Covid Modelling vs Reality

Unsettled Science Wuhan Flu 46 Comments

So how’d they do?

Side-note: Back in November when everyone was masked up and following “official” protocols I remember a CBC reporter tweeting about how it was the general public’s fault that the real world numbers weren’t lining up with the “models”. Which is the completely backwards way of looking at it.

46 Replies to “Covid Modelling vs Reality”

  1. First, “cases” as defined by Health Canada are not cases, they are positive test results which may or may not be accurate or meaningful. Most of the people that are classified as cases have not had the PCR results verified by a clinical visit with a competent health professional, they have just been given the PCR test. The PCR test has one use and one use only (as defined by Kary Mullis, its creator). It determines if a substance exists within a sample through a magnification where the contents of the sample is multiplied by up to 30 times (30 raised to the power of 2) and is then tested as to whether the target substance is present. It is not able to determined how much of the substance was present at the beginning, it cannot determine if the amount present is sufficient to cause illness in the patient, it cannot determine if the substance came from the source that could cause the “illness” that is being targeted ( in this case COVID) and once the sample multiplication goes beyond 30, the chances of the sample being contaminated by an outside source renders the result meaningless in increasing magnitude. Most Health organizations do not obey the 30 iteration rule and use something between 35 and 45 so the results are dead wrong. Kary Mullis stated categorically that PCR was never to be a diagnostic tool, that it could not replace the observations made by a physician.

    Now onto modelling. Modelling is meaningless unless the modeler clearly states his assumptions and his algorithm so that others with experience in the area of concern have the opportunity to discuss if those assumptions and the algorithm are valid. Anyone can produce a model with a minimum of programming experience. A good model will yield predictive results that will match what happens in reality in the near future (depending on the time frame being modelled). For example, in the last round of modelling for the province of Ontario, before the last lockdown that just ended, they were predicting 12,000 + cases per day. The actual numbers (if you believe the PCR testing and case count as described above) were less that 1100 per day.

    And then there is the definition of pandemic. 10 years ago, at the time of the H1N1 infection, the CDC changed the definition of a pandemic from a percentage of the population dying from a specific pathogen with numbers above the observed normal mortality rate for a period of time to people just dying whether or not it exceeded previous historical norms. Our current mortality rate does not exceed the rates from prior years, and some causes of death, like flu, for example, have completely disappeared from this past year’s statistics because of bad diagnosis or non-existent clinical diagnosis due to the ever pervasive PCR test. How is it possible for the flu to disappear completely without human intervention?

    So when starts talking about modelling and PCR, my reaction is to stop listening. It is not to be believed without observation of other symptoms by a human being.

    1. CodexCoder you are absolutely correct. Well stated. The government can manufacture any number of spikes or waves, in either direction just by fiddling with the amplification of the PCR test. Which appears to be what the have done and are doing.
      The politicians and non-elected health officials need to be held criminally responsible for the deaths and harm they have caused by their tyrannical lockdown measures.

      2. This supposed Pandemic is / was a Fully PLANNED & EXECUTED ON PURPOSE charade designed to funnel the entire Western Hemisphere populace to the seeming panacea of supposed vaccines…. HERDED in fact. For that’s precisely what has occurred.

        As per VAERS (CDC).
        995 Dead to date…and ZERO data on potential latent Lethality.

        “They want us all dead” …just not all at the same time apparently.

        Any questions…??

    2. Why is it that our publuc health experts do not understand this? I think that many of these “experts” are simple minded. They accept simple narratives without questioning the logic. Most are heavily influenced by corrupt agencies like the WHO, CDC. In the case of Health Canada, I just do not think they are very smart people making decisions.

      1. Why do you think they’re in government?
        It’s a safe bet that Bonnie Bullshit or Two-Bag Tam would be shit at actual doctoring.

        1. Bonnie Bullshit hasn’t “practiced” in over 20 years. She is merely an overpaid bureaucratic Karen reading her daily fake news, sometimes as a scold, other times as a seemingly hung over or medicated drone.
          Ditto for Tam, although I can’t look at it. Hell, I can’t even look at any of them without getting pissed off.

          1. Bonnie FrankenHenry has blood of all the missed cancer treatments, suicides and increased opoid deaths on her hands.

      2. Linda..

        I’m convinced the entire lot of GOVT PAID HEALTH MOUTHPIECES….alongside their adoring Premiers have been Co-opted by those who have planned this totally BS Shitshow.

    3. just one little quibble, the 2 to the power of 30, not 30 to the power of 2… each cycle of the test doubles the amount in a sample, and is being run up to 40 times….

    4. Absolutely 100% cases are not fatalities. In fact clinical researchers examining specimens have not been able to find the fabled Covid. All they are finding only flu bugs.
      This is Political Pandemic.
      Example in the 1918 Flu that killed over 4,000 Albertans. By the time the infection was over, Alberta would officially record 38,308 cases with 4,380 deaths (cf. 40,000 to 60,000 deaths in Canada) in a population of 500,000. Many felt this under-reported the cases. In Calgary. The first wave arrived in Calgary on October 2, 1918.

    5. CodexCoder:
      WOW, that was a superb post. Thank you.

      I did watch the whole thing.
      I agree with him 100%!!!!!!!!
      HE IS CONFUSED.
      I’m not. VOWG is not. LindaL is not. CodexCoder is not.
      Nor are most commenters here.

      How many scared brainwashed people do you know whom you would send this mess to? Me? Zero.

  2. I have been shrieking this since day 1. Given that I am a professional model builder and analyst, the fact that NONE of my colleagues has done ANY serious work with Covid modeling, and just blindly accepted the results of epidemiologists with scant experience in vetting and validation, is, to me, borderline criminal.

    The model building, vetting and calibration standards for this “pandemic” are WAY WORSE than those that blew up the financial system in 2008.

  3. Much like climate change…no matter what happens…it would be worse if we didn’t do more.

    Can’t win the argument.

  4. Who was the CBC reporter?! Don’t leave me in suspense. They mutually excel one another in stupidity and lack of imagination.

    1. CBC reporter? That idiot CBC diversity hire Natasha Fatah did not even know that sailboats lean in the wind. She was panicking doing a broadcast with Greta Tooonberg coming into New Yawk harbour and thought that the leaned over sailboat was in trouble. Andrew “Wooden” Nichols had to set her straight whilst stifling what was clearly in danger of being a good belly laugh.

  5. The Country of Nepal said no to shut downs in July/2020. This is no exactly a rich country with a
    first world medical system. Based on worldometer numbers Canada’s death rate from the “virus”is over 800% higher than Nepal’s . This information places me in such a rage I can only think in f words. Please decimate this information to everyone you know. This is a country of 30 million so is not that much smaller than Canada.

    Nepal 70 deaths/ 1 million
    Canada 568 deaths/1 million

    https://thehimalayantimes.com/nepal/nepal-no-longer-under-lockdown-heres-what-will-run-now-and-what-still-wont
    https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/feb/11/its-as-if-theres-no-covid-nepal-defies-pandemic-amid-a-broken-economy
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/nepal/

    1. This is Political Pandemic.
      Example in the 1918 Flu that killed over 4,000 Albertans. By the time the infection was over, Alberta would officially record 38,308 cases with 4,380 deaths (cf. 40,000 to 60,000 deaths in Canada) in a population of 500,000. Many felt this under-reported the cases. In Calgary. The first wave arrived in Calgary on October 2, 1918.

    2. Nepal, along with not locking down, probably did NOT restrict the treatments that have proven to be so effective like Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine. What enrages me most is that sick people in this country were REFUSED readily available and efficacious treatment. That counts as murder in my eyes. All these public health leaders and political tyrants should swing for that.

    3. The gov is playing with numbers. In my small circle I have heard of several families that had elderly loved ones die of chronic illness, but death certificate said Covid.
      One lady is so enraged she has hired a lawyer. Another one is a cashier at local grocery store. She is upset but cannot fight the $y$tem.
      How many others?

    4. IDK, I really think lockdowns are harmful however…I don’t believe data from coutries with a seriously underdeveloped medical system necessarily prove the point. We need serious data points, of which there are many, and Nepal is not one of those points. Try Marseille, France which uses HCQ (and if you sprechen French look up Didier Raoult). And yes, I agree that countries which use HCQ and Ivermectin are smart and are saving lives…

      1. Agreed Cheburashka.

        In addition, The amount of TRACTION that VITAMIN D has been given is Criminal in its own Right.

        Not one Publicly paid mouthpiece, on the ENTIRE FUCKING PLANET be they a Politician, a Health “expert” or Urinalist has said boo about that…
        WHY…???

        More Criminality and It continues to fortify my belief they want us DEAD

  6. The very fact that we allow the government to set any policy using any models at all is the problem. Governing a population doesn’t require modeling, but the mission creep of the government has, over the last century, become a mission steamroller rolling over all sorts of natural rights, as opposed to the true roll of government, which is to secure these rights. The whole “liberal/conservative” shtick the PTBs use is Machiavellian in its entirety. Machiavelli’s “The Prince” was also a cautionary tale, like 1984 is, but it has been used as an instruction manual from the get-go.

  7. And …The current attempt to extend the “State of Emergency” is based on….Modelling the potential of the variants..
    Which is a combination of so many unknowns as to be less useful than wild supposition and mass panic.
    I am coming to see,that “modelling” of the problem is more real ,to the defectives in government,than reality.
    Real world too messy and ,well real.
    Nice comforting computer output?
    Ooh “Thats the gospel”.

    Then throw in a dash of authoritarianism for incompetents..
    There you have it.
    A 12 months “Two Weeks”.
    Their 2 weeks are up.
    Fire ’em all.

  8. Meanwhile Politicians and their un-elected so-called Health Officers are getting ready to celebrate their first anniversary of 14 days to flatten the curve.

  10. L- To understand the Fed. Gov’t. response to the Wuhan virus. You need clause ‘699’.
    Of course, should they legislate clause ‘699’ nationally for all. Then we’d all have lots of
    money. It wouldn’t buy much of anything, but reality or discussion thereof is “hate speech”.
    —————————————————————————————————————————————–
    Federal workers paid $819 million to stay home during the pandemic under ‘699’ clause
    https://www.ckom.com/2021/02/20/federal-workers-paid-819-million-to-stay-home-during-the-pandemic-under-e28098699e28099-clause/

    1. That’s what I thought. So, if true, I do not understand how they are now finding “variants”. Makes no sense. If anyone has ideas on this, please comment.

      1. LindaL:

        You are projecting your own responsible citizen integrity upon these people. They are not like you or me. They are marxist racketeers. This is not about a virus and by their own definition of some 10 years ago, this is not a pandemic.

      2. As explained to me by a Lab tech: they count markers that are expected or known to be present with the virus.
        For example: in pregnancy tests there are enymes, chemicals and proteins that are tabulated, if the numbers meet *markers* it is a positive preg test.
        Same for this little virus…they count markers. And one of the tests actually *stretches and distorts* the sample, but hey, if markers are up…Bingo! Positive Covid19.
        Do you feel safer now? 😉

  12. When you are being lock-down for 8 weeks because of some Health Ministry protocol based on some modelling while there is 1 covid hospitalization for a population of 160,000 then something doesn’t add up.

    SDA Readers who are wondering where has the flu gone …Ivor Cummins gives brief explanation @ 1:45 (link to book provided)
    Urgent Viral Update: the Madness in Ireland, is happening all over…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdKkZLqhmDM

    Cummins encourages people to get on the blower with their politicians. Make them feel the heat.
    Otherwise Tam will keep forcing more crap on us.

  13. It is amazing that if you are a public health official you can get away with crazy innacurate modelling…all while screwing with the lives of the citizenry of an entire country. I’d say that they played too much Sims as children but they’re too old for that.

    1. Kelly says he does not know what to say about his findings.

      Just say it!!!
      Fearmongering, that is all.

  14. Seems Mr. Brown’s concerns are well- and widely-shared:

    https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/health-officials-can-t-explain-dr-tam-s-rocket-ship-modelling/ar-BB1dQ7uw?ocid=msedgntp

    The article’s by Anthony Furey @ Toronto Sun.

    Please draw your own conclusions: if this was (1) a well-designed conspiracy against the Canadian public or (2) a competent risk/benefit-weighted analysis featuring probabilistic outcomes, I doubt there would be the kinds of long-faced non-answers we have received to date.

    I’m personally going with (1) a completely risk-averse CYA assessment from government officials who have no idea what they are talking about other than how to escape blame for any mistakes in public policy that would otherwise redound back onto them or (2) cattle-feed for the legacy media by way of a political stunt to give Trudeau, Jr. something to fight with the Premiers about (seems to be the CBC line since last Tuesday).

  18. Government healthcare means that everyone’s either a patient or a potential patient.
    Take your medicine, wear your mask, and you’ll find out why hospital robes don’t cover your backside come the next Budget.
    Free is just a four letter word.

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