None of the multiple computer simulations used by a UN climate-change agency for assessments of global warming appears good enough to predict how India’s monsoon will behave, two Indian scientists have said.
The researchers examined 10 simulations of future climate scenarios used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and found none could reproduce correctly the behaviour of even 20th-century rainfall.
Not a single model could simulate realistically key features of the Indian monsoon such as maximum activity over the Bay of Bengal and the Northeast and along the west coast, and minimum activity over the northwest, the researchers said. They have presented their analysis in a review paper in Current Trends in Science, a publication of the Indian Academy of Sciences.
In attempts to assess impacts of global warming, the IPCC considered 17 models of how climate would evolve as carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere rose. Some models predict more rainfall over India, but with great uncertainty.
“The models have very serious problems in simulating even 20th century monsoon patterns,” said Madhavan Rajeevan, a senior scientist at the National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Tirupati, and a co-author of the paper.
“When a model (computer simulation) cannot even show with reasonable accuracy monsoon behaviour in the past, there’s a big question mark over its ability to predict future patterns,” Rajeevan told The Telegraph.
Rajeevan and Ravi Nanjundiah, an atmospheric physicist at the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, and co-author of the paper, studied the capabilities of the 10 “best-performing” models developed by climate scientists in Europe, Japan and North America, ignoring seven models whose performance was worse.
Gee . . . climate models that don’t predict the climate.
Who woulda thunk it eh ?
Calling Dr. Fruit Fly.
And even if the models fit the past the test is always do they predict? That they dont even explain the past is the lowest of the bars the models have to jump.
The Indians and the Chinese are likely to shred ths nonesense, they have their own scientists and models and research.
Cant wait for inevitable reflex by the AGW crowd that demeans the Indians and Chines as 2nd and 3rd world scientists, not understanding the real science.
The Indian response is quite funny, fine if you believe it so much pay me, which sadly too many self hating ideologues from the West are willing to do……
At the end of the day there may well be an effect from the gaseous emissions industrial society generates. But as has been said many times, Wrong method + Right Answer = Bad Science and that ultimtely undercuts any case they may or may not have.
If this while issue gets deploiticized and drained of emotion then maybe we can actually figure out whats going on, and we have more than 50 days to save the world…geez how did that one get started.
Yep.
There’s a term amongst mathematical modelers for models can’t predict even “normal” past events from known past data.
Garbage.
Stephen at November 23, 2009 8:49 AM
[…If this while issue gets deploiticized and drained of emotion then maybe we can actually figure out whats going on, and we have more than 50 days to save the world…geez how did that one get started.]
Think about it. Reputations are built slowly but are destroyed instantly and irrevocably.
At this point, even carefully, genuinely peer-revued science is suspect–more than suspect actually….
But then the lefist bent of the EU is mystery, especially with the very massive,recent example of the failure of socialism, right on their eastern flank.
It’s like predicting weather…
Rain before 11—dark by midnight……
But … but, there was consensus between the computer models … right?
How about we stop obsessing with climate and start worrying about doing something about clean air and water. I think you would find a lot of people would gladly join in the fight for a cleaner environment. If we could actually DO something about climate I think we would have done so a long time ago. Naw lets just continue wasting our time and money to justify Gore/Suzuki travels around the world to tell us we are all evil. Oh and don’t forget Mo Strong and his plan to rule the world. Just one more dickwad Trudeau foisted upon the world.
Rick Rae, you got that right. Just think of all sewage and water treatment plants that could have been upgraded, the processes explored to make more fuel efficient vehicles, affordable methods of recycling developed and the list goes on,with the money blown on this gigantic AGW fraud.
Effin’ brilliant. The Wall Street Journal is covering some of this albeit gingerly, the craven miscreants.
Beginning in basic math we had to be able to prove our answer bu showing the calculations. I did not matter if your end answer was right, if yo could not prove it by accepted methodology you answer was not accepted.
If we hold middle school children to this standard would it not be reasonable to hold someone who is about to tax our socks off to the same standard???
Of course not. Reason, logic and debate are things of the past in our education system. Most debate centers around those who dare to reject flawed methodology and that involves ridcule by application of Alinsky’s rules. If as parents we have not countered the public indoctrination system and taken responsibility for the gaps ……