It’s Probably Nothing

America just held a nationwide IQ test. Did you notice it?

Everyone who has said about coronavirus that, “It’s just the flu,” failed the IQ test. As did those who claim discussing coronavirus is “spreading panic.”
 
They are engaging in what Scott Adams calls Loserthink.[…]
 
You will almost certainly not die from the coronavirus.
 
If the coronavirus contagion and death rates are accurate, between one and three million Americans could die.
 
When you have a low risk of a pandemic with a death count exceeding the total number of Americans who died in World War II, you take precautions.
 
Reasonable minds can differ as to what those precautions are.
 
But if you’re not thinking about coronavirus in terms of fat tail risk, you’re not even allowed to be part of the conversation.

Related: Italy moves to Wuhan inspired quarantine status.

65 Replies to “It’s Probably Nothing”

  1. One of the comments I saw somewhere was from an “enlightened” person who “felt” that wuhan virus was just an excuse for xenophobia.

    Stupid people are just as entertaining as professional comedians.

    1. They may be bots as well. The LPC had deployed bots to the comments sections of ethnic online publications in Canada. They use google-translated slogans from the LPC talking points and thus become evident eyesores.

    2. c’mon mr so what, that’s your cue. ya fcuktard. do you have kids in school?????? anybody in health care profession??????
      (apologies to johnboy for glomming onto your post to get mine at the top)

  2. Cernovich also claimed AOC was some kind of charismatic second coming who couldn’t be stopped. Whatever.

    Meanwhile, I’m currently in Singapore. No quarantine, schools open, life pretty well unchanged and 130 cases. Hong Kong and most of the region the same. China basically doe with it. South Korea an aberration because a kooky church visited an infected area in China.

    It’s a serious virus. But I’m living in the midst of it and the people panicking on Twitter are not reflecting reality.

  3. Actually I am pleased that the media is “going on and on” with the corona virus news – hopefully, that means not much else is happening in the world. I remember the summer of 1978, living in Toronto, and all that was on the news was “Baby Herbie” – this little baby boy who needed special surgery. There was not much else happening that summer.
    Take good health care precautions and carry on (as the British would say).

  4. My calculation at the beginning of the virus alert was simple.

    China put 50 million plus people on lock down.
    Canada has a has a population of 35 million plus.

    Conclusion: this thing is huge, bad ass and probably out of control.

    So of course, there was lots of time for PM Butt – no wait – Pm Trudeau to look for a new job with the UN.
    Gee, I wonder how it feels to be linked forever to the dumbest PM this country ever had?

    1. As Louisiana says, “Thank God for Mississippi”.
      I was going to say as a American, “Thank God for Canada”, but thats out because we got a farm team of stupid that is 10 times yours.

      1. I’m gonna steal that “farm team of stupid” from ya, if you don’t mind. I think we’re about equal on percentages up here. Just more space between ’em in comparison.

  5. “By May 8th every hospital bed in America will be occupied. “

    I doubt it, but I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

  6. I recently had a discussion with extended family members about the impacts of the corona virus and its mortality rate. Consider the following: The last numbers I heard were that it had a 3.4% fatality rate. Based on those numbers, a household with 6 people has between a 1 in 5 to 6 chance of someone dying (assuming all in the household get infected). Combined with how quickly it is spreading, that scares the bejeebers out of me (I have 4 young kids—3 of whom have asthma). It thus becomes imperative to take steps to both prepare for and act to minimize the likelihood of catching that virus.

    1. How do you get 1 in 5 chances of dying from 3.4 %?

      3.4 % is 3.4 people dying out of 100 infected people ,

      or roughly 1 in 30

      for every 30 who caught the virus, one will die

      1 in 30 is not 1 in 5

      how do you get one in five?

      1. If you have 5 people in your family, 1 in 30 becomes 5 in 30, or 1 in 6. A 20% chance of someone dying in your immediate family is serious.

        1. If you have 30 people in your extended family, 1 in 30 becomes 30 in 30. A 100% chance of someone dying in your extended family is not only extremely serious but a certainty.

          Your work in probability needs some remediation.

          1. That’s not how statistics works. If you have 366 people in a room, the chances that one of them was born February 29th is not 100%.

          2. exactly Ed. NOTHING in probability calculation can be 100%.
            ie it moves from the true meaning of probability (associated with only FUTURE possible events) to CERTAINTY.

            it’s like calculating the ‘odds’ of a thing that has already happened. lotsa people make that mishtake.
            look up the discussion of the monty hall ‘which curtain’ thing. they do the same thing there, *incorporating KNOWN historical events in the calculation*

          3. Ed and hb are right. That’s not how probability works.
            To Ed Minchau, here is something most people find incredible but true. I was reminded of that when you mentioned birthdays. If you have occasions to have roomful of people (doesn’t take 366, 23 will do), you may be able to make money off side bets.
            Say if you have 23 people, and you are willing to bet that two of them have the same birthday. What kind of odds can you get?
            The actual odds are better than 50% that you are right. The beauty is that the calculation is based on random events. Any factor that skews the probability, such as more births in the fall due to the long winter nights, will improve the probability.
            With 32 people, the odds are better than 75%. And with 41 people, the odds are better than 90%.
            Alternatively, you can ask 15 people to write down a number from 0 to 49. The odds are better than 90% that two of them will write the same number.

        2. Those rates aren’t uniform across age groups or even sex. In fact, for some reason coronavirus is very, very mild for children. It’s death rates are a bit higher for men and considerably higher for the elderly. But if my kids had asthma, I’d be extra vigilant too.

          Then there is selection bias in the quoted 3.4% rate. Only people who are feeling really ill are being tested which skews the result to the higher side.

      2. “household with 6 people has between a 1 in 5 to 6 chance of someone dying”
        No very rigorous but close.
        Chance of all six in household living ==>
        (1.00 – .034) ** 6 = .0813 or 81% – this is equivalent to %19 chance someone dies. That is roughly 1 in 5 !

        This assumes statistically independent results – a family most likely is not – if they share DNA and that affects mortality ?

        1. I don t know how you get 19%

          if 3 out of 100 lottery tickets have the winning number

          the fact that 6 people under the same roof each hold a ticket does not change the fact that only 3% of the 100 tickets have the winning number

          their chances of winning the lottery do not jump up to 19 % because they are in the same family and under the same roof

          the 3.4 % of the infected dying of corona virus remain the same 3.4 % no matter that the group of people is 600 , or 6 million or just 6 people

          3.4 % is 3.4 %, the size of the group does not change that 3.4 %

          1. “I don t know how you get 19%

            if 3 out of 100 lottery tickets have the winning number”

            The problem is that you don’t know how many tickets have the winning number as you have not drawn them all. You have drawn less than 10% of tickets. The other tickets are still in the hat (those are the ongoing cases). Some of them will be wins some will not. Out of the tickets that you have drawn (concluded cases) one out of five is a win….

          2. If you sell 100 lottery tickets and three of them are winners, then the chance of any INDIVIDUAL person holding a winning ticket is 3%

            But what is the probability that there is a winning ticket in that group of 100 people? It’s not 3%. It’s 100%

            Let’s take a toss of a fair coin. The probability of getting heads on a single toss is 50%.

            Now toss the coin twice. What is the probability of getting at least ONE head in the two tosses?

            The possible outcomes of two coin tosses are:

            TH
            TT
            HT
            HH

            So we have a 75% chance of getting at least one head in two tosses. It’s not 50%.

            So the original problem posed was; in a family of 6 what is the probability that ONE of the six will die?

            Not that person 1 will die. That’s still 3.4%

            Same for each of person 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.

            But the chance that ONE of the six dies is much higher than 3.4%.

            Forgive me for not providing the exact answer, I don’t feel like digging out my statistics texts. But I roughly calculate a probability of 17 to 20% that ONE person in that family of six will die.

            Two Enormous assumptions:

            1. Everybody gets infected.

            2. Once infected the death rate is really 3.4%.

            I propose that we really have no idea how many people get the virus and just have a mild flu.

            Me? I’m going to avoid large crowds, and religiously wash my hands very throughly after going outside, and before preparing food.

          3. The makeup of that group DOES make a difference. Statistical fact. Not the media would deviate from their Hyper Panic Meme. Be afraid, very afraid!

            If everyone is under 50, the stats say 0.2 out of 100 is a fatality, that’s 1 person in 600 in that age group.

            If everyone is over 70, then the rate is worse than 3.4%. Clearly our elderly need to take far more precautions than others, they have the most to lose, but what if they ignore that advice?

            A friends 76 year old mother is going on a group tour next week, to Italy, and she refuses to cancel. You can’t fix stupid, or greedy

            “Lies, Damned lies, and statistics”

            Mark Twain

      3. Actually the calculation goes this way (for sake of argument assume that the chances for every person is equal):
        Chances of the first person NOT dying of the virus is .966.
        Chances of the second person also NOT dying of the virus is .966*.966.
        Chances of the third person also NOT dying of the virus is .966*.966*.966
        Chances of the fourth person also NOT dying of the virus is .966*.966*.966*.966
        Chances of the fifth person also NOT dying of the virus is .966*.966*.966*.966*.966
        Chances none of the six people dying of the virus is .966*.966*.966*.966*.966*.966, which come out to be .812.

        I understand that RIMcMT replied to you above, but his reply was for the mathematically literate. Hopefully the above helps you to understand the derivation.

  7. I’ve made lots of comments on this subject. My concern isn’t for myself but for the elderly people I know. Like a mid-eighties mother. She’s pretty chill about it.
    But people who totally downplay it or use the flu analysis need a beating. They’re nose pickers who probably don’t wash their hands after taking a crap. People who panic are just plain stupid and need to be ignored.

    1. People keep talking about “the elderly.” Is being in your 70s (or even 60s) “elderly”? No. But if you’re past 60 and have any immune system issues or a digestive disease like Crohns which has an auto-immune component, or if you have asthma, or worse, COPD (emphysema, chronic bronchitis) — which is treatable, but itself the 3rd leading cause of death in NA: all those encompass some millions of people. All high risk. (I’m one.). Few of them, including me, would stand a chance against COVID-19.

  8. People who panic are indeed Beyond STUPID Buddy.
    Witness the great Toilet paper Exodus from Costco’s across North America this past week.

    I’m personally somewhat concerned having just undergone a 5 Bypass Cardiac operation (Feb 26), ..but not overly so…am working everyday to increase lung capacity – dont smoke, eat properly and wash my hands religiously. Living in an 890 sq ft condo, there’s not a lot of room for 1200 rolls of toilet paper anyway…lol.

  9. Actually its one of the viruses that causes the common cold(the other being rhinovirus), but this strain is on steroids.

  10. It never fails to amaze me how easy it is to get people to panic – environmental panics, stock market panics, disease panics. Humans are incredibly robust and this disease is not Ebola. It’s dangerous to older and sick people but most of us will shrug this bug off.

    There is some value though – the responses and reactions. How do people, governments and media react? Where are the problem areas in medical service, supply chains, travel and transportation? It’s a good test run, a drill that identifies the good, the bad and the ugly. Reminds of workplace exercises and training drills to test emergency response teams.

    1. Yea….like don’t be buying anything on WISH you wont need for 365 days at the earliest.

  11. The media keep changing their story, they contradict themselves,

    one example,

    a couple weeks ago they told us that such a virus is more active in cold weather,
    so as spring approaches and temperatures go up, less people will get infected, to not worry too much soon things will get better

    but now that Trump has said the same ; that warmer weather will help, the media – out of hatred for Trump – are saying its not true that warm weather will help, their need to make Trump look bad is greater than anything

    1. The media will claim anything to cause panic.

      It’s the only thing that can stop Trump 2020.

    1. With a large number of the seniors and elderly Canadians dying, the federal pension plan may switch into surplus.

      Is that part of the Justin Trudeau regime’s prediction : “The budget will balance itself !”

      And who do the older, more experienced Canadians vote for… Trudeau’s regime has a plan, they just can’t admit it.
      Is the plans code name ‘whoo-han-Iran’? Probably not, they’re scientifically illiterate but their axis powers aren’t.

  12. Again, there is a difference between panic and outrage.

    The Chinese communists developed and released a genetically modified virus for the purpose of murdering millions of Americans, simply because they refused to vote for their client, a woman who in a sane world would have gone to the gallows decades ago. The coronavirus is an act of war.

  13. Maybe.
    But the most basic intelligence is this.
    We are all going to die.
    Life is a sexually transmitted,terminal disease.
    This virus is of the flu like family.
    Crucial information seems to be lacking,the numbers from our communist comrades are unbelievable.
    Maybe if we take Italy in isolation we may have useful information.
    The nature of this virus and our immune systems reaction to it,is uncertain.
    Does it behave as the Spanish Flu?
    Or has it 3 cycles of increasing virulence?

    An intelligence test?
    Well we are all doomed then.
    The public health official from California,being a perfect manifestation of do as I say,not as I do.

    Once again,the reliance on institutions to deal with an unknown,has demonstrated their uselessness.
    The Nurse’s story being a perfect summation of how this rolling public failure is going to play out.

    Lets get ahead of the fearmongering..The Birds the birds..migratory flocks are bringing it North as we speak/type nowhere is safe..
    We are all going to die..

    See how easy it is.
    Attitude has a lot to do with coming down with “The Flu”.
    Being bummed out and festering over every little sniffle, well that is going to be the favourite pastime of our effete elites for months to come.
    I wonder what stupid little rituals we will come up with this time?
    What could be more wimpy than the “Fist bump”?

    Intelligence Test?
    In Can Ah Duh?

    1. “Maybe if we take Italy in isolation we may have useful information.”

      Sure. 7375 cases detected. 366 dead. 622 recovered. So far less than two recoveries per death. The floor is yours. Do go on with your wisdom.

      1. Colon, wops are notorious for NOT washing their paws, so they are a bad example to use, The Iranians are also cleanliness stupids, so another bad example. We need a group who know how and when to wash their paws, and those who don’t lick doors to prove they are immune to this sort of thing. Try keeping up fool!!

        1. Enema, you’re actually correct, of course completely lost re context of my post above but still factually correct. You have stated what I have been repeatedly hammering for the last week: we do not have a representative sample yet.

          Congrats, give yourself a gold star. How does it feel not be an idiot for once?

  14. I always enjoy columns by people who say, essentially,”this is MY OPINION,and anyone who doesn’t have EXACTLY the same take on my position is a fucking idiot/moron/mentally deranged sub-normal asshole”.

    Sometimes they couch it in nicer language. Yep, the corona virus is a serious issue, and yep,the flu DOES kill about 60,000 people in America every year, we all read the news,Mike, just as much as you do, so get the hell down off your high horse. SARS was a serious issue,so was MERS,Ebola, swine flu, and a myriad of other “emergencies”.

    Now,let’s get back to hoping that among the fatalities from this one are all the people we don’t like.

    Last year my brother came down with a strange illness while on an Alaska cruise, which I caught from him. The symptoms were the same as those of the coronavirus. Could we have been the lucky recipients of that now famous virus before it became the Star it is now? We were both sick for about two weeks but made a full recovery.

    My only lingering side effect was for a while there I figured the Toronto Maple Leafs could actually win the Stanley Cup this year, but I’ve recovered from that now,too.

  15. The real bombers of the IQ test are the woke feminists who are insisting on gathering worldwide for the communist Women’s Day.

    Rest assured Chinese intelligence agents are at those rallies, giving the virus to their sisters who will give the virus to their long-suffering menfolk—who are more likely to die from it than the sisterhood.

    Somehow this will also be Trump’s fault.

  16. Sadly, judging by multiple comments above, a lot of SDAers have failed the test.

  17. The test is quite simple; if you believe the corona virus is a global emergency and that we are all at risk, you are retarded.

    If you can explain how .015% of the Chinese population getting a bad cold would cause the rest of the world to run out of toilet paper, you are also retarded.

    1. If you fail to realize that in North America between 80 to 90 percent of one part of a medicine to the complete medicines are manufactured in China.

      China is shut down for their populations are refusing to go back to work. Any supplies that China has will be kept to be used in China.

      The North American market has tops of a 45 day buffer in medicine supplies let alone all the medically plastic throw away equipment to keep our healthcare going is largely made in China.

      1. There is a shortage of acetaminophen w/codeine. Since January.

        Supply chains broken.

        This basic cheap pain killer works for my intermittent issues, plain old aspirin and acetaminophen are useless. Allergic to ibuprofen and naproxen. Avoids stronger prescriptions w.side effects. Perhaps more Highland malt is required.

        The supply chain issues are real, and will be the more troublesome, extended fallout from this, with China, SKorea and Japan all severely impacted.

        1. The “just in time” stocking should be completely modified. Stock piling significant amounts of essential medical equipment and drugs, for instance. But also for items essential to the public like water treatment chemicals, parts for electrcity systems repair, etc.

      2. So world war three is biological and medicine dependant nations lose to the one who manufactures said medicines

  18. Um, people, just a reminder, you don’t always have to have a 9/11 to force new restrictions on populations. Even a flu will do. The IQ test came and some ate the pencil.

    1. It is probably for the best. At least you did not end up stuffing it up your nose this time.

  19. You go to Emergency. You wait in line for your turn to tell the nurse what is wrong with you. Behind you there is a nice Chinese couple. She is coughing from deep within her lungs. He is consoling her. It’s your turn. The nurse asks if you have a fever, cough, diarrhea or whether you have traveled anywhere during the past 2 weeks. You say no to all. You notice a sign that says the same thing the nurse has asked. The sign finishes with “if so then put on a mask”. The nurse tells you to take a seat. The nice Chinese couple approaches the nurse. She answers yes to all the questions. They give her a mask. They take a seat beside you.

    Inside you make small talk with another nurse. How is the coronavirus affecting the hospital you ask. Actually things have slowed down, she replies. You both agree that people are probably thinking twice about going to the hospital. Of course we take precautions adds the nurse – like masks for anyone showing symptoms. You nod in agreement while wondering how far behind you that nice Chinese couple was standing.

  20. The number of recovered corona cases worldwide: 60694.
    The made up number of recovered cases in China: 57319
    The made up number of recovered cases in Iran: 2134
    The actual number of recovered cases worldwide outside of China and Iran: 1241.

    That is right, outside of China and Iran only 1241 people recovered from Corona. Let that fucking sink in. Of course tens of thousands more will. But please don’t fucking tell me that your estimates of death rate are worth more than a fart in the wind. We simply do not know yet how deadly this thing is.

    And of course all the “nothing to worry about” idiots will ignore this post because it is more convenient to pretend to be smart and repeat whatever death rate they copied from the MSM. And these will be the same bloody cretins that then claim that MSM is telling them to panic and so they valiantly defy the MSM choose not to. Oh you retarded amoebas who failed the IQ test: the MSM is telling you NOT to panic and you are dutifully obeying the order.

    1. Dude, you should self quarantine way up north somewhere. Stock up on toilet paper.

        1. yes COLON, and you are proof of that negative IQ. I will offer to go to COSCO for you and put a tonne of toilet paper in my F-150 and deliver it for you

          1. Well Enema, you had one non stupid post already (above), clearly we cannot expect a miracle twice.

    1. Pfft. Those people were going to get killed driving anyway. It’s really just a pre-cull. Good riddance.

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