Wuhan Flu

Wuhan Flu 120 Comments

Let’s review: the risk is not low, the virus spreads through air, and the supply chain is not ok.

What Everyone’s Getting Wrong About the Toilet Paper Shortage.

There’s another, entirely logical explanation for why stores have run out of toilet paper — one that has gone oddly overlooked in the vast majority of media coverage. It has nothing to do with psychology and everything to do with supply chains. It helps to explain why stores are still having trouble keeping it in stock, weeks after they started limiting how many a customer could purchase.
 
In short, the toilet paper industry is split into two, largely separate markets: commercial and consumer. The pandemic has shifted the lion’s share of demand to the latter. People actually do need to buy significantly more toilet paper during the pandemic — not because they’re making more trips to the bathroom, but because they’re making more of them at home. With some 75% of the U.S. population under stay-at-home orders, Americans are no longer using the restrooms at their workplace, in schools, at restaurants, at hotels, or in airports.
 
Georgia-Pacific, a leading toilet paper manufacturer based in Atlanta, estimates that the average household will use 40% more toilet paper than usual if all of its members are staying home around the clock. That’s a huge leap in demand for a product whose supply chain is predicated on the assumption that demand is essentially constant. It’s one that won’t fully subside even when people stop hoarding or panic-buying.

Related: Milk dumping has begun, processors are being hit by employee illness, and despite high retail demand, prices for all classes of feeder cattle dropped $10-20 per hundredweight. Some producers decided not to sell this past week and some cattle were passed on electronic markets. Auction volumes in the three prairie provinces were down 55 percent compared to last year. It’s the same in the UK.

Update: Food shortages in India begin

Related links and ground level observations (positive or negative) are invited in the comments.

120 Replies to “Wuhan Flu”

  1. “Georgia-Pacific, a leading toilet paper manufacturer based in Atlanta, estimates that the average household will use 40% more toilet paper than usual if all of its members are staying home around the clock. That’s a huge leap in demand for a product whose supply chain is predicated on the assumption that demand is essentially constant. It’s one that won’t fully subside even when people stop hoarding or panic-buying.”

    LOL Wut?
    Are people shitting more?
    Wouldn’t that increased demand be offset by the decrease in the demand for toilet paper resupply for now-closed places of business?

    1. People are shitting AT HOME more. There is plenty of TP but a certain percentage of the market is industrial product. The demand for industrial product has gone down, and the demand for domestic product has gone up.

      1. In days of old
        When knights were bold
        And paper not invented
        They used blades of grass to wipe their ass
        And walked away contented

        …. anonymous
        from the washroom at the beach in Clear Lake MB (circa 1955)

    3. Have you ever used a publik toilet? Do they have the same nice three ply quilted soft to touch stuff you use at home, you know the one with kittens and bunnies on the packaging? Or do they have the thin, leave shit on your finger unless you use twenty sheets at the time sand paper? Do you see that the two products are not the same and are not exchangeable unless customers have no other choice?

      1. No, commercial businesses have John Wayne toilet paper. It’s rough and tough and takes no sh*t off this cowboy.

  2. The entire thing has been massively overblown, as far as I can tell what basically happened is the media and political elites saw this virus and thought “Oh how cute, a few of the crazy nutjobs are concerned” then they decided to call it racist as a way to advance their agenda, and then when they realized that, yes reality exists, and viruses are still dangerous then went all out panic authoritarian because that fits their agenda as well

    This entire situation has been a mess and if things haven’t returned to mostly normal by the end of April the world’s economy will pay the price for years to come

    In related news the little dictator of NYC, de Blasio is calling for enslavement of medical workers:

    “Earlier on Friday, the city’s mayor Bill de Blasio called on President Trump to create a mandatory enlistment for healthcare workers in order to sufficiently staff hospitals. ”

    Source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8186835/Wealthy-NYC-businesses-board-stores-defend-against-civil-unrest-virus-decimates-NYPD.html

    Yeah that’s not a scary precedent at all

    1. The same Bill de Blasio who told everyone to get out and party.

      Question: did he do this deliberately, knowing full well that the maim street media would blame the resulting deaths on Trump?

  3. Bull. My wife and I are “stay at homes”. I crap bigger than her, by the way. I’m bigger than her. Usage hasn’t increased a bit around here. Suddenly folks crap more today than they did before? Well, maybe some are more loose than others. “I’m skeered”. Once daily, whether I need it of not. You needed to know that, I’m sure. LOL! Can’t speak for the Wife.

    1. Did you or Teach actually read the article? read it again and pay attention. The article didn’t say people are shitting more. It said people who used to shit at work and at restaurants are now shitting at home because they are not at work and all the restaurants are closed. The demand has not changed, the demand for DOMESTIC product has gone up and the demand for COMMERCIAL product has gone down.

      1. There’s a spot I know
        Where the view’s just fine
        And I don’t need a dime
        To spend some time

        From the Johson Bar Blues. My first bush camp had a guy who could play and sing Leon Redbone, very well in fact. He was from Syria no less. Well, an Armenian in Syria. Taught us all about spitting one evening and where on the social scale one spat in the Middle East (never up scale), always down. From: The Things You Learn Away From Home.

        And for the anal retentive, over sensitive folks posting here today, there was a Reader’s Digest reg’lar feature called “Humor In Uniform” where folks under more stress at the time than is posted on this blog got stuff off their chests….with humor. Grab some, your sourpuss is showing.

      2. People should be more like me. I shit once a day and in the morning right after breakfast. I can’t remember the last time I shit else where other than home or a hotel room. Be god damned if I will take a shit at Tim’s or restaurant or gas station. Anyway as for you Trumpets, you should be more like me, being able to recognize the utter bullshit spewing from that blithering idiot of a president.

        1. You keep saying Trump is a blithering idiot (your jaundiced opinion/no examples) while making blithering idiotic statements yourself. And we’re supposed to take you seriously? And, since you’re a Canadian (and not one of the bright Canadians) your opinion of my President is not only faulty but totally irrelevant.

        2. I always shit at home, same time, everyday at 06-30.
          Problem is I don’t get up till 7.

        3. The country’s most powerful Democrats (Pelosi, Schumer, and of course most big city mayors) all called Trump’s China travel ban racist. And the WHO told the whole planet there was no human to human transmission of the virus. Now who exactly are the blithering idiots?

  4. So they need 40% more and respond by buying 400% more? No, that’s not a logical response to an actual projected need, it’s just herd mentality run amok.

  5. The whole issue is idiotic. TP is a largely unneeded luxury product. It has no intrinsic value, you can’t eat it. And its use can be made largely redundant by staying at home. The only thing being demonstrated here is how unfit people are now to think rationally about how to get by during times of supply interruption. None of these people panic-buying TP would have been capable of surviving rationing during the war, let alone the true poverty of the Great Depression.

    Georgia-Pacific is right that this entire issue is about hoarding and panic-buying.

    1. That’s not what they said. Read it again. And believe me, toilet paper is not a minor issue to the thousands of people who have gastrointestinal symptoms of diseases (I’m one).

        1. I bet sales of those are skyrocketing.
          Saw one in Costco for $480.00. Wired in heated type.
          Hmmmm.

      1. Isn’t this the same LIEberal party that cried and screamed and shamed Canadians to Save the Post Office?

        Oh, but that was SO 2015

  7. “Milk dumping” isn’t new. Government subsidies in the US have encouraged dairy overproduction for decades and as factory farms become more efficient, smaller obsolete family farms are going under but they are taking way too long about. I’m tired of hearing sob story after sob story about dairy farmers who just can’t put 2 and 2 together.

  9. I go to Mom and Pop convenience stores for my “Royale” TP.

    Convenience stores have their own supply chain.

    1. I’ve seen plenty of TP at Staples, Mom and Pop stores, Home Hardware just as an example.

      Lately I’ve been doing my shopping at the lowest volume retailers I can think of and usually find everything I need. It’s worth paying more to avoid Wal-Mart and Superstore these days.

  10. On the topic of suply and demand.

    Everyone went ga-ga over Trump’s comments about the face masks. Would it be OK if we were out of masks here in Canada and our government shipped ours abroad?? What am I saying?? That’s already happened. And Trudeau is saying that ample medical supplies are on their way.

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/pm-trudeau-says-more-medical-supplies-coming-in-days-as-industry-retools-1.4875690

    But why wasn’t this story on the leftist media??

    https://nationalpost.com/news/world/russian-plane-takes-off-for-u-s-with-coronavirus-help-onboard

    1. Der Schwarzen Prinz says they are coming from China. If so, they better check them over very closely. The Netherlands sent 600,000 back to China as they were defective and there are other reports of others being “pre-infected”. Maybe we should make der Schwarzen Prinz wear some for a while as he hides under his bed.

  11. Went out shopping after a 14 day isolation. Plenty of toiler paper in the store (even on sale). Bought one package. Virtually no milk, little pasta, no frozen breaded chicken (wasn’t interested anyway), very little flour. Plenty in the produce department.

    1. @Sporty. Regarding flour, I read an article about the large increase in demand for yeast. People have a lot of time on their hands and many are making bread for fun.

      1. I couldn’t find any baker’s yeast in the nearby grocery store yesterday. Maybe it’s time I tried a recipe for unleavened bread.

        1. Sourdough requires only flour, water ,salt and sourdough starter/leaven, which you can “hatch” in 3-5 days (flour +water, and let it sit, in a glass container, at room temp, cover with cheesecloth of you have some. Add a little more flour and water each day). Making the bread is time-consuming but so worth it.

          1. Over the years, I’ve baked all sorts of different breads, thanks to The Complete Book of Breads. White bread, whole wheat bread, French bread, rye bread, egg braid, even a type of Mongolian flat bread, but never sourdough.

            I might have to try it some time.

  12. The beef link says big agri is lobbying for an increase and expedited foreign temporary workers. Our unemployment is at record levels. Pay Canadians to do the job. Who do they think is going to buy their product? Greed.

    1. More likely a desire for experienced farm workers and not a waiter from the city.

    2. Most likely they cannot get locals to do it ant any price.
      It’s not greed, necessity.

  13. So, heres a good joke… a Drama Teacher a Graphic Artist a woman from China and some Media douchebags invite a deadly virus from China into the country they rule over… they willfully and joyfully lie about the virus everyday… they smirk and sneer at their captive audience as they repeat talking points written for them by the Communist Chinese party… the borders remain wide open… they chastise our biggest ally… then they give away our PPE to the people that created the virus, all while the drama teacher / lead actor hides under the bed in his taxpayer funded Mansion even though he is not sick and refuses to be tested… they build a makeshift stage with a podium at the front entrance of the Mansion and perform a grade 8 drama play everyday, a play about lisping, retardation, hair dye, eyebrow glue and senseless emoting signifying absolutely nothing… they then raise taxes while 50% of the population are losing their jobs, they give themselves a big fat pay raise using other peoples borrowed money… they then get re-elected by 23% of the population giving them a defacto super majority where the laughs keep on coming… and the punchline is… Canada, the dumbest place on Earth.

  14. Something I haven’t hear a proper explanation for is staff shortages in grocery stores. That’s apparently happening. Are they ill? Too scared to be exposed? What’s the deal and is it happening in the manufacturing sector too? How about farming? Is it still going ok? If not there’s going to be some issues and not one of these idiot politicians are thinking about it.

    1. I believe it’s called the “right to refuse dangerous work,” and it has been used, en masse, by EI bureaucrats at Govt of Canada Service Centers. Not surprised to hear cashiers are starting to bail.

      1. There may be some of that, but another factor is they need more staff to follow the new rules. It takes the cashiers longer to ring you through, they have to clean the baskets after every customer, there’s more time spent cleaning the store, etc.

  15. The toilet paper shitshow is just stupid.
    Out this morning, waiting in a line to enter a store, people were standing 10,12,15 feet apart. If you’re that scared stay home like PM Juthtin, the Black Queer. Or if you don’t know how much 6 feet is please jump off a bridge.
    I was behind a shuffling, near-sighted Chicom who wasn’t moving forward till I told him, “Pay attention, buddy.” Then I laughed.

    1. Chinese lung aids is serious business man. If you get it you have a half decent chance of dying. I’d rather stay away from people than risk getting kungflu.

    2. The virus can infect from quite a bit farther than 6 feet in various circumstances. And somebody does not need to cough on you. (You’re a compassionate type, aren’t you.)

      1. I figure that if I can smell someone 2 metres away (I’ll let you figure out what I mean by that), I have a chance of catching their bug.

        1. Makes you think when you can smell a person or a horse long before or after they pass by. Especially fabric softener. Covid 19 is 0.125 microns. We are relying on “wet capture” (suspect I know what you mean) which is how you should clean a respirable dust environment.

          Some interesting size comparisons: https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/particle-sizes-d_934.html

          Just as the South Korea virologist suggested evaporation, I bet we could spitball a number of theories around how viri could be liberated. There had to be a reason for all that fumigation. I believe we will see the scientific consensus on what we know about virus aerosols shift.

      2. No, there’s absolutely no evidence of that.

        I love SDA and I have nothing but respect for Kate, but this issue is turning into SDA’s Rathergate.

  16. Blah blah blah….just stock the commercial stuff in the consumer stores until the consumer stock catches up at some point ffs. Who cares if its too thin or too this or too f*ckng that.

  17. BTW anyone remember those evil 1-sheet-at-a-time dispensers that public toilets used to be plagued with?

      1. Glue it to some thin cardboard and you’ve got some nice 220-grit sandpaper. Good for buffing the fine silver wear.

    1. A free market solution would solve this.

      If companies in North America started raising prices, people would complain of price gouging. Instead, in a tolerant and naive socuety such as Canada, our prices are kept low, the Daigou buy EVERYTHING, and make lots of cash off our tolerance. Chinese citizens end up paying 4x, 10x the price we would pay. But, the Chinese citizens actually have the end products.

      If manufacturers would be able to increase prices (law supply demand), then production would ramp up (everyone wants profits) , higer prices temporarily, and the daigou would eventually be priced out of the market.

      But more importantly, western manufacturing would increase production and profits. And would be supplying China. imagine that!

      A basic economical lesson, playing out in real life.

      1. The Daigou LAUGH at “1 per customer” limits.

        Oh western gwáilóu !!! So naive!!!

      2. Daigou exist to get around import tariffs (which make them heroes). You’re right about the free market being the solution but the immediate diagnosis is not what you think.

      3. Yup, the idea that merchants shouldn’t charge more in times of shortage just means that the shortages will become outages.

        If, on the other hand, the merchant limits to regular price for the first two, up to double for the next two, up to triple for the next two, etc (or a simple doubling for each limit reached). The way the merchant would benefit from this would be with credit cards and facial recognition. Because some people are going to try to cheat and go in multiple times. The facial recognition will note them, the extra charges can be applied on their credit card. Or, multiple purchases from the same credit card means same household, the limits (and back-charges) apply. “I agree to this pricing scheme by shopping at this merchant”, sign or tap on the dotted line.

  20. Seriously? How does that account for the millions of people who cannot “go” in a public washroom and will only go at home? Besides, are you trying to tell us that the commercial owners are the ones hoarding all the t.p.?

    1. Of all the offices, restaurants, sporting venues etc that I’ve visited, none used the “home use” brands of toilet paper that stores sell to the public.

      So I think there is a lot of truth to the explanation Kate posted.

      But governments are telling everyone stay home. So it’s only natural that people stock up. They’d like to limit their visits to the store.

      Did people over estimate their needs. Most probably. But TP has no shelf life, so what harm is there to the individual if they buy too much? You want to risk getting sick to buy some more?

      Lastly the stores, and to a certain extent the rest of the supply chain operate with a stocking level based upon prior purchases. It costs money to store stuff in warehouses.

      I’m just hoping the gang greens run out. They can then use grass, moss, or leaves. Hopefully poison ivy or stinging nettle leaves.

  21. Limiting is absurd as it makes people shop more frequently, exposing more of them to the virus.
    But C.A.N.A.D.ians have never been famous for logical thinking, just for following the orders. Congratulations!
    The plastic screens at the cash registers are pathetic. The lack of hygiene is pathetic. But so much smugness and self-righteousness!

  22. Toilet paper has evolved since the outhouse days, we have much better products with multiple plies, I’m sure there are some which are even non-skid reversible for anyone wanting to experiment. Problem is, toilet paper is the least of our problems.

    Nice to know we have a huge shipment of masks coming in from China, the birthplace of all this shit we are going through.

  23. The supply chain is not OK. I just saw a gopher in the yard standing in the snow chewing on a dead deer-mouse. I know the gopher is normally a vegetarian but what’s really scary is that he doesn’t seem at all concerned about the Hanta-Virus.

  24. I think the real reason is that if one person sneezes, 100 people around them shit their pants.

  25. I dare not wade into the scatological arguments … however with respect to the Food Chain … Sundance at the CTH revealed that a full 50% of America’s food supply is delivered through Restaurants … and 50% through grocery stores. That little factoid blew my mind, as we only occasionally dine out at restaurants … probably no more than 5% of our food consumption. So the 50% number was a mindblower to me.

    Therefore … America has LOST 50% of our food supply. One would think … “well the food makers would simply deliver more to the grocery stores”. But it’s not quite so easy to reorganize the delivery contracts and divert all that increased demand for product quite so fast.

    But what really bakes my noodle is that both Safeway and Costco have JACKED UP their meat prices … to … almost … profiteering levels. Almost … you would think with a newfound oversupply … ?

    1. @Kenji
      I noticed the last time I was at Super Store, that eggs took a big jump. Usually I could get eggs for $2.49 or thereabouts
      but the lowest price I saw earlier this week was $3.59/doz.

      1. Went to my local Safeway … a MAJOR grocery store chain … and there were NO eggs. None. Not a single carton. Eggs are fairly perishable. You can’t really hoard eggs. How incompetent is that store manager … or corporate?

        1. Stores are getting shorted on all kinds of stuff. There’s a problem with the supply chain. When they answer a question no one asked you know they’re lying.

        2. I was at the nearby Safeway several days ago and was told that there might be a chance of bleach being back on the shelves by the end of this week. I was there yesterday. Zip. Nichts. Rein.

          1. Check hardware stores. Half the display was still there at Rona last week, about 1/4 still in place at Home Depot.

            London Drugs had some interesting gaps in the soap aisle. Anything that had “antibacterial” in the name was sold out. Regular soap, just as strong of anti-viral effects, almost none sold.

    2. What’s helping a little bit is restaurants in many areas are currently allowed to sell the raw products of their meals, and are doing so at decent prices, e.g., you can buy uncooked steak, sweet potatoes, other potatoes, salad, etc. at Longhorn at go home and cook it yourself if you prefer that to taking out a cooked meal.

    3. Kenji, on line P-94 masks, about 80 bucks each, I walked to my shop and there were 4 of the suckers, 2 good one, and 2 pooched ones. I’ll sell you the pooched ones for 50 bucks each, you pay postal charges:-)))

        1. Chinese kid to his mom:
          Why does the liquid melamine taste unusually milky today?
          Answer:
          Its because the Western dairy farmers are dumping their milk and superior Chinese are rescuing it from the sewer.

    2. @Quicksilver.
      That will be very tough to do, try to by any electronics not made in China.

      1. Higher end HDTVs are made in Mexico like my Sony 4K. LG and Samsung are made in S Korea. Other countries that mfg are Malaysia and Thailand.
        I didnt say it would be easy.
        And it’s going to take time.
        It wont be cheap and it wont happen until we want them to change their supply chain.

  28. Are dcotors giving a widely available drug to patients? One that is used in Schweppes Tonic water? 5 days of 500mg per day ends the infection as it prevents the virus from multiplying.

    Are our governments advocating the widespread use of “pointless” masks as they have done in the Czech Republic?

    Why not?

    1. Governments are taking their talking points from the syphilitic filthy chineezer pencildicks in Beijing. Don’t expect anything from them. Madame Defarge needs to pull out her knitting.

  29. When the cattle market shifts ranchers might hold back for a week or two but those bovine have to be fed. The feed lot guys have few options. Margins are typically narrow and once a market steer is ready to go he has to go. Feeding him another week or two waiting for the market to shift usually costs you money.

    BBQ season is here. Hopefully people have some money to buy a little beef.

  31. “virus spreads through air” Kate
    That is a unscientific Statement with out defining the Air space….Any thing is diminished by mixing with a huge volume of Air/// The ability to project sufficient particles is said to be limited (21 feet max)… I would suggest that sneezing into a fan “may” dilute and prevent an infective concentration of the virus….

    JMHO

    1. What she said will make more sense if you watch the video Robert posted a few days ago with the Korean virologist.

      https://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/03/30/unfilltered-commentary-from-a-world-class-virologist/

      iirc in his terminology, he drew a distinction between “aerosol” transmission, e.g., you sneeze and the droplets travel about two metres before reaching the ground, versus “airborne”, which wouldn’t necessarily need sneezing and would involve smaller droplets travelling further. According to him, there were a few cases which seemed to be airborne transmission, but he thought those were in unusual circumstances.

      But who knows? Every day there’s new news and half of yesterday’s news turns out to be false.

  32. Maybe we could get those plane-loads from China to drop off a few packages, they must be up to the wazoo over there with the government they have.

  33. There is a god. Quebec is leading the country in cases. For once Quebec is being productive.

    1. Froggi came home from his EI winter holiday in FL and spread the love around. They don’t quarantine. The rules don’t apply to them.

  35. I’ve been looking into this connection between the Wuhan lab and the Winnipeg facility where the Chinese scientist-spies were working. Then I found this link on a Winnipeg based website with an extremely lame sounding disclaimer apparently written by somebody in our federal government …

    https://accesswinnipeg.com/2020/01/did-chinese-scientists-steal-the-coronavirus-from-a-winnipeg-lab/

    Check that out and see if that isn’t the lamest sounding set of excuses — nothing to see here, citizen, move along.

    This story was reported at the time too, not like it was covered up, but the best one could say about this would be lax security and shockingly poor judgement. Maybe that’s being too kind. When we have this pandemic under control, I think it’s time to dig deeper into our links to China and spare nobody, right to the top of the food chain, for me a lame explanation like the one offered is insulting and nothing more than a casual attempt to avoid responsibility.

    Of course it also shines the spotlight back on the Chinese government. What actually happened in Wuhan? Experiment gone wrong? Deliberate bio-engineering? Random occurrence that they instantly recognized being familiar with their research results? In any of those scenarios, what decisions were then made, and why?

    As for Justin Trudeau, I don’t trust him, his decision to remain out of sight invites speculation and I believe a good move at this point would be for any thirty Liberal MPs who share this distrust to form a parliamentary alliance with the CPC, get a change in government within the rules of parliament, and dump Trudeau entirely, take him out of all further decision making in Canada. Nobody in western Canada trusts this guy, how do you like him now in the east? Is this a good time to be governed by a self-declared sympathizer of our apparent global enemy?

    1. I dont know if the chicoms stole the virus from Canada’s secure lab or not. It’s not beyond the realm of possibility.

      Anybody remember Canada’s culpability over India developing the bomb? We sold them a Candu (Pakistan as well) and, as they say, the rest is history.

  36. I believe this just may be the ‘famine’ that Kate has been suggesting western society needs to face.

    Over the next many weeks and months, ignorant progressives trapped in their Utopian-leftist big cities are about to get one helluva wake-up call about the true fragility of their pampered existence.

    2. We could really add to the utopian-leftist big city pain by shutting off all their oil and natural gas.

      1. …and then you’d have no money. The cities are the world and don’t you forget it.

        “ignorant progressives trapped in their Utopian-leftist big cities are about to get one helluva wake-up call about the true fragility of their pampered existence”

        They’re going to watch NetFlix and play vidya and wash their hands a lot. Some of them will lose their parents.

        1. Cities produce no food. Scary how your ilk is so clueless about how the world actually works.

          1. Doesn’t matter they can just buy the food from almost anywhere in the world. Soon, vertical farms will bring the farming to cities.

  37. But the companies that are really having a hard time with this “social distancing” are those who produce deodorant and mouth wash.

  39. Where I come from in the north-east of England we poorer folks of the working class were known as the “black-arsed”. In those days store-bought bum fodder was a luxury beyond our budget and so the local editions of the Evening Gazette and the Pink’Un were pressed into relief service. Trouble was the ink used to come off the newsprint rather easily in those days………………….

    1. Yup, my dad remembered using the Sears catalog the same way. The last pages left were the shiny ones with colour pictures.

  40. Explained by the difference between consumer and commercial butt wipe – not likely but maybe a bit. Consumer butt wipe consumption is likely predictable to within a percentage or two. Today, warehousing is not a big thing with just in time delivery being the cost saving way to go. Consumers, by buying an extra 30 roll likely pulled a couple month supply out of the system for which there is absolutely no way to make up in the short=term and nobody is going to invest in the long-term to meet a short-term demand. It will take time to work out and my advice is to nab that 48 roll whenever you see it – just in case.

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