Anyone reading the comment sections of various media outlets has seen some person using the Calgary flooding of 2005 and the event last as 2 ‘hundred year storms’ within seven years. While not always, the events are generally used to link AGW to the Calgary flood.
This article spells out nicely just what, ‘a hundred year’ event is.
tldr; A one in one hundred chance that a regionally based amount of rainfall/snowfall/flood volume will happen over a specified amount of time every year.
I’ve heard the amount of rainfall in SW Alberta triggering the ‘hundred year storm’ designation was 12″ in 12 hours. I have no idea if that is accurate.
So, the next time you see someone say, “I’ve seen a lot of these hundred years storms! Must be AGW!”, roll your eyes and have sympathy, they are illiterate.
Moreover, there could be a “100 year storm” every year for 100 consecutive years, and then no such event for the next 10,000 consecutive years, and the event rate would still be…1 per 100 years. Thinking geologically, that is.
So, the next time you see someone say, “I’ve seen a lot of these hundred years storms! Must be AGW!”,
Actually, that is the wrong responsw. The correct response should be “I must be over 500 years old!”
something more to consider — statistics is based on data. Calgary has been settled in 1875 first as a NWMP post and later a settlement along the CPR. At best, we may have 138 years worth of data. Okay that gives us a feel for short term trends but does not really give a good statistical feel of climate variances over say a millenium or 10k years or 100,000 years.
Global warming is a pseudo science because the earth is 4.5 billion years old and we have only real compreshensive data except for the last 100-150 years. It is the equivalent of 3.33 x10-6 percent of the life of the planet. That is the equivalent of extrapolating a mathematical relationship from a single data point. People forget we live in a dynamic world and nothing stays the same.
Give another 100 years and we will have the anti-continental drift lobby.
Heh, which means the designation means exactly nothing.
Figures lie and liars figure
to include the past 10000 years into the Calgary data set would be fascinating as it would include one mile of ice. It would also include a glacial rush forward at 400 years ago and the younger Dryas , not to be confused by violin players with a non wet bum
to include the past 10000 years into the Calgary data set would be fascinating as it would include one mile of ice.
Why not, one is as arbitrary as the other. I guess whatever set works to get the most from the treasury.
It’s a statistical extrapolation, of some use. I am more familiar with the 100 year wave than the 100 year storm; but the basic concept is the same. The 100 year wave is used in designing e.g. offshore oil platforms, which are only intended for use for about 30 years. Overdesign is wasteful, so one wants some kind of semi-rational criterion of sufficient design.
If I remember correctly the 100 year wave at the Hibernia platform is 13 m.
Poor Strad, still playing the worlds tiniest violin?
Heh,
Interesting stuff.
Some 20 years ago the engineering company that this agent was employed by, was designing a new project for a company called Calgary Power at the time. It has a new name today.
Nonetheless, we were working on a project of a spillway at the Bearspaw hydro dam just west of the town at the time. You can see it today on your google map. It’s on your right looking at the dam upstream of the Bow.
This spillway was built in honor of a 10,000 (ten thousand) year flood.
Cool, ain’it.
Seems though it did not help with the 100 year flood.
New report at the CEEB says Redford expects recovery/rebuild to take 10 years!
I say … only if ALbertans are stupid enough to wait for her and her friends.
Stay tuned for new taxes in AB to cover the “Once in a lifetime” crisis.
“Seems though it did not help with the 100 year flood.”
Heh… why not? Poor engineering; or improper installation?
The article makes some sense, but still misleading for the public. I like “gerry from gta’s” thinking.
Announcers will say things like, “These types of storms [floods] only happen every 200 years.” Usually ending with “And we’ve had two this decade. Woe is us. AGW is upon us.” Whatever!
As noted, we have http://peel.library.ualberta.ca/pcimages/PC/004/web/PC004088.jpg
End of rant. ☺
Opps….missed a paragraph … ??
As noted, we have
Truncating messages??
As noted, we have
Overdesign is wasteful, so one wants some kind of semi-rational criterion of sufficient design.
It gives an excuse in case anything untoward happens. Not very useful otherwise. The Ocean Ranger was, supposedly, designed for 34 m waves, and still sank. The maximum wave at the time was 20 m.
I guess the problem wasn’t one of overdesign…
Anyone with a brain can see that this flooding was caused by global raining.
Anyone who has an adequate attention span and no ability for hyperbole should be able to distinguish a once-in-a-while event from the day-to-day. We are seeing melodrama take over. Granted the flood in Calgary, from all accounts, is epic but for anyone to capitalise on this deliberately or accidentally is setting themselves up for a fall.
I posted on this topic on my FB page …. sure as heck … the majority of responses think it proves glowbull warming.
Actually,
you see the human mind, as much as it thinks so, has no capacity to contradict the nature.
There is not enough money in the world to account for every possibility.
It has been corrrected by nature hundreds of times.
If somebody thinks so, they will be for ever surprised.
….and the amount that Redford collects from this tax to pay for the damage from the 100 year storm will far exceed the amount that the government actually give to Calgary and other storm damaged communities and will continue long after all the bills are paid….sort of like income tax was meant to pay for WW I.
> And bet that your house insurance goes up by 50% in 2014. Bet on it.
I’ll bet against you on that. There’s no such thing as residential flood insurance in Canada, ergo there’s no reason whatsoever for home insurance to go up. Hence the billions being committed by government. Socialized moral hazard. That was a terrible place to build; here, do it again.
I have a terrible feeling that Strad is from Redmonton
statistically speaking , the 10000year flood is likely not twice what the 100 year flood is.
the flood waters of 10000 years ago , when the ice dam broke downstream of the current site of Calgary would have been significantly larger
next time you come in for a busk on the mall there Strad , have a look at the bench lands just around 19 street and imagine a lake to that level , and a breach and the whole channel opening up and eroding from about 5 ave N to about 17ave S . almost 2 miles.
fiddle me this.
Grow up omag, if Alberta was not sending 12 to 13 billion a year to the rest of Canada there would be a surplus to deal with this. Where I was working upstream of the Pekisko creek there was 10 inches of rain in less than 8 hours, that had to go downhill, that’s how gravity works, unfortunately High River was named that for a reason, and it was in the way of all that water. The real reason this was so devastating is because of brain dead environMENTALists stopping levys being built, short sighted idiots in the DFO and Environment departments of govt. stopping common sense from dealing with these problems ahead of time, has nothing to do with the politicians who freed up 1 billion today with more to come, stop being an ass before there is a reason.
I bet there’s some contractors and suppliers starting to salivate 🙂
1 billion is a lot of wealth to redistribute.
Two hundred-year-storms in the last seven years someone says?
That must be the guy who gets up at six o’clock in the morning regardless of what time it is. Or maybe it’s the guy who is convinced that this storm was absolutely unique, except for the one before it, which was identical.
has anyone noticed that Nenshi and friends want to push more people to live in the ‘trendy’ areas that were all flooded? Instead of high and dry suburbia?
Also I’m glad I had a private means of conveyance as I was still able to get around as proven time and time again that public transit system completely failed.
When Red Ed Stelmach came to power, Alberta had an $8 Billion surplus and zero debt. If Alberta was not sending 12 to 13 billion a year to the rest of Canada the Progressives in Edmonton would still be in debt and there would still be no surplus.
Where I live in Airdrie there was no flooding. That means it was local weather not Global Warming.
uy storm insurance and don’t listen to AGW junk heads – this happens all the time all over the globe and always has.
K Stricker
You are correct that insurance does not cover flooding. Still, there will be claims and the industry will use anything to increase premiums. The insurance industry will use the “more severe weather” to stick it to us. We got letters a few months ago telling us about “more extreme weather” and we’d be paying the bill.
There is no more extreme weather today, there are just more people and more people building in flood plains and wash zones.
Yes, insurance premiums will go way up.
Five bucks? ☺
The paragraph that got trunctaed was:
As noted, we have less than 150 years of valid stream and weather data for Alberta…a blink in time since the last glaciation. In order to say “every 200 years” with authority, you’d need (say) 20 centuries of rain or flood data so you could establish an average interval and an interval standard deviation (or other statistic.) Anything else is mere literary license with no basis in statistical science…and very misleading.
Note: I used the “less than” character and the system here does not like it and stops a while paragrpah whenever the character is used.
Grow up omag … really? WTF is your problem?