Why aren’t lithium prices soaring? Pipeline Online columnist and U of R professor Jim Warren wonders.
(On this note, there were several recent developments in the lithium and helium space in Saskatchewan in recent weeks. Watch for upcoming stories.)
And drilling is just starting to get going in the new year, with Just eight rigs drilling in Saskatchewan on Jan. 2
Saskatchewan’s Year in Energy: Premier Scott Moe, 2023: Full Interview
If you didn’t have a chance to see this interview posted in four pieces before, here is the full year-end interview between Premier Scott Moe and Pipeline Online editor and owner Brian Zinchuk
Also, Premier Scott Moe’s social media folks posted the Pipeline Online story about the carbon tax on Saturday:
Saskatchewan families can say so long to paying the carbon tax on home heating beginning on Monday!https://t.co/y2ZC7fLaSN
— Scott Moe (@PremierScottMoe) December 30, 2023
That bill there is directly from my father’s Jan. 2023 bill, when the carbon tax was still $50 per tonne. In April, it’ll be $80 a tonne. Without getting into too much detail, the shop that was connect to his natural gas is no longer. Thank God.
It was rather entertaining to read some of the comments, like suggesting my 80-year-old father should pay for upgrading the heating on his home (with only his meager CPP and OAS). Because every 80 year old will see a return in 10 years on such an investment. Certainly.
Another suggested he must be in a high income bracket – nothing could be further from the truth. Or that Trudeau’s climate action cheques must be enough to compensate.
True believers, those.
Anyhow, happy new year, everyone! And if you live in Saskatchewan and have SaskEnergy or SaskPower for home heating, happy no more carbon tax, on that, at least, year!
Saskatchewan’s Year in Energy: Premier Scott Moe, 2023: Part 4: Lithium, Helium, Conclusion
In the last year, two lithium companies are working on pilot projects for lithium commercialization. North American Helium increased its number of helium processing facilities from three to seven. Royal Helium, having just completed its first helium processing site in Alberta, may develop its Climax, Saskatchewan properties next.
There are some days I think I’m kinda smart. But you get into a room, virtual or otherwise, with an Adam Waterman or a few others, and you realize how dumb you really are. Here’s what I mean.
Patchwork Podcast: Year-end roundup with Adam Waterman, Brian Zinchuk, Tracy Klotz and Kurt Price
If you don’t regularly watch Peter Zeihan, you should. He posted this on Christmas Day.
Weekend Watch: Why Venezuela is Preparing to Conquer Guyana
This video from YouTube channel RealLifeLore is the best explanation yet for why Venezuela is preparing to Conquer Guyana.
What’s really interesting are the North Dakota and Alberta/Canadian connections. As Venezuelan heavy crude production soared, US Gulf Coast refineries tooled up to handle it. But as their government essentially destroyed their economy, combined with US sanctions, the Canadian oilsands, and maybe, too, the Lloydminster region, benefitted by replacing that oil with our own..
Five years ago today, 427 trucks rolled through Estevan, protesting Trudeau’s energy policies
Five years ago on Dec. 22, 427 semis, service rigs, bed trucks, crew trucks, pickups and everything in between showed up on a spur-of-the-moment to protest the energy policies of the Canadian federal Liberal government. It took less than 48 hours, from the time the decision was made to go ahead with a truck convoy protest in Estevan, until the first truck rolled out of Bert Baxter Transport’s yard.
It wasn’t that long ago, Crescent Point was pouring nearly all its capital budget into Saskatchewan, often employing over 20 drilling rigs in this province alone, and one in Alberta. My, how times have changed.
Its revised five year plan doesn’t even mention Saskatchewan by name.
The company has historically shown a pattern before it sells off an asset. It stops all drilling in that area months before a sale is announced. When I took Saskatchewan’s Minister of Energy for a tour west of Estevan, there wasn’t one rig drilling west of Estevan all the way to the Shaunavon area. When the photo above was taken in February, 2018, the company was running about 10 rigs in one township alone west of Estevan.
This is a key reason why I asked some hard questions of Premier Scott Moe about the lack of drilling activity in Part 2 of my year end interview with him (posted yesterday)
EDIT: Noting the lack of comments, let me provide some context: An enormous portion of Saskatchewan’s prosperity over the last 15 years, including its transition from a have-not to a have province, could be contributed to Crescent Point’s actions from 2007-2020. In 2008, they spent about a billion on land sales alone, then many, many more billions in the subsequent years developing that land through intense drilling efforts. For a while around 2012-ish they were Saskatchewan’s largest oil producer. Through a series of something like 30 mergers and acquisitions, the company built up a huge land base in this province, principally in southeast Saskatchewan. For several years, they were the top drilling oil producer in all of Canada, often employing more rigs than No. 2 and 3 combined. And usually all but one of those rigs were working in this province.
Now that is dramatically diminished. They’re milking Saskatchewan but spending substantially less here. I won’t say minimal, but it is a huge, huge, difference. So when they’ve found a new lover, as it were, in Alberta’s Duvernay and Montney plays, that might be good for them, but not so much for us left out here in the frozen barren wasteland of southeast Saskatchewan.
Get it now?
The old bumper sticker used to say something like, “Lord, please grant me another oil boom, and I promise not to piss it away this time.”
The "one more oil boom" bumper sticker is back. #Alberta pic.twitter.com/PgAcALrAgr
— Justin Giovannetti (@justinCgio) September 20, 2016
Well, oil prices were up in 2023, but oil drilling in Saskatchewan certainly didn’t reflect that. So Pipeline Online asked Premier Scott Moe what Saskatchewan is going to do about it.
Saskatchewan’s Year in Energy: Premier Scott Moe, 2023: Part 2 Oil Drilling, or Lack Thereof
Across the border to the west, The last coal-fired power station in Alberta will soon be out of coal. A few weeks ago, a notice posted to the the Alberta Electric System Operator website provided an update on its conversion to natural gas.
The end of coal-fired power in Alberta is nigh
Also, from Canadian Press:
Regulator denied Trans Mountain variance request due to pipeline safety concerns
And this one is a doozy. This is the Liberal government trying to cement into place carbon pricing so that even if the government changes, nothing can be done about it.
Feds sign first carbon contract for difference with Calgary-based Entropy
Energy, and the “energy transition” being forced upon Canadians by the federal government, is becoming the dominant story, affecting all our lives and everything we do. In his year-end interview with Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, Pipeline Online dives deep into the biggest energy issues of the past year.
This is Part 1: Fighting the Feds.
Part 2 will focus on addressing low oil drilling activity, despite decent oil prices.
Part 3 discusses the Clean Electricity Regulations and their impact, and widespread adoption of nuclear power.
Part 4 talks about lithium and helium development, and ends with Christmas greetings.
Red Sea is now largely closed to traffic. That’s 8.8 million bpd of daily oil transit, and nearly 380 million tons of daily cargo transit. Global traffic now will be rerouted around Cape of Good Hope, adding 40% to voyage distance (and even more to cost)
BP, Evergreen, Euronav Halt Sailings Through Chaotic Red Sea As Insurers Demand ‘War Risk Coverage’
Suez update: 46 container ships now have diverted around the Cape of Good Hope rather than transiting the Red Sea.
John Konrad is a “former drillship captain, author of Fire On The Horizon“.
I’m a merchant ship Captain who runs a large news company for commercial shipping.
Five years ago I had zero interest in Naval or military affairs but this guy @mercoglianos just kept calling me telling me shipping is in BIG trouble if the US Navy keeps ignoring the concerns of the security shipping industry.
I’ll be completely honest, I ignored him for years. We had the strongest Navy on earth, and nobody was close. How could this be that big of a concern?
I wasn’t completely oblivious. I’ve listened to @cdrsalamander’s podcast every week for over a decade. He gave similar warnings.
I even wrote early articles about China’s islands building campaigns and the US Merchant Marines’s aging sealift fleet. But those were mostly isolated concerns.
But Sal did not stop calling. Slowly I started putting in a heavy amount of work into naval and military research… and unfortunately I found that Sal was .
Something to keep an eye on.
Enbridge sells Alliance Pipeline, Aux Sable to Pembina Pipeline
This is part of a continuing trend of Enbridge selling assets to enhance its American expansion.
I worked on almost every dirt-moving crew on the construction of the Alliance Pipeline, from 35 C below to 30 C above. I started on road bores, special projects, ditch, tie-ins, did a bit of backfill and eventually final cleanup. I started work three weeks after my wedding, and out of the 12 guys on my road bore crew bus, I was the only one married once.
Like or hate it, believe it’s a passing fad or the wave of the future. #ESG came out of nowhere about four years ago and now is at the forefront of concern for almost every larger business in the energy sector, and beyond. This Op-Ed by Deidra Garyk studies the Impact of ESG on the Energy Sector, Part 1. Watch for Part 2 tomorrow.
And along those lines, the Coastal GasLink project was an ESG nightmare, with protests across the country. This Canadian Press story says Police violated protesters’ rights in Wet’suwet’en pipeline blockades, Amnesty says
Also, oil prices are plummeting. This is not good, here, there or, apparently, in New Mexico
No. 2 oil-producing US state braces for possible end to income bonanza in New Mexico
Feds “focused on targeting the shutdown of a complete industry, regardless of whether they’re going to meet their emissions targets or not,” says Saskatchewan Premier Moe in Dubai
Pipeline Online speaks with Premier Scott Moe at conclusion of Dubai COP28 trip. (Another reporter asked questions, too, like do you believe the planet is warming…?
Federal and Nova Scotia governments kill offshore petroleum project in name of “clean energy”. No more gas development. Don’t even try. But wind? You betcha.
And here’s an analysis of why. It has a lot to do with the fact Nova Scotia can still pay for its hospitals with natural gas money, just natural gas produced in Alberta and Saskatchewan. And it has more to do with Guilbeault announcing a defacto production cap by banning venting and flaring.
And along the topic of the undead, the federal regulator still isn’t done with stretching out the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline. What’s another $200 million per month delay?
As a side note, two years ago I ran into the consultant whose job it was to shut down, abandon and clean up this project. He was the company man looking after the drilling of the first lithium well in Canada, near Torquay, Saskatchewan. I never got around to writing a story about it, dammit. Not enough hours in the day.
And if anyone feels like asking CJME/CKOM why Zinchuk isn’t scheduled to do his regular energy spot the first Wednesday of the month, as he did with Gormley:
Text
Cutting methane is one of the most cost-effective & impactful actions to tackle the climate crisis.
We announced strengthened methane regulations from the oil & gas sector to reach 75% less methane emissions by 2030, aligned with the U.S.https://t.co/FRw7N8oD9u#COP28 pic.twitter.com/5Zw7dyHsHz
— Steven Guilbeault (@s_guilbeault) December 4, 2023
Guilbeault’s latest application of a knee to the neck of the oil and gas industry in Canada:
Canada proposes new methane emissions rules for oil-and-gas sector
To which Saskatchewan responds:
‘A production cap by default’: Sask gov’t reacts to Guilbeault’s proposed methane regulations.
Ever hear about the Output Based Pricing? It’s basically a third form of carbon tax. Well, we’re going to use its proceeds to build reactors.
Saskatchewan to use Output Based Pricing to fund small modular reactor
In related news, in case you missed it Sunday night because I messed up my scheduling, a great column on Saskatchewan telling the feds to FU on the carbon tax on home heating:
Anas Alhajji: As COP28 is being held in Dubai with the oil industry participating in such events for the first time, the oil industry wasted no time making its case. We decided to repost this article for everyone to read.
EOA’S MAIN TAKEAWAYS
1. Data indicates that future demand for oil and gas is UNDERESTIMATED, while demand destruction is HYPED.
2. Global energy demand is increasing, making decarbonization more difficult to achieve, and the process of replacing fossil fuels slower.
3. Despite massive spending on renewables in the last two decades, fossil fuels remain the dominant source of energy in the world, even in Europe.
4. Coal remains the dominant source of electricity in India and China.
5. Oil is rarely used in power generation in the OECD, China, and India. Doubling or tripling solar and wind energy sources will have a very limited impact on oil demand. However, the failure of renewable energy, and consequent power shortages, will have a significant impact on oil demand.
6. As LNG prices reached a record high in 2022, oil use in power generation increased. The level of substitution among various energy sources last year was unprecedented.
Lithium in SK, Part 23: November Crown land sale shows expanding positions
Interestingly, the heart of some of the action is precisely where the heart of the Saskatchewan Bakken boom action took place.
Remember, this entire lithium adventure is being done with oilfield service companies and workers.
I’ve been on the road, so there’s a whole lot to get caught up on:
Clean Electricity Regulations:
Saskatchewan and Alberta are tag-teaming the fight with Ottawa on the Clean Electricity Regulations. First, Alberta says on Monday it will use its Sovereignty Act (and Guilbeault has something to say about that). Then Saskatchewan names its tribunal panelists to look into the Clean Electricity Regulations and the harm they will do to the province. One of the panelists is Ken From, former CEO of SaskEnergy and occasional columnist for Pipeline Online. Another is former NDP finance minister and deficit-slayer Janice MacKinnon.
Wilkinson says Ottawa has always been flexible on clean energy rules. Yeah, right. A Canadian Press story.
CO2
Oilsands producers confident in their massive carbon capture project.
Pipelines:
Enbridge is finally, really, totally, completely done on Line 3 replacement. Really.
Coastal GasLink pipeline, the one to feed LNG Canada and finally allow LNG exports, has now been hydrotested and is now mechanically complete.
Nuclear, small and large:
Saskatchewan funds the Saskatchewan Research Council getting its first micro reactor. Notably, it’s a Westinghouse eVinci. Who closed its 49% purchase of Westinghouse a few weeks ago? Cameco.
SNC-Lavalin under a new name launches its first 1000 megawatt CANDU reactors.
The biggest opponent to nuclear development in Saskatchewan for decades was NDP MLA and cabinet minister Peter Prebble. Guess who is now complaining about Saskatchewan’s greenhouse gas emissions? – a Zinchuk column
Misc.
A huge change occurred in Saskatchewan media, with the retirement of John Gormley, the king of talk radio in the Land of Living Skies for the last 25 years. His replacement is former Regina Police Service chief Evan Bray.
Lithium in SK, Part 22: Arizona Lithium is running its pilot plant for Torquay project, elaborates on commercialization plans for 2025.
Whatever you have to say about electric vehicles, the phone or laptop you’re reading this on has a lithium battery. And all the services being used to develop this in Saskatchewan are oilfield services companies.
