Maybe this bunch of economists needs to scratch their heads harder, if they cannot figure out why the Canadian economy is shedding jobs.
Canada’s July jobs reading caught economists by surprise with a loss of 30,600 positions rather than an expected gain of 15,000 for the month.
Did they think that an economy beset by two years of lockdowns, severe supply chain chaos, involvement in a ruinously expensive war in the Ukraine and pandemic policy that basically drives away tourism would somehow result in job growth?
“experts”
Starting to really believe the term actually just means “random person with an opinion”. Inferred is “take with a spoonful of salt”.
Might as well say… “Person who consults the bones!!”
An expert is someone who used to be a pert. Perts do nothing. So nothing has changed.
Expert: Academic with no real world practical experience.
An expert is someone who knows the wrong answer to 3 decimal places.
While in industry, I heard that an expert is someone more than 50 miles from the office and carrying a briefcase.
Then there’s expert…. ex = former, spurt = drip.
Economics is an art masquerading as a science. Everything you needed to know about economics was written in 1776 by Adam Smith in The Wealth of Nations. Yet our politicians chose Keynesian economics to become the SOP for every modern government because it allowed them to spend when common sense dictated parsimony.
Keynesian economics justifies the role of the state in the economy. Adam Smith decried the role of the state in the economy.
they chose half of what Keynes said, and ignored the other half, to everyone’s detriment…
No government has every cut spending in non-recession times, but is more than willing to run up the debt at the first sign of a possible slowdown.
Eventually, you end up at the same place as Japan, with Stagnation
This needs to be repeated. Keynes said the government should borrow during the hard times and pay back during the good times. As you point out the government only borrows and never pays back. So they don’t practice Keynesian economics.
Borrowing requires willing lenders. Western governments have run out of lenders – fewer and fewer lenders want to bankroll essentially negative RoI by funding the pet “social justice” projects (with negative expected RoC) of Western Governments. Hence their Central Banks are now the primary “purchasers” of their debt.
This is going to end well.
The Bank of Japan now holds between 60 and 70 percent of all Japanese sovereign debt. Look to them for a prelude.
What political party that has to be elected into power will willingly go into an election cycle with the message: “We’ll keep your taxes the same and cut spending by laying off civil servants and lowering your “entitlements”? Therefore, Keynesian economics is a flawed theory since it doesn’t take into account human nature. And a central government that’s powerful enough to force its citizens to submit to Keynesian economics will NEVER give up its power (ie. reduce the number of government departments, employees or “responsibilities”–that’s why there are Public Service unions to ensure that government only grows and never diminishes). If you think about it–150 years ago you didn’t need the permission of the government to get married, to open a business, to go hunting/fishing, to build a house–or even build an addition to your house–today all those are governed by bureaucrats whom you pay from your hard-earned money in the form of taxes and of course administration fees.
Mike Harris was so elected; did it for a while then went soft and voters turfed the PCs.
Ralph Klein was so elected; did it.
Stephen Harper was so elected; did a little, stopped giving supporters reasons to keep supporting (Justin ‘not ready’ was not enough).
Manning was pretty good in that he pushed Chretien to cut spending. Results to the people were achieved which should be the measure of success. Trying to be more like the Liberals to get a nicer office did not get results to the people.
Unemployment numbers and rates are gamed anyways, and have been for years. They don’t reflect all those that have given up looking for work, for over a year.
We haven’t yet seen the impact of interest rates on the residential building sector, but it’s coming. Real estate values are down 20% across the board. Builders will take the first hit, as will their staff, and the direct and indirect industries. It will get ugly, this country’s main industry for the last 15 years has been centred around this very industry.
It will get ugly.
You are right that the bean-counters don’t factor in those who have given up looking for work in Canada.
But the readers of articles like these certainly will be thinking that. Even the most ovine will realise what is actually happening, even if they don’t want to admit it.
The ever increasing interest rates will be compounded by the extraordinary high material costs. The first hit as the ability to purchase declines will be in labor costs as the competition for construction work may be reminiscent of the eighties. Eventually building material costs may reduce, but it is so far out of normal that we will be lucky to see levels at the extraordinary high prices we saw in the 2000 era. Trump is probably correct, we may see a depression type Era before this is done. Of course part of this will be the destruction of fiat (savings).
They don’t reflect all those that have given up looking for work, for over a year.
It was that way when PET was beating up Alberta with his NEP or when Mulruin continued the devastation. I was among those who didn’t matter to the government.
Dan
My wife works for TRICO HOMES in Calgary. Largest and most profitable business w/I have to say some of the best benefits I’ve ever seen: vision care for each -750 for a 2 year span…the resets…unheard of
.!
The vast majority of new home buyers, are from Ontario and the Maritimes…most if not All, with totally unpronounceable names…
And Trico is busy…
Had some economists been surprized by the loss of THEIR job, then maybe they would understand it a little better. But the little people are just statistics to them in their job-for-life. And life is what they should get, for advising governments to destroy the economy. How come htese people never get fired or laid off?
I am seriously considering a major lifestyle change. Getting sick of funding extravagant lifestyles of politicians and bureaucrats et al that have an authoritarian bent shall we say.
I may as well be growing a garden, hunting and fishing and chopping wood to survive instead of being a serf to these idiots. (Things i enjoy doing)
Thinking of working a couple months and keep my income under 40,000 to reduce my taxes to a minimum, but still make enough to pay bills etc.
I don’t think I’m the only one thinking this way. Never mind the people that are just taking their wealth and skills and leaving the country altogether.
I was planning on leaving Canada even before the “pandemic”. Finally I packed up and left almost 2 years ago, happy where I am, and miss absolutely nothing from Canada. I am past the stage “I don’t know if I should be amazed, or if I should be amazed that I can still be amazed.” I scan Canadian papers but that is about all. Talking to fellow expats around the world I think most of us are happy and well.
I live in South America, getting a permanent residency and enjoying life. Happy to offer advice should anyone need it.
It is currently winter where I am, temperature is 17 C and typical daily highs would be 15-25 C for this time of the year.
Where in South America are you?
I know a lot of people are looking to Mexico or places like Panama and whatnot. Your escape is looking more and more attractive.
I hate to be black pilled about things, but every day is a new announcement regarding some incremental progressive advance and 75% of the population seems to love it. I sometimes feel like this is going to be viewed as the before times and eventually when the progressive hegemony decides to drop the facade people will be wondering where it all went wrong.
Can’t believe escaping Canada is a thing we need to at minimum consider and think about, but here we are.
I speak fluent Spanish, so it makes it easier. I always looked at Mexico as last option – too many Americans, too much random drug violence, even though it depends on your location. It is a huge country. Panama right now is in the middle of Sri Lanka style collapse. I spent time in Ecuador, Colombia, Peru and Paraguay. Since I do not want to flood this thread with Q&A, feel free to drop me a line – my chat handle @ protonmail.com
Happy to get into more detail there
I’ve been SCREAMING about leaving Canada ever since this scamdemic started.
If only there was a way we can communicate outside this forum. I would love to hear what you would suggest.
see my reply above
I got on that path last year. Every ounce of my energy goes to feeding and housing my own family. I work hard to make sure no energy leaves the property. Excess production is fed to animals. Citiots occasionally ask if they can buy a piece. No, I need to feed pigs is the answer.
This lifestyle is funded by selling a ridiculously overpriced house in Ontario and buying acreage elsewhere.
“Did they think that an economy beset by two years of lockdowns, severe supply chain chaos, involvement in a ruinously expensive war in the Ukraine and pandemic policy that basically drives away tourism would somehow result in job growth?”
Yes, yes, they did.
These aren’t simply well-heeled morons. They really have an antipathy towards people who feed their families by working hard for a living.
Don’t forget the carbon tax and the clean fuel standard which raise the price of everything.
Precisely.
And Canadians stupidly go along with it.
Osumashi Kinyobe …
“Did they think that an economy beset by two years of lockdowns, severe supply chain chaos, involvement in a ruinously expensive war in the Ukraine and pandemic policy that basically drives away tourism would somehow result in job growth?”
… not to mention the Net-Zero insanity , first targeting oil and gas and now farmers all in the name of climate hoax.
Canadians will be familiar with those repercussions soon enough.
Let’s not forget a barely functioning civil service.
Well, that’s a matter of opinion. In my opinion, the civil service is functioning perfectly well: its job is to gum up the rest of the economy so it can move at a snail’s pace like the snivel service.
The civil service is neither civil or a service.
They DO function … for themselves.
Lots of jobs being created in the Federal civil service. To stay home, and do nothing. Or worse, stay home and do something ….
So we watch the feds kill off the energy sector, kill off the tourism sector, decimate the healthcare sector, come gunning for the agriculture now, soon to start killing of fishing industry – and we wonder why we are shedding jobs? Seriously, can people really be THIS stupid?
It’s all going according to plan.
Consider a person of average intelligence among those you know, then think that half of the population is even dumber.
OT, but still worthwhile:
Judith Durham of The Seekers just passed away: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-62447650
Possibly their most famous song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZf41UudAbI
We’ll never find another her.
What a shame. The Seekers’ George Girl album was the first one I ever purchased as a ten year old in 1965. And still plays.
And, as the love-lorn ram thought, “I’ll never find another ewe.”
Precisely.
With the moron justin trudeau and his merry band of ill educated,incompetent ,socialist street-urchins running the show I’m surprised that more jobs weren’t lost.
But give it time,things are going to get worse with boy blunder at the helm.
I’m sure there are plenty of experts not being consulted by the media who have lots to say about The Turdo policies. We minions are not permitted to hear from them.
Too many communists are confused with being economists.
Oh, and the answer to the question; yes, they really do believe the economy grows despite all their efforts to destroy it.
Mike
100% Correct.
One thing that has never been satisfactorily conveyed to me by the so-called journalists of the mainstream is whether the “experts” understand how the models that they use fail, or even why the used model did not work. I’m no expert in a great many things–modelling included–but it seems to me that such mistakes would fall into one or more of the following categories: calculation, input, and model design/selection.
Again, I don’t know what is going on in those back rooms where all this calculated, statistics and input gathered and predictions generated. However, my gut tells me that it probably isn’t a calculation error. It could be a garbage in/garbage out error. But it is most likely a combination of garbage in/garbage out combined with an inaccurate or improper model. It could be a sampling bias, but it seems that the frequency of “unexpected misses” is incredibly high. This in turns leads to the questions…
1. How often are they really right?
2. How often are they wrong?
3. Do the people doing this even know what they are doing? This is really just another way of asking “Do they understand why the models they use fail BEFORE they fail?”.
“I don’t know what is going on in those back rooms where all this calculated, statistics and input gathered and predictions generated. However, my gut tells me that it probably isn’t a calculation error. It could be a garbage in/garbage out error. ”
You give too much credit to our bureaucrats, there is NO expertise, it is all about feelings-for an example review bank of canaduh head tiff macklem, a complete waste of skin and oxygen, with no expertise whatsoever.
Peter said, “2. How often are they wrong?”
See, for instance, Paul Krugman. He’s wrong all the time.
He’s allowed to be wrong whenever he wants. He won a Nobel Prize, you know…..
So what’s with all the help wanted and now hiring signs?
Well, I played my role. Since I was forcibly excluded from certain establishments by Fall 2021, upon being granted the privilege to patronize such establishments, I have refused to do so. My neighborhood grocery store is one of the few places that gets my money. We hold “pub nights” at home, karaoke at friends, exercise at home and on the trail. Cut al travelling involving planes, ships and buses, and expanded my garden and my relationship with local small farmers. Canada can shove the rest of the economy up its sorry ass.
Same here – now we’ve adapted to a much more slimmed down lifestyle; not interesting in starting up those old habits. Having friends & family in for their visits is just as rewarding as traveling used to be. Having big successful garden results now, that takes some efforts but well worth it.
Cranb
++++++++++/\
Surprise surprise?
Lets see?
Our government declare that the citizenry have no human rights nor freedoms,but those extended to them ,by government..
The government courts..agree.
The government declares dissent criminal.
And seizes the bank accounts of selected victims..none of the so called independent agencies even ask for a warrant,they just obey.
So clearly the government feels your property is theirs to take or control your access to..
Same geniuses inflate the money supply while crippling our export industries,then blame Global Warming and or Putin for the resultant price increases..
So who in their right mind would risk their own money in such an environment?
What are the chances of reaping any profit from investments in Canada?
What are the odds,that you could lose all,for some idiocy such as wrong think?
“Unacceptable views”..Who are these Liberals,to tell anyone what are “acceptable views”.?
What criteria could such unskilled,unaccomplished persons be using?
How would an idiot decide what views are “acceptable”?
And acceptable to whom?
John Robertson ….
The foundation for much of the current morass was laid by Pierre Trudeau who was an outright arrogant rich communist who trained his son well. Pierre initiated Multiculturalism and a privileged civil service class.
I recall him being questioned , at the time, regarding why the Charter did not include the right to own property. His flippant answer was that it would be “problematic” for government … no kidding !!!!
On the bright side , it seems many Millennials who helped put Justin in power now hate the site of him. Reality is a bitch when it hits you head on.
His son?
‘We’re all government workers now.’
Don’t forget, about 40,000 legal immigrants arrive each month.
Just returned from a month driving from Toronto to St. John’s, NFLD, and back again. Spectacular scenery, but this isn’t a travelogue post. I noticed, even in NFLD, “Help Wanted” signs everywhere. Fast food chain billboards proclaimed “Set your own hours!”, “Apply by Text”, etc. Turned away from half a dozen restaurants because they had no staff to serve the obviously empty tables, or just outright had “Closed due to No Staff” signs on them.
I worked in restaurants while going to university, so I’m sympathetic to, and partial to finding, small mom-and-pop places. But many places just couldn’t stay afloat after two years of go/no-go conditions. At 6 pm on Sunday night in Cornerbrook, we couldn’t find a single independent that was open. And now that tourists had returned – hotel bookings were very tight, there were no rental cars to be had on the island, and there were line-ups at most restaurants – there just wasn’t a supply of staff willing to work the long and tiring hours of a restaurant when the fear of it being shut down at a moment’s notice would mean they would their jobs for a third time in three years.
Since the Boomers’ kids aren’t having babies anywhere near like their parents did. there isn’t a huge labour pool available. Even in the prosperous small towns of Quebec’s Montregie, the signs blaring “Nous Embauchons” (‘We’re hiring’: I had to look it up) were everywhere. For many reasons – lots of telework available, government support, underground work – there aren’t so many people so desperate to work as a dishwasher as there were in days of yore. But I know from experience that labour costs are a huge part of running a bistro, and paying $20 hr for busboys and dishwashers would result in highly inflated prices.
Which, by the way, I also saw. My GF and I remarked that the cost of every meal – from baked cod to hamburger to fried cod to moose to cod au gratin to chicken to deep fried cod – was $20. We don’t drink alcohol, and we rarely got away from a table for less than $75 after tax and tip. I got a meal in McD’s once just because I was tired of paying $20 for a burger.
2 Full years of Boning Each n Every Business in the country up THE ASS…and said economists thought employment would be up…?? get Stuffed
More blue pilled Idiocy.