Mark Helprin in the WSJ;
The short unhappy life of whatever passed for unipolarity is emphatically over not merely because the strategy of the moment has allowed a small force of primitive insurgents in Iraq to occupy a large proportion of American military energy, but because China is now powerful and influential enough, at least as a “fleet-in- being,” to make American world dominance inconceivable. And in the longer term, China is bent upon and will achieve gross military and economic parity with the United States.
Just so you can say you saw it coming.
I tend to think that China has more problems internally than are common knowledge. Just last year they had an emergency recruitment of 300,000 new “riot police.” The Western Provinces are feeling the repercussions of drought for about the fifth straight year…and the natives are getting restless concerning the resulting poverty.
A couple major natural disasters to the Chinese breadbasket and they are going to be on the ropes…That’s why the reclaiming of Hong Kong was an absolute must for their economy (which most experts tend to think they inflate).
Kate:
I actually blogged about this yesterday…..I’ve been watching China for a while now, and it occurs to me that most of the predictions regarding China are super optimistic, and automatically assume that China will continue its frantic economic growth it has (officially) kept up for the last 25 years or so.
Just keep in mind that most financial models will break down after 5 years. I don’t know what kind of massive ‘natural disaster’ would take out a widespread industrial base that the above poster refers to, but I think that the marketplace for decent low wage labour will heat up (India). Also, it occurs to me that there is going to be more and more pressure on the yuan…probably resulting in either one of three things: higher interest rates or depegging, or both. Either way, China’s economy could go through some serious problems. They just recently upped the Int. Rates.
Also, to the best of my knowledge, they have absolutely zero in terms of an airforce, and they lack any air craft carriers. Strategically, they are relying on missile attacks to take on the US in the advent of a war involving Taiwan. They may be able to repel an invading force, but they lack any capacity for air support.
anyways, its a fascinating topic.
Some good comments.
While I agree “grosso modo” about the concept of an up-and-coming China, there are some real institutional flaws with the country’s economy.
The Chinese military is also not all it’s cracked up to be. A lot of work needs to be done there – behind a veneer of modernisation there’s a lot of outdated kit (the wholesale destruction of Chinese equipment in the two Gulf Wars must have been a big wake-up call for NORINCO!).
Since we’re “blogging,” the indicator of progress I’d keep an eye on would be the Internet.
The moment the Chinese government realizes that unfettered access to the web for its citizens is worth risking a loss of political control is the moment China might well start taking off…
I believe the key to China’s increasing dominance is that it is paying for GWB’s deficits, since it is the biggest purchaser of US government debt. It is also recycling all those $billions of US trade deficit into all kinds of other US investments such as stocks and real estate – thus contributing to the illusion that Americans have of steadily increasing wealth. From a financial point of view, it is clear that China is the master and the US is the servant.
Over the long term China could very well trip up. Despite taking all our manufacturing jobs, China is a net loser of manufacturing jobs – due to the old inefficient state-run factories closing. Hence the riot police. The Chinese government czars claim to have read and understood Adam Smith, but I don’t think that they actually trust their own people to see to their own prosperity. They fear chaos and the breakup of the country, but all of their efforts to centralize control only make it more likely to happen. (George Bush and Paul Martin should take note)
Did you read The Pentagon’s New Map by Thomas P.M. Barnett? A must read!
http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/
See also:
Global Guerrillas
“Networked organizations, infrastructure disruption, and the emerging marketplace of violence. An open notebook on the epochal war of the 21st Century.”
http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/
The Chinese Century (fiction)
http://www.corante.com/mooreslore/archives/028588.html
The real thing to fear is the menace from the North: The Democratic People’s Republic of Kanuckistan. Discover the evilness of it all at http://www.kanuckistan.com
If I’m a bit reckless with my money, I’d bet a large bill on Chinese banking system crashing soon. Their problem is such magnitude that makes Japanese banking problem from the mid 90s looks tame.
YO!
CLOSE your blink tag…
Justzumgai: I remember twenty or so years ago when everyone was hysterical that Japan was taking over all of Manhattan’s prime real estate and that they already owned about 80% of Hawaii’s best property.
Well, they don’t anymore…..they are out.
I saw a program on cable recently (last 2 weeks) but I am old so can’t remember whose, possibly National Geographic (but I’m not under oath). It showed all the huge Western style shopping malls going up and a burgeoning young “middle” class enjoying their new autos and new clothes and new life styles. Gone are the bicycle-filled streets that was China.
Problem exposed during the program…urban sprawl is taking over…government is pulling a kind of
“eminent domain” on farmers. An incredible number of farms have been taken over. The trend is only continuing and farmers forced to try and farm less fertile land or to head to the city too to find another life.
It may turn out that the American Farmer, greatest producer in the world, will be needed to feed the masses of Chinese who are coming to democracy (free market) throught the “back door”.
Just like me to run off and work for the day, leaving the worlds only “blinking” blog…. Opera is so good at closing tags, that when I screw up on html, I don’t know until someone on IE yells at me about it….