In late October, the New York Times reported that a study by a survey team from Johns Hopkins University found that 100,000 Iraqi civilians have died as a result of the war. Unsurprisingly, this figure has been added to the rhetoric of the finger pointing sect. Don’t expect it to fade away any time soon.
In Slate, Fred Kaplan fills in the absent explanation of the “mathology” employed.
The report’s authors derive this figure by estimating how many Iraqis died in a 14-month period before the U.S. invasion, conducting surveys on how many died in a similar period after the invasion began (more on those surveys later), and subtracting the difference. That difference�the number of “extra” deaths in the post-invasion period – signifies the war’s toll. That number is 98,000. But read the passage that cites the calculation more fully:
We estimate there were 98,000 extra deaths (95% CI 8000-194 000) during the post-war period.
Readers who are accustomed to perusing statistical documents know what the set of numbers in the parentheses means. For the other 99.9 percent of you, I’ll spell it out in plain English – which, disturbingly, the study never does. It means that the authors are 95 percent confident that the war-caused deaths totaled some number between 8,000 and 194,000. (The number cited in plain language 98,000 is roughly at the halfway point in this absurdly vast range.)
In other words, calculated using loose mix of algebra and astrology.