17 Replies to “And How Was Your Day?”

  1. Speaking about POTASH, I’ve read a couple of “conspiracy theory” stories that the world has only 200 to 250 years worth of potash on the whole planet ,at today’s Billions of population and future growth of population potentials.

    That 200-250 years worth includes future discoveries of potash in other locations around the world.
    And what it means is that with a population of the planet of only 500 Million people there would be enough potash to last for thousands of years.
    .
    But at today’s multi-billion population and still growing the world will run out of potash in 250 years tops.
    And there is no replacement for Potash,except Bat Guano and bird droppings.
    Just putting that out there as something I’ve read about on more than one occasion.

    1. Mostly nonsense, Mr.Greg. Potash is simply various compounds of potassium. If the price rises and demand increases it will simply ensure that potassium fertilizers are manufactured rather than simply extracted.

    2. Was that published by the same “expert” who said we would run out of oil in the 1980’s?

      A buddy of mine asked why I was going to be a petroleum geologist (this would be 1979) when the oil would be all gone shortly.

      Mineral reserves are a subject that is taught over 3 – 4 months at most universities teaching geology and that really is only the introduction to the subject … THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS.

    3. Potash is a nonrenewable, same as many materials we consume as humans – most notably petroleum products. We are very short sighted as a species that can actually see further than just producing another generation.

      1. Quite right. The population birth rates of all OECD nations is well below replacement rates. All have decreasing natural population growth now, and have been so for many years. The population growth rates in China and Japan are so far below replacement that their populations will approximately halve with each generation. Population growth in the world is primarily confined to India, Pakistan, Indonesia and large parts of South America and Africa.

  2. I would not run out of sleep worrying of an immanent dearth of potash. If I recall correctly, proven reserves are about 1000 years at current rates. And that is just the stuff that we think is worth mining right now and that we’ve bothered to document. About half of Saskatchewan is underlain with the potash layer.

    There are other sources of potassium, but mining potash at the moment, happens to be cheaper than other sources, such as processed animal dung or burning wood. Also, potassium cycles through the system and it is indeed “reusable” if looked at in a certain way.

    The ocean is a vast repository of this type of chemical and it is rather easy to get at, relatively speaking.

    We have plenty of short term issues that might actually kill us all, such as a misguided belief in socialism, so I really don’t worry much about running out of potash.

    1. Entirely right on every count. Potassium is the 7th most common element on the earth’s crust. It’s about 2.6 per cent of the Earth’s crust by mass. The notion of running out of potassium for fertilizer is utterly absurd compared to a host of other things (like socialism).

      1. The only control of population that we don’t have seems to be of socialists. There seems to be no shortage of them as they are high up on the predator list.

  3. I have a very $$$ wealthy Great Uncle … sadly too far removed from any inheritance hope. He is a Stanford Business grad from back when they weren’t a woke, leftist, nonsensical institution. After he retired from the corporate world, he bought distressed companies … reorganized and restored them to profitability … then sold them off for $$$Big Profits. Yeah … sort of “Bar Rescue” at a much higher level. I remember his most successful turnaround was a potash company.

  4. Mineral reserves are calculated using discounted cash flow methodology. You can look that up and see how it all comes together, but simplistically, a ton of potash mined today is worth say $200. If it’s to be mined next year, it is worth $190 if the discount rate is 5%, then $180.50 two years from now, and $171.48 three years down the road. Carry on, and after a few decades, the discounted price will be too low to bother spending any money whatsoever in drilling (expensive) sample holes to ascertain that the potash seam is still there. Extrapolating between mining properties, mineral resources are evidently present for centuries. Reserves can be proven up when operating details and prices are established.

    I’ve seen potash mining people wave their arms and quote mine lives of 800 years. So relax, people, take it easy.

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