Operation Epic Fury

Status report from the Institute for the Study of War. (Good X account to follow)

Iranian Retaliation: The rate and scale of Iranian ballistic missile strikes targeting Israel suggest that US and Israeli efforts to degrade Iran’s retaliatory capabilities are succeeding.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated that Iran’s retaliation in response to the joint US-Israeli air campaign has not inflicted US casualties or caused meaningful damage to US military installations used to conduct offensive operations against Iran.

Multiple Iranian drone strikes on civilian infrastructure in Gulf countries wounded civilians on February 28.

Several members of Iran’s Axis of Resistance, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, have condemned the US and Israeli strikes in Iran but have not conducted retaliatory attacks as of ISW-CTP’s 04:00 PM ET data cutoff. These Axis of Resistance members could decide at any time to attack the United States or Israel in response to the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, however.

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The combined US-Israeli force killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and it is unclear who is currently ruling Iran. US President Donald Trump confirmed on February 28 that Khamenei was killed. The Iranian constitution stipulates that the President, the Judiciary Chief, and a member of the Guardian Council will take over the responsibilities of the Supreme Leader until Iran’s Assembly of Experts convenes to select a new leader. Khamenei was reportedly making plans prior to the current conflict for who he wanted to rule Iran in the event of his death, however.

The combined force conducted nearly 900 strikes on Iranian targets in the first 12 hours of its campaign, according to an unspecified US official speaking to Fox News. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated that it struck 500 Iranian targets. The regime’s internet shutdown has almost certainly limited the amount of information about US and Israeli strikes coming out of Iran. ISW-CTP’s strike data, therefore, only reflects a portion of the total amount of US and Israeli strikes.

CENTCOM Update: As of 9:30 am ET, March 1, three U.S. service members have been killed in action and five are seriously wounded as part of Operation Epic Fury. Several others sustained minor shrapnel injuries and concussions — and are in the process of being returned to duty. Major combat operations continue and our response effort is ongoing.

@DrEliDavid – President Trump announced that the US is converting all Iranian ships into submarines

The United States and Israel are pursuing several lines of effort to achieve their stated campaign objectives: 1) suppressing Iranian air defenses, 2) degrading Iranian retaliatory capabilities, and 3) disrupting Iranian command-and-control.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated that Iran’s retaliation in response to the joint US-Israeli air campaign has not inflicted US casualties or caused meaningful damage to US military installations used to conduct offensive operations against Iran. CENTCOM said that US forces have successfully defended against hundreds of Iranian missile and drone attacks.

Iran has not attacked vessels in the Strait of Hormuz at the time of this writing, despite warning vessels against transiting through the strait. A European Union official told Reuters on February 28 that the IRGC warned vessels transiting through the strait that “no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz.” ISW-CTP has not observed any reports of Iranian naval forces taking kinetic measures to harass or attack vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Several members of Iran’s Axis of Resistance, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, have condemned the US and Israeli strikes in Iran but have not conducted retaliatory attacks as of ISW-CTP’s 04:00 PM ET data cutoff. These Axis of Resistance members could decide at any time to attack the United States or Israel in response to the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, however.