59 Replies to “It’s Probably Nothing”

  1. There is a reason China recently bought over 300,000 riot police packages. Good luck finding that in the news. ;D

    It is assumed that the Chinese people go along with every decision from the exalted ones without question. Guess again. Imagine the Jimmy Hoffa era where the Union demonstrators outnumbered everyone else by about 3 Billion to 1.

  2. The dam was made in China. Likely to the same standards as everything else made in China.

    1. RS, and it’s ignorance like your’s that is the problem, They have had excessive rain and that is their problem. Fools like you, and even me said the same about Japanese cars, and now look at them, have you ever heard of Toyota??? Chinese can and do build some very GOOD products. Do NOT underestimate them !!!

      2. They also can and do make some terribly defective products. (Just like everywhere else).

        There is a chance that damn dam might fail and millions would be in jeopardy.

        It was built to withstand a 1 in 10,000 year flood but in 10 years that has been restated by Chinese media as 1 in 100 years. The first date clearly communist puffery, the second terrifyingly low if you live downstream.

        1. During the early days of construction some 20 years ago, misgivings about the integrity of the dam’s structure were expressed and, of course, ignored or suppressed.

          2. Looks like something designed, engineered and built by SNC Lavalin, bribes and all.

      3. Hey MME666
        Yeah I remember what we all said about cheap Japanese junk in the fifties, but um’, what does Toyota and Japan have to do with Chinese products? If you’re hinting that one day Chinese products will be “The envy of the world” and they just need to get through their manufacturing infancy……they’ve had more than long enough, and with their population compared to Japans population, they should have been turning out quality years ago. They still put out junk, and will continue to do so, for the world provides no incentive for them to upgrade, cuz no matter how poor their products we stupidly buy them anyway. I have done my best to avoid their junk, but it is so pervasive, it’s almost impossible. I even caught a new line on a package the other day, “Assembled in the USA, from worldwide parts!” If they ever do make things with quality, they would probably go to the central party anyway, not out in to the world.

        1. Gerry,I think the Chinese manufacturers tried quality back in the 1970s.I bought a set of Gray Sockets made in China,they were indestructible,I think my nephew is still using them.
          Modern “made in China” is worse than anything Japan inflicted on us,in their hey day.
          The battleship steel variations are amusing in hindsight.

      4. If it collapses, would you then be willing to admit that the design was perhaps flawed? And if you think that I am talking about this situation as a criticism of all things Chinese, I would invite you to look up the Prince Albert Dam in Saskatchewan (which I learned about while in engineering college, and had 80 years of financial ramifications for the people of Prince Albert).

        And if you want my personal opinion, the photos of Three Gorges doesn’t look promising.

        1. I looked at the picture on the Epoch Times link – Epoch Times has a serious hate-on for China, and that “2019” picture would be a real easy photoshop. Which I really, really hope it was – if Three Gorges lets-go, the death toll will be in the millions – conceivably in the tens-of-millions.

          So I looked it up on Google Earth – and you can see the dam is wowed. And Google Earth’s pictures are several years old now; our house has a car out-front that I scrapped a number of years ago.

      5. That’s funny.

        This sort of thing doesn’t happen everyday in Japan or South Korea and they are always plagued by monsoons.

        It’s almost like two countries build things to code and the other communist one doesn’t.

      6. Yes, none fires bat wings in gutter oil like Chicoms. Do NOT underestimate them !!!

    1. Quite right, SG. It was a horrific disaster. And entirely avoidable had the dam been built to relevant standards of the day let alone those in place now. Your cynicism is quite right: welcome to the Great Leap Forward as Mao grandiloquently named it.

      But it leads to another thought about the spectacular whining by various ENGOs about nuclear power. In 1979, Walter Cronkite and the rest of the media were hyperventilating about Three Mile Island, (where no one died) and the press is still hyperventilating over Chernobyl after nearly 35 years where 56 died. It’s all utterly trivial by comparison with the 200,000 who perished when Banquio collapsed.

      1. And the radioactive leakage from Fukushima is gonna kill us all – the NYT even said so.

          1. – And according to them, if it don’t kill us in ten years, well they’ll give it another ten after that – you know, like global warming.

            And they’ll be right next time – just you wait, you’ll see…

  4. 2020 – Year of the Jackpot? (Or is this the Trump Effect? Double Cross President Donald Trump and bad things seem to happen to you?)

    Or maybe it will be just some spectacular local flooding and everything will work out fine on the Yangtze River? The Three Gorges Dam was built by the Chinese with their best design, construction, and quality control, under strict Chinese Communist Party oversight. What could possibly go wrong?

    We should know by this time next week.

  5. Beautiful accompanying music ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. Won’t be so appropriate once that whole town cleaves off into the river.

  6. Not cool. Can’t say the 2009/2018 satellite images of the dam would give me a warm and cozy feeling If I lived downstream.

  7. It looks like someone forgot to allow for the possibility of reservoir overflow.

    The Bennett Dam near Hudson’s Hope, B. C. has a spillway on one end. Whenever Lake Williston gets too high for the dam’s penstocks, the excess water is routed through it. Because of that, the roadway at the top is closed off to tourists.

    I’ve been there when it happened at one time. The stream makes quite an arc, landing several hundred metres downstream. I recall that the tourist information centre was shaking a bit while that was going on.

    1. That’s not the problem, BA. A dam is supposed to be built as a statics balance. Deformation of the face of the dam shows that it’s not in static equilibrium, it’s moving. Dam faces aren’t supposed to move. 2nd link shows images from 2009 and 2018, and the face is warped in several locations.

      If they can’t find a way to stop it from moving (stabilize it) then it is likely to fail before the 1 in 100 year flood event. Yes, the 1 in 100 even would likely make it fail regardless, but only if the dam lasts long enough for that to occur.

      I’m not that type of engineer, but I’ve worked on a couple of earth-fill dams and the moment the water finds a way to pipeline through or around the dam, hydraulic pressure will enlarge the opening and cause failure within hours. A concrete structure like this one shouldn’t go that fast after an initial rupture, but the pressures involved and the degradation of surrounding materials would make plugging a hole very, very difficult.

      Specs available online show spillway capacity of 116,000 m3/s, or 4,100,000 cu ft/s. It’s not as visible as your reference dam, but the spillways are built in.

      1. I don’t think Bennett Dam is in any danger of failing. I saw how the glacial moraine was put in place and I remember how the riverbed was grouted. Construction was finished in 1967.

        The spillway was built in case the reservoir level became too high due to, for example, a heavy spring runoff which, considering the dam’s location, was quite likely.

        1. I should have been more direct in noting that the statics balance and image references were about the 3 gorges dam, not the Bennett. An earth-fill like the Bennett would be unlikely to survive the movement of the face being seen on the 3 gorges (PO’d’s comment below helps note that it’s being watched for).

          1. The fact that Bennett is earth-filled worked to its advantage due to the physics of granular material.

            Glacial moraine and gravel don’t flow easily partly because of the irregular shapes of the individual stones. The hydrostatic pressure would compact that mass, making it difficult to move, particularly since the cross-section wasn’t uniform due to different grades of fill being used.

            The Bennett Dam’s location was considered because the resulting reservoir could produce a suitable hydraulic head for the generators. It was chosen, in part, because it was located a few kilometres from a large deposit of glacial moraine, so building material was readily on hand. A conveyor belt was built from that deposit to the construction site along with a gravel mill for sorting the material for the trucks.

            At one time, that conveyor was the longest in the world.

    2. Ever drive that “road” on top of the Bennett Dam? I did….once. There was a big swale at the western end that had folks a bit concerned.

      I’ve been everywhere, Mann.

      1. Ever drive that “road” on top of the Bennett Dam?

        I’ve been on it once or twice.

        I vaguely recall rumours about leaks, but I think those were urban legends. The dam’s closely monitored and, after being in place for more than 50 years, it’s not about to fail any time soon.

        I don’t know much about Site One as it was built while I was an undergrad. It’s clearly visible when one crosses the river going south from Hudson’s Hope to Chetwynd.

        Site C is just south of Fort St. John. It’s clearly visible from the air.

  8. The problem with communism is advancement is not made by merit but by correct speak and party affiliation. Corners can be cut and lies and grandiose plans can be accomplished with no over sight. When reality catches up there the only response is to cover up.

  10. You want construction fraud and danger take a look at Quebec and their many overpasses with not enough rebar and poor concrete. They have been repairing and replacing at great cost for many years now.

    1. And we won’t say anything about the Olympic stadium, now will we? The last time I was in Montreal over 30 years ago, and we flew over it as we were coming in for landing at Dorval. And, no, it still wasn’t finished.

      1. I lived there when they were building it. Italian guy in my class filled us in on the construction “methods” used. Family were cement merchants. I only went once…Grey Cup 1977. Left town January, 1978. It snowed and some guy fell out of the “balcon” during the game. Redmonton was playing. They cross country skied on the field at half time, it was snowing so hard and the roof wasn’t finished. It was out in the boonies for most Montrealers, out past Frontenac Metro station. The end of the line back then.

  12. L-How many of the Chinese Communist Party Politburo will end up being tossed over the dam as a sacrifice to appease the rain gods ? Will the river become engorged with them ?

  13. I hope nobody drops One of those 20 meter tungsten rods that nobody says exists nearby. Like the one dropped on the Norks. Oops I guess that was an earthquake.

  15. This is terrible news. There will be a many people needing help. FEMA camps. Rescue dogs. Helicopter lifts of baby food. We should put aside our debate over property rights and help our fellow man.

    1. Quick, send in the Clinton Foundation to control the dispersal of rebuilding funds!

  16. The dam roadway certainly will not be able to withstand that for long; however, it must be because the damn is full due to rain. Why aren`t the relief drains being operated.

  18. I was on a tour of China a few years ago and our riverboat went through the 3 Gorges Dam area and up into the massive lake behind it. The area of the dam is just massive, biggest engineering site I have ever seen. 1.4 million people were moved as their homes were flooded by the lake. China had built 5 subways simultaneously in Shanghai in 5 years while in Toronto we couldn’t build one. Never saw much of “old” China as its like the country was rebuilt in 10 years.

    Surprised Trudope hasn’t moved there along with his fellow communist admirers like Chretien.

    1. I believe I was on the same tour. The dam was very impressive. In general I am impressed with the Chinese level of development and technical expertise. Undoubtedly, the astonishing pace of development results in some glitches.

  19. Third World engineering with Third World building materials….but First World facades….kind of like a Potemkin Village…n’est-ce pas?

  20. Last year, was in Revelstoke, BC, with family for a holiday. We all went on a tour of the nearby dam (not that many miles upstream on the Columbia River. Very impressive, but worrisome if one is living downstream. There is an Islamic extremist who has openly targeted said dam for destruction and my understanding is that he’s served his time and is now allowed to live not that far away.

    Back in 1979, there was a book, “The Wave”, which postulated the possible destruction should the Mica Dam (further upstream) fail. Let’s just put it this way: the resulting wave would take out every town all the way down to the Pacific unless the Grand Coulee Dam opened all spouts and was able to subdue the flow. That means Revelstoke, Nakusp, Deer Park, Castlegar, Robson, Trail, Northport, and so on. The death toll might not match those of Chinese dam failures, but it would be considerable. Should the Trail smelter also be taken out, it would be even more disasterous.

    1. @Frances
      My father was assistant project manager on the Mica Dam circa 1970-74. Project manager on the Nipawin Hydroelectric Dam circa 1982-85.

      I’ll tell you why the 3 Gorges Dam is failing; the geology of the area is COMPLETELY WRONG for hydroelectric construction.

      How do I know this, you ask?

      My father was tapped to run the construction of this monstrosity; but he turned it down.
      He turned it down, because the Communist Party apparatchiks decided they knew more about hydro-electric dam construction than he did! The Communist Party apparatichiks decided the local area GEOLOGY report could be IGNORED!!!

      He decided to use his time more wisely and took the project management job on the Lesotho Highlands Water Project.
      A 2.5 billion gig funded through the World Bank.

      My 91 year old father his now laughing his head off in a GIGANTIC “I TOLD YOU SO!”
      Rule #1 don’t anger german engineers; they can actually build real sh*t that doesn’t break.

      Cheers

      Hans Rupprecht – Commander-in-Chief
      Army Group “True North”
      1st Saint Nicolaas Army

      1. Holy crap! Thanks for the background (not just on the foundations of the 3 gorges, but why you’re so informed).

        I helped with foundation prep and material placement on the 3rd tallest earth filled dam design in North America, that’s my source of knowledge about the risks of piping failures (that was our biggest fear, and why we constantly tracked pore pressures downstream, to make sure the flow regime was working as designed). I’m a mining engineer, but worked as a tech for two years on the dam as a junior engineer.

        Bennett and Mica were pointed out to us as examples to emulate.

        1. Shortly after the site for the Portage Mountain Dam, which was Bennett’s original name, was selected, 3 diversion tunnels were built in order to route the river around the site. The purpose was to expose the riverbed to allow the underlying formations to be grouted.

          The best people in the world for that sort of thing were in the former Yugoslavia. A crew was brought over and they were on site for a year or so. I don’t remember the details, but my father got to know the chief engineer.

          I heard some rather interesting stories….

          1. I can imagine there are some good stories. We had a bitch of a time replacing permafrost with grout. What started as “it’s not high or cold enough, permafrost is not expected.” became “you need to either install a freezing system and maintain it in perpetuity or replace the permafrost with something impermeable. Otherwise you’re facing failure in 5-10 years as the dam raises.”

          2. Yep, my father cut his career teeth on the Grand Rapids, Manitoba hydroelectric project, 1961-64 where ground stabilization through wall grouting was the order of the day in a limestone porous rock ground bedding…

            Incidentally, also the problem with the Oroville Dam spillway disaster over the last couple years. ie insufficient wall grouting.

            As @C_Miner can attest dam failure is NOT AN OPTION in engineering!!!

            Drowning like rats in a hurricane swell is not a great sales pitch.

            Cheers

            Hans Rupprecht – Commander-in-Chief
            Army Group “True North”
            1st Saint Nicolaas Army

          3. Ouch. Hydroelectric in a limestone formation? Was he an alcoholic before he started that job, or only afterwards?

            And having the camp downstream of the dam was the best insurance that those of us worked on the dam practiced our due diligence and made sure the dam stayed up.

  21. China’s dam building expertise is renowned for quality or, or its failure, Ecuador is currently trading 80% of their oil exports to China for this expertise (it’s almost as though the Quebec folks that built Churchill Falls in Labrador negotiated this contract?).

    The largest project Sinohydro built in Ecuador had 7,648 cracks in the concrete, though they couldn’t count them all without removing the concrete and that’s not about to happen for obvious reasons.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coca_Codo_Sinclair_Dam

    Three Gorges Dam collapse? It couldn’t happen to a nicer group of communists.

  22. @C_Miner

    It’s all about hydrodynamic pressure and what the ground can sustain.
    Grand Rapids was a relatively smaller project, not involving 7,000,000 acre⋅ft (8.6 km3) of storage water like the Mica Dam.
    Thus the drinks were relatively more mundane, like the occasional beer. 🙂

    Cheers

    Hans Rupprecht – Commander-in-Chief
    Army Group “True North”
    1st Saint Nicolaas Army

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