A bit of good news.

Medical authorities in China have said a drug used in Japan to treat new strains of influenza appeared to be effective in coronavirus patients, Japanese media said on Wednesday.
 
Zhang Xinmin, an official at China’s science and technology ministry, said favipiravir, developed by a subsidiary of Fujifilm, had produced encouraging outcomes in clinical trials in Wuhan and Shenzhen involving 340 patients.
 
“It has a high degree of safety and is clearly effective in treatment,” Zhang told reporters on Tuesday.
 

Patients who were given the medicine in Shenzhen turned negative for the virus after a median of four days after becoming positive, compared with a median of 11 days for those who were not treated with the drug, public broadcaster NHK said.
 
In addition, X-rays confirmed improvements in lung condition in about 91% of the patients who were treated with favipiravir, compared to 62% or those without the drug.
 
Fujifilm Toyama Chemical, which developed the drug – also known as Avigan – in 2014, has declined to comment on the claims.

It’s not effective in advanced cases, but antivirals that help moderately sick people from getting worse is progress.

Unless the corrupt, paid off politicians get in the way, this enormous event in our lifetime is going to force MAJOR changes with where our products are made:

As anticipated…. stores start next phase of tighter hours of operation because fulfillment cannot meet demand. https://t.co/v1FfqhuX26

— TheLastRefuge (@TheLastRefuge2) March 18, 2020

Detail here;

The Inversion – Big chain markets; those who spent millions developing their own proprietary ‘just-in-time’ distribution networks and automated ordering systems; are currently the least equipped to deal with the level of demand. Meanwhile smaller chains, or mom-and-pops, who rely on third-party brokered distribution are faster to respond.
 
Several factors have increased retail market demand for food products and non-perishables. People stocking up, kids out of school, some panic shopping (example toilet paper) and now curfews/quarantines have people purchasing more for ‘meals prepared at home’. Add in a level of closed restaurants and the demand on retail food markets is severely stressed.
 
In major urban areas the larger retailers are unable to keep up with demand. This is creating an outward spread as people drive further and further distances to find their needs. Those who travel a distance ultimately stock-up more; thus the outward spider web-cycle is created. Based on ground reports Atlanta Georgia is a prime example.

Guys … I normally don’t ask for anything. But I drive for a trucking company dedicated to a major nationwide grocery distributor. And we’re going to hell and back. And there’s no end in site yet. If y’all could say a couples prayers for safety and strength to keep going

— bayouman4475 (@bayouman4475) March 16, 2020

It’s probably temporary.

Canada, U.S. preparing to close border to non-essential travel

How the virus shocked Europe.

At the time of the Madrid marches and the Smurf convention, I was returning from a long journey in Asia and could not help noticing the contrast. In India, or Singapore, or Vietnam, people were dramatically changing their behaviour to adapt to the coronavirus. They were going out less, avoiding large groups, taking turns on the elevator and, of course, wearing masks everywhere, even if perhaps they looked less elegant in them. The idea that they would organize a Smurf convention to have a little fun is enough to make you laugh.
 
[…]
 In a penetrating piece published just two days ago, the Italian journalist Mattia Ferraresi argued that the fundamental failure in Italy was not a lack of testing or slow political action but a social and collective failure: People just did not take the coronavirus seriously enough to even slightly adapt their habits. It is a brave argument. It would be much easier to criticize the government for errors of action or inaction, rather than risk being accused of blaming the victims. But what Ferraresi saw and could not repress was something else: the radical incapacity on the part of the Italian public to adapt to the possibility of a terrible outcome, an outcome discounted by everyone until it was really too late.

Via Scott Gotlieb, MD — Disturbing new analysis from the modeling team at Imperial College shows initial #COVID19 epidemic lasting much longer in U.S. than other circulating models that show a peak in April/May; with a resurgence of infections when mitigation steps are lifted.

Paper is here;

The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the
results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policy making in the UK and other countries
 
in recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of public health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducingcontact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain specifically) and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission.
 
Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.”

It’s a leaked document and worst case scenerio.

The coronavirus epidemic in the UK will last until next spring and could lead to 7.9 million people being hospitalised, a secret Public Health England (PHE) briefing for senior NHS officials reveals.
 
The document, seen by the Guardian, is the first time health chiefs tackling the virus have admitted that they expect it to circulate for another 12 months and lead to huge extra strain on an already overstretched NHS.
 
It also suggests that health chiefs are braced for as many as 80% of Britons becoming infected with the coronavirus over that time.

Watch China. If it returns with a vengeance in China upon the resumption of work… see above.