39 Replies to “We Don’t Need No Flaming Sparky Cars”

  1. Valuations, GAAP statements and analysis, logic, reason, physics, none of it matters to a Cult Stock. Market sentiment is high on Tesla and until something happens to change that, an eventual certainty, it flies on Cloud Nine. The only question is how will Elon Musk protect himself (lock-up his equity value) without appearing to be a rat abandoning his ship.

  3. Don’t fret, the US taxpayer has very deep pockets if it comes to bailing out Obamas green friends.

  5. Over the years I heard that they started selling them at $100,000 but had to raise the price (because they were losing money)to $125,000. And they still went in the hole. Then along came Obama’s green subsidy, and the last I heard they were selling at $75,000. I don’t know if that’s for the sports car or sedan or both, but that’s one hell of a subsidy. And they still lose money? Nice cars but obviously not a viable concept, even as playthings for the wealthy.

  6. I’m an AGW skeptic and as free market as they come, but Musk is doing breakthrough work on battery utility and private rocketry.
    Solar is undergoing the same exponential change on price and efficiency as we see with computers. It will be a cost effective and useful power source.
    Have govts thrown too much money too soon at it?
    Yes.
    Has Musk spent his entire fortune improving the technology?
    Yes.

  8. chip, there is no need to re-invent the wheel. They are being built and sold for all the wrong reasons. And battery technology would advance with out these useless boat anchor, so battery utility has come at a price too large and solar can not replace nuclear.

  9. Solar really can’t replace anything. And it most certainly isn’t anywhere near “environmentally friendly”. It is a dirty, government supported industry.

  10. I did the calculations for their two car Telsa test drives across the United States.
    They averaged 45 miles an hour and had to use 15 drivers.
    I know the two cars only carry 4 adults comfortably,
    so I guess the other 8 drivers rode on the hoods.
    They saved 136 gallons of gas, but used 1967 kHw of electricity at a cost of nearly 250 dollars.
    250 dollars would have bought 80 gallons of fuel, so they only saved 56 gallons which would have saved 168 dollars.
    Their down time for recharging the batteries is 16 hours,
    I guess they had several cactus for recharging stations, especially in Utah and Arizona.
    Total trip time across the USA is 3 days, pretty good for drivers running days and nights, plus the 16 hours spent charging the batteries, and 15 drivers having to piss beside the road.
    Add in another 175,000 dollars for the extra cost of the vehicles over ten years and you come up with about a minus-57 miles to the gallon.
    Are you shitting me?

  12. Market fundamentals ALWAYS ring true, though it may take time. Witness the oil and gold relationship we are currently seeing.
    Musk should be very afraid of a Republican Congress, finding will be reviewed for questionable greenie money

  13. Whether or not Elon Musk gets government money is irrelevant as far as Elon is concerned because he is going to get the money from some government or some investors somewhere. He is smart enough to do that and has proven so.
    You cannot become an automaker overnight. The scale that must be surmounted is incredible. THis endeavour will lose money for years. Maybe decades. But it will triumph and it will reshape the entire auto industry as Musk is selling his power train to all the leading automakers as part of his effort to scale growth and develop power infrastructure. He is also going manufacturer direct to consumer sales which is going to trim 20% out of his costs but also out of every other automobile’s costs as consumers demand the same for ICE cars.
    When Elon’s battery plant gets built and he sells his cars for $36 000 each I am going to buy one. I’ve already made enough on his stock to buy several!
    Do not underestimate Elon Musk. He will do to the auto sector what Jeff Bezos is doing to retail and what Gates, Jobs and the internet did to old media. The world is changing faster than it ever has in history and you are witness to it. Ignore him at your own risk!

  14. Keep drinking the Kool Aid chum.
    Nothing wrong with developing new technology, but money doesn’t lie. The stock is a pig disguised with layers of bright red lipstick.

  15. I guess they had several cactus for recharging stations, especially in Utah and Arizona.
    Currant bushes…
    THis endeavour will lose money for years. Maybe decades…I’ve already made enough on his stock to buy several!
    Heh, the typical socialist pyramid scheme, with the typical parasitic socialists attached.

  17. Part of the lipstick disguise is the fact that they are being given an additional subsidy based on a non existent ability to perform a quick change on the battery. Somehow the gov’t of California decided to provide more money if a maanufacturer developed a car and battery system that could be changed within some specified short time. Of course, there is no infrastructure to make this useful anyway, and the only evidence that Tesla provided that the car is capable is a video. Nobody has actually seen it done outside of a few Tesla engineers.

  18. I have the title for Elon Musk’s biography. “How to turn a billion dollars into a small fortune”.

  19. Canadian winter
    –
    Probably about -minus 200 miles per gallon,
    not including down time for having to walk..
    These cars are built around the Al Gore theory that all the ice and snow will be gone by the year 2015.
    Tropical Canadian Beaches with beautiful Canadian women walking around in their Bikinis..

  20. Beats waiting around for a show of skin above their uggs , but most if them are nearly an axe handle across the back end now

  21. LoL, calling me a socialist. Yup. When you are too lazy to present an argument just stereotype me and start calling people names. I am definitely not a socialist. Perhaps you are jealous that a little girl invested with a genius who developed Paypal and got in early when he went into Tesla. Someone here said the stock doesn’t lie. LoL. Good Lord, it has made millions for investors already that got in early!
    The thing is that with any new tech it is always going to be a crapshoot. There were hundreds of new car companies when ICE engines first came out but only a few were able to scale and survive.
    Its actually very good to pooh pooh from the sidelines and be a critic. It is healthy to be skeptical and that is what makes a good investor. But you also need to look at technology trajectory along with scalability and market uptake. All these are looking really positive given the number of vehicles on the road in high traffic density, warm states like Florida, Texas, Arizona and California, the rate tech is developing and being scaled up to manufacturing and the rate that other car companies are doing deals to license Tesla technology to help achieve overall scale.
    I hear critics say that only a lunatic would buy a Tesla and drive it here in our winters. Well duhhh genius. They are not meant to be driven here, at least in winter. And do you think Tesla cares about puny Canadian sales? Too funny!
    Ive sold most of my stock. And I think its still a 50:50 chance it will succeed. But I will unashamedly cheer for Tesla. I do not care where he gets his money from because he will get it from anyone anywhere. I would do the same if I were him. All I care about is that I make money on it and that he develops something that would be transformative and pretty cool to own.

  23. For someone so positive about Tesla, I question why you would sell most of your stock. You invested, you made some good coin and now you are bailing while the bailing is still good. In other words you think you see the future and it’s not too great. Cheering for a losing proposition after you sell most of your stock is not the usual standard. It just doesn’t compute. Investors generally hang on to stock that looks like it has a future.

  24. Do you know that Tesla gets a huge chunk of carbon cash from Calif.
    It’s not the car sales that keep them going. It’s the damn carbon tax.
    More government BS.

  25. Iola, don’t you recognize Crony Capitalism when you see it?
    What you have done is “pump and dump” the stock, typical of the sickness within the stock market.
    What you cannot fight is science, especially with magical thinking. Electronics, and power storage, seems to have a lot of magical thinkers within the financial markets, but, you can’t fight the laws of science. Electric storage will not have “quantum leaps” of capabilities.
    Tesla survives only by massive government subsidy……not a sign of a healthy business, just the sign of a HYPE MACHINE.
    If I owned stock with that kind of graph, I wuld have sold it yesterday. I prefer my stock ownership as blue chip, solid, UNSUBSIDIZED dividend paying stock, thank you very much.
    You can buy your facebook/Twitter/Tesla hype stocks all you want…..they’re built on a house of cards.

  26. I’d love to have one of these… if I had a $Million of play money…
    As a practical solution, they have some major issues to overcome.
    First off, the “Bricking” issue. Leave one too long away from the charger, they turn into a brick and can not be recharged. (Happened to a guy when he was away and a power fail tripped a breaker so the charger was offline…) Result? A $40,000 bill for a new battery. How many folks can afford that? How many folks can assure they will NEVER run the battery dry then not recharge it soon enough?
    In California (and the EU and the USA in general unless the Republicans can stop “electricity prices necessarily skyrocket” Obama: We have rapidly rising prices for electricity, rapidly dropping supply, and we are told to by electric cars. Really?
    In California in the Central Valley during peak summer demand, price can be just under $1 / kW-hr. Current filed tarrifs for other areas are for a move from $0.30 to $0.50 during more normal times. How are your economics going to pencil out then? Hmmm?
    BTW, if you use more than your “Baseline”, the rates charged “necessarily skyrocket” even during non-peak times.
    So just who can afford to sit for 8 hours in the roasting sun in the California summer waiting to afford to recharge the car?
    IMHO, it’s nothing but a rich person toy until they cure the bricking problem and get their hands off the electric grid / prices and let nuclear and coal make the juice. Otherwise the electricity costs kill it.

  27. Good points EM. Here is the thing; Elon Musk is always thinking 3 steps ahead. I will bet you he is already buying/building generation capacity and will presell electrical contracts to Tesla owners. He is not just out to disrupt the auto sector. He is going to blow up the power monopolies as well. He already owns Solar City which I am a little skeptical about but I know how he and his ilk think. They arent out to make a lot of money. They are out to disrupt, transform and change the world. They are out for legacy and to make their mark in history. The money while important is secondary. They are all about ROE. Return on Ego.
    Here is where I think he is going I am willing to wager that he will sell power to Tesla owners at lower than grid price and then this will allow owners to discharge power back into the grid from their cars when power prices are high. WHen you have hundreds of thousands of batteries sitting around that could power up the grid at peak price why not? I know he has thought of this. You watch. Its gonna happen. When the time is right I’m going to have fun investing in this play!

  28. Ok, this was interesting but now your logic has jumped the track and derailed completely. He will sell power to Tesla owners at a lower price ? The owners can sell it back when prices are high ? (DC to AC ?) Hundreds of thousands of batteries sitting around ? Have you checked to see how many Tesla’s are actually out there ? You were holding your own for a while but now I would guess the following :
    You really admire Elon Musk
    You never held any shares in Tesla.
    You are a student probably living with your parents.
    You are in way over your head talking to some of the grownups on this site.
    Other than that it was interesting, but you hung in there a little too long and blew your adult cover.

  29. Yes Peterj. This is what Elon Musk has in mind with respect to completely disrupting the way power is sold and distributed through monopolistic means. Elon is going to completely decentralize power production and he is going to use his batteries both in cars and homes as a means to arbitrage prices from the big power companies. He is giving control to the consumers of power by giving them the means to generate and store power and taking that away from centralized production. In the same way that the digital economy gave more power to the consumer. Now electrons are also going to be given to the consumer and they are going to have more control over how and when they produce, consume or sell these electrons. Its a two way grid. Not one way. Just like media is now two way not one way.
    Are you with me? Do you get what is going on here? Can you imagine how an investor needs to think about power and how to play this game? BTW, your assumptions about me are quite cute and amusing! But be careful, your hubris and false confidence leaves you very vulnerable. You are fearful. Do not be afraid. I suggest that you study up on this. You will find it very interesting! Always be skeptical but also be open to ideas and give them a fair chance!

  30. You seem like a nice lad so perhaps you can alleviate my fear and answer a few simple questions. Tesla has sold a grand total of 47 000 vehicles worldwide since start up. Most Tesla buyers (77%) are in the $100 000.+ income bracket. Tesla is hoping to sell 7000 units in the USA for 2014. I doubt if their customers worry about what it costs to charge their cars. After tying into the national grid (heh) to save a few bucks you feel that draining your Tesla when prices are high and charging it when prices are low is a great strategy that will insure the car never leaves the garage and even open the possibility of turning it into a brick ? Elon is going to decentralize power production with batteries (oh gawd, this is funny) when the inefficiency of today’s batteries are a major stumbling block in his own vehicles ? He is going to alter infrastructure he doesn’t own and turn every household into a battery storage facility with inverters because of why ? And this would save the consumer money, how ? Many more questions on this grand venture but have you looked at the chart at the top of this blog. With the GOP in control, do you really believe Elon will be sucking on the public teat much longer ? Hope not too many shareholder start reading this blog because it looks like pixie dust is all that’s keeping the dream alive. This is fun….your turn.

  31. Hey Peterj!
    I am glad that we are getting along a little better now! And I am a lass not a lad but I am part Scottish! LoL
    So the answer is Yes to all of the above.
    http://www.thestreet.com/story/12828337/2/elon-musks-telsa-panasonic-deal-will-transform-solar-energy-too.html
    This isn’t the greatest source necessarily but start here and explore and learn by linking out.
    Tesla’s battery factory now under construction outside of Reno is going to drive down the cost of energy storage in a big, big way. Combined with other efficiencies, this will allow Tesla to retail their electric cars for about $36,000 in a few years. But you can also think of this as not just a vehicle but as a mobile means to store electrons that can be exchanged with the grid.
    Now this article also refers to what I was talking about earlier whereby these batteries are not just for deployment in automobiles but rather they can be deployed anywhere and especially in homes. Now I know solar has had a bad rap these days but if you graph Swanson’s Law that predicts PV cost per kw for both panel costs and installation cost we are rapidly heading to parity with retail electrical cost. The cost has been dropping at a logarithmic rate since 1977 and this rate is predicted to continue to at least 2030. PV cost parity is highly dependent upon the interest rate used so its open for interpretation but still it is significant. Probably within the next 2 or 3 years we will hit parity at say a 5 to 7 % discount rate which is what a decent conservative mutual fund is going to make. Conversions are also going to depend on if/how the cost of an installation can be capitalized into the value of a home.
    Now I know solar has taken a lot of criticism but when you get past the disgusting politics and abuse and just look at the economics and physics, things start to get interesting. And don’t get caught up in all the politics of it, just hold your nose and look at the real science and economics of it. Once you get at or below retail power costs, this industry is going to explode. And with battery storage, now you can maintain title to a physical inventory of electrons that you can choose to sell or use depending upon your own needs or whatever peak power pricing may be if you are in a net metering jurisdiction. This is what I mean by giving the consumer control and title to power. Even if I pay a little more than sucking off the grid, I place a lot of value on being independent and telling the utilities to screw off just like I have done with the cable companies and the media companies.
    So be skeptical but do not ignore the reality either. I keep talking about trajectory and pretty quickly we are going to meet some pretty interesting intersections that are going to disrupt the status quo like you wouldn’t believe.

  32. Well written but this is a entirely different subject and has little to do with the Tesla itself. Solar power is often debated on this site, as are windmills, so save your notes and y’all come back now….. hear ? 🙂

  33. P.S. I think it’s great to have a “lass” take interest in a subject that’s primarily dominated by “lads”. Often get a different perspective on the subject.

  34. Any so-called enterprise that receives taxpayer money is socialist.
    Parasites who profit from said parasitic activity are socialists.

  37. Sugar daddy Obola’s welfare check must be late…weaklings such as this who can’t stand on their own aren’t worth the time of day.

  38. Ohhhh Stradi is a grumpy boy today! But behind the bombast is a little boy full of fear.
    So I do not care how a venture is capitalized. If I can make money of it I will so long as it is legal. I do not care how you label me. The world is not black and white. It is grey.
    So Stradi, when your kids are sick, do you take them to the hospital? Oh you do? Why you are nothing but a communist! Those hospitals are paid by the government! See what a hypocrite you are?
    Now let me tell you something Stradi. I was home birthed AND home schooled. Were you? I have never set foot in a hospital. I have consumed far less government funding than almost everyone I know. But if I am in need of one or when I have kids if they need one, I do not care how it is funded. I want those services in place. (and yes they could be delivered more efficiently privately but I am not a hypocrite like you and I will consume government provided services if it suits me). My choice.

  39. The difference is, tesla, and the parasites who profit, have a choice on being parasites on the taxpayer.
    Obviously their choice is to be parasites on the taxpayer. And, eventually, their vote will be influenced by who will best feed their parasitism.
    Calling that a ‘grey’ area, and pretending it isn’t socialism is a hallmark of the leftist. The fact is, your ‘profits’ come from the theft of someone’s labour. Nothing ‘grey’ about that.

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