37 Replies to “The Elbow Shaped Economy”

  1. Not worried at all. A certain TDS-afflicted rodent will shortly be compelled to enter this thread and stridently explain to us all why this is not true and the rest of the world has it all wrong.

    1. Trump promised a much higher GDP for the USA on “DAY ONE”! … ohhhhhhhhhhhhh Mommmmmaaaaaaaa … just another one of Trump’s Lies! His MAGA base are abandoning him as they cannot tolerate a paltry +2.7% increase in GDP.

      It’s all so predictable.

      1. “You seem obsessed with me. That’s not healthy.”

        Not obsessed…just amused.

        (once again, someone rings the bell, and you come running. Pavlov’s dogs have nothing on you…)

  2. “GDP cannot distinguish value creation from value destruction. It counts the economic activity represented by the spending, whether that activity creates or destroys wealth.” – John Hunt

    While Canada has earned its last place standing from electing those that have imposed economic stasis, the top of the GDP growth shown above is now the greatest spender of the bankrupt welfare / warfare states with unending deficits to show for it.

  3. Starting from 2025, US GDP growth looks decent. But over the last year, almost every economic indicator is is either lacklustre or downright poor: GDP growth has slowed, inflation is high, job growth is non-existent, and the balance of trade has barely budged.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth-annual

    And the federal debt. Oh my gawd. It’s 123% of GDP. The deficit is 5.8% of GDP and won’t be coming down soon. 30-year treasury bond yields haven’t been this high since 2004, meaning institutions are demanding a large premium to carry the risk. And neither the president nor congress seem to give a crap.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30

    Raw power isn’t enough. The US has to be smart. Its fiscal, economic, and foreign policies are a catastrophe, throttling the economy and destroying international trust. And the US needs that trust, because it needs foreigners to invest in America and buy its debt.

    So sure, pop the corks. But the last few quarters tell a different story.

    1. Common money market rates … at virtually ZERO risk … hover around 4%
      The awful, terrible, no good 30year bond rates are at 5.22%

      Doncha believe rates for 30-year instruments should offer some significant incentive for investment? The MARKET sets the rate … not the government.

      Now ask yourself how the FEDS systematic strangulation of the economy through artificially restrictive monetary policy and interest rates impacts 30 year T Bonds?

      Your TDS is so utterly pervasive that you blame him for things beyond his control.

      1. This is not beyond Trump’s control. The markets are reacting to Trump’s and congress’s inaction on the ballooning debt, and to Trump’s economic policies. Canada’s 30 year bond yield, by comparison, is 4.1%.

        And the term TDS just means you can’t bear to listen to criticism of Trump’s policies.

        1. So … please elucidate …
          Why? Would anyone buy 30-year investments for a 4.1% return when you can get 5.2%?

          Ohhhhh yeahhhhh … MORONS who didn’t buy the FAKE Trump tariff Dip … are the same dipshits that would buy Canadian debt.

          1. Would anyone buy 30-year investments for a 4.1% return when you can get 5.2%?

            1. Many funds are required to buy only government bonds that have a top credit rating. Canada does. The US is in the second tier.
            2. Bond traders may be expecting the US dollar to fall in comparison to the Canadian dollar.
            3. The Canadian goverrnment is in better fiscal shape than the US government. Both its debt and deficit as a % of GDP are smaller (Canadian provinces are a different story). Most criticaly, Canada’s deficit is projected to fall, while the US deficit isn’t going anywhere for a while. This means that the odds of a default may be seen as less in Canada than in the US.
            4. A high yield is self sustaining, as it adds to the debt maintenance costs, which adds to the debt, which creastes a higher yield, which adds to the debt maintenance costs, and so on. This is called a debt spiral.
            5 The Canadian PM is a respected economist, while the US president has a brain full of squirrel monkeys.

          2. 5
            Heh.
            “respected economist”

            He may be respected, sure…
            But he’s an authoritarian who thinks government should drive the economic bus.
            Alto is the perfect example – it has zero value but its going to cost $100 billion and if completed, it will continue to be a negative asset for as long as it exists.

          3. “The Canadian PM is a respected economist…” That’s a bridge too far! He is respected only by those ignorant of economics and or pathological Keynesians. His reputation as a central bankster is one of poking his interventionist and globalist nose into central planning well beyond his day job of managing the decline of fiat currencies towards their ultimate intrinsic value. He is a deceitful, vindictive, secretive, Islamophilic, elitist slime ball and green fascist. OTOH, your description of Trump has some merit.

            “There was one good thing about Marx: he was not a Keynesian.” – Murray Rothbard

          4. https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/economy/terence-corcoran-industrial-strategy-a-global-push-to-crush-capitalism/ar-AA2a7hNA?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=6a7f7c735cca4f43a468d8b41033b3fc&ei=25

            “and will be familiar with Carney’s long-time mission to replace free markets with state markets.”

            “Another risk in Canada is the growing involvement of government pension plans. The Canada Pension Plan and the Public Sector Pension Investment Board are helping set up the investment summit. Defence Minister David McGuinty recently held closed door meetings with “military industry leaders” and later with nine pension funds to discuss “opportunities to strengthen collaboration between government and Canada’s pension funds to support of Canada’s Defence Industrial Strategy.
            It looks like pension plans are about to be enrolled in providing funding to help subsidize military spending and Carney’s other industrial strategies rather than maximizing market returns to cover the pensions of Canadians.”

          5. #5.

            As of May 2026, Canada held approximately $435.80 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, reflecting an increase from $397.10 billion in April 2026. The U.S. Treasury securities are sold in auctions, and Canada is one of the major foreign holders of these securities.

            Thanks World Banker Genius! Seems you agree with me about ROI.

          6. Whatever you might say about Carney, he’s miles ahead of Trump, who’s bought into spurious economic theories that are harming all of North America. And congress has done bugger all to slow Trump down.

          7. #1, 2, 3, & 4. …

            Canada is increasing treasury bill sales, with a recent auction size of C$28 billion, up C$2 billion from two weeks ago. This increase is in preparation for upcoming bond maturities in August and September 2026.

            The U.S. has the largest bond market in the world, valued at over $51 trillion, with government bonds making up a significant portion of this market. Other countries, like China and Japan, also have substantial bond markets, but the U.S. remains the leader in terms of total sales volume.

            No shortage of buyers whatsoever, wake me up when the US runs out of buyers … Canada sounds desperate to cover their AAA rating. Hurry! psssst … let’s see what happen to your rates as you get MORE desperate not to default.

          9. Kenji:

            Yes, there’s no currently no shortage of buyers — at a 1.1% premium over Canadian bonds. Given that Canada is not in the best of shape these days, that should worry everyone. And it should really, really worry everyone that Trump and congress don’t appear terribly worried.

          10. Just like with Iran … Trump is standing by … waiting to pick up the pieces and put something back together that is sane, logical, and in the interest of most it’s citizens.

          11. The Canadian PM is a respected economist

            Horse shit. Not by anybody who knows 2+2=4, not 5.

          12. FTFY.

            Whatever you might say about Trump, he’s miles ahead of the TDS idiots who swore that his tariffs would kill the economy.

          13. Dumb Biker: Trump’s tariffs are killing the economy. Almost no US economic indicator for this year is good.

            But more than the damage caused by the tariffs themselves is the erratic and arbitrary nature of their imposition. No one knows what to expect week to week. This makes it hard for businesses to plan, and erodes international trust in the US. As a result, businesses tend to hold on to their money until they can make sense of it all, and international investors look for more stable places to park their money.

    1. “Still not using the ‘R’ word?”

      He can’t, because that would mean admitting he was wrong.

      (I do love the way he keeps walking back his previous positions, though..;)

  5. The broken window effect explains much of current ‘growth’.

    How much of current economic activity is repairing the damage caused by indiscriminate immigration?
    How much of this economic activity is just trading dollars?

    The real question is how much of this economic activity is actually creating anything of enduring value?

    We’re going down. down. down. We’re on a controlled flight into terrain with a suicidal aircrew, and it’s not accidental but the passengers don’t seem to notice..

    1. “We’re going down. down. down. We’re on a controlled flight into terrain with a suicidal aircrew, and it’s not accidental but the passengers don’t seem to notice..”

      Yup, that’s us alright.

      I’m told by some that it is the fault of the boomers who own homes, trying desperately to prevent any economic changes that would affect the value of their (unearned) millionaire status. Anything that could change Canada’s economy and create affordable housing is the very *last* thing they want, so they are deliberately trying to sabotage the country for their own selfish ends.

      (that, or they are all just really REALLY stupid and actually fell for Carney’s “Elbows Up” nonsense…)

    1. Ever since the head of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics was fired for reporting results that displeased Trump, one has to wonder what US numbers are now being skewed more positive.

      1. You almost sound as though you believe Trump redefined US Growth … like your bureaucrats redefine medical claims .

        To make the definition … more accurate?

        1. Firing an administrator responsible for reporting national statistics because Trump didn’t like the news is corrupt and self-defeating. Reality isn’t going to improve by hiding from it.

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