I was intrigued to see this article in Time magazine about two prominent sheriffs in Arizona: Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Pima County Sheriff Clarence Dupnik.
As Time has long been a de facto PR mouthpiece for the Democrat Party, I understood from the start that the article would be biased against [Republican] Arpaio and for [Democrat] Dupnik. But the notion of comparing two nearby sheriffs with widely differing political views got me wondering how the crime statistics in their two counties compared. After a little research and some compilation the difference in their crime stats is rather startling:
Please click on the image above to see it full-size or you can download the original spreadsheet. In the Time piece, there’s not a word of Arpaio’s success and Dupnik’s relative failure to combat crime but as we’ve seen in the disgraceful, unprofessional “reporting” of the Tucson massacre, the mainstream media has clearly shown that they have no interest in facts that don’t support how they wish to spin a news story.
Thanks for that Robert!
With liberalism, it isn’t results that count, only the good intentions. Sheriff Arapio has Metro Phoenix for the most part, a bigger and potentially more crime ridden county….yet his numbers are better. Curious ….
Well done, sir.
While I agree at first glance that this looks damning to Dupnik, it does not represent the whole story.
One should look at the relative crime rates BEFORE either of these guys were elected, the change in rates during their term, and look at any concurrent big picture changes (i.e. demographics, economy, etc) that may be happening. In other words, the data should be normalised (as much as possible) to try to ensure that you are comparing apples to apples.
This would provide a much clearer and irrefutable picture.
Personally, I doubt the outcome would look much different though!
The sad hidden truth behind the Liberal agenda!
It is the same everywhere, and then they want to disarm the public as they let more criminals go on soft sentences, and insist on bringing in more Third World drugs, murders and rapists with open borders.
The left should be prosecuted for crimes against humanity from all sides of the fence, from the third world they keep as impoverished welfare mules and again by the first world.
The crimes against all societies by the mental disorders of liberalism is beyond simple reproach.
Arpaio comes across as a professional whose main concern is protecting the public; Dupnik comes across as a blowhard whose main concern is politics.
Frenchie, given that Arpaio has been sheriff for 19 years and Dupnik 31 years, a before and after is not really going to be relevent.
Joe tosses the criminals into pink prison uniforms and feeds them baloney sandwiches. Guessing that Clarence has a different approach.
They talk about the “broken window” system in New York as a means of dealing with the little things so they don’t escalate. Clearly, Tucson has chosen not to deal with little things and prefers to allow them to fester.
As an aside, drive around Phoenix then drive around Tucson. Phoenix looks new and Tucson looks shabby. Clearly, Tucson has a “whatever” attitude.
There’s more background to this here.
Who needs solid numbers when you’re the newspaper of record (New York Times)?
http://www.anncoulter.com/
“‘One day (Loughner) started making comments about terrorism and laughing about killing the baby,’ classmate Don Coorough told ABC News, referring to a discussion about abortions. ‘The rest of us were looking at him in shock … I thought this young man was troubled.’
“Another classmate, Lydian Ali, recalled the incident as well.
“‘A girl had written a poem about an abortion. It was very emotional and she was teary eyed and he said something about strapping a bomb to the fetus and making a baby bomber,’ Ali said.”
Here’s the Times’ version: “After another student read a poem about getting an abortion, Mr. Loughner compared the young woman to a ‘terrorist for killing the baby.'”
Well done, Robert. Thanks.
WalterF, thanks for that too. Of course, to fit its all left-wing, all the time narrative, the Times spun the story to make Loughner look like an “insensitive pro-lifer”, which was patently false: spin’s the MSM’s only goal. The truth? Fergedaboutit!
(I should have used the term insensitive “anti-abortion” person. The Times would NEVER use the term “pro-life”.)
Go Sheriff Joe! I guess making convicts wear pink underware is a great crime deterrent.
Wow.
Well done! The numbers tell us who is the real lawman and who is feathering his own nest for a hopeful trip up the political ladder.
Mr. Dupnik is doing great–as a hardline politician–but if he wants to move and groove in the looks-concious Democratic party he might consider Rogaine…and a complete change of personality.
Of course the comparison does not take into account the feelings and self esteem of the criminals following arrest. If it was the RCMP they would apologize to the criminals for arresting them or calling them criminals. For liberals it’s never the criminals fault. With apologies to Flip Wilson “Society made me do it”
Adds Gutierrez, “Any cop in this state, from the attorney general to the U.S. marshals to the FBI and young sheriffs, will tell you the sheriff they admire most is Dupnik.”
Who can read this shit, was I this stupid when I used to read TIME, are TIME readers NOT offended by this obvious boosterism bullshit dressed up as journalism?
It’s almost unbelievable, that this kind of thing is published for people who have a choice of paying for it or not.
Who buys TIME magazine?
Pima’s population is more than twice as much as Maricopa. Wouldn’t that explain the rise in crime?
thanks for the good work Robert W
I guess reporting is like educating your children. If you leave it to the ‘professionals’…need I go on?
richfisher, perhaps the comment TIME was referring to was something like:
“I admire the way Dupnik blows smoke up the backsides of the people of Pima county and continues to get elected.”
Damn good job Robert, I am headed out to the FB page ‘Clarence Dupnik is my Hero’ and see if I stir up a stink with a bunch of jack-wagon liberals.
,
WOW, just wow! Very impressive!
Terri Jones at 10:29, look at the RATE of crime (the per capita number) which is the great equalizer in statistics. It’s not a perfect comparison, but when your RATE of crime is 637% higher than the other guy (such as property crime), then you know you there’s a major issue.
Terri Jones @ 10:29 AM said:
“Pima’s population is more than twice as much as Maricopa. Wouldn’t that explain the rise in crime?”
Maricopa = 4,023,132
Pima = 1,020,200
There are new treatments for dyslexia
Uhh, according to the graph Maricopa county has 4 times the population of Pima county. Is the graph right or Terri?
Moral; stolen from Orielly’s show; Don’t be a Dubnik. Pass that around, should become as common as dolt or doofus just to show the angry faced lefties all speech on the right is not incendiary.
Terri Jones: Maricopa county’s population is FOUR TIMES that of Pima county. Yet in at least one category, Pima’s crime rate is almost EIGHT TIMES that in Maricopa. What report were YOU reading???
Hey Robert, no fair. We don’t need no stinking giant facts! I assume this ‘data’ is for 2010?
Now one right wing crazy tea person has gone an killed six people, which is 1/3 of all the murders in Pima County last year. How is poor Dubnick going to handle that?
Well, Holder’s got the Feds doing all the investigation and prosecution for him. I hear there are 200 FBI agents on the ground in Tucson. The whole Criminal Minds and NCIS teams are there with their nice airplanes and computer whizzies. This must be saving a ton of money for the county budget! And since Agent Gibbs is solving the crime for him, this leaves Sheriff Dubnick free to express his personal appreciation to Palin and Limbaugh for their support.
There is nothing Obama can’t do!
/sarc
Looks like the statistics say that the odds were a tragedy like what occurred was inevitable in Pima county.
No wonder Dupnik came out of the gate looking to deflect attention.
Robert, well done.
Your post goes to the heart of one of the dirtiest tricks that the liberal media have used for decades, and that is *selective* reporting of the truth in order to push a certain agenda. I think it has just become second nature to them. Even so-called “high-quality” media organizations like the BBC do it all the time.
The trick works so well because so few people question anything they read or hear (the problem starts with our educational system), especially if they are a Democrat and the source is a (terrible) magazine like Time.
I grew up in Africa, and I’ve had my fill of selective reporting regarding that continent and the creeps that inhabit it like Mugabe.
One of the best examples of where selective reporting is being used today is South Africa. Reading what the mainstream media has to say you would make you think everything was rosy and sweet. Talk to the people on the ground, and you get the true picture.
The difference between selective reporting of key facts and outright lying is almost academic. They are the same thing in the end.
How any conservative can be a fan of Arpaio stuns me. He’s cost Maricopa taxpayers something like $40-$50mm dollars by, among other things: his deputies breaking a parapalegic’s neck, his deputies killing a mentally handicapped man by crushing his larynx and then stealing it from evidence, his deputies asphyxiating a mentally retarded man to the point he became brain dead, arresting citizens for clapping at a city council meeting, arresting reporters, forcing a woman to give birth while shackled, beating/shocking a restrained prisoner until he died, filing bogus indictments against politicial opponents. Then there was the guy who “fell out of his bed” and broke his neck, his toes, ruptured his intestines and needed a halo to straighten his back. He died, too.
This is the kind of government official we like now? Wow.
Ummm… slaw… got any links to references. Would interest me to read more about these incidents. Thanks
I’d like some links too, slaw.
Not just the accusations, the links need to prove that Arpaio lost the lawsuits and was personally responsible for the problems.
It should be noted here that some Lefties in Mariposa county tried to get signatures for a recall of Arpaio and couldn’t get enough out of a population of 4+ million citizens.
Arpaio enjoys a great deal of popularity in his county.
Uh…Terri Jones….the crime rate is “PER CAPITA”.
Oh….and slaw…..the other jurisdictions have similar issues. And in virtually every “case” you mention, there is much more to the situation.
By the way, I don’t recall Arpaio running tanks into buildings and killing these people in Waco. I guess that is the kind of government official that YOU like. I’ll take Arpaio ANY DAY.
1. Katherine Andrade, 24, American
2. Chanel Andrade, 1, American
3. Jennifer Andrade, 19, American
4. George Bennett, 35, British
5. Susan Benta, 31, British
6. Mary Jean Borst, 49, American
7. Pablo Cohen, 38, Israeli
8. Abedowalo Davies, 30, British
9. Shari Doyle, 18, American
10. Beverly Elliot, 30, British
11. Yvette Fagan, 32, British
12. Doris Fagan, 51, British
13. Lisa Marie Farris, 24, American
14. Raymond Friesen, 76, Canadian
15. Sandra Hardial, 27, British
16. Zilla Henry, 55, British
17. Vanessa Henry, 19, British
18. Phillip Henry, 22, British
19. Paulina Henry, 24, British
20. Stephen Henry, 26, British
21. Diana Henry, 28, British
22. Novellette Hipsman, 36, Canadian
23. Floyd Houtman, 61, American
24. Sherri Jewell, 43, American
25. David M. Jones, 38, American
26. David Koresh, 33, American
27. Rachel Koresh, 24, American
28. Cyrus Koresh, 8, American
29. Star Koresh, 6, American
30. Bobbie Lane Koresh, 2, American
31. Jeffery Little, 32, American
32. Nicole Gent Little, 24, Australian, pregnant
33. Dayland Gent, 3, American
34. Page Gent, 1, American
35. Livingston Malcolm, 26, British
36. Diane Martin, 41, British
37. Wayne Martin, Sr., 42, American
38. Lisa Martin, 13, American
39. Sheila Martin, Jr., 15, American
40. Anita Martin, 18, American
41. Wayne Martin, Jr., 20, American
42. Julliete Martinez, 30, American
43. Crystal Martinez, 3, American
44. Isaiah Martinez, 4, American
45. Joseph Martinez, 8, American
46. Abigail Martinez, 11, American
47. Audrey Martinez, 13, American
48. John-Mark McBean, 27, British
49. Bernadette Monbelly, 31, British
50. Rosemary Morrison, 29, British
51. Melissa Morrison, 6, British
52. Sonia Murray, 29, American
53. Theresa Nobrega, 48, British
54. James Riddle, 32, American
55. Rebecca Saipaia, 24, Filipino
56. Steve Schneider, 43, American
57. Judy Schneider, 41, American
58. Mayanah Schneider, 2, American
59. Clifford Sellors, 33, British
60. Scott Kojiro Sonobe, 35, American
61. Floracita Sonobe, 34, Filipino
62. Gregory Summers, 28, American
63. Aisha Gyrfas Summers, 17, Australian, pregnant
64. Startle Summers, 1, American
65. Lorraine Sylvia, 40, American
66. Rachel Sylvia, 12, American
67. Hollywood Sylvia, 1, American
68. Michelle Jones Thibodeau, 18, American
69. Serenity Jones, 4, American
70. Chica Jones, 2, American
71. Little One Jones, 2, American
72. Neal Vaega, 38, New Zealander
73. Margarida Vaega, 47, New Zealander
74. Mark H. Wendell, 40, American
We are witnessing the death of professional journalism, instead of the media reporting the FACTS the unwashed masses must hunt for the truth. I honestly believe if the police had done their job he could of been stopped, his record of issuing death threats needs to be investigated by the media but it won’t.
Robert: “…Arpaio’s success and Dupnik’s relative failure to combat crime…”
Not so.
In your graph, you cite the populations of the entire county, which include those living in cities like Phoenix, Tempe, Scottsdale, Glendale, Tucson, etc., all of whom have their own police departments. In fact, like many other sheriff’s offices, the Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office (MCSO) has primary jurisdiction in non-incorporated cities and non-city areas. Its estimated actual service population was only about 328,000 in 2009. Ditto for the PCSO, which has a service population of about 366,000 (see azdps.gov/About/Reports/docs/Crime_In_Arizona_Report_2009.pdf, p. 112-113). Plug in those population numbers, and you get a somewhat different picture — property crimes are still higher in PCSO jurisdictions, but murders, manslaughters, and aggravated assaults per capita are actually much lower in Pima County than Maricopa County.
Another perspective — since 2002:
– total violent crime in the areas of Maricopa county under the Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office’s jurisdiction = +58%
– total violent crime in the areas of Pima county under the Pima County Sheriff’s Office’s jurisdiction = -15%
Seems Sheriff Arpaio isn’t as successful at combatting crime as you (and FoxNews) might like to believe.
But hey, don’t believe me — look up the (correct) numbers yourselves: azdps.gov/About/Reports/Crime_In_Arizona/
“Go Sheriff Joe! I guess making convicts wear pink underware is a great crime deterrent.”
And you attribute the difference in crime rates to WHAT———-?
‘Davenport’, I did take a look at the link you provided. The numbers there are much less organized than those provided by the FBI.
I partially accept your point that the County Sheriffs aren’t responsible for the urban areas (Phoenix & Tucson respectfully) but in making the statement you did you’re implying that criminals in a city will not ever set foot in the rural areas next door and commit crimes there. That’s just silly. Here in Vancouver where I live, there are frequent reports of arrested thieves who live in the neighbouring community of Surrey but do most of their criminal activities in mine.
In the end equation, I obtained the numbers from legitimate sources, stated what those sources were, did the math to get the per capita crime rates, and published them. You clearly don’t accept these numbers because of your political bias. C’est la vie.
P.S. Folks, Terri Jones is a Facebook friend of mine and a regular caller to Dennis Miller’s show. When I asked her about her comments she admitted that she misread 4 Million as 400,000. She wanted to go back to remove her comment but clearly that can’t be done here on SDA. She’s an extremely nice lady and would be an excellent commenter here if she decides to come back in the future.
There was a man’s larynx in the evidence room???
Davenport
Firstly, the crime numbers numbers (p. 112) you seems to question are the same numbers which were shown in the table given by Robert.
Secondly, parts of cities of Phoenix and other incorporated cities had contracted to Maricopa County Sheriff Office
According to Wikipedia . It is the largest sheriff’s office in Arizona and provides general-service and specialized law enforcement to unincorporated areas of Maricopa County, serving as the primary law enforcement for unincorporated areas of the county as well as incorporated cities within the county who have contracted with the agency for law-enforcement services (known as “contract cities”). It also operates the county jail system.
I checked out Terri Jones’ site and she does seem to be a very nice wholesome lady who has a warm blog mostly about observing the little things in life that make one happy to be alive and other People/things she likes.(JMO)
I’d like to see her come back.
Robert W. (Vancouver): “The numbers there are much less organized than those provided by the FBI…In the end equation, I obtained the numbers from legitimate sources, stated what those sources were, did the math to get the per capita crime rates, and published them. You clearly don’t accept these numbers because of your political bias. C’est la vie.”
Actually, those numbers from the Crime in Arizona reports are the official crime stats submitted by Arizona law enforcement agencies (including the MCSO & PCSO) and compiled by the AZ Department of Public Safety, and are what are submitted to the FBI UCR program. The crime numbers themselves match exactly what you cited in your spreadsheet. Double-check for yourself, if you like.
Sure, your sources are legitimate, you stated them, and you did the math — good on ya. But it’s your choice of source for the population numbers that’s flawed, which affects your subsequent math. So deal with that.
“I partially accept your point that the County Sheriffs aren’t responsible for the urban areas (Phoenix & Tucson respectfully) but in making the statement you did you’re implying that criminals in a city will not ever set foot in the rural areas next door and commit crimes there.”
Actually, I didn’t (at least not intentionally), and anyway, that’s neither here nor there. Because really, who cares where Maricopa County criminals live? If Sheriff Arpaio has supposedly implemented a successful crime prevention program in his areas of jurisdiction, then crime in those areas should be down, regardless of whether the discouraged criminals are locals or big city residents). And if a lot of violent crimes are being committed in those MCSO areas, then that says something about the MCSO’s ability to prevent/stop them, again regardless of where the offenders go home at night.
The bottome line is, if you’re going to assess an organization’s performance against its service population, then you need to pick the right service population. That’s not political bias; that’s mathematical logic.
It’s not like I’m making up these numbers, or ignoring yours. I’m just saying that your population numbers are wrong. The Crime in Arizona reports even give you the correct estimated populations, as submitted by the law enforcement agencies themselves. They are literally there for your taking. If you choose not to, what does that say about your political bias?
ella: “Davenport, Firstly, the crime numbers numbers (p. 112) you seems to question are the same numbers which were shown in the table given by Robert.”
Yeah, I got that. I’m not taking issue with the crime numbers. I’m taking issue with Robert’s choice of denominator (i.e., his choice of the MCSO’s and PCSO’s service populations) in his “per capita” calculation. He went with the entire county’s population. This is flawed, as a big chunk of those respective populations live in areas that are served by other law enforcement agencies.
If he’s going to cite the MCSO’s crime stats in the numerator, then he should have cited the MCSO’s service population in the denominator. Or, if he’s going to cite the entire Maricopa County population in the denominator, then he should have cited the entire county’s crime stats (and not just the MCSO’s) in the numerator. Any other combination (including what he ended up going with in his original post) is mathematically and logically unsound.
“Secondly, parts of cities of Phoenix and other incorporated cities had contracted to Maricopa County Sheriff Office.”
Yeah, I got that too. I’m glad to see you went to the original source I linked to. Check out page 113. It actually provides the estimated population size served by both the MCSO (n = 328,437) and the PCSO (n = 365,950).
Those are what Robert should have used as his denominators. Needless to say, they paint a different picture of crime in AZ than what he wants to believe.
Robert: “You clearly don’t accept these numbers because of your political bias. C’est la vie.”
Speaking of numbers, any comment on the opposite trends in violent crime since 2002, as reported by the MCSO & PCSO?
Davenport:
http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr
This is the FBI Uniform Crime Report portal. A little work on your part will bear out the work done by Robert in this post.
Or you could continue to try and misdirect the conversation.
Also, you should check out the relative size of Phoenix and Tucson on google maps. For people who haven’t been to Arizona, the difference between the two cities is best seen in a picture.
The Liberal talkers have been out dancing on the graves of those killed in Tucson while feverishly trying to construct a non existant link between the shooter an Palin, Beck, Limbaugh or Hannity from the moment the first shot was fired. So much for the moral highground Liberals claim. Corpses and their grieving families are tools for their kind to exploit. Stupid b@st@rds.
The Phantom: “This is the FBI Uniform Crime Report portal. A little work on your part will bear out the work done by Robert in this post.”
Sigh. Yes, I’m aware. Are you aware that the FBI UCR is merely the centralized clearinghouse of crime data that are submitted by 17,000+ local law enforcement agencies around the country (including, say, the MCSO and the PCSO)? See here: fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/word
Now, this is the Arizona UCR program portal: azdps.gov/About/Reports/Crime_In_Arizona. Here is what the 2009 report states on p.7:
Historical Background
The [FBI] Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program provides a nationwide view of crime based on the voluntary submission of statistics by city, county, and state law enforcement agencies. This program was initiated in 1930 by the Committee on Uniform Crime Records of the International Association of Chiefs of Police (IACP). That same year, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) was authorized by the United States Congress to serve as the national clearinghouse for statistical information on crime…The Arizona Uniform Crime Reporting program first began receiving voluntary crime statistics from local law enforcement agencies in January 1975. Prior to this date, agencies submitted their crime data directly to the Federal Bureau of Investigation. The Arizona Department of Public Safety is responsible for administrating the UCR program for the state and providing necessary assistance and training to the contributing law enforcement agencies.
Let’s digest that for a minute. Do you understand what that means? That the AZ UCR Program is what feeds into the FBI UCR program? That when Robert cites AZ data from the FBI UCR, what he’s doing in effect is citing AZ UCR data?
Good, you’re half-way to enlightenment.
Now turn to page 112 of the 2009 report, and look for the Maricopa County SO row. Now, using your finger — and this is a bit tricky, so we’ll do it nice and slow — follow that row across to page 113, right to the end, to the “estimated population” column.
You still with me?
Good. That number there — 328,437 — is what the MCSO itself offered up as its service population. It’s also what Robert should have used as his estimated population for the MCSO areas of jurisdiction, not 4,023,132. 4M vs. 328K — kinda makes a difference when calculating per capita rates.
Now, do you think you can do the same thing, only with the Pima County SO, all on your own?
Very good! Et voila, a little work on your part has borne out the work done by myself in this post!
Davenport again.
Watch everyone run in circles around the non argument misdirection’s for the 1000th time on yet another thread.
I don’t even bother reading Davenports drivel anymore. If simply you scroll past the lengthy rant’s you can see the key words & phrases drifting by. Take the first few words of any “Davenport” paragraph and you draw a picture of who you are trying to rationalize with –
Davenport starts last rant with –
“Sigh. Yes, I’m aware…”
“Historical Background…”
“Let’s digest that for a minute….”
“Good, you’re half-way to enlightenment…..”
“Now turn to page……”
“You still with me?……”
“Good…….”
“Now, do you think…….”
“Very good!……”
Why waste your time with this?
Davenport –
One thing we know about Dupnik – he didn’t get Jared Loughner off the streets. Reports in the news say Sheriff Dupnik refuses to release any records about his office’s contacts with Loughner.
You might want to check out Megyn Kelly’s interview of Dupnik, in which this sworn law enforcement official admitted he had NO evidence supporting his wild accusations against Rush Limbaugh, and other voices opposing his Democratic party. Wonder what his motive was in making those accusations , if they weren’t evidence-based? Hmm? Is he just your tired, old, Democrat party hack who has no regard for the truth?
You can’t seriously be supporting Dupnik, – you’re just doing this because Dupnik is one of yours, right? Shame on you.
Yeah Davenport. I’ve been working on this longer than you’ve been an adult, most likely.
In other places than the one you posted, other people have noticed that Tucson/Pima’s crime rates per 100,000 are generally higher than Phoenix/Maricopa’s, despite Phoenix being wildly larger.
Have been for a while, too.