It’s Probably Nothing

Live Updates: UK draws up contingency plan as Bank of Greece warns of ‘uncontrollable crisis’
A regular reader sent this related item a couple of days ago, via email;

A good friend pointed me at Ambrose Evans-Prtchard’s latest in the Telegraph. He really is the finest financial scribe in the UK.
I can’t imagine just what a $9 Trillion Margin Call would look like, but he thinks we’re about to find out. Oh, and yes, this would certainly be a catalyst to blowing up the Crude trade, but I’ll leave that aside for just AEP’s mathiness.

13 Replies to “It’s Probably Nothing”

  1. Splendid work by the financier class, coming soon to a movie theatre near you:
    “My Big Fat Greek BANKRUPTCY!”
    Cheers
    Hans Rupprecht, Commander in Chief
    1st Saint Nicolaas Army
    Army Group ‘True North’

  2. Just let them fail. Better now than after wasting another $100 billion. Greece has no plans to balance their budget. Just let them default today and the losses will be minimized. After default they WILL have a balanced budget because no-one will extend them a drachma of credit.

  3. Given that the total derivatives market is some $1.2 quadrillion
    http://www.bis.org/statistics/derstats.htm
    $9 Trillion is ‘pocket change’ in the grand scheme of things.
    On the other hand this may be all ‘Greek to you’ anyway…
    Cheers
    Hans Rupprecht, Commander in Chief
    1st Saint Nicolaas Army
    Army Group ‘True North’

  4. So would this be a good time to take on a modest amount of consumer debt? If interest rates are about to rise, a loan at the current low rates would almost count as an “asset”.
    I see the captcha has changed to reCaptcha.

  5. The world’s economic system has lived on ‘money printing’ for decades. Induce inflation, debase the currency, keep interest rates low so that people/gov’ts/corporations spend now! because of the fear that things will cost more in the future.
    But now a wall may have been hit. Since time began banks have relied on depositors coming forth and keeping the banks solvent. By paying interest rates that usually bettered inflation the banking system by and large stayed solvent. But with low or negative interest rates there is no incentive to deposit money in banks. So how will banks stay solvent ?? Money printing may be a spent force as the world sees Greece as the tip of the iceberg. And just how much behind Greece are many many countries? Italy, Spain, Ireland and even the USA.
    Interest rates ‘voluntarily’ going up soon? I doubt it. No entity would take it on the chin more than gov’ts with their huge debt load. So why would politicians raise rates?
    Perhaps the only way interest rates will rise is when the wall is meet – banks need the deposits and central banks can no longer print money, debase the currency and induce inflation. The hopelessness of the situation in Greece may be the canary in the coal mine.
    Bank runs of the past?? Try a bank run on the interconnected, leveraged world economy. So what is ahead? Withdrawal controls? Forced bank ‘bail-ins’ using depositors cash? (sounds better than a bail-out) Hyper inflation of fiat currencies along with deflation of real prices? Countries going back to gold pegs? Use crypto currencies? Interesting times indeed.
    Am I wrong in all this ??

  6. The last resort of Marxism is a reset of priorities.
    Greece will follow Venezuela and drop kick the elitist Chambers of Education, those who have championed Socialism. The $ 35 a month in salary may be too much for these useless fools…The CBC can expect an equal reset to retirement funding.. Love is a wonderful thing when you get that which you wished for “others”
    http://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/venezuelas-education-suffering-professors-leave-n373576

  7. From a long time ago.
    I’ll pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today. Can you say Greece.

  8. When Swiss insurance companies wanted to withdraw billions in cash from negative interest bank accounts, the Swiss banks wouldn’t give it to them. I am not sure what the solution will be.

  9. Sounds like just pre-Hitler Germany as described in Erich Remarque’s “The Black Obelisk”

  10. Mr Mulcair protests: I can’t be expected to give exact numbers when I make policy on the fly, depending on who I’m talking to:
    Tom Mulcair sows confusion over NDP’s promised corporate tax hike
    “Tom Mulcair is having a little trouble with numbers even as he attempts to reassure the business community that New Democrats would be prudent managers of the public purse. The NDP leader told a Bay Street audience Tuesday that his child care plan ‘over the next 10 years will deliver one million, $15-a-day child care spaces across Canada.’ In fact, the NDP plan is to be rolled out over eight years. An aide said the 10-year reference was a ‘speechwriter error.’ Then on Wednesday, Mulcair told CBC Radio’s ‘The Current’ that the existing corporate tax rate is ‘about 12, 13 (per cent), something like that right now.’ In fact, the corporate tax rate, which Mulcair has vowed to raise by an unspecified amount, is 15 per cent. Mulcair said later that he was referring to the difference between the combined federal-state corporate tax rate in the United States and the combined federal-provincial tax rate in Canada. The combined U.S. rate is 39 per cent, almost 13 percentage points higher than Canada’s combined rate of 26.3 per cent. Mulcair said he takes ‘responsibility for my lack of clarity’ but then went on to muddy the corporate tax waters once again. ‘We’ve always said one thing,’ he said outside the NDP’s weekly caucus meeting. ‘We want to make sure that the Canadian tax rate for our large corporations remains below the U.S. combined rate and we’re going to continue to work on that.’ He added: ‘It’ll be done incrementally. We’ll stay below the U.S. average.’ ”
    That included payroll taxes of course. No wait. Sure, Tom. Let the games begin.
    http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2015/06/17/ndp-leader-mulcair-sows-confusion-over-promised-corporate-tax-hike/#.VYIT54fbKM9

Navigation