As I write this post, Trump is still on stage at his final rally in Grand Rapids, MI. It’s well past midnight and he’s gone totally off script… We’re energy independent…we have more oil than anybody… you’re paying $2 a gallon for your gasoline… if Biden got in you’ll be paying 7 dollars, 8 dollars, 9 dollars. Then they’d say “Get rid of your car. We’re going to build some more windmills, kill all the birds.”
270 to win.
Please use this format to enter your predictions in the comments:
Trump:
Biden:
Tie breaker: Winner’s share of popular vote
I’ll be giving out some books. With luck, the results will so overwhelming that I can name the winners on Wednesday.
Bill Still predicts, at best, 322 to 216 for Trump:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pwum3_IvW_4
He attributes this to the “monster vote”, just like he did 4 years ago.
Trump: 262
Biden: 276
Trump: 46% popular vote
Biden: 48%
Others: 6%
Trump has pissed off too many middle-of-the-road seniors and too many white suburban housewives. Too many things will have to go his way (Penn, Ohio, Fla, Ariz) for him to be able to pull this one out. It will be closer than most think, but in the end, the MSM media has won it for Biden. I fear for the future.
I understand your point of view. My heart and my head are in opposition right now, because of the conflicting numbers. My only conclusion is that Trump will lose the popular vote by several points while still winning re-election. It dovetails with your opinion that he’s too far behind. Yet at the same time I see what is happening in the polls in the critical states and he is right there.
Your logic isn’t very good, Chris, given for example the early voting returns from Florida. But your prediction is a smart move. This is a conservative blog, so if Trump wins, the winner of a book from Kate will probably have to have the exact electoral vote plus a fairly accurate popular vote estimate. But if Biden were to win by any number, well then, Bob’s your uncle.
So it was a good plan. Until now:
Trump:261
Biden: 277
Good point, but nobody wants the book, we all want Trump 🙂
Just going by my gut. I have no idea about any early voting. I even gave Penn, Georgia, Florida, Arizona, Iowa, and Michigan to Trump but that still doesn’t put him over the top. The path for Trump is just way too complicated and requires way too much luck, and way too many breaks to go his way.
If the vote counting shenanigans get out of hand (and into the courts) then all bets are off.
Ah, the Price Is Right gambit.
Trump: 260
Biden: 278
Looks like we’ve got about a 70% chance for a lot of these predictions to look pretty damn silly tomorrow.
You’ve got a 100% chance of being silly every day.
All of the hundreds of thousands who were at the rallies will have to stay home to get that result. The media will lie as the vote progresses and the effort to weed out fraud will be ignored by the media. Do you think that America is going to vote for full on communism under the democrats because that is exactly what the democrats have promised. I go with at least 320 for trump, the other side I really don’t give a rat’s ass about.
Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina.
If Trump wins any two he has a decent chance.
If Trump only wins one of those three then he is done.
(I am giving Arizona and Michigan to Trump in this scenario. He must win these two as well.)
Trump: 320
Biden: 218
Trump’s Popular Vote: 49.4%
R gameday vote will be so overwhelming that the Dems won’t even think of activating their “vote by the pallet, vote by the pound” operation.
Trump 305
Biden 233
That’s what Robert Barnes (@Barnes_Law) has it at Hatch so you’re in good company. I’ll go with that also.
Trump: 320
Sleepy: 218
Trump: 279
Biden: 259
Tie breaker: Winner’s share of popular vote 46% (to 51% and 1% 1% for Jorgenson/Hawkins)
287 Trump 49.5% of the popular vote
251 Biden 47.5% of the popular vote
3.0% other
Trump: 299
Biden: 239
Tiebreaker: Trump 49.6%
May it be so.
Trump: 313
Biden: 225
Tie breaker: Trump Popular Vote: 49%
Trump – 330
Biden – 208
No tie breaker needed………I, as supreme leader of me, will cast the tie breaking vote for myself……. haha.
Enjoy tomorrow everyone!!!
Cheers,
Peter
Trump: 319
Biden: 219
Popular vote: YUGE! 50.5
The rust belt “Reagan Democrats” are a comin’ out in droves I tell ya…!
PDJT just now waving goodbye to crowds in MICHIGAN @ 1:15am ET
I do admire the man’s energy…
Prosit!!
Hans Rupprecht, Commander in Chief
1st Saint Nicolaas Army
Army Group “True North
Trump 322
Biden 216
Popular vote Trump 53%
Trump: 341
Biden: 197
Tie breaker: Trump 48.6%, Biden 48.1%, Other 3.3%
Forget all of the push polls. Look to 2016. Almost all close states go to Trump this time because Hillary had way more charisma and appeal than the Biden/Harris ticket. Trump adds NV, CO, VA, NH, and ME…and loses no states he had in 2016. NM and MN were close but this time Kanye West steals votes from Trump and keeps those states for the Dems.
320 for Trump
218 for Biden
Trump wins in a Landslide and the Left loses its mind and the streets erupt in chaos.
Trump 363
Biden 175
Trump 52%
Trump 322
Biden 216
Trump 279
Biden 259
Popular vote: Biden 52-48
Biden will lose PA by a few thousand of votes. He really shouldn’t have let slip what he had in store for the frackers.
Trump 317
Team commie billionaire sore*ss, the balance
(god I hope so!)
Trump 279 electoral votes
Biden 259 electoral votes
Trump popular vote 51.5 %
Trump: 325
Biden: 213
Trump: 48% popular vote
Biden: 47%
There will be wrangling and bleating from the Demarxists, TRUMP will declare himself the winner, and heads will explode everywhere.
Trump; 307
Sleepy; 231
Trump with 49.9% pop
Sleepy with 49.2% pop
Basis for prediction,,, lack of Democrat enthusiasm and lower Democrat voter turn-out(% wise).
High Republican enthusiasm, momentum moving to Trump during the last 2 weeks.
A surprisingly high support for Trump, from Black and Latina voters.(definitely shy Trump supporters)
Trump 342
Globalists 181
Trump: 285
Biden: 253
Trump 49%
Biden 48%
trump 324
biden 214
Mr. T: 314
Mr. B: 224
Mr TrB Not
Trump 323
Biden 215
Trump vote 48.8%
Trump: 320
Biden: 218
Tie breaker: 50.1%
Trump 325 electoral
Biden 210 electoral
5 faithless electoral
Trump 51% popular
Biden 49% popular
Triumph gave it his all. He gave the American people his side, his view. There can be no doubt where he stands. Biden Is still in the basement. Driving this week thru the plains and the southwest I saw a lot of trumph signs And only a handful of Biden signs. What It means and what the results will be I don’t know and can’t even offer a guess. But Wow what a campaign.
Trump: 312
Biden: 226
Popular vote: Trump 48.6%
Trump 352 Slow Joe 186
337 to 198 Trump wins.
popular vote who cares?
Trump 258 and 43% of popular vote
Biden 380 and 46% of popular vote (results include voter fraud in cities).
Note we will have to wait two-three days for the mail-in and absentee ballots to be counted, which will boost the results to the above. Today I will be buying shares in Kirkland Lake gold, and tomorrow shares in Agnico Eagle gold.
Awk! Change the electoral vote prediction to:
Trump 258
Biden 280.
My mistake. I have a PhD in economics.
Trump: 301
Biden: 237
Pop Vote sees Trump get 49% and Biden with 48%.
Cheating is claimed, rioting ensues, pussy hats explode, CNN bobbleheads openly weep, the stock market rises and smug Canadian assholes shake their heads in disbelief.
Trump – 343
Biden – 192
Popular vote 51.5% Biden (once all the dead are added)
Trump: 331
Biden: 207
Trump: 301
Biden: 217
Tie breaker: Winner’s share of popular vote 47.1%
Trump: 275
Biden: 263
Tie breaker: Popular Vote: Trump 48% Biden 49%
Trump wins Michigan and Arizona – losses Pennsylvania due to voter fraud.
Head of TRAFALGAR Polling estimated it at 4%
Trump 320
Trump wins what he got in 2016 and adds Nevada, Minnesota, and New Hampshire
Trump 326
Biden 212
Adding tie-breaker comment.
Do not have a good idea of absolute totals for each candidate but, relatively, Biden ups Trump by 1.2%. I do not closely follow the national popular vote, but I do follow certain states popular votes.
Suggestion Kate for next election:
1st tie-breaker: Most states accurately predicted. Do not need to list all 50 states – just Party +/- from previous election as I did above.
2nd tie-breaker: Popular vote
Trump 320
Biden: you know….the thing
49% pop vote
Trump: 320
Which is why our “intellectual superiors” are now calling the Electoral College racist. They know what’s coming.
Trump: 328
Biden: 210
Trump wins the house, the senate and 58% popular vote!
321 Trump
216 Bolshevik
Per Don Surber – I like his numbers – Trump wins 37 states in a blowout and if I counted correctly end result is below
donsurber.blogspot.com
Trump – 356
Biden -182
Trump 319
Biden 219
Made the bet back in June and I’m sticking with it
Trump 327
Sleepy Joe the Dem cities
Trump will get 52% pv
But the court challenges and fraud by the DS will close the gap incredibly…until the cheating is exposed. It will take 2 months to know the results.
Trump 298
Biden 240
The surprise is Virginia. Several high-end colleges all over the state are operating remotely. Too many kiddies off campus and out-of-state to drag Biden over the line. Fury with Democrat anti-gun, black-face wearing governor. Becomes this year’s Wisconsin.
Trump: 384 (Betting he wins CA) 53%
Biden: 154
I won’t bother giving a number so if I’m right Kate I am disqualified from any reward.
Trump to win.
The expert opinion that favours Biden is over sampling from democrats.
They are probing opinions from the archipelago that wanted her to win the last election.
Wouldn’t matter how good a job Trump did in his first term these are folks that never question any of the breaking news from CNN.
They are the same group that pollsters over sampled in 2016.
Because they never vetted their polls then they could not conceive any reason their side lost except that it had to be that Trump cheated.
They
Have
Learned
Nothing
No matter how much information that has been revealed that it was democrats guilty of all the malfeasance they accuse Trump of they cannot accept he won 2016, they equally attribute the same guilt on those that vote for him.
Those voters still see the beltway and their minions as the ones causing them grief, they also see Biden as part of the beltway.
Trump: 310
You Know the Thing: 228
Trump: 338
Biden: 200
Winner’s share of popular vote 49.8%
That prediction is valid for 24 hours.
After mail in votes and electoral college packing Biden will be 50.1% and 666 in the electoral college.