Is Nader The Spoiler?

Via Drudge Report, the first post-nomination poll is out showing Kerry and Bush in a virtual dead heat.
The speculation is that Nader is the spoiler, bleeding off Democrat supporters.

Bush and the four-term Massachusetts senator, who emerged as the nominee Tuesday after a string of primary race wins over several rivals, have been running close or Kerry has been ahead in most recent polls that did not include Nader.
Since Nader entered the race Feb. 22, campaign strategists and political analysts have been trying to assess the impact of another presidential bid by the consumer activist whom Democrats blame for Al Gore’s loss in 2000.

Well, maybe. But if this proves to be a genuine signal that the enthusiasm for Kerry is already waning, it suspect it’s due to Edwards supporters moving to Bush. No doubt Nader may have skimmed off a few from Kerry’s left, but more likely he’d motivate the type who would refuse to commit to either Bush or a Kerry, the previously “undecided” who needs a third option to even want to vote.
Admittedly, I haven’t seen much of either on TV, and none of the debates. But it’s been my impression that hawkish Democrats were more comfortable with Edwards than with Kerry, and with Edwards out of the race, they can’t bring themselves to wobble over in his direction.
disclaimer: I reserve the right to be full of shit.