I was intrigued to see this article in Time magazine about two prominent sheriffs in Arizona: Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Pima County Sheriff Clarence Dupnik.
As Time has long been a de facto PR mouthpiece for the Democrat Party, I understood from the start that the article would be biased against [Republican] Arpaio and for [Democrat] Dupnik. But the notion of comparing two nearby sheriffs with widely differing political views got me wondering how the crime statistics in their two counties compared. After a little research and some compilation the difference in their crime stats is rather startling:
Please click on the image above to see it full-size or you can download the original spreadsheet. In the Time piece, there’s not a word of Arpaio’s success and Dupnik’s relative failure to combat crime but as we’ve seen in the disgraceful, unprofessional “reporting” of the Tucson massacre, the mainstream media has clearly shown that they have no interest in facts that don’t support how they wish to spin a news story.
To be more specific, FBI puts “Total Violent crime” at 5.47/1,000 in Phoenix, 6.5/1,000 in Tucson.
For comparison purposes, per 1,000:
Lexington Kentucky 5.94
Las Vegas 9.47
San Francisco 7.36
New York 5.52
Chicago 18.32
Incidentally, if you do Maricopa County complete, which includes Phoenix, Chandler, Glendale, Scottsdale, Tempe, Mesa, and et cetera, you get a number per capita even lower.
All of which is complete crap, of course. The truth of the matter is that Phoenix has two or three crappy high crime areas, which account for 90%+ of the misbehavior. There’s almost no violent crime in most of the city.
Tucson by contrast has two or three high crime areas that take up a much larger percentage of its population. And geography. Tucson is a dump.
I’ve seen that broken down by zip code somewhere, I’m sure you could google it up if you felt like it. It won’t support your thesis though, because I’m fairly confident Sheriff Joe has the contract for some really crappy parts of Phoenix and surrounding.
Bingo.
//phoenix.gov/police/ucr2009violentcrimes.pdf
The Phantom: “In other places than the one you posted, other people have noticed that Tucson/Pima’s crime rates per 100,000 are generally higher than Phoenix/Maricopa’s, despite Phoenix being wildly larger…To be more specific, FBI puts “Total Violent crime” at 5.47/1,000 in Phoenix, 6.5/1,000 in Tucson.”
Why are you even trying to compare Phoenix and Tucson, or compare all of Maricopa County (including Phoenix, Glendate, Scottsdale, etc.) and Pima County (including Tucson, etc.)? When did I ever try to argue that Tucson was safer than Phoenix, or that Pima was safer than Maricopa?
Robert’s original post aims to compare Sheriff Arpaio and Sheriff Dupnik, which means comparing the MCSO and the PCSO, which means comparing “crime in Maricopa County EXCLUDING Phoenix (and Glendate and Tempe and Scottsdale, etc.)” and “crime in Pima County EXCLUDING Tucson, etc.”
Try running THOSE numbers, then get back to me.
And while you’re at it, let me ask you the same thing I asked Robert above: any comment on the opposite trends in violent crime since 2002, as reported by the MCSO & PCSO?
“I’ve seen that broken down by zip code somewhere…Bingo.”
Nice map. Too bad it depicts exactly the Phoenix PD’s jurisdiction and none of Sheriff Arpaio’s, and therefore is irrelevant to this post.
“It won’t support your thesis though…”
I’m starting to doubt that you even understand what Robert’s thesis is, let alone mine.
“…because I’m fairly confident Sheriff Joe has the contract for some really crappy parts of Phoenix and surrounding.”
Yeah, who needs evidence when you’ve got a “fairly confident” feeling.
small c conservative: “You can’t seriously be supporting Dupnik, – you’re just doing this because Dupnik is one of yours, right?”
No, I’m not supporting Dupnik. (And really, “one of mine”? Is your worldview so unimaginatively black-and-white that you think the choices are really either “your team” or “my team”?). I’m just taking issue with Robert’s (and apparently, The Phantom’s) man-crush on Arpaio, as well as their atrocious research and mathematical skills.
Joe Arpaio tough? Ha! The news program report I saw on him showed his orange-clad charges dishing out their stew from a giant common vat. And this was supposed to be degrading?
Stew! With meat in it!!!
In previous centuries, prisoners and “detainees” (at least those who weren’t hanged) were fed a strict vegan diet. The sooner we go back to that, the sooner potential felons (including “undocumented” felons) start thinking twice before commiting their crimes.
“Robert’s original post aims to compare Sheriff Arpaio and Sheriff Dupnik, which means comparing the MCSO and the PCSO, which means comparing “crime in Maricopa County EXCLUDING Phoenix (and Glendate and Tempe and Scottsdale, etc.)” and “crime in Pima County EXCLUDING Tucson, etc.”
Davenport;
The aim of comparison was to compare how efficient Sheriff Arpaio and Sheriff Dupnik are, which means comparing the crime in the area they are responsible for. Tuscon is under Dupnik and parts of Phoenix, etc., contract to Arpaio. You can not say that sheriff Dupnik is not responsible for Tuscon. If that was so then majority of newspapers including NYT and others are surely mistaken when they look to sheriff Dupnik for info on shooting not to the police department in Tuscon. (NYT title “Tucson shooting timeline: Pima Sheriff’s Office”)
IF they are not mistaken in assigning Dupnik responsibility for crime in Tuscon, then YOU (with your “oh, so good” research and math skills) are mistaken.
ella: “The aim of comparison was to compare how efficient Sheriff Arpaio and Sheriff Dupnik are, which means comparing the crime in the area they are responsible for. Tuscon is under Dupnik and parts of Phoenix, etc., contract to Arpaio.”
Wrong. Tucson proper is under the Tucson PD, while its unincorporated periphery is under Dupnik (see below). Ditto for Arpaio and Phoenix. Phoenix proper is the jurisdiction of the Phoenix PD, while the MCSO handles the unincorporated surroundings and some small cities in the outlying areas.
The important thing to note is that the Crime in Arizona reports take all that into account when they provide service population estimates for local law enforcement agencies. Crime stats and service populations for Phoenix PD and Tucson PD are listed separately from those of MCSO and PCSO in those reports for a reason.
“If that was so then majority of newspapers including NYT and others are surely mistaken when they look to sheriff Dupnik for info on shooting not to the police department in Tuscon. (NYT title “Tucson shooting timeline: Pima Sheriff’s Office”). IF they are not mistaken in assigning Dupnik responsibility for crime in Tuscon, then YOU (with your “oh, so good” research and math skills) are mistaken.”
Wrong again. The shooting actually happened in Casas Adobes, an unincorporated area north of Tucson proper, and hence the proper jurisdiction of Sheriff Dupnik rather than the Tucson PD. See: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casas_Adobes.
The national media refer to Tucson because most people wouldn’t know where Casas Adobes is.
Any other questions?
Ok Davenport, I’ll accept your premise as found for the sake of argument. Mostly because can’t be bothered to spend the time searching out the mapping and data for Arpaio’s jurisdiction vs. Dupnik’s.
How do you explain the considerably higher crime rate in Tucson compared to the much larger and denser Phoenix area? Tucson is the same size as Hamilton, the greater Phoenix area is bigger than Toronto.
“How do you explain the considerably higher crime rate in Tucson compared to the much larger and denser Phoenix area?”
I don’t know the cities or their histories enough to make any educated claims, but if I had to guess, I’d say the following are possible factors:
– higher poverty rates in Tucson
– lower incomes in Tucson
– the fact that Tucson is closer to the US-Mexico border
– the fact that Phoenix is a relatively larger, more cosmopolitan, more urbane city (incidentally, according to this Maclean’s piece, you’re more likely to a victim of a crime in Hamilton than in Toronto: macleans.ca/national-crime-rankings)
– the fact that Phoenix has a more diverse and robust economic base.
Of course, none of these are linearly causal; they mix together in some complex sociological system of feedback loops and force multipliers.
“- the fact that Tucson is closer to the US-Mexico border”
Davenport! Did you just suggest that Mexicans are criminals?!?
BTW, what with these “complex sociological system of feedback loops and force multipliers” and so on, is it not possible that having a sheriff who actually enforces the law, thus a)making committing crime a bigger pain the @ss and b)taking habitual criminals out of circulation at least temporarily might be a contributing factor in the whole social eco-system?
Robert/ Terri Jones:
I’ve posted a few comments occasionally that I kicked myself for afterwards…senior moment or dyslexic..whatever..lol.
I also went to Terri’s blog. Nice place! Hope she stays around.
Excellent research for this post Robert.
Davenport, I see in your comment no mention of the possibility that one police force might be more effective than the other.
Pray tell, why is that?
And by the way, do you even know what a force multiplier is?
Black Mamba: “…is it not possible that having a sheriff who actually enforces the law, thus a)making committing crime a bigger pain the @ss and b)taking habitual criminals out of circulation at least temporarily might be a contributing factor in the whole social eco-system?”
The Phantom: “Davenport, I see in your comment no mention of the possibility that one police force might be more effective than the other.”
Sure, effective policing could be another factor. Like I said, my list wasn’t meant to be exhaustive.
Speaking of effective policing, did you know that violent crime has been on the rise since at least 2002 in the MCSO’s jurisdiction, and down in the PCSO’s jurisdiction and indeed almost everywhere else in Arizona?
Kind of puts the lie to Robert’s entire thread, no?
“And by the way, do you even know what a force multiplier is?”
In the context of military strategy? Or in the context of complexity theory?
Why yes Davenport, I -did- know rates are going up in Maricopa and down in Pima lately. Note that even with that trend, rates remain considerably higher in Pima. So no, the change does -not- indicate Robert is wrong, even though he did do his sums wrong.
In the context of this thread, “force multiplier” makes absolutely zero sense if used in the military or the complexity definition. Crime rates change because the local culture changes, and by local I mean areas of a little as a few blocks. Look at that map again, you can see the hots spots are small and separated.
Rudy Giuliani proved that the criminal culture of a whole city can be changed in just a couple of years with very simple changes in focus by police. I contend that the difference in police leadership accounts for most of that Pima/Maricopa difference. Arpaio is certainly part of that.
Incidentally, crime is going up all over southern Arizona, due entirely to the Mexican drug cartels smuggling drugs and shooting each other, and the illegal migrants swarming through. You don’t have to break out the “complexity theory” to figure this stuff out, Davenport. Its plenty obvious just by going through the names on the court dockets and taking a glance at that map. Lots of Sanchez, not so much McDonald.
The Phantom: “Note that even with that trend, rates remain considerably higher in Pima.”
Actually, to the extend that a law enforcement head’s effectiveness can be simplistically reduced to crime stats at all (which is the premise of Robert’s post, which I am highly dubious of), trends arguable determine effectiveness as well as, if not better than, absolute numbers. The latter suggests that hand one is dealt, the former suggests what one does with it.
“Incidentally, crime is going up all over southern Arizona, due entirely to the Mexican drug cartels smuggling drugs and shooting each other, and the illegal migrants swarming through.”
True, except in Pima County, which has the longest border with Mexico out of the four counties that share a border at all.
Huh.
Davenport, you know that can’t possibly be true.