It’s Probably Nothing

As has been predicted for weeks, world markets are finally taking a hit.

Shares on Wall Street have plummeted at the opening bell and European markets are also a sea of red, with the Italian market the worst hit, amid reports of rising deaths from the coronavirus in the country.

The high price of conspiring with China: Iran becomes the new epicenter of infection.

Now 600 cases in South Korea, who the hell knows what’s going on in the North.

More: Trump’s fury over coronavirus patients being repatriated may be justified

35 Replies to “It’s Probably Nothing”

    1. One thing we should keep in mind. Periodically, the market corrects itself, typified by several days of heavy selling. It’s normal for this to happen and, often, the market simply looks for an excuse. This time, it could well be the reports of the virus.

      The TSX generally follows the same trends as the DJIA, so Toronto’s sell-off isn’t entirely surprising. However, the events of the last few days have made the market jittery. Investors welcome good news, can work around bad news, but they don’t like uncertainty.

      I learned from surviving Black Monday ’87 that the best course action is simply to hang on and don’t do anything rash or stupid.

      1. ha ha ha !!!
        boya. black monday (well THAT one) cost me 700 bucks in 1 week.
        also taught me I have NO instinct for money markets, so I have NOT had a similar loss since.
        and the good news my tax acc’t found it and applied it to my 2018 taxes (aka capital loss) and now Im among the
        billionaires who dont pay any !!!!
        wooohooooo !!!!

        1. Most of my stocks eventually recovered from Black Monday. Two of them became attractive takeover targets and I made a lot of money on those stocks after the deals were finished.

          One thing I’ve learned from my investing was that there was a lot of hurry up and wait, particularly the latter. Unless one is a day trader, investing is a lot like farming or ranching. One needs a lot of patience in this business as well as a thick hide.

          I re-invest the dividends from one of my holdings. This week is when it’s paid out and will automatically be used to buy additional shares. The lower price right now will let me get more, which leads to more dividends later on.

          1. I only invest in lead. My experience’s in the stock market haven’t been productive so I invested heavily in real estate. Now I have enough to ride out my days. And if the fan gets hit and I need some gold, well, I have lots of lead…

  1. Can we stop bringing them here now?

    If I get infected by this virus I’m going to Parliament hill and cough on every Cabinet Minister, Liberal MP, Green MP, Bloc Quebecois MP and Red Tory Conservative MP’s office door and I’m going to damn well shake as many hands as I can and then I’m going to visit the Senate chamber.

    1. Nonononononono! Cultural enrichment includes embracing their pestilences as well as submitting to their laws.

  2. A friend’s daughter works for a law firm in London. Despite the whole office getting the flu vax, everyone came down with flu. No tests performed because no one had travelled recently to China, but hey coincidentally they share the office block with Huawei! You can’t find it if you don’t look for it.

  3. No kidding about Iranian conspiracy with China.

    And it also highlights the point that while China has 1.4 Billion people within its borders … there are probably another 500M living outside the borders … with lots of travel in and out of the mainland.

    Old Bruin! Stay safe! PS … How many goals will Liverpool hang on West Ham today? I say 5

    1. Somehow the stock market downturn will be blamed on …
      Orange Man Bad.

      Thanks for the good wishes. Same to you. So far so good. But LA Chinatown has been invaded by sporadic homeless. The homeless population in LA and SF, the size of Chinese population there, the fact that many travel regularly to Hong Kong and China, and the coronavirus all conspire to form a time bomb waiting to go off. Believe me, if they start finding the virus in the LA Chinatown, we will stop going to Mass there. That would be too bad, as that is a substantial portion of our socialization.

      As to Liverpool, they finally showed a chink (pardon the expression) in the armor. They were shut out in Spain, and conceded a most unfortunate goal. (Of course the last time Liverpool returned from Spain after the first leg of an UCL knockout match, they were behind 0-3 to Barca. The rest is history.) Will they take it out on West Ham by scoring 5? I doubt it. They only scored 5 once in an EPL campaign that they have dominated. I believe they have such faith in the defense (and rightly so) that once they are up 3 nil or even 2 nil they go down to a lower gear. That’s how they conservative energy, and are always ready to play that high press offense of theirs.

      BTW, my Bruins basketball team were left for dead a month ago. On Jan 15, having lost 6 of 7, and 3 of 4 in conference, to mediocre or downright bad teams (noticeably UNC, CSFullerton, Wash St) we stood 8-9 overall and 1-3 in conference. Since then, we have won 9 of 11 all in conference to be tied for second in the PAC, with a chance of beating ASU to tie for first. The two losses were on the road against Oregon (highest P12 ranked team) and ASU (leading the P12.) Note that having to play the league leaders is now considered an opportunity, not a sure loss. After all, we just beat the league leader in our last game.
      We won the last three road games against Arizona, Utah, and Colorado by at least seven points each. Those three combined to only lose five home games besides us. That is how good we have become.

      Speaking of college basketball, did you see that Oregon-Arizona game. With two seconds left and the score tied, Arizona missed two consecutive FT (by someone with a 80% FTA) to send the game into OT. In OT, while behind with only one second left, after a stupid foul by Oregon, they missed two more FT to lose by one. Can you say choke big time? I bathed in shadenfreude. While an Oregon loss would work out better for us, I just cannot root for UofA. That was one hell of a way for Arizona to lose its share of the league lead.

      1. Thanks for catching me up on PAC-12 bb. I’ve been dealing with a tragic family occurrence, and haven’t been following it … I’ll just tune in to the NCAA tournament and get caught up 🙂 … and … since my Golden Bears may NEVER put a competitive bb team on the floor EVER again … ?? Well …

        Yeah, Liverpool haven’t been filling up the goal this season … but West Ham are in such disarray … Liv’s. gonna score even when they take the ball into the corner to kill off the clock!

        1. Sorry to hear that. My condolences.
          On your Golden Bears, just remember. You’ll always have the only head coach who got the better of John Wooden head to head.

          1. Thank you.

            Yikes!! Fornal’s goal … and its 2-1 West Ham?! Maybe I had it wrong … and West Ham will score 5 goals!! Can’t lose your first league match to … lowly West Ham!

          2. Well … I was partially correct. There were 5-goals … just not quite distributed as I predicted.

          3. West Ham has doubled the total goals conceded by Liverpool in the previous eleven EPL matches. Think about that. The difference is not having Henderson. No, really.

  4. The market is mostly sentiment driven as valuations are ridiculously inverted. The virus is the excuse it needed to trigger what was / is inevitable. If you’ve been paying attention as an active trader / investor, you would have had hedges on and or bullish positions in PMs. If it corrects more than 12 to 15%, look out!

      1. Agreed. It’s just that a correction that large changes the assumptions of the Elliott wave gurus and where the next levels of resistance will be found could be significantly lower depending on the wave. I don’t pretend to “know” the answer, but take my chances considering some that have a respectable record.

        1. I’ve long stopped paying attention to those people. Instead, I look at the company’s financial statements. I look for things like assets and liabilities, its price/earnings ratio, and, more importantly, its debt level. If I don’t like what my analysis turns up, I avoid that stock like the plague.

          A company that has a decent balance sheet is likely to withstand a market downturn and could also go on to actually continue making money.

  5. oooooooh my.
    a whole HEAP of karma all at once.
    not to mention the heaps of burning bodies.
    all part of the karma.
    (psst, she one NASTY and ruthlessly BRUTAL task master. glad she on MY side)

  6. Welcome to reality. Welcome to the demise. Open borders, unfettered travel, and minimal restrictions on trade of goods. How is that diversity working for you now?

    1. Yeah sure. China will be hollowed out inside from the virus but now ready for conquest outside their borders. Sure.
      Do you know why India has nuclear weapons? Because of fear of China.
      Did you know that India and China share one of the longest borders in the world?

  7. Markets panicking over nothing. Now is a good time to buy buy buy.

    Disease is already fizzling out with recoveries exceeding new cases.

    If it is even still around by summer, a vaccine will already be available. It has already been developed and is in stage 1 trials on people.

    But oh no, its all you chicken littles convinced the world is coming to an end isn’t it.

    You people are stupid. And funny.

    1. ” It has already been developed and is in stage 1 trials on people.”

      So you say. Why bother with trials? They already have a vaccine. Uh huh.

    2. “…with recoveries exceeding new cases…”

      Nope, not true. You just made that one up. The rest of your post is the same usual bullshit you spew with every update on the topic. Meanwhile back in the real world, South Korea will probably reach a 1000 discovered cases by tonight, tomorrow at the latest. Italy is already above 200 and the numbers are climbing every hour.

      As for turd world. wait till numbers from India, Africa, Caribbean and Latin America start pilling up.

    3. And we’re above 80K now and the officially cooked death to recovery ratios remains around 1 to 10. Nothing to worry about indeed.

  8. Have we not over-delayed the downing of all incoming planes?
    This is the only question which is important.

  9. People like so what (and probably UnMedicated) just don’t seem to care that yet another bug is out there that can kill loved ones,friends and co-workers.
    I guess when all you have is enemies…

  10. “who the hell knows what’s going on in the North.”

    Funny enough, just today “North Korea quarantines 380 foreigners to prevent outbreak” Also cancelled the prestigious Pyongyang Marathon. Foreigners will be subject to mandatory “30 Day quarantine” before being allowed to enter North Korea.

    Can’t say much for the country, but I kinda like that they’re aren’t screwing around.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/north-korea-reportedly-quarantines-380-foreigners-in-bid-to-prevent-coronavirus-outbreak/ar-BB10jFC7

  11. Now that trading’s done for the day, the TSX is down by 280.79 points, while the Dow dropped 1031.61. We had a decent run in the past few weeks, so we were due to a large sell-off. The virus might just have provided the reason for it.

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