19 Replies to “Wuhan Flu”

  1. Very similar patterns can be observed in Canada:
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/
    When you look at daily new cases vs daily deaths they look very different for the so called second wave than for the first one. Basically people stopped dying in mid June.

    “So called second wave” because in Canada spikes and drops occur at different times across provinces and apart for Quebec and Ontario are barely correlated.

    But a closer look at provincial data https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/tracking-every-case-of-covid-19-in-canada-1.4852102 reveals again that death counts really haven’t moved since mid June. Note, I said counts not rates. Rates have been steadily dropping and are becoming increasingly meaningless as the testing regimes keep changing and those rates are a function of a number of tests. Besides, with increased rates of testing we’re getting increased counts of false positives and probably increased rates of false positives.

  2. That would be accurate as the false positives are about 30% and false negatives 20%, not sure why the difference in positive and negative but that is what the Japanese have found.

    1. It’s because they calibrate the tests to err on the side of not missing sick people rather than avoiding false positives, as one is more dangerous than the other. The problem with these testing statistics is that without knowing a lot more about the tests than is ever released, they are all but worthless in the hands of people (almost everybody) who doesn’t thoroughly understand the issues involved, like the “paradox of false positives”. That goes that if, for example 1% of the population has a disease, and you indiscriminately run a test on people without regard for symptoms, etc, and your test has a 10% rate of false positives, if you test positive, there is still close to a 90% chance you don’t have it even though the test is 90% accurate. It’s kind of similar to the Monty Hall problem, the solution of which is also non intuitive, but bears out over time.

      1. Yes Timmy it is a Type I vs Type II error story we know that. Nice attempt to sound all learned. The important part is the one you consciously glance over. Publicly released infection statistics ignore the inaccuracy of the tests in order to artificially inflate the perception of threat. Why would they be doing that? You may ponder that for a while… but not too hard.

  3. Far better to quote McIntyre, who knows what he is doing, than that yahoo over at Instapundit who is cringeworthy ignorant. Treatments are constantly improving and its time to open up the economy fully, while still being careful, because this disease does kill people and it is highly contagious, so a little caution like wearing a mask in indoor public places is still well warranted, but life goes on too. Even if it doesn’t kill you, it’s still plenty nasty a lot of times and well worth avoiding.

    I wish they would open the Canadian border again. If they are waiting for COVID to disappear, it’s gonna be a long wait. Trudeau is probably hoping and waiting for Biden to get elected when suddenly things will be fine, as Biden enjoys the fruits of all of the research that took place under Trump.

      1. “99.8 recovery”
        Curious isn’t it? As it becomes more readily apparent with each passing week that contracting the virus won’t be a death sentence for its victims, each week more business places adopt mandatory wearing of masks to enter their premises. Yesterday at the entry to a bank I was confronted by a burly security guard demanding that I wear the mask.
        Here’s a dumb question: If entering your business is placing such a grave risk to your employees and to your customers should you be open for business at all?

        1. nold, unless you are at the top end of the so called risk age, as I am, seems you have nothing to worry about. I will play golf tomorrow and walk 18 holes and carry my clubs, and I have two underlying medical conditions that are supposed to kill me. The only fear of death I have is that some moron police officer will taze me for refusing to comply, THAT WOULD INDEED KILL ME. Wake up people. I have been correct, as in right since the start of this insanity. Does anybody have a functioning brain anymore?

  4. With respiratory season coming up, expect everything to raml up again. Canada has a case explosion im the last few weeks and deatgs ramping up will follow. Theres about a 3 week delay.

  5. soooooo president narcissist gets THE TOP CARE AVAILABLE then dismisses covid as a minor thing

    daon be fwaidy cats

    pompous jackass

    Ive totally changed my mind about this the most divisive el presidente in 60 bloody years.

    1. “president narcissist gets THE TOP CARE AVAILABLE then dismisses covid as a minor thing”

      Top care or not, if President Trump went to Walter/Reed ‘out of an abundance of caution’ as his doctor said while the President had merely tested positive and was asymptomatic, then the President’s direct experience of COVID19 was a minor thing for him.

  6. Masks? Right now it’s all about “Kontrol”, not health any more. And I suspect it has been so since Day One. If you’re still spouting the Party “line” on masks after all the data out there today, I’ve got some moose pasture for sale, just for you. Cheap.

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