Trumpocalypse delayed:Payrolls surge by 304,000, smashing estimates despite government shutdown
13 Replies to “2 Year Recession Watch Remains On High Alert”
Must have been all those unemployed, non-essential, federal employees finding new jobs … hahahaha ha ha ha ha … they don’t know what a “job” is …
Ha, you reminded me of that great line from ‘Ghostbusters’ where they are contemplating surviving as scientists outside of the University….
“Personally, I liked the university. They gave us money and facilities, we didn’t have to produce anything! You’ve never been out of college! You don’t know what it’s like out there! I’ve worked in the private sector. They expect results.”
If the Yanks do the most stupid thing, elect a radical leftist DeMarxist to replace MAGA in 2020, they deserve the economic devastation that WILL occur. And it will be very bad. There has been enough rhetoric from the radicals, that if it were to occur, MASSIVE amounts of funds would be pulled out of the states, and yes indeed, it will be the DeMarxist supporters that will pay the worst of it, millenials, da poor, the usual suspects. And yes, Canaderp will catch the flu by proximity disease.
POTUS TRUMP has done what he said he would do, get the economy moving, and he has, quite clearly (Sorry, Bammy, YOU didnt build that!) Some DeMarxists are still trying to justify that ridiculous claim.
Its not TRUMP’s fault if someone with a useless degree, has a useless degree, and still cant move beyond barista or bartender……the fact that AOC gets eve a little traction with her sweeping communist plans, says volumes about the massive stupidity in the states with millenials.
My bet is TRUMP will remain as he is, resilient, and the economy will continue to thunder along. “Its the economy stupid!”
that will only hasten the demise of Canada, which already has one foot in the grave.
‘despite’ government shutdown
Jeremy Powell at the Fed is getting increasingly vague about when he will raise interest rates. With China slowing down, and the possibility that House Democrats will be blamed for a recession and not Trump, he presumably has been asked to hold his fire a bit longer.
I guess, until they revise it down to make the next month look better…the Orange jesus used to call those numbers fake.
It’s official: January marked the record 100th consecutive month of consecutive job growth, and it did so in style, with the US adding a whopping 304K jobs last month, nearly double the 165K expected, however much of this appears to have come at the expense of a revised December number which was revised lower from 312K to 222K.
State of the Union envy – National Post – 1 Feb 19 – Lawrence Solomon
On the economy, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has done a lot of things wrong, writes Lawrence Solomon.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will have a bad night Tuesday, when U.S. President Donald Trump delivers his State of the Union speech before Congress. Trump has done just about everything right on the economy, Trudeau just about everything wrong, and the contrast will be cringe-worthy.
Trump will doubtless brag about America’s red hot economy, which took off the day after he was elected president in November 2016. Business confidence instantly soared upon the realization that companies would soon be able to shed the immense drag of Obama’s politically correct interventions. The stock market soared along with it, investment surged and employment boomed. The U.S. now boasts an unemployment rate below four per cent that includes rates not seen in decades, or ever, for blacks, Hispanics and women. So many people are entering the workforce to seize the well-paying jobs on offer that the workforce-participation rate is up while the numbers of those on disability and food stamps are down.
Employers are so desperate for help in America’s tight labour market that they are adapting their workplaces to accommodate those with physical and mental disabilities and are even giving a second chance to those with criminal records.
In Canada, despite the booming U.S. economy next door, our unemployment rate remains mired at 5.6 per cent, almost 50-per-cent higher than America’s. With our industries burdened by Trudeau’s Obama-style interventions — those tied to gender-equality and climate among them — and failing to generate the good jobs seen south of the border, our labour force is shrinking as wages struggle to keep pace with inflation. Investors in Canadian firms are suffering, too — since Trump’s election, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared more than six times that of the S&P/TSX Composite Index.
What was once America’s single biggest economic and geopolitical weakness — its energy dependence on oftenunsavoury foreign suppliers — has vanished, with America’s energy ascent an American triumph. By unshackling energy development, Trump has made America the world’s largest oil and gas producer, not only selfsufficient and secure domestically but able to undercut enemies such as Russia and Iran by eroding their markets, diminishing their incomes and undermining their relevance.
What was once Canada’s single biggest economic and geopolitical strength — our energy industry — has also vanished, to become our single-biggest shame. By shackling pipelines and otherwise demonizing fossil fuels, Trudeau has neutered Canada’s largest export earners and most strategic industries, diminishing Canada’s economic clout and political relevance to the U.S. and thus inevitably to the international community.
Before Trump came to power, the conventional wisdom among the world’s elites had two-per-cent GDP growth as the new normal for developed economies, with Obama averaging just 1.65 per cent. The Trump economy has blown that conventional wisdom away. In 2018, U.S. GDP growth is estimated to come in at three per cent, 50-per-cent above Canada’s two per cent, which will more resemble the old Obama normal.
Another pre-Trump conventional wisdom had manufacturing jobs gone for good. The Trump economy blew that away, too, with 284,000 manufacturing jobs created in 2018, mainly on the strength of cuts to taxes and red tape. In Canada, where taxes rise and red tape binds, manufacturing jobs are stagnant.
Trudeau’s bad night Tuesday will have one wry consolation, however: Trump makes Trudeau look bad, but he also makes Trudeau look better than he deserves. Without the Trump gang buster economy, which has buoyed the Canadian economy to make ours look passable, the Canadian economy would be in clear decline. With Trudeau’s Canada having become one of the OECD’s highest corporate income tax jurisdictions, with our high marginal personal income tax rates certain to discourage the best and brightest from immigrating here and with investment leaving Canada, our economy’s plight will soon enough become widely evident to Canadians. How soon is the big worry for Trudeau. He needs the Trump train to keep barrelling and to keep propping up Canada’s economy at least until the fall, when he faces voters in a general election.
Not despite government shutdown; BECAUSE OF IT. The government is out of the way while it us shut down. When government is out of the way, people get things done.
No it wasn’t. That’s now how shutdown works unfortunately. The weird bizarre processes ex permissions for beer labels that you have to go through were still there, just inoperative. Air Traffic Controllers are certainly needed. Good thing Canada privatized those.
It appears to be Main Street versus Wall Street.
Meh. US economic growth is still quite mediocre in historical terms, and they have out of control spending. The next recession is coming and it will hurt.
Must have been all those unemployed, non-essential, federal employees finding new jobs … hahahaha ha ha ha ha … they don’t know what a “job” is …
Ha, you reminded me of that great line from ‘Ghostbusters’ where they are contemplating surviving as scientists outside of the University….
“Personally, I liked the university. They gave us money and facilities, we didn’t have to produce anything! You’ve never been out of college! You don’t know what it’s like out there! I’ve worked in the private sector. They expect results.”
If the Yanks do the most stupid thing, elect a radical leftist DeMarxist to replace MAGA in 2020, they deserve the economic devastation that WILL occur. And it will be very bad. There has been enough rhetoric from the radicals, that if it were to occur, MASSIVE amounts of funds would be pulled out of the states, and yes indeed, it will be the DeMarxist supporters that will pay the worst of it, millenials, da poor, the usual suspects. And yes, Canaderp will catch the flu by proximity disease.
POTUS TRUMP has done what he said he would do, get the economy moving, and he has, quite clearly (Sorry, Bammy, YOU didnt build that!) Some DeMarxists are still trying to justify that ridiculous claim.
Its not TRUMP’s fault if someone with a useless degree, has a useless degree, and still cant move beyond barista or bartender……the fact that AOC gets eve a little traction with her sweeping communist plans, says volumes about the massive stupidity in the states with millenials.
My bet is TRUMP will remain as he is, resilient, and the economy will continue to thunder along. “Its the economy stupid!”
that will only hasten the demise of Canada, which already has one foot in the grave.
‘despite’ government shutdown
Jeremy Powell at the Fed is getting increasingly vague about when he will raise interest rates. With China slowing down, and the possibility that House Democrats will be blamed for a recession and not Trump, he presumably has been asked to hold his fire a bit longer.
I guess, until they revise it down to make the next month look better…the Orange jesus used to call those numbers fake.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-01/january-payrolls-soar-304k-record-100th-consecutive-month-job-gains
It’s official: January marked the record 100th consecutive month of consecutive job growth, and it did so in style, with the US adding a whopping 304K jobs last month, nearly double the 165K expected, however much of this appears to have come at the expense of a revised December number which was revised lower from 312K to 222K.
And then there was this:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/31/weekly-jobless-claims.html
at a 1 1/2 yr high…
Balance the perspective – the economy in the US is not as robust as many claim – nor is at as bad as others say.
And while Trump has had a significant positive impact, there are other factors too that have helped.
Cross your fingers that the economy continues to be doing well 18 months from now.
Funny Kate I haven’t seen you post the baltic index of late – probably not since Trump got elected…
http://nationalpost.pressreader.com/national-post-latest-edition/20190201/textview
State of the Union envy – National Post – 1 Feb 19 – Lawrence Solomon
On the economy, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has done a lot of things wrong, writes Lawrence Solomon.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will have a bad night Tuesday, when U.S. President Donald Trump delivers his State of the Union speech before Congress. Trump has done just about everything right on the economy, Trudeau just about everything wrong, and the contrast will be cringe-worthy.
Trump will doubtless brag about America’s red hot economy, which took off the day after he was elected president in November 2016. Business confidence instantly soared upon the realization that companies would soon be able to shed the immense drag of Obama’s politically correct interventions. The stock market soared along with it, investment surged and employment boomed. The U.S. now boasts an unemployment rate below four per cent that includes rates not seen in decades, or ever, for blacks, Hispanics and women. So many people are entering the workforce to seize the well-paying jobs on offer that the workforce-participation rate is up while the numbers of those on disability and food stamps are down.
Employers are so desperate for help in America’s tight labour market that they are adapting their workplaces to accommodate those with physical and mental disabilities and are even giving a second chance to those with criminal records.
In Canada, despite the booming U.S. economy next door, our unemployment rate remains mired at 5.6 per cent, almost 50-per-cent higher than America’s. With our industries burdened by Trudeau’s Obama-style interventions — those tied to gender-equality and climate among them — and failing to generate the good jobs seen south of the border, our labour force is shrinking as wages struggle to keep pace with inflation. Investors in Canadian firms are suffering, too — since Trump’s election, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared more than six times that of the S&P/TSX Composite Index.
What was once America’s single biggest economic and geopolitical weakness — its energy dependence on oftenunsavoury foreign suppliers — has vanished, with America’s energy ascent an American triumph. By unshackling energy development, Trump has made America the world’s largest oil and gas producer, not only selfsufficient and secure domestically but able to undercut enemies such as Russia and Iran by eroding their markets, diminishing their incomes and undermining their relevance.
What was once Canada’s single biggest economic and geopolitical strength — our energy industry — has also vanished, to become our single-biggest shame. By shackling pipelines and otherwise demonizing fossil fuels, Trudeau has neutered Canada’s largest export earners and most strategic industries, diminishing Canada’s economic clout and political relevance to the U.S. and thus inevitably to the international community.
Before Trump came to power, the conventional wisdom among the world’s elites had two-per-cent GDP growth as the new normal for developed economies, with Obama averaging just 1.65 per cent. The Trump economy has blown that conventional wisdom away. In 2018, U.S. GDP growth is estimated to come in at three per cent, 50-per-cent above Canada’s two per cent, which will more resemble the old Obama normal.
Another pre-Trump conventional wisdom had manufacturing jobs gone for good. The Trump economy blew that away, too, with 284,000 manufacturing jobs created in 2018, mainly on the strength of cuts to taxes and red tape. In Canada, where taxes rise and red tape binds, manufacturing jobs are stagnant.
Trudeau’s bad night Tuesday will have one wry consolation, however: Trump makes Trudeau look bad, but he also makes Trudeau look better than he deserves. Without the Trump gang buster economy, which has buoyed the Canadian economy to make ours look passable, the Canadian economy would be in clear decline. With Trudeau’s Canada having become one of the OECD’s highest corporate income tax jurisdictions, with our high marginal personal income tax rates certain to discourage the best and brightest from immigrating here and with investment leaving Canada, our economy’s plight will soon enough become widely evident to Canadians. How soon is the big worry for Trudeau. He needs the Trump train to keep barrelling and to keep propping up Canada’s economy at least until the fall, when he faces voters in a general election.
Not despite government shutdown; BECAUSE OF IT. The government is out of the way while it us shut down. When government is out of the way, people get things done.
No it wasn’t. That’s now how shutdown works unfortunately. The weird bizarre processes ex permissions for beer labels that you have to go through were still there, just inoperative. Air Traffic Controllers are certainly needed. Good thing Canada privatized those.
It appears to be Main Street versus Wall Street.
Meh. US economic growth is still quite mediocre in historical terms, and they have out of control spending. The next recession is coming and it will hurt.