Markets are underpricing the prospect of Marine Le Pen emerging victorious in the French election as a sea of undecided voters throws into sharp relief pronounced apathy for center-leftist Emmanuel Macron — the front-runner by a whisker — and the backlash against the European Union project.
That’s the conclusion drawn by Charles Gave, founder of Hong-Kong based asset-allocation consultancy GaveKal Research, who predicted the triumph of Donald Trump in the U.S. election, and is now betting on a win for the anti-euro National Front candidate.
“Le Pen’s momentum is a slow-moving reaction against the men of Davos — as we have seen with Brexit and Trump — but markets don’t want to believe it,” he said by phone before the first round of the French poll on April 23.
Grab a coffee: The French, Coming Apart
At the opening of his new book, Guilluy describes twenty-first-century France as “an ‘American’ society like any other, unequal and multicultural.” It’s a controversial premise–that inequality and racial diversity are linked as part of the same (American-type) system and that they progress or decline together. Though this premise has been confirmed in much of the West for half a century, the assertion will shock many Americans, conditioned to place “inequality” (bad) and “diversity” (good) at opposite poles of a Manichean moral order. This disconnect is a key reason American political discussions have turned so illogical and rancorous. Certain arguments–for instance, that raising the incomes of American workers requires limiting immigration–can be cast as either sensible or superstitious, legitimate or illegitimate, good or evil, depending on whether the person making them is deemed to be doing so on the grounds of economics or identity.
At a practical level, considerations of economics and ethnicity are getting harder to disentangle. Guilluy has spent years in and out of buildings in northern Paris (his sisters live in public housing), and he is sensitive to the way this works in France. A public-housing development is a community, yes, and one can wish that it be more diverse. But it is also an economic resource that, more and more, is getting fought over tribally. An ethnic Frenchman moving into a heavily North African housing project finds himself threatening a piece of property that members of “the community” think of as theirs. Guilluy speaks of a “battle of the eyes” fought in the lobbies of apartment buildings across France every day, in which one person or the other–the ethnic Frenchman or the immigrant’s son–will drop his gaze to the floor first.
Fits here
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Allot of big topics here, but one comment that stands out quickly:
“But globalization has had no such galvanizing effect on the rest of France. Cities that were lively for hundreds of years—Tarbes, Agen, Albi, Béziers—are now, to use Guilluy’s word, “desertified,” haunted by the empty storefronts and blighted downtowns that Rust Belt Americans know well.:
Globalization has only helped a few achieve hyper wealth, a few more some moderate wealth, and for the rest the loss of culture and any real future opportunity’s other than a pseudo slave existence in the service of the very wealthy.
It for “Work at your airports”.
The comment about the native Frenchman moving into a certain residential project applies in other settings.
While I was still working on my last university degree, the department I was in had a high number of foreign grad students from a certain country. Many of them acted as if the place belonged to them and that those of us who were Canadian citizens were intruders.
MOOSEMILK >
Heh, the liberal left thinks they’re living in a John Lennon melody “…no borders tooo….” as they simultaneously poop on police cars in front of banks to protest the 1%.
The Globalist 1% keep funding their riots to “keep up the good work” aka: Keeping those borders wide open..
Funny that.
Fantastic article. I wish I were as able as the author in expressing myself.
I once saw a humorous and brief example of ‘diversity’ at a pet store in Burlington Ontariowe.
a bunch of kittens got loose and dashed away in many ‘diverse’ directions.
I grabbed as many of the little things as I could whilst others did the same to keep them from harm, what little chance there was of that in an enclosed mall.
too bad the ‘diversity’ promulgated by certain politishuns isn’t equally harmless.
here here. same thing back in the 80s @ one of my alma maters.
rich kids, progeny of arab royalty, chirese millionaires, return address a dictatorship, ie pick one.
they exuded arrogance and privilege.
and Knights comment is the kind of thing that confirms my long stated expectation that some time in the future, a exceptionally elite cadre WILL own >98% of all real estate, financial assets and natural resources etc on the face of the earth whilst the swirling masses fight to the death over the breadcrumbs.
all enforced by cops and pseudo cops ie private ‘security’.
Make no mistake folks le pen is a hard left big gov many state socialist ……having said that if she wins and pulls out of the EU and punts the darbaroans back to crapsville I will be happy.
During my final undergraduate year 4 decades ago, the university decided to raise the tuition for foreign students by what was considered back then to be a substantial amount.
It didn’t go over very well, not so much with those directly affected as many were bankrolled by well-to-do families. The ones who squealed the most about it were domestic students, many of whom, not surprisingly, were in the lefty faculties. As one might expect, there were allegations that the tuition increase was racist. Never mind that a lot of Canadian students were applying to attend and, one might think, the university wanted to give preference to them by structuring the fee schedules accordingly.
That was bad enough. The aforementioned display of umbrage was topped, however, during my convocation ceremony, which was after the end of term. The pipsqueak who’d been elected as student union president for the coming academic year (probably a leftist himself) addressed the audience and carried on with the caterwauling. I’m sure that some in attendance would have gladly booed him off the stage if that action wouldn’t have been seen as inappropriate.
Ultimately, it didn’t matter to me as I received my B. Sc. and was about to start my first job. By the time I returned to finish my M. Sc. a few years later, the issue appeared to have quietened down.
For at least the last 25 years, I have watched in dull surprise as America intentionally imported and bred a VAST underclass of, un-educate-able, welfare dependents into our society. All in the guise of “workers” who will “do the work that Americans just won’t do”. And America’s own poor “Urban” girls were “compassionately” PAID by the government to BREED more of their dependent class. The MORE kids they pop-out, the MORE $$ they receive in dependent care $$$$. ALL of this appears to have been done to … transform … America into a less-white, less-wealthy, MORE “multicultural” country. Why ? From whence did this URGENT need arise ?
I have predicted, and been apprehensively awaiting the economic tipping point when the ULTRA POOR square-off in battle against the ULTRA RICH. We are VERY NEAR that point of NO-RETURN … across the entire globe. It appears as though the Pro-Socialist Ghouls have WON. They SOLD their “multi-culti” dream with heaping doses of white guilt. Heaping doses of First World lifestyle guilt. The children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren of the GIANTS who fabricated Western civilization have been made to f-e-e-l guilty for their SUCCESS. They have been told that the ONLY way to make “reparations” for their “greedy” civilization is to GIVE IT AWAY. Give it away by importing and OVER-breeding the dependent class. As IF these dependents will receive our civilization by osmosis.
I have watched this belief in cultural “osmosis” played out in America’s classrooms. Teachers are taught to place the SLOW children in groups with the SMART children. The belief is that … “all the POOR children need is a change of scenery” … to magically transform them into SMART students. Uh, yeah, it doesn’t work that way. In fact, the exact REVERSE happens … the entire group is dragged-down by the weak links.
The ELITES are rapidly running out of $$$$ to fund the FIREWALL separating the classes and cultures. Muslims in our midst are NOT improving anyone’s lives. Poor Guatemalans are NOT improving anyone’s life. Poor inner city blacks and HEspaniks are NOT improving anyone’s lives. Despite cleaning our toilets and mowing our lawns on the CHEAP. The economic firewall which has insulated the ELITES who are responsible for this IDIOCY is rapidly eroding. Oh, sure, we cannot “see” the REAL wall that has been breached … because it has been papered-over by 0% interest rates and CHEAP money by the Fed and every other Central bank. When the world economies collapse under the weight of carrying the UNDERCLASS … nobody will be spared. If you believe the French Revolution was a bloody mess … just WAIT for what’s coming for all the smug, self-righteous, Silicon Valley Elites when the welfare State can no longer fill the rapidly expanding EBT cards. Nobody will survive.
The mistake ? The rising tide of Western civilization became infected with doubt and self-loathing by Leftists. Doubt that educating and elevating the world’s savages was “appropriate”. The white man HAD a burden … which they WERE carrying. But leftist educators and philosophers (all vehemently anti-Christian) convinced Western Civilization that the noble savages were to be preserved as savages. Funny thing is that NOONE has EVER suggested the “preservation” of Viking culture, or primitive Anglo-Saxon cultures. Nope. It was just FINE that THOSE primitive peoples were brought out of the Dark Ages by science, technology, and personal LIBERTY and FREEDOM guaranteed by a NEW egalitarian government construct. But the rest of the worlds primitive cultures needed to be left alone (think the Star Trek PRIME DIRECTIVE). Educating and modernizing primitive cultures (aka Colonialism) was thoroughly discredited. In the vacuum of Colonial withdrawal … the world turned rapidly into a FIRST and THIRD world. There is NO “SECOND” world. Just the haves and the have not’s. All in the name of “cultural preservation” and “respect”. But the LEFTIST leaders cannot abide the US vs THEM economic divide. Nope. So the only answer … was to IMPORT the primitive peoples onto OUR shores. To “transform” Western civilization into a multi-culti wonderland. It was DOOMED from the start. Now … we are ALL DOOMED. The primitives have NOT adopted or even transformed our culture … they are JUST KILLING IT.
How about THAT for a book title Mr. O’Reilly ? KILLING Western Civilization.
Absolutely correct, she is a national socialist … and like Franco or Salazar better than any feasible alternative.
Yes colonista. i by no means am a supporter of le pen per say but if she pulls out of the EU and kicks the thugs back to the mud hut culture they dwell in and did nothing else i would be ok with that. but yeah she is a huge nanny state socialist. i fear that she would realize just how in debt France is that leaving the EU would make it worse …or so the elites would tell her in hope of scaring her to stay in the EU. i am all for the free trade aspect of the eu but there is sooo much more to it that is simply movement to a one world government.
i dont like conspiracies but when you see the stupid stuff the UN is doing like a stealth gun registry in Canada that starts soon , and these types of things i amok with EU falling apart . i would like simply 100% free trade agreement with USA. if it is made,grown,produced,created in USA or Canada it is absolutely free of all tariffs or hindrances.
Teachers are taught to place the SLOW children in groups with the SMART children. The belief is that … “all the POOR children need is a change of scenery” … to magically transform them into SMART students.
Yup. I heard that at the post-secondary institution where I used to teach. Setting standards, like is done at university, was considered elitist and elitism had to be to eradicated as any cost, unless it was a student out-performing an instructor.
“The belief is that … “all the POOR children need is a change of scenery”
Yea, hows dat working out yo Bitches & Hoes?
One of the eye-opening aspects of the article for me was the devastation of the middle-class; not from the usual suspects of taxation and poor employment prospects (although those are certainly factors) but of the pubic housing program that has favoured immigrants.
Sunday may indeed be France’s last chance. The upside is that the faster she sinks the more chance other western societies will have to heed her warning.
Obama’s HUD instituted rules to REQUIRE wealthy Suburbs to “accommodate” low income housing in their Zoning codes. With overreaching Federal rules to BAN any and all Design Review and Density ordinances that would (effectively) preclude low income housing. The Obama Admin. “Idea” is that PUTTING POOR PEOPLE into the Suburbs will magically make them smarter, better educated, and wealthier. Sadly, the Left has no clue about how wealth, and upwardly-mobile culture happens. None.
Exactly. At this point in France’s history she is what is needed. Maybe it is too late already, but it sounds like she will at least try to roll back the caliphate’s gradual takeover.
The Obama Admin. “Idea” is that PUTTING POOR PEOPLE into the Suburbs will magically make them smarter, better educated, and wealthier.
The actual outcome was the unrelenting spread of gangs, crime, violence and drug addiction into the suburbs. Not surprisingly the people making those relocation decisions live in exclusive gated communities shielded from the folly of their actions.
“He can bring the reforms France needs, such as increased globalization.”
Well, sure he can; par for the course. Have you any wool Unome? Three bags full, amirigt? Well no, that isn’t wool, is it you demented sheep? ☺️
I am not sure if she is what is needed. Feels to me more like she is the least reprehensible from a very bad lot. But you’re right she is going to push back the koranimal horde and that alone makes her more desirable than all other alternatives … she is still a national socialist though … which is still better than international socialists that stand against her.
Anyone who wants to stop the advance of the Caliphate is on the right track.
Anyone who wants the Caliphate to advance their world domination does not belong in Canada, and should go live in the MidEast.
“…and should go live in the MidEast.”
No not really they should not go on living…
Well now. France, yes, France. The coneheads are everywhere and they don’t get it.