Greg Staples is running the numbers, now that both Kilgour and Cadman have announced they’ll vote to defeat the government;
Liberal + NDP + MP Parrish = 151
Conservative + Bloc Quebecois + MP Kilgour + MP Cadman = 155
As he notes, even with two Conservatives too ill to travel, it renders Jack Layton’s attention seeking ploy irrelevant. Damian Brooks makes a good point in the comments – with so many prominant Libranos heading down the gangplank and hoping to swim to safe diplomatic and patronage posts, how many back-bench Liberals will abandon ship?
So that puts us at what, May 3-ish for the fall of the government? Just in time for the pub ban to be raised on the inquiry and the new info to get out…
Just curious.. what’s the incentive for the independents to vote with the Conservatives and the Bloc? The chance that they’ll be replaced with Conservatives in the next election, losing their jobs?
Todd:
Kilgour has already said he will not be running again, and Cadman is undergoing serious cancer treatments back in BC and is also extremely unlikely to stand for re-election.
Thus the concern about being replaced by someone else doesn’t seem to enter into it.
If there are a couple of Cons to sick to travel wouldn’t it make sense that there may be a few libs or ndp that might not be able to make the vote?
It’s possible but it can’t be relied on…
Lies, damned lies, and STATISTICS!
Really? Where is he getting his numbers? According to this site the numbers break a bit differently, but still in favour of the Conservatives/Bloc being able to bring down the government, even with two Conservatives unable to make the vote–but it’s not by much of a margin.
Discounting the two Conservatives, you get 97 Conservatives + 54 Bloc + 2 independent = 153 vs. 132 Liberals + 19 NDP + Parrish = 152. They can do it, but barely.
http://www.cbc.ca/story/canada/national/2005/04/26/pettigrew-oas050426.html
As this CBC story suggests, Pierre Pettigrew is first out of the gate.
Please don’t all rush at once and will the last Liberal leaving please turn out the lights and close the door! Thank you.
Peter, you are including the Speaker who vote only if there is a tie.
Lib. 131
N.D.P. 19
Parrish 1
Total 151
Cons. 99
B.Q. 54
Ind. 2
less ill -2
Total 153
And I am seriously looking for some of those 34 back benchers who voted against same sex marriage admendment a week or so ago! Even if half of them find the cojones I see it breaking down this way:
Conservatives: 150 seats. Bloc: 60 seats. NDP: 25 seats. Liberals: 73 seats.
If there is any justice most of those 73 seats should go to the Conservatives, but we can’t be too hopeful that everybody in Ontario will actually get it about the Liberals.
IF all MPs listen to their constituents, I see the vote to bring down the Liberal minority government this way:
Conservative: 99. Bloc: 54. NDP: 9. Liberal: 17:
For Non-Confidence: 179+2 Independents
Against:126+1 Independent( Carolyn Parrish)Thrown out but still loyal!
For Non-Confidence: 181
Against: 127
IF those Lib back benchers can’t see the forest for the trees and vote with the party, glub, glubbing all the way down the vote breaks down this way: 164 For Non-Confidence
144 Against.
Now, give All the NDP vote to the Libs too: We are still at 155 to 153.
The Speaker’s vote never comes into it.
IF any of these people in all these breakdowns vote according to what they think is right and not political expediency it is a complete rout.
WOOHOO bye bye Pettigrew!
It’s not that Parrish is loyal; it’s just that she’ll have to find a new job after the election, and would rather stall for as long as possible.
New broom sweeps clean and it would be a fine thing if it’s first job is Martin and Parrish.
Onwards and Upwards.
Cnews:
Irate Newfoundland crab fishermen flush Canadian Navy destroyer(s) out to sea. Battle of the Atlantic II; Hurrah for Newfoundland.
Search for the “Kronstadt Rebellion”; the Reds, Lenin, Stalin, Trotsky, and etc., killed the counter-revolution on the frozen ice, slaughtered the sailors; blood on the ice; human blood, not baby seal blood, not HepC infected blood (Thank you Martin, Rock & Connaught Labs.)
Up with Newfoundland.
up with Alberta.
Up with Canada.
Holy shit Maz2, Canada’s Navy has a destroyer. Now that is news. When did that happen? Did the crab fishermen sink it?
Chuck Cadman ran as an indepentant last time and won and will run as an independant again and win. Would you vote against a guy undergoing serious cancer treatments who just saved Canada from 10 more months of dithers.
Newfoundland Speaker closes public gallery in legislature building indefinitely. Purported reason: the angry crab fishermen are revolting against “Authority”. Cnews.
“I’se the by….”
Bully to to the crab fishermen. Go for it.
Of course, Newfoundlanders are not Canadians.
Newfoundlanders have passion in their veins.
(An Upper Canadian).
Maz2 – we need more Newfie crab farmers and perhaps we could have enough to storm Parliament Hill and actually overthrow those idiots and put some sensible people in there… like crab fisherman from Newfoundland!
You know, the more I think of it the more I really have to call into question the last three election results. I think this whole scandal has made me realize that nothing is impossible in Canada anymore. What is to say that if these thugs materminded a scheme like this to rip taxpayers off, why wouldn’t they try vote rigging at the ballot boxes at a few key, too-close-to call ridings? I do not put anything past the Liberal party of Canada to attempt.