Category: It’s Probably Nothing

It’s Probably Nothing

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard;

Container volumes arriving at European ports plunged in June, dashing expectations of a summer rebound. Imports fell 7.5pc from North America and 9pc from Asia. Flows into the Mediterranean region crashed by 16pc, reflecting the violence of the recession in Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal.
Buckling trade is the coup de grace for countless shippers still clinging on by their finger tips. “The market is barely paying above operating cost. If you are loaded with debt, you are in trouble,” said Martin Smith from ship operators Norddeutsche Vermögen in Hamburg.

It’s Probably Nothing

Bloomberg;

Stephenson Clarke Shipping Ltd., started in 1730, has been placed into liquidation, according to a statement from accounting firm Tait Walker. The Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, England- based shipper, which employed nine people, sold off its final vessel in July, according to the statement.
The Baltic Dry Index, a gauge of rates to transport dry- bulk commodities including grains and coal by sea, is down 55 percent this year and on course for a fourth annual slide in five years, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The current slump is “one of the worst experienced for many years,” the shipping company said in the statement.

h/t POK

It’s Probably Nothing

Germany’s manufacturing industry is now in a rout. Output and new orders dove in July at a rate not seen since April 2009, the depth of the great recession. It was the 4th month in a row of lower production volumes, and the 13th months in a row (!) of declining new orders—a terror for future production. The overall PMI index crashed to the lowest level since June 2009. Exports were hardest hit, particularly to Western Europe, Asia, and the US, the three largest markets in the world! The decline in exports was steepest since May 2009. And there is talk of “job shedding.”

It’s Probably Nothing

This post is largely about the future of domestic demand curves in the US. However, to understand just how wretchedly the global economy is doing, take a look at the latest round of Markit PMIs, and Germany’s manufacturing PMI for July. Pay some attention to the far Asian numbers, because those have started running in tandem with the exception of Indonesia, which benefits from Japanese energy problems and Chinese outsourcing. This is now a global downturn with some epic staying power. The cure can only come from lower prices adjusting final demand upward, and lower prices won’t be that quick to appear. India’s power problems are going to affect their current-quarter production and GDP negatively, and the monsoon isn’t that great either.

It’s Probably Nothing

In a nutshell;

Because most Western governments are insolvent, fiscal policy is dead. They maxed out their taxing power a long time ago and have been borrowing ever since. When it comes to the economy, governments are a spent force.
This has put central banks in charge, and they basically do one thing only: they print money. If all you have is hammer, everything looks like a nail, so central banks naturally think the world’s problem is a lack of money, which they are busily solving.
The problem is, a lack of money is not the problem, it’s solvency, and part of the reason for that is too much money, or rather, too much credit.

h/t Mike

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