The 2020 Presidential Election Prediction Thread

As I write this post, Trump is still on stage at his final rally in Grand Rapids, MI. It’s well past midnight and he’s gone totally off script… We’re energy independent…we have more oil than anybody… you’re paying $2 a gallon for your gasoline… if Biden got in you’ll be paying 7 dollars, 8 dollars, 9 dollars. Then they’d say “Get rid of your car. We’re going to build some more windmills, kill all the birds.”

270 to win.


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Please use this format to enter your predictions in the comments:
Trump:
Biden:

Tie breaker: Winner’s share of popular vote

I’ll be giving out some books. With luck, the results will so overwhelming that I can name the winners on Wednesday.

122 Replies to “The 2020 Presidential Election Prediction Thread”

  1. Trump: 262
    Biden: 276

    Trump: 46% popular vote
    Biden: 48%
    Others: 6%

    Trump has pissed off too many middle-of-the-road seniors and too many white suburban housewives. Too many things will have to go his way (Penn, Ohio, Fla, Ariz) for him to be able to pull this one out. It will be closer than most think, but in the end, the MSM media has won it for Biden. I fear for the future.

    1. I understand your point of view. My heart and my head are in opposition right now, because of the conflicting numbers. My only conclusion is that Trump will lose the popular vote by several points while still winning re-election. It dovetails with your opinion that he’s too far behind. Yet at the same time I see what is happening in the polls in the critical states and he is right there.

    2. Your logic isn’t very good, Chris, given for example the early voting returns from Florida. But your prediction is a smart move. This is a conservative blog, so if Trump wins, the winner of a book from Kate will probably have to have the exact electoral vote plus a fairly accurate popular vote estimate. But if Biden were to win by any number, well then, Bob’s your uncle.
      So it was a good plan. Until now:

      Trump:261
      Biden: 277

      1. Just going by my gut. I have no idea about any early voting. I even gave Penn, Georgia, Florida, Arizona, Iowa, and Michigan to Trump but that still doesn’t put him over the top. The path for Trump is just way too complicated and requires way too much luck, and way too many breaks to go his way.
        If the vote counting shenanigans get out of hand (and into the courts) then all bets are off.

      2. Ah, the Price Is Right gambit.

        Trump: 260
        Biden: 278

        Looks like we’ve got about a 70% chance for a lot of these predictions to look pretty damn silly tomorrow.

    3. All of the hundreds of thousands who were at the rallies will have to stay home to get that result. The media will lie as the vote progresses and the effort to weed out fraud will be ignored by the media. Do you think that America is going to vote for full on communism under the democrats because that is exactly what the democrats have promised. I go with at least 320 for trump, the other side I really don’t give a rat’s ass about.

      1. Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina.
        If Trump wins any two he has a decent chance.
        If Trump only wins one of those three then he is done.
        (I am giving Arizona and Michigan to Trump in this scenario. He must win these two as well.)

  2. Trump: 320
    Biden: 218

    Trump’s Popular Vote: 49.4%

    R gameday vote will be so overwhelming that the Dems won’t even think of activating their “vote by the pallet, vote by the pound” operation.

  3. That’s what Robert Barnes (@Barnes_Law) has it at Hatch so you’re in good company. I’ll go with that also.
    Trump: 320
    Sleepy: 218

  4. Trump: 279
    Biden: 259

    Tie breaker: Winner’s share of popular vote 46% (to 51% and 1% 1% for Jorgenson/Hawkins)

  5. Trump – 330
    Biden – 208

    No tie breaker needed………I, as supreme leader of me, will cast the tie breaking vote for myself……. haha.

    Enjoy tomorrow everyone!!!

    Cheers,

    Peter

  6. Trump: 319
    Biden: 219

    Popular vote: YUGE! 50.5

    The rust belt “Reagan Democrats” are a comin’ out in droves I tell ya…!

    PDJT just now waving goodbye to crowds in MICHIGAN @ 1:15am ET

    I do admire the man’s energy…

    Prosit!!

    Hans Rupprecht, Commander in Chief
    1st Saint Nicolaas Army
    Army Group “True North

  7. Trump: 341
    Biden: 197

    Tie breaker: Trump 48.6%, Biden 48.1%, Other 3.3%

    Forget all of the push polls. Look to 2016. Almost all close states go to Trump this time because Hillary had way more charisma and appeal than the Biden/Harris ticket. Trump adds NV, CO, VA, NH, and ME…and loses no states he had in 2016. NM and MN were close but this time Kanye West steals votes from Trump and keeps those states for the Dems.

  8. 320 for Trump
    218 for Biden

    Trump wins in a Landslide and the Left loses its mind and the streets erupt in chaos.

  9. Trump 279
    Biden 259

    Popular vote: Biden 52-48

    Biden will lose PA by a few thousand of votes. He really shouldn’t have let slip what he had in store for the frackers.

  10. Trump: 325
    Biden: 213

    Trump: 48% popular vote
    Biden: 47%

    There will be wrangling and bleating from the Demarxists, TRUMP will declare himself the winner, and heads will explode everywhere.

  11. Trump; 307
    Sleepy; 231
    Trump with 49.9% pop
    Sleepy with 49.2% pop

    Basis for prediction,,, lack of Democrat enthusiasm and lower Democrat voter turn-out(% wise).
    High Republican enthusiasm, momentum moving to Trump during the last 2 weeks.
    A surprisingly high support for Trump, from Black and Latina voters.(definitely shy Trump supporters)

  12. Trump 325 electoral
    Biden 210 electoral
    5 faithless electoral

    Trump 51% popular
    Biden 49% popular

  13. Triumph gave it his all. He gave the American people his side, his view. There can be no doubt where he stands. Biden Is still in the basement. Driving this week thru the plains and the southwest I saw a lot of trumph signs And only a handful of Biden signs. What It means and what the results will be I don’t know and can’t even offer a guess. But Wow what a campaign.

  14. Trump 258 and 43% of popular vote
    Biden 380 and 46% of popular vote (results include voter fraud in cities).

    Note we will have to wait two-three days for the mail-in and absentee ballots to be counted, which will boost the results to the above. Today I will be buying shares in Kirkland Lake gold, and tomorrow shares in Agnico Eagle gold.

    1. Awk! Change the electoral vote prediction to:
      Trump 258
      Biden 280.

      My mistake. I have a PhD in economics.

  15. Trump: 301
    Biden: 237
    Pop Vote sees Trump get 49% and Biden with 48%.
    Cheating is claimed, rioting ensues, pussy hats explode, CNN bobbleheads openly weep, the stock market rises and smug Canadian assholes shake their heads in disbelief.

  16. Trump: 275
    Biden: 263

    Tie breaker: Popular Vote: Trump 48% Biden 49%
    Trump wins Michigan and Arizona – losses Pennsylvania due to voter fraud.
    Head of TRAFALGAR Polling estimated it at 4%

  17. Trump wins what he got in 2016 and adds Nevada, Minnesota, and New Hampshire
    Trump 326
    Biden 212

    1. Adding tie-breaker comment.
      Do not have a good idea of absolute totals for each candidate but, relatively, Biden ups Trump by 1.2%. I do not closely follow the national popular vote, but I do follow certain states popular votes.

      Suggestion Kate for next election:
      1st tie-breaker: Most states accurately predicted. Do not need to list all 50 states – just Party +/- from previous election as I did above.
      2nd tie-breaker: Popular vote

  18. Trump: 320

    Which is why our “intellectual superiors” are now calling the Electoral College racist. They know what’s coming.

  19. Per Don Surber – I like his numbers – Trump wins 37 states in a blowout and if I counted correctly end result is below

    donsurber.blogspot.com

    Trump – 356
    Biden -182

  20. Trump 327
    Sleepy Joe the Dem cities

    Trump will get 52% pv

    But the court challenges and fraud by the DS will close the gap incredibly…until the cheating is exposed. It will take 2 months to know the results.

  21. Trump 298
    Biden 240

    The surprise is Virginia. Several high-end colleges all over the state are operating remotely. Too many kiddies off campus and out-of-state to drag Biden over the line. Fury with Democrat anti-gun, black-face wearing governor. Becomes this year’s Wisconsin.

  22. I won’t bother giving a number so if I’m right Kate I am disqualified from any reward.
    Trump to win.
    The expert opinion that favours Biden is over sampling from democrats.
    They are probing opinions from the archipelago that wanted her to win the last election.
    Wouldn’t matter how good a job Trump did in his first term these are folks that never question any of the breaking news from CNN.
    They are the same group that pollsters over sampled in 2016.
    Because they never vetted their polls then they could not conceive any reason their side lost except that it had to be that Trump cheated.
    They
    Have
    Learned
    Nothing
    No matter how much information that has been revealed that it was democrats guilty of all the malfeasance they accuse Trump of they cannot accept he won 2016, they equally attribute the same guilt on those that vote for him.
    Those voters still see the beltway and their minions as the ones causing them grief, they also see Biden as part of the beltway.

  23. Trump: 338
    Biden: 200
    Winner’s share of popular vote 49.8%
    That prediction is valid for 24 hours.
    After mail in votes and electoral college packing Biden will be 50.1% and 666 in the electoral college.

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