Trump must now make an immediate choice: reinforce Afghanistan with no long term prospects of victory or watch it fall. The last two administrations have not brought victory over Islamic extremism any closer. To avoid defeat from attrition Trump will need a new approach. While none has been officially announced the outlines of a new strategy may be emerging from the actions it has so far taken.
Remove all troops from Afghanistan and let them kill each other until they are all dead.
Identify / isolate the Middle Eastern countries and groups that don’t share our values. Redraw political boundaries as needed.
Impose a North American ban on oil imports. (then we’ll discuss oil pipelines).
Work with groups that are interested in joining the 21st century.
If we go over there to fight their battles, they are all brothers against us. Left to themselves, the most brutal will win and rise to the top. They need to learn different values.
Maybe ‘not pissing off Russia’ is a part of that strategy.
Russia isn’t our best friend, but they aren’t our worst enemy either.
Putin probably gets it that Islamic terrorism threatens everybody.
Only Congress can declare war (Article I, Section 8). Without that declaration: No war.
If Congress does declare war, no exemptions for their children, their grandchildren, or themselves.
Only the ME understands the ME.
Get out and stay out.
I should have added: defend the only democracy there – Israel.
I am solidly in the camp that says … ‘let it fall’.
Afgans are mostly Sunnis. They have a long border with Iran. Iran helped with the initial NATO invasion lead by Bush. A successful overthrow of the existing government amps up a threat to the Iranian flank. The Russians certainly won’t move back in. One of the previous excuses for invading Afganistan was eliminating the opium production. Druggies have moved on from that to a more synthetic high.
All this aside I lean towards sympathy towards Iran. Strategically they are a better ally than the Saudis. We might not like their attitudes but they do have a democracy. It has always been the Saudis and Emirates (Sunni) who have funded world terrorism not the Iranians. The world stood by when Sadam invaded Iran, killing millions. I can see why they want a bomb and I can see why they do not trust anyone.
ME oil is becoming more irrelevant each year. If the Euros want Arab oil then perhaps they should take over management and they can pay the bills. I hope Trump cuts them loose.
After careful analysis of one of Slim Pickens most famous roles, I have concluded that the illegal alien problem and the Afghan, nay the entire ME strategy issue can be solved at the same time.
Sadly, the tribal nature of the culture in Afghanistan has perpetuated the ability of groups of violent extremists to cultivate jihad in spite of our efforts to the contrary. We have spent untold billions and lost thousands of our soldiers lives to try to change this dynamic and this has come to naught.
At this point, the only way to evaluate our presence in the country or not is to try to assess if our presence there has prevented enough attacks and violence on our shores so as to make the losses worth it. The answer is by necessity going to be a best guess and will be subjective to a great degree.
Our continued presence in country will necessarily place our soldiers at risk and these brave men and women need to know that their continued sacrifices will have a clear objective and a plan to achieve it. If all we are doing is marking time or if we do not have a clear path to victory we should leave.
Afghanistan has historically been a country where foreign nations armies go to die. No foreign nation has been able to create any real changes in the politics of the region and the nature of how the people there want to govern themselves. In every case, any attempt to institute a different form of government has reverted back to the tribal societies once the foreign forces have left.
I suggest that the current administration take an honest look at what our real chances of reducing terrorist activity would be if we stay in Afghanistan or not. Staying to continue reforming their society is not a good use of our precious resources when it does not benefit us here in the US.
Regime change in Iran could actually work. Much of Iran’s populace is actually very westernized, unlike Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.
The current regime is a threat, mad 12ers.
Iran is not a democracy, it is run my insane, sheep-shagging 12er mullahs, unelected ones.
Old White Guy, you forgot the “sell guns to both sides” part. I think the USA and Russia could turn a tidy profit selling SMALL arms to the Middle East for a hundred years. Let ’em go to it.
Just don’t sell them anything bigger than an AK-74. Seems more fair that way.
The strategy should be to accept that afganistan is not actually a nation-state, and contain it. If the current government falls, they will probably spend the next 10 years fighting amongst themselves.
A country of religious tribes (Afghanistan) that has a ‘fighting season’ isn’t interested in western values. Forget about it.
Iranians are Persians not Arabs. They have had their differences with their Islamic neighbours and on occasion have gone to war against them and when it suits them (common cause) they join with the Arabs. Islam binds them all.
Much as I liked Slim Pickins it’s probably too late to send the Air Force.
It would occur to me, the biggest way the US could effect Afghanistan would be to remove the US from being its largest market from the poppy fields. And the simplest way to do that would be to legalize cannabis. The logic follows, borrow from Milton Freedman of course, pot is hard to transport, it has a recognizable odor, easy for dogs to pick up on, bulky and low margin. So of course it is in the economic interest for drug dealers to push users to more profitable drugs, such as opiates. So, legalize Cannabis, and remove the massive economic incentive for illegal opiates.
Then, instead of trying to reform far away governments, how about helping Mexico fix itself. By not sucking off the best citizens, they should stay in their own country to make it stronger. Help the Mexican government stand out corruption.
And well, the US should probably work on standing out corruption here as well …..
Unless you are prepared to rule over the Islamic wastelands as an imperial power at huge expense of blood and treasure and for many decades, stay the hell out and leave that region, save Israel and those that are self-contained / restrained (Jordan, Egypt) for the Muslims that we don’t want as immigrants, refugees and or re-colonizers here. The US Navy should keep sea lanes open with extreme prejudice.
Putin probably gets it that Islamic demographics threaten everyone else, and Russian demographics aren’t any more robust than the rest of the non-Islamic world.
There are enough problems existing here in North America that need our undivided attention before we march off to try and instill our values on areas that have yet to emerge from their pre-medieval tribal societies. You cannot grant, gift, or cede democracy to a country or a group of people. Democracy has to be won and defended by a like-minded society until that fact is understood by the West we will be forever enmeshed in armed incursions, a task similar to cleaning out the Augean Stables. If we do not focus on the myriad of problems that we are creating in the West and solve them then the ideals of democracy that flowered here will wither and die. Peace and prosperity do not come unbidden, they have to be purchased and defended. We have for too long failed to recognize the costs paid by our forefathers in founding this democracy in the West. It is perhaps time to let other countries establish their own future and let us lead by example and create a democratic society in the West that is the vision of the men and women that began this ideal.
“It is better for them to die in Syria then to come back and ruin our homeland,” says Mohammed, a 45-year-old grocer in Amman, who says he knows of “several” families whose sons have travelled to Syria.”
I agree. It is better for them to die in Syria than to migrate to Canada.
I’d be surprised if they were still in Syria, truth be told.
As I understand it, it would be best if President Trump were to bring the troops and gear home. Everything.
Mullah Omar is dead. Osama bin Laden is dead.
These places are never going to be anything other than what they were before 9/11.
Trump gets it. Our soldiers over there are NOT making it safer here.
It’s letting them come over here that puts us in danger.
Agreed… get our troops out. It’s not our fight. We have much bigger problems at home that need our attention.
The late, great George Jonas had the best idea about how to deal with these shitholes: just keep supporting the underdogs. When the ones you’re funding gain the upper hand, send bullets and ammo to the other side.
Yes bring our troops home and have them defend our borders, then escort and deport those that advocate for “Sharia Law”, “Death to the Infidels”, “Freedom of Speech Go to Hell”, and the other banners and cultural demands they incite and protest under. When our country, culture and our children’s future is secure then and only then perhaps we could revisit our contribution to solving the problems of the world. Till then bring our armed forces home and use the foreign aid spent in ungrateful countries to re-establish the forces that have kept us free.
The sounds like the Neo-Cons imperialistic theory by Bill Kristal.. Poison the well with Russia..and rule the World
Naw! We can deal with Russia straight-up & unleash our technology that will explode their own Nuclear weapons in Iran & N Korea.. Self destruction is a hard lesson that will not repeated…
The destruction of Muslims/N Koreans is not the question, it is who inherits the pitiful survivors….
Y’all keep using the word “extremist”, I do not think it means what you think it means. Ayan Hirsi Ali is an extremist, possibly an apostate. People like the Ayatollah are the mainstream. And if you really think they will stay away if we simply leave them alone, well, you have just never studied history. Good luck with hoping the crocodile eats you last.