The National Bureau of Economic Research has unveiled new research on the “only thing standing in the way” phenomenon;
“A country whose autocrat is assassinated is 13 percentage points more likely to move toward democracy in the following year than a country where the assassination attempt on the autocrat failed.”
Judging from the US model, assassination only forwards the agendas of the elite political establishment, which in most cases is anti-democratic.
The current state of genuine democracy in the US is rather dismal as well, owing to recent policies enacted in the name of freedom and security. What to do, what to do…?
Buy a gun, Texas. Vote Republican (admittedly while holding your nose this year). Involve yourself at every level of government, making it clear that any policy or proposal which reduces personal freedom will be stone walled and the people who proposed it will be made famous in a really bad way.
Politics is the art of going with the current. What we have to do is change the current. That’s hard to do, but its been done before.
Incidentally I reiterate my previous statement about Mugabe. Lit on fire, -then- dragged through the streets.
Its important to do these things in the right order.
“Buy a gun, Texas. Vote Republican (admittedly while holding your nose this year)”
What good will that do when both federal party cartels are obviously dedicated to dismantling the republic and supporting the empire?
Good republicans are as out of luck as liberal democrats…the system is no longer an answer..it’s the problem…too many minute men fell asleep and the redcoats and their mercinaries came back and established an imperial governing cabal in Washington.
“We find that assassinations of autocrats produce substantial changes in the country’s institutions, while assassinations of democrats do not,” conclude authors Benjamin Jones and Benjamin Olken in Hit Or Miss?
Confirms what we already now that democrats are dead already — at least brain dead! BWWWAHAHAHAAA!!!!
WLM,
You don’t happen to live in a shack in Montana do you?
The US may not be a perfect libertarian state but they’re closer to it than most places. Especially the old “empire” of the formerly-great UK.
In a democratic society the only people that should be concerned when an elected leader has died, naturally or has been assassinated while in office, are their family and friends and not the official govt.In all democracys the line of succession is well established and ,as history has shown,is followed.
I think that single variable causal relations are, in a word, unscientific. The world simply doesn’t operate in such a simplistic mechanical manner.
The assassinations in the US? The US was set up as a democracy so, these assassinations can’t be part of the study. Or can they? They show the unreliability of the proposed model, which adds a contextual variable: Is the assassination taking place in a current democracy or in a non-democracy?
In a state that isn’t a democracy, an assassination might just replace one autocrat with another. Caesar’s assassination didn’t lead to the return of democracy in Rome. What about the various Russian tsars?
So, it’s risky to reduce causes (eg, of a transformation to democracy) to one variable.
W.L.Mac, it is usually better to give up all hope -after- they load you into the cattle car.
An armed citizenry is much scarier to political control freaks than a DIS-armed one. For examples, see Britain. Contrast with Texas.
“Is the assassination taking place in a current democracy or in a non-democracy?”
From the article:
“A country whose autocrat is assassinated is 13 percentage points more likely to move toward democracy in the following year than a country where the assassination attempt on the autocrat failed.”
Pretty self explanatory, I thought. The study deals only with assassinations in non-democratic nations.
alex – I was aware of that variable. My point was that there’s no validity to a claim that assassinating a dictator leads to democracy. Simply doesn’t make sense as a cause-of-democracy.
There has to be an already existent infrastructure that would enable that democracy to emerge. Otherwise, you can just be replacing one ‘autocrat’ with another.
ET, your single variable objection seems sound. Does this change the current setting-on-fire-first order of business for Mugabe?
So what?
Uhhhhh…no kidding? That specific autocrat is not longer in the equation and few tears were shed, as opposed to the fact that he is and now he’s pissed. GOSH!!!!
Here’s another similar scenario. A restaurant that runs out of potatoes is 13% less likely allow french fries to remain on the menu. Of course, there is always to the chance that they will anyway…but the honest ones will remove it.
phantom – I don’t know what’s going to happen with Mugabe; there has to be a ‘reason’ for the long delay in announcing the presidential results. He’s already lost the parliament.
But, he’s essentially pathological now; I doubt if he could even imagize himself as not in power, as not the President. So, if he refuses to leave, because such a scenario simply doesn’t exist for him..then..what do they do with him? Fling him off Victoria Falls? Make up a new position for him?
Zimbabwe’s in an economic and political mess. I think the people there have the will to get out of it, but..wow…how do they deal with that economy?
I think that single variable causal relations are, in a word, unscientific.
Precisely why SCIENCE requires more dictator brains splattered around the lab.
Much, much more “research” remains to be done.
As Mel Brooks said in Blazing Saddles, “Work, work, work, work, work, work work.”
Incidentally I reiterate my previous statement about Mugabe. Lit on fire, -then- dragged through the streets Phantom
What’s the matter isn’t a good old “hang, drawn and quartered” good enough for you?
Perhaps the ‘light on fire first’ scheme will help ‘light the way’ to democracy. It’s probably cheaper than a flashlight in Zimbabwe right now.
Special circumstances, Joe. Hung, drawn and quartered is ok for your run of the mill serial killer/terrorist bomber type.
But you know, when the number of victims starts to exceed five or six digits the old stand-bys you just have to break out of tradition and be creative.
I mean, look at the salutary effect of good ol’ Saddam Insane getting yanked out of that spider hole on CNN. Momar K’Daffy coughed up a couple nukes just from that.
I imagine a torch lit procession with Mugabe starring as the torch might put the fear of the hereafter into a few petty dictators. As Brian says, light the way to democracy.