Watch now.
The chatter and concern of the past few weeks about Iraq being too insecure for a July transition of power is going to change.
As the countdown to June 30th begins, and there is no sign that the Bush administration is going to move the deadline, the talking points and the media coverage will shift. “Holding to the deadline” is going to be revised to “running away”. Watch for mention of the deadline to be buried deeply, or even dropped from news reports.
Every attack, every setback, every unexpected event that does not result in a postponement of the transition will be shouted forth as evidence that “Bush is rushing to get out”.
Why? Because confidence in Bush on leading the “war on terror” and finishing the job in Iraq is one of the polling points that consistantly puts him ahead of Kerry. That needs to be undermined. He will be accused of looking for an escape hatch before the Presidential elections – and personified as a weak, calculating coward who has betrayed the helpless Iraqi people to save his political skin.
Indeed, it is already beginning.
There will be more of this. Lots more. Mark my words.
Yesterday, or maybe the day before, ABC did an interview with Michael Oren – the former Israeli commando who wrote the definitive account of the Six Day War – and teased out this new thesis. Oren stated, correctly, that Israel’s pull-out from southern Lebanon – at the ferocious insistence of the Israeli left and a united UN-EU push – was seen by the Arab world as a sign of weakness and, accordingly as per Arab principle, inspired a new wave of terror from both Hezbollah and Arafat. That experience is wholly inapplicable to the US handover of sovereignty to Iraqis in June, but the interviewer nevertheless did a great job of building a tissue bridge between Oren’s perfectly correct closing line – “you cannot be perceived as having been chased out” – and the suggestion that a June 30 handover in Iraq would appear to be just such a ‘chasing out’ of American forces. The storyshift has already begun. This is, after all, the media’s last major shot at hurting Bush on Iraq policy before summer, the olympics and then the conventions, so I expect they’ll really give this last attempt the old college try.
Get out of my head!
We were just discussing this very idea, and even speculated that the prison coverage over kill is really a result of insecurity that the deadline is looming and Bush will keep his word (which the media hates, not nearly nuanced and parse-y enough for them), meanwhile they will argue the cut and run scenario while America is still engaged in Kosovo !
Good thing Instapundit noticed, and I hope a few more biggies point your way, for once it would be great to beat to the punch!
That will be a great blog achievement!
I saw the “chased out of Lebanon” story just a few days ago, as background in a news report. (CBC?) It was portrayed as a straightforward military defeat and retreat of the Israelis. I should have saved the link.
Didn’t Bush say, maybe during his last prime time press conference, that Iraqis won’t be getting “full” soverignty, or something like that? That might also become one of the new templates, that it’s all just a ‘pretend’ handover.
I’ve been manipulated by The Media, so forgive what must seem like a very obvious question: how is it not running away when no one knows who is going to be running Iraq in four weeks?
Also, remember all those news stories that quoted Rice and Powell saying that the most important decision of the occupation — who will run Iraq — will be left entirely up to Brahimi and the UN? Well, most of those stories mentioned how that policy kinda resembled the abandonment of every pre-war principle of the Bush administration.
So you’re a little behind the curve on predicting “bias” there, but nice hustle.
BM,
Some get it; others don’t; some still refuse to get it.
The bottom line? We’ll still run Iraq, regardless of who doesn’t “know” who is going to be running Iraq effective 30 June, 2004. The Iraqis are simply getting an interim government with limited powers in advance of January’s elections. This is a transitional hand-over; we’ll probably be there for quite some time.
Regardless, please tell us about your complaints with the U.S./NATO/UN occupation of Kosovo. I’m just dying to hear them…
Hmmm.
What has been happening is that various internal Iraqi Ministries have been forming up and running. A prime example is the Iraqi Foreign Ministry, which has now opened and staffed a number of embsassies along with sending delagations to the UN.
During the past year or so these Ministries have been rebuilt, workers recruited and trained and have been operating under CPA supervision. While not every needed Ministry has been fully formed, most have been.
What’s going to take place on June 30th is essentially a limited form of government. All of those Ministries and government functions that are not dependent upon elections will be coalesced into a functioning government. Instead of the CPA being the final word at every level, the CPA will be the over upper echeleon guilding force. So an Iraqi manager will be the one giving workers orders and not a CPA manager.
It’s pretty basic stuff. As elections take place, the elected officials will replace any CPA executives that were in those positions. It’s really a gradual hand-off process based on the election schedule.
and it is gathering steam
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGB36MKZLUD.html
If June 30 Handover Goes Badly, It Could Mean Mission Failure in Iraq
By Pete Yost Associated Press Writer
Published: May 23, 2004
WASHINGTON (AP) – President Bush is trying to calm anxieties about rising casualties and spreading violence in Iraq by promising to cede political power to an interim government of Iraqis on June 30, which the president insists will put that country firmly on a path to democracy.
In a Monday night speech, Bush will lay out details of the transfer at a time when his approval ratings are at the lowest level of his presidency and just six months before he faces the verdict of American voters on a second term. …..
predictable news! You started a new pastime, start taking bets!