Category: Ethical Energy

“The same architects of our insane energy policy… are also the architects of our military strategy.”

I believe I’ve mentioned this.

The team riffs with Doomberg, a renowned energy analyst, to discuss a range of issues from the global energy landscape to geopolitical tensions and the changing nature of warfare. The conversation also delves into the intricacies of the global natural gas market, the impact of sanctions on Russia, and the potential future of nuclear energy.

Doomberg is a good, though pricey Substack to subscribe to. I wish more of his material was open to free viewing.

Hey, about that pipeline?

Brian Zinchuk: If Poilievre wins a massive majority, can we PLEASE build the Energy East Pipeline?

(I’m fairly certain Premier Moe is tired about me asking about this. I was still talking about it two years ago, which was four years after it was supposed to have been completed. But it’s worth a shot.)

 

UPDATE: It appears Premier Scott Moe agrees:

 

There’s No Business Case For LNG Exports

Bloomberg;

A huge wave of liquefied natural gas is about to flood a world that’s supposed to be transitioning away from fossil fuels.

More than $235 billion has been plowed into the next slate of projects for the super-chilled fuel since 2019. The first of those plants will come online later this year, and a further $55 billion may be invested through 2025, Rystad Energy forecasts show.

That will help drive an historic 70% jump in LNG export capacity by the end of the decade, according to Baker Hughes.

The industry is essentially betting the world will need a lot more of the fuel as Europe rushes to replace piped Russian gas and Asia — particularly China — shifts away from coal.

Just today, US producer Chesapeake Energy Corp. agreed to snap up a key rival, capitalizing on demand for shipments from the Gulf Coast.

Massive export projects from the US to Qatar will cement LNG in the global energy mix for decades, especially with some purchasing contracts going into the 2050s — beyond targets set by many nations to become carbon-neutral.

Related: It’s not an easy time to be a politician.

Did we just miss out on a mini oil boom? Sure looks like it

The old bumper sticker used to say something like, “Lord, please grant me another oil boom, and I promise not to piss it away this time.”

Well, oil prices were up in 2023, but oil drilling in Saskatchewan certainly didn’t reflect that. So Pipeline Online asked Premier Scott Moe what Saskatchewan is going to do about it.

Saskatchewan’s Year in Energy: Premier Scott Moe, 2023: Part 2 Oil Drilling, or Lack Thereof

Across the border to the west, The last coal-fired power station in Alberta will soon be out of coal. A few weeks ago, a notice posted to the the Alberta Electric System Operator website provided an update on its conversion to natural gas.

The end of coal-fired power in Alberta is nigh

Also, from Canadian Press:

Regulator denied Trans Mountain variance request due to pipeline safety concerns

And this one is a doozy. This is the Liberal government trying to cement into place carbon pricing so that even if the government changes, nothing can be done about it.

Feds sign first carbon contract for difference with Calgary-based Entropy

 

Saskatchewan’s Year in Energy: Premier Scott Moe, 2023: Part 1, Fighting the Feds

Scott Moe.

Energy, and the “energy transition” being forced upon Canadians by the federal government, is becoming the dominant story, affecting all our lives and everything we do. In his year-end interview with Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, Pipeline Online dives deep into the biggest energy issues of the past year.

This is Part 1: Fighting the Feds.

Part 2 will focus on addressing low oil drilling activity, despite decent oil prices.

Part 3 discusses the Clean Electricity Regulations and their impact, and widespread adoption of nuclear power.

Part 4 talks about lithium and helium development, and ends with Christmas greetings.

COP28: Canadian gov’t focused on shutting down oil and gas while Saskatchewan was speaking for it

Feds “focused on targeting the shutdown of a complete industry, regardless of whether they’re going to meet their emissions targets or not,” says Saskatchewan Premier Moe in Dubai

Pipeline Online speaks with Premier Scott Moe at conclusion of Dubai COP28 trip. (Another reporter asked questions, too, like do you believe the planet is warming…?

… And the horse you rode in on: Sask on Guilbeault’s emissions cap

Guilbeault’s latest application of a knee to the neck of the oil and gas industry in Canada:

Canada proposes new methane emissions rules for oil-and-gas sector

To which Saskatchewan responds:

‘A production cap by default’: Sask gov’t reacts to Guilbeault’s proposed methane regulations.

Ever hear about the Output Based Pricing? It’s basically a third form of carbon tax. Well, we’re going to use its proceeds to build reactors.

Saskatchewan to use Output Based Pricing to fund small modular reactor

In related news, in case you missed it Sunday night because I messed up my scheduling, a great column on Saskatchewan telling the feds to FU on the carbon tax on home heating:

Brian Crossman: I am Spartacus! I am Duncan!

Y2Kyoto: Reality Bites

Anas Alhajji: As COP28 is being held in Dubai with the oil industry participating in such events for the first time, the oil industry wasted no time making its case. We decided to repost this article for everyone to read.

EOA’S MAIN TAKEAWAYS

1. Data indicates that future demand for oil and gas is UNDERESTIMATED, while demand destruction is HYPED.

2. Global energy demand is increasing, making decarbonization more difficult to achieve, and the process of replacing fossil fuels slower.

3. Despite massive spending on renewables in the last two decades, fossil fuels remain the dominant source of energy in the world, even in Europe.

4. Coal remains the dominant source of electricity in India and China.

5. Oil is rarely used in power generation in the OECD, China, and India. Doubling or tripling solar and wind energy sources will have a very limited impact on oil demand. However, the failure of renewable energy, and consequent power shortages, will have a significant impact on oil demand.

6. As LNG prices reached a record high in 2022, oil use in power generation increased. The level of substitution among various energy sources last year was unprecedented.

Forget a northern energy corridor to Hudson Bay – just do it within Manitoba instead

There’s an election today in Manitoba, so all bets are off if the NDP forms government. But on the off chance that the Conservatives hold power, here goes. The conservative premiers of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba have been talking about building a new port at Port Nelson, Manitoba, on Hudson Bay. They would build a corridor of pipelines running oil and natural gas to said port, as well as rail, allowing potash exports. Maybe grain, too?  And Power from Manitoba could run west. Anyhow, here’s an alternative way to look at it, probably for a lot cheaper than building over 1,000 km of pipeline through some of the hardest rock on the planet.

And on the topic of energy, any business in Saskatchewan who wants to get in on building multi-billion dollar nuclear reactors should get someone down to Regina Wednesday morning to attend this conference.

And the Energy Transition Podcast talks about France’s Macron going full Trudeau.

And the Coastal GasLink Pipeline is now 98 per cent complete.

Down The Primrose Path

Daily Energy Report:Spain is a gas gate for the EU, but also the backdoor for Russian LNG.

During the first eight months of this year, Russian LNG supplies to Spain soared 62%, reaching 5 bcm up from 3.1 bcm for the same period last year (Figure 5). Spain’s growing appetite for Russian LNG pushed up its share to 19.7% of total imports until the end of August this year, from 10.9% in 2022. The EOA previously estimated that Spain, as well as other EU member states, will find it difficult to halt Russian gas supplies. Stopping imports of Russian gas under current market conditions would put additional pressure on Europe to secure its gas needs.

Spain enjoys a secure gas supply network thanks to its diversified supply routes, seven operating LNG terminals, and robust storage facilities, allowing it to become a gas hub for Europe in the future as the continent curbs its dependence on Russian gas. For now, however, Spain is acting as a back door for Russian LNG flows into Europe.

DER is a good newsletter, consider subscribing.

TC Energy is dumping Keystone Pipeline in spinoff

Keystone XL pipe, in 2011, that was never used. Photo by Brian Zinchuk

 

TC Energy, which I still think of as TranCanada, from back when I built pipelines for them, is spinning off its oil pipelines, which is principally the Keystone system.

I was searching for the best metaphor. “Like hot garbage,” kept coming to mind. I settled on dumping an ex-wife. My column on this: TC Energy dumping Keystone Pipeline like a despised, soon-to-be-ex-wife. The Keystone name is so verboten, it is barely mentioned in the press release or slide deck.

This is entirely because the anti-pipeline, anti-oil movement won on Keystone XL and Energy East. Can’tada and BANANAS USA won, and this is the result. (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anyone, Seriously, U Stup1d A@#$#@#)

About doubling the electrical grid

On Wednesday morning, the Province of Ontario and Bruce Power announced they were beginning planning for a massive expansion of “large nuclear” in that province. How big? One quarter more than Saskatchewan has ever produced on its highest usage day. Just one of these reactors would be as large as the four SaskPower is currently considering, combined.

Oh, and while he was here, Jonathan Wilkinson announced federal money for four Indigenous renewable energy projects, plus one at Carrot River. Here’s the first four, and here’s the last one.

 

Faster Please

Globe and Mail- Norway’s government approves more than US$18-billion in oil, gas investments

Norway’s government said on Wednesday it has given approval for oil companies to develop 19 oil and gas fields with investments exceeding 200 billion Norwegian crowns ($18.51-billion), part of the country’s strategy to extend production for decades to come.

Norway’s parliament in 2020 introduced temporary tax incentives to encourage petroleum investment at a time of low activity, triggering a rush of applications from energy companies.

Jevons Paradox

“Every molecule of fossil fuel produced worldwide will be burned by somebody somewhere, and local efforts to restrict consumption merely relocate the enjoyment of that privilege.”

Prior to the widespread proliferation of the steam engine, mining for coal was back-breaking work. The industry relied on human and animal strength, with laborers using primitive tools, to extract the stuff from hand-dug mineshafts. The work was as dangerous as it was dirty, and fatalities were commonplace. Then, a revolution unfolded. A step-change improvement to existing steam engine design, engineered by James Watt, allowed miners to leverage machinery such as pumps, hoists, and ventilation systems to alleviate significant portions of direct human effort. Pumps that used Watt’s engines were particularly effective at draining water from deep mineshafts, making vast and previously inaccessible coal reserves economically viable. The genius of his invention was in delivering far more work per quanta of fuel.

What did these advances in energy efficiency do to the demand for coal? Did society limit itself to doing the same amount of work as it had done before, just more economically so? Quite the contrary.

This is a good one, worth sharing around. More discussion here.

New World Order

Terry Etam: The axis of the world is shifting.

Here in the weird West, where we set aside our vast wealth, bountiful resources, technological prowess, best-in-history medical/safety establishments, and other assorted existential victories to get into fistfights about whether more racism will eliminate racism and who can go to the bathroom where, we are used to watching ancient conflicts take place on the other side of the world, shaking our head, and wondering either “Why can’t they all just get along” or “Well that’s unacceptable, better step in.”

The weird west has long gotten involved in many of these conflicts because of, well, o-i-l. It’s been that way since the 1950s, probably longer; the west’s insatiable thirst for hydrocarbons has driven a lot of international shenanigans and weird relationships. Recall that after a gang of terrorists hijacked four planes and flew them into the US’ most fundamental landmarks on home soil, and that more than half of those terrorists were from Saudi Arabia, the US promptly and expectedly retaliated – by invading two other countries, and going for tea with Saudi Arabia. Kind of transparent, that one.

But that established hydrocarbon-based camaraderie is fading fast, and it doesn’t look like the West has a game plan in response. That’s about as far as I’ll wade into geopolitics because the whole mess is grossly complicated (who hates who again this week?), other than to point out how rapidly things are changing and how that is impacting the energy world.

More: Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MbS) is no longer worried about pleasing the United States as his relationships with other global superpowers including China and Russia have strengthened.

It’s Probably Nothing

@WallStreetSilv

Within the past few hours, multiple OPEC nations have announced oil production cuts, total is over 1 million bpd. Russia has also announced 500,000 bpd cut.

Biden has already sold about half of our emergency oil supply reserve. He can’t counter this situation.

It will be very interesting to see where commodity futures open Sunday evening.

Bumped for update: Japan has broken the pact with the US and its Allies and has bought Russian oil above the price cap

Nobody saw that coming.

$40 billion in oilpatch CAPEX sounds great for 2023, until you realize it is half of 2014

Oilwell battery construction in southeast Saskatchewan, fall of 2022. Photo by Brian Zinchuk

Back in the lofty, pre-Trudeau government days of 2014, back when oil was booming, pipelines were planned to east and west coasts, and Alberta and Saskatchewan were swimming in money, around $81 billion was spent in capital expenditures (CAPEX) in the Canadian petroleum industry. On Wednesday, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) forecast CAPEX of $40 billion, which is just about double the disaster year of 2020, but half of 2014. And that’s before #justinflation. What would it be if we had a federal government supportive of the industry, instead of trying to make it disappear?

Curiously, Enbridge announced on the same day its spending a lot of money in Texas, including a port facility for Houston. Funny how it’s not talking about Northern Gateway to Kitimat, or Churchill, or even Valdez, Alaska? Wonder why?

And here’s Brian Zinchuk’s column analyzing all this.

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