficiaries of these vaccines are not the patients, but rather the drug companies that manufacture the vaccines. The net effect on the population is likely going to be negative although stockholders in the drug companies that produce the vaccines would argue otherwise.
Vaccines are extremely profitable, especially if enough statist whores exist to approve them for the whole population. At this point I consider that the adverse effects of new vaccines are at best neutral and, in many cases, worse than not administering a vaccine given the autoimmune side effects from the vaccine. I’m curious what my immune system is doing with the H1N1 antigens and would be willing to be a guinea pig for another vaccine dose as long as I got to order the tests I thought appropriate to see what my immune system was doing. However, an extreme response like mine would likely result in a hospital employee who is a member of a union whose collective agreement includes “sick time” taking 1-14 days off as a result of a reaction like I experienced (doctors don’t take “sick time” and usually have to be forcibly told to stop work and go home when they’re just about moribund).
While a few cases of vaccine induced lupus might be acceptable in the case of a serious pathogen such as pneumococcus, meningiococcus or polio, these few cases are unacceptable in a vaccine for HPV which is an infection which is acquired through voluntary unprotected copulatory activity. Far more beneficial would be a campaign to distribute condoms to teenagers than scare them with television commercials about HPV (I presume this is where the information is coming from as I don’t watch TV, but the number of young people terrified about HPV tells me that these commercials must be providing the needed population indoctrination to increase drug company profits). Also, as one of the procedures that female patients least like is having a pap test done (and should women feel the need to not have paps done in future, many female physicians whose practices are based on almost exclusively seeing women for pap smears would suddenly have to relearn most of their medicine again) women will be under the delusion that they are protected against cervical cancer as a result of having an HPV vaccination. HPV is currently the most probable cause of most cases of cervical cancers but, just as a large number of non-smokers get lung cancer, even nuns get cervical cancer, albeit at a much lower rate than sexually promiscuous young women.
At this time, cervical cancer is a very curable disease if found early. Thus, while an HPV vaccine is very good for the bottom line of drug companies and the statist drug whores who approve the vaccine, it will likely cause the “unexpected” effect of increasing female deaths from cervical cancer. This is by no means “unexpected” as thinking in depth about the effects of a given action seems to be a very unusual attribute among people who determine statist policy. Just as statists assume that banning guns will reduce death rates based on the simple assumption that because a firearm can kill someone, banning them will reduce death rates, so do vaccine advocates agitate for compulsory vaccination looking through a very narrow reality tunnel where their predictions might make sense but, if one looks through a wider reality tunnel, their predictions are incorrect.
After this long aside I will get back on topic and Dr. Darriulat is absolutely to point out the unscientific “consensus” argument that the CAGW advocates keep trotting out. “Consensus” has a role in democratic elections but absolutely no role in science. Unfortunately, the increasing statist role in the funding of scientific research has the perverse effect of driving the science out of state funded “scientific research”. Medicine is not a science although many doctors pretend it is one. Consensus has a stultifying role in medicine and, the BC College of Physicians even warns physicians against going against “commonly held views” of physicians. At this point it doesn’t prohibit physicians from doing so, only states that physicians must state beforehand that their views are not shared by a majority of physicians. However, given the increasing statist infiltration of the medical profession in BC, likely at some point in the near future disputing the policies of statist whores will likely be considered unprofessional conduct.
Just because the lone hermit researcher is no longer as prevalent as they used to be before the days of gigantic statist “research” projects, the true measure of a scientific theory is still whether it predicts results in advance of their measurement. Thus, even though the whole ossified bureaucracy of the Catholic church supported the view that the sun revolved around the earth, Newton’s laws provided an absolute refutation to the terracentric cosmology of the era. Unlike the ossified bureaucracies of modern states, the Catholic bureaucracy changed its cosmologic weltanschauung whereas the only thing that is likely to change the view of the BC government on the scientific validity of “carbon taxes” is to kill every politician, bureaucrat and crony capitalist whose reputation and livelyhood depends on the maintenance of a scientific falsehood.
AFA vaccinations are concerned it’s a buyer beware scenario – the jury is out on the overall effectiveness of vaccines and some are outright toxic– I do not trust big pharma or corporate medicine any more than I trust big government – here I agree with the vaccine protesters is in reserving the RIGHT to refuse them – whether you believe vaccines are a miracle or poison, it is up to you what you put in your body and to what medical procedures you submit to, and any government or authority which forces you yo do something you feel is harmful to yourself is a tyranny which needs a bloody nose.
As for the zombie hordes who were pimping IPCC gibberish, They can now be found in any anti-petro self-sufficiency development crusade. I wonder if they realize they are doing the leg work for David Rockefeller and Warren Buffet’s profitability margin.