1/ 2147 close contacts of 157 #COVID19 cases were followed up: Overall infection rate was 6%, higher infection rate among friends (22%) and household (18%), and main risk factors include contact in household (13%), transport (11%), dining (7%). https://t.co/QBSZVSjylU (4/3/20) pic.twitter.com/sh6hH0WjTw
— Dr Muge Cevik (@mugecevik) May 4, 2020
Finally, some solid data on transmission risks. It’s mostly good news, meaning that mitigation can be more accurately targeted. It largely explains the infection clusters — high density populations, nursing homes, plant workers living in close quarters. Read the full thread.
I read through that and what I see is a process or system, whatever it is termed, that would reflect the same for any viral outbreak. The most important thing is still how many fatalities and hospitalizations per capita. As shown it is always highest in the most densely populated areas. I have said about all I am going to say. Fear is our enemy and that enemy is winning. Carry on.
I missed your analysis yesterday on the Michael Yon thread.
Owg, apologies for the cheek in my earlier comment.
I sometimes type something snarky when I’m irritated but usually delete it. Forgot to delete this one.
And yet, our brilliant city mayors and developers continue to plan for city densification, with tiny apartments and shared spaces.
The promoted lifestyle. Bike to your office cubicle job, then work out with lots of sweaty people at the gym, pick up food that someone else made at urban fare, hoping they washed their hands.
Enjoy one tiny beer on a patio, or go to a big, fake gathering with loud music and food trucks serving fake meat. Bike home to your tiny apartment In a giant concrete building with shared ventilation. Spend the evening binging on low quality entertainment on your filtered internet. Zone out on pot.
Perfect lifestyle for the next virus? Have we learned nothing from other plagues?
It largely explains the infection clusters — high density populations, nursing homes, plant workers living in close quarters.
Yeah, I’m not seeing anything here that doesn’t rate a “well, duh!” from the average thoughtful (or at least not-totally-clueless) person. Experts — always telling us stuff we already knew.
Now if they’d just start doing random sample testing of subpopulations, we’d get an idea of the true population infection rate, and thus a true estimate of the likelihood of mortality of this disease, but noooooooo — that would only require approximately 400 random tests for each sub-pop to produce a point estimate with typical confidence level and interval, which would be too easy, fast and inexpensive. Can’t have that now, can we?
Garth, they don’t want to know, they like to speculate. It is much easier to come up with the results you are looking for, if you know said results beforehand. This is, apparently, the new way of doing “Science” as your new overlords like to call it. Time for the revolution.
Owg,
Wrt “fear is our enemy & the enemy is winning”
You are not wrong in the main,
and yet I believe there is more going on, more to consider.
If we don’t understand the nature and metrics of the threat confronting us, we can not expect to overcome it.
A constant concern over the past 3 months pertains to vast numbers of voters who seem to misunderstand at least part of what is happening.
The wuhan flu is a new hazard and we have lots of gaps & misinformation in our collective understanding.
It’s a new & massive front in the culture war that imo, we are losing.
The goal immediately in front of us, should be the safest & quickest exit from lockdowns, whilst trying not to blunder into the jaws of the next stage, battle, front, whatever.
Quick by itself is not a great plan.
To play on your words a bit… we need to fear more than just fear.
We need to understand how the disease spreads, how it infects, why it is a mortal threat to some but minor to others & much more.
The fear of the chi-com-covid represents a weapon to some & they are using it effectively. But saying “buck it up butter cup” to everyone not already in lockstep with you is not an effective defense.
The PERCEPTION of the threat, in the minds eye of the urbanite voter – who typically defers more to experts (both real & questionable), follows the MSM for news etc etc, is very important to us. They elected Trudeau.
They elected Notley.
They elected Wynne.
The Wuhan flu is the latest, greatest invasion of gators into the culture war swamp.
Assuming the Wuhan flu is no big deal, stop being afraid, just carry on etc misses the mark. The message is appears condescending & will not sway nearly enough urbanite voters. As bad as some may think Kenney or Ford is, can you imagine Notley or Wynne in charge right now?
My apologies to Kate for veering off topic. And my thanks, for persevering & staying on this massive threat.
The way forward is not driven by SJW or Communist group Control
1. I would hope Muslims will be able to live as Muslims Again
2. I would hope Christians will be able to live as Christians Again
3. I would hope Illegal Aliens will be able to live as Illegal Aliens Again
4 I would hope NA Indians will be able to live as Indians Again…
5 I would hope Black Americans will be able to live as Black Americans Again (without a hyphen)
Crush the Drug & Human Cartels
Crush the Communist agencies of Global Governance (Mckinsey)
Crush the NY/NJ Mob connections (Geraldine Ferraro/Cuomo)
JMHO
Transmission dynamics: China to everywhere else. Always.
Thank you, yes that does seem to have some historical perspective to it. Let’s keep those flights coming in they said. Let’s announce we are doing screening to console the herd they said. Let’s send $ to the WHO, who will not call it what it is the CCPvirus, they said. Scum.
https://pandemic.warroom.org/
bverwey
Public transit is the second most popular way to get a dose of the bat soup fever.
Good news for the auto sector! And for oil companies.!