Via reader Reginald, who explains;
Republicans have the edge thanks to a shift in electoral votes from the 2010 Census. If they win back the usual Republican states, they will win by exactly one electoral vote.
But Obama has a solid grasp on many states, and the Midwest is the key to victory. If he scores an upset victory in Florida, North Carolina, or Ohio, the election is over.
If the Republican gets an upset victory in Michigan, Minnesota, or Pennsylvania without losing FL, NC, or OH, that will wrap it up.
Play with the map here.
OH PA FL VA NC Are going GOP – VA and FL likely by big margins.
AZ is in play – so call it neutral. (i think it goes GOP big time)
NH will go GOP if Romney wins the nom.
WI may hold the balance of power…
slightly related:
http://www.therightscoop.com/newt-george-soros-is-right-im-the-real-threat-not-romney/
Newt has already incorporated this weekend’s interview with George Soros into his campaign speech:
Newt: George Soros is right. I’m the real threat, not Romney.
Cheers
Hans Rupprecht, Commander in Chief
1st Saint Nicolaas Army
Army Group “True North”
Sorry to disappoint, but here are some facts:
Right now, VA is essentially tied. This does not bode well for Romney. Romney is behind in NM by 15 points, although NV may genuinely be in play. Sure, winning PA would help a lot, but hard to see that without a genuine R swing. I agree with the commentator about WI, but recall that Kerry “won” that in 2004.
Romney has won precisely two elections: the governor’s race in MA in 2002, the year of the Bush surge, against one of the weakest D candidates in 50 years, and this year’s NH primary. He chose not to run again in 2006 — he would have been beaten soundly. His “electability” is at best untested. He would be the first President since Polk to be elected without winning his home state. He has the least experience of any Republican nominee since Willkie in 1940.
Barring economic collapse, narrow Obama victory is most likely.
If it’s that close, after 4 years of this guy, abandon all hope for it doesn’t matter who wins.
Have to agree with Dale here.
Honestly, if this much of the country has completely thrown in with socialism, it’s all over but the crying.
We’re going to have to go through some VERY hard times to convince people to give up those views.
A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship.
I’m afraid that at the moment it appears that Dale, Alyric and North of 60 are right. When 47% of the population pay no federal incomes taxes, the axiom that North of 60 has printed comes into play.
This is a very crucial election for the US. I know, I know, they always are. The stark difference here is that the socialists have come right out into the open and do not hide the fact that their aim is to fundamentally change the United States from Obama’s own mouth.
My personal belief is that it is still too early to make predictions on which way the undecided states will lean. If, by october, the economy picks up, Obama will get back in. If it continues to stagnate and gets worse, he’s out. Every failed stimulus by Obama helps the GOP and they are starting to grow in number and will be used against him. If the AGW scam continues to unravel and the cost of alternative energy is seen for the inefficient monster it is, that will also help the GOP. More defaults in failed states like California will also wake up a lot of undecided voters and even some Democrats in other states when they compare it to what Chris Christy is accomplishing in New Jersey. So many variables that I’ll wait another 8 months before putting out a prediction I would lay money on. I’ll play with the map starting Oct.1. If nothing changes by then I’ll just wing it and hope Obama gets tossed. There will probably be more interest in this election than any in US history and the stakes also higher than any in US history. Sink or swim. Just my opinion of course.
Does that map take into account cheating, thuggery and dead people voting? Just curious.
Because the Dems won’t give it up that easily. Count on it. If he does lose, hellish riots in the streets. Count on it.
I just don’t see how that many people are enjoying NObama’s failed policies, extreme deficits, lack of jobs, and…pain.
Typical leftists, stuck on stupid.
They need more pain, double digit unemployment, and more failure to finally get it. It took decades in Canada for that to happen, I would like to say that the states needs 20 years of socialism and extreme deficits, but they will go bankrupt long before then, at the rate they are going.
If you are wealthy, and a businessman, welcome to Canada, we need more conservatives here, we won’t tax the crap out of you, or badmouth you, and we have better beer.
@ soccermon
“. If he does lose, hellish riots in the streets. Count on it.”
That’s one prediction I would lay money on.
Ken, exactly the same thing happened in Sweden starting in the mid-1970s. The non-tax paying part of the electorate grew so large that for decades nothing other than watermelons were electable. The current government was elected only by a coalition of literally just about everything else.
Dan, you are right. Voters will continue to suffer the pain of their own bad choices until it finally becomes sufficiently severe that they are forced to decide otherwise. Unfortunately, sometimes that choice is fascism.
I send this from suburban Raleigh, NORTH CAROLINA.
Sorry to repeat myself, but there is NO WAY Obama wins NC this time, period, end of discussion. You can read pundits who reside in DC or NYC or listen to the guy on the ground right here in NC.
VA is pretty much the same once you get BEYOND the DC suburbs of VA and downtown Richmond (= black). The rest of VA is so conservative it makes me look progessive.
FL is solid Republican EXCEPT the southeast corner which is heavilly populated by retired New York Jews …the entire southeast corner ressembles a ‘Seinfeld’ episode with Gerry’s and/or George’s retired parents yelling at each other in El Boca Grande!
All 3 of these states (NC; VA; FL) got rid of their ‘white guilt’ by voting for Obama in 2008. Now they’re VERY over it! These 3 states are also “right to work” states = weak unions, unlike OH, PA, MI and WI … Obama will not carry a single southern state, so erase those from any “Obama wins” calculations. If he wins a single southern state, I will pucker up and kiss anybody on this forum on all 4 cheeks at high noon at the main intersection of your choice!
A Canadian friend of mine just got back from 2 weeks in Honolulu. She met a LOT of Americans while there. She said that most of them are VERY angry with Obama.
Not an accurate sample size or dispersion I know but it gives me hope that not all Americans have become Entitlement Junkies.
All depends on how citizens feel this fall after gas prices drop. Will that make a difference ir is it too little too late?
Personally i think obama has lost the room. But i cant believe it is apparently this close after all this time. I find it hard to believe obama carries much beyond core blue states.
But if there is a good summer….heck anything can be spun
it’s irrelevant how people vote, it’s how the votes are counted that matters and we’ve already seen what the dems will do to massage every fictitious vote they can out of the system…including rigging the electronic machines…maybe the US should go back to paper ballots for the president ? of course those are even easier to come by during the count..the PQ proved that years ago.
With Romney as the nominee, in an economic collapse, Obama will be DELIGHTED to run against him. Obama will portray Romney as one of those evil, white, rich, banksters, WHO DID THIS THIS TO US. Myth Romney is the perfect Republican for Obama to DEMONIZE, to get his base JAZZED-UP against. If the economy picks up, Obama will take credit, but the likelyhood of that happening, with news of what is going down in Europe is VANISHING. The dream of Romney vanquishing Obama is just that, A FREAKING DREAM!
We will have to change our tune and start cheering for the OWS crowd next Spring. If they create enough of a disturbance,it may just wake the undecided from their slumber and get them to think about “change”,again.
If anything, U.S. fuel prices should go UP this Fall,Obama’s shut down exploration and pipelines,so why would pump prices go down?
Robert, if true that would be truly remarkable. Hawaii has voted solid Democrat ever since statehood.
I believe Gingrich is the weaker candidate with the 3% of voters in the swing states who matter. I see too many states where he is vulnerable. Romney will dominate Nevada and Florida, and he may win Michigan, Iowa, and New Hampshire and maybe one or more of Maine’s electoral votes.
I think Davers is right about the South and won’t be puckering up. I believe and hope he is correct about North Carolina and Virginia.
Kerry won Pennsylvania by a smaller margin than Bush won Ohio in 2004. Still, I think the “thuggery” in Philadelphia will make it a hard state to win. The only other states where thuggery is a threat is Ohio. The other states will already go Blue.
In my map of Republican victory, I concede Obama the states of Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Colorado, and Iowa and one electoral vote from Nebraska. From 2008, I take back Virginia, Florida, Indiana, Nevada, Ohio, and North Carolina. That’s how Republicans win with 271 votes.
If the Republican wins any of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, or Minnesota, they can afford to lose one or two other states.
The biggest concern I have is Missouri. It has been too close for comfort. Nebraska’s split electoral votes are a problem too.
The most interesting scenario is if Obama wins Nevada and the Republican wins New Hampshire or all of Maine. Maine. There will be an electoral tie at 269, and the Republican House will choose the president.
If Obama wins two of Nebraska’s electoral votes, he might win literally by a one vote margin (270 to 268). Talk about heartbreaks.
On the other hand, if the Republican wins even one of Maine’s electoral votes, that could make a one vote margin. I tend to think the split electoral votes in Maine and Nebraska work against us.
Have fun playing with the map. It doesn’t matter whether Gingrich or Romney is more popular than the other nationwide. What matters is how popular they are in a few states. When you consider who will be our next president, if you’re not thinking about this map, you’re not thinking.
To look at the doomsday scenario, Reginald, from your map of the close states, all Obama needs to do is take Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and any one other state to win. If he loses any of these four key states, he could be in trouble.
All of these voted for him in 2008. So one real question is, how well is Obama going to do in the rust belt this time?
@CGH:
Yes, those four states are pivotal. I’m assuming Obama will hold Pennsylvania and Michigan. If he wins Ohio OR Florida, the election is probably over.
If there is disaster in OH or FL, the Republican would have to take three or four other Midwestern states to have any chance. Winning ONE of them would be miraculous. Although Republicans have an electoral advantage, their margin in the state’s that matter is slim. Ohio, Missouri, and Florida are fickle.
Michigan’s House delegation has a majority of Republicans. Let’s hope that bodes well for our nominee.
On that note, Republicans currently hold the majority in 36 House delegations, but the NEW House will select the president in case of a tied Electoral College. Republicans have a bare majority in about six states, but Democrats have a bare majority in about the same.
Republicans will pick up seats from the Census reapportionment. Unfortunately, they are gaining seats where they hold strong majorities. They might gain strength in Nevada, but might lose it in Illinois.
Those statistics are only relevant in the unlikely event of an electoral tie. The odds are that Republicans will retain the House and win the Senate. That will be little consolation if Obama wins since he will be picking our justices, judges, US attorneys and cabinet officials. He will also be vetoing Republican legislation.
The presidency is MUCH more important than control of either chamber in this upcoming election. I can’t stress enough how much we need to be united behind our candidate. This is not a time for political purity or dogmatic principles. Any division could throw a key state in Obama’s column. Even ONE electoral vote in Nebraska could spell disaster. A third party candidate could be calamitous.
This might be the closest and most important election in our lifetimes. If you live in or near FL, VA, NC, OH, IA, CO, NE, ME, MN, MI, NV, or WI, you have work to do. If you’ve never donated to a presidential campaign before, this would be a good time to start.
I don’t know about you, but I’d like to go to bed early on November 6th with a big smile on my face.
@Gord:
If Republicans lose Arizona, it would be disastrous. They would need to win Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, or Wisconsin to make up for that loss.
Are Republicans more likely to lose a conservative state or win a liberal state? I think Arizona is safe.
cgh said “Robert, if true that would be truly remarkable. Hawaii has voted solid Democrat ever since statehood.”
I suspect the Americans Robert was referring to were probably not from Hawaii.
That said, Hawaii did vote Democrat twice, one was in Reagan’s landslide in 1984 – what a marvellous election that was! The other was in 1972 – Nixon.
Sorry, that should have been “That said, Hawaii did vote *Republican* twice, one was in…”
@John:
Virginia is tough – no doubt about it. It’s a “must win” for Republicans. If we can’t win Virginia, then how do we think we can win Pennsylvania or Michigan to make up for that loss? Same goes for North Carolina.
If the Republican loses both Virginia and North Carolina, he would have to win Pennsylvania and either Minnesota, Michigan, or Wisconsin. Tall order.
Winning New Mexico matters in only three somewhat likely cases:
1. If the Republican loses Nevada
2. If the Republican loses North Carolina but wins Michigan.
3. If the Republican loses Virginia but wins Michigan (electoral tie broken by the House)
If the Republican is behind 15 points in NM, then I’d spend no time there and spend more time in Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa.
We could lose Nevada and still win as long as we win New Hampshire, Iowa, or Maine. If the Republican loses any of FL, VA, NC, IN, AZ, OH, or MO, then NV becomes irrelevant.
To have a winning strategy, we have to think about how we can win, not about how badly we can lose.
TJ is correct. I expect that 99% of the Americans my friend spoke with were visitors from elsewhere.
What is shaping up to be a big factor is although ACORN is officially dead…..it’s zombie lives.
Expect everything from rigged voting machines, to motor voter fraud to delayed mailing of absentee ballots(armed services tend to vote Republican and the DEMONcRATS know it).
It has been reasonably speculated that Maobama was elected by election fraud.
On the plus side although the MSM will double down, unemployment and high gas/energy costs do not re-elect incumbents.
White-guilt has been extinguished…..and Maobama’s base didn’t get all the stuff they thought he promised…..
There is a fair to good chance that the Florida Republican primary will settle the election, not just the nomination…..if Newt wins big….
I agree with sasquatch. The first election was as much about proving to themselves that america could elect a dark skinned president.
Now the idea of obama is gone and americans will have to decide if they liked the reality. I still dont see how he wins with an approval rating thats so low, and kne that drops when he speaks.
My fearless projection:
Romney successfully buys the nomination but loses narrowly to Obama (thanks to identity politics and the general dumbing down of the electorate.) Republicans retain the House and win a small Senate majority. The ensuing gridlock means overspending goes unchecked, precipitating an even graver economic crisis in the U.S. A conservative third party movement arises but fails to get off the ground. On the plus side, the Keystone pipeline is approved when enviro-weenie votes and money are no longer needed for Obama’s campaign.
That is my optimistic scenario. International events (Europe, Iran, etc.) or a Dem controlled Senate could make it worse.
(Sigh) “I’m assuming Obama will hold Pennsylvania and Michigan.”
Good old Michigan. Continuing to vote for what’s failed them repeatedly over the years. And they wonder why Detroit is in ruins. I would expect that Obama is going to play heavily on the GM/Chrysler bailout.
“If he wins Ohio OR Florida, the election is probably over.”
No kidding. Like just about always, it’s going to come down to less than a dozen states that really matter. With some minor swiggles here and there, it’s interesting how the US electoral map essentially resembles the dividing line between North and South in 1862. The two parties have completely reversed themselves. It would appear that a century really isn’t enough time to recover from a civil war.
“The presidency is MUCH more important than control of either chamber in this upcoming election.”
Amen, brother. A long, loud shoutout to all the Ron Paul supporters and other no-hopers out there. If the Elephants aren’t unified they’re done. And welcome to another four years of utter misery. And the longer they take to unify, the better Obama’s chances get. So here’s the choice put in simplest terms:
1. the guy most people on this board claim as a CINO.
2, four more years of socialism and worse, outright weakness particularly in foreign affairs.
technically, the electoral college can elect a President that didn’t ‘win’ any votes at all…
look it up yourselves…
…Electors are free to vote for anyone eligible to be President, but in practice pledge to vote for specific candidates and voters cast ballots for favored presidential and vice presidential candidates by voting for correspondingly pledged electors…
the question is, how low would the liebrals stoop to avoid the fallout from what’s going to happen if ‘bama loses before the people find out..around 2014…just what they did in 2008 ?
the answer is..as low as it takes.
this is more than an election, it’s about whether or not a large number of moonbats end up going to jail or maybe even standing in front of a wall…and romney is the candidate they want..they know that even if he wins, he’ll do what they tell him…because he’s one of them.
Bemused, who are ‘they’?
Amen, brother. A long, loud shoutout to all the Ron Paul supporters and other no-hopers out there. So here’s the choice put in simplest terms: 1. the guy most people on this board claim as a CINO. 2, four more years of socialism and worse, outright weakness particularly in foreign affairs.
You said what I didn’t want to say. I wanted people to apply their marvelous brain power and figure it out themselves.
Scalia, Ginsburg, and Kennedy are in their 70s. Many important Supreme Court decisions have broken 5-4 in our favor. The next president will choose 1, 2, or maybe 3 justices. Do the math. Consider the consequences of giving Obama those choices.
Think how much better government will be with Holder, Clinton, Geithner, Chu, Solis, Donovan, Napolitano, Pannetta, Bryson, Sebelius, and Shinseki out of the bureaucracy.
It will be easier for libertarians and conservatives to keep a CINO honest than to change the ideology of Obama. We definitely won’t be repealing Obamacare if Obama is reelected.
People voting their hopes is what put us in our current mess.
“It will be easier for libertarians and conservatives to keep a CINO honest than to change the ideology of Obama.”
On your list of those who must be gotten rid of you left out the appalling Lis Jackson and Carol Browner (never think that she won’t be back).
Again, let the congregation say Amen. The longer the Republicans take to get their act together the better Obama’s chances get. While it’s contrary to what most think on this board, what the US really needs right now is a moderate Republican to isolate the Democratic radical left. And Romney comes closest to fitting that bill.
“People voting their hopes is what put us in our current mess.”
And too many radical from the radical far right insisting that all must be ideologically pure and busily chasing out everyone they regard as soft.
And going down to defeat once again if they get their way. All nations are governed from the centre and the US is no exception, as shown by your electoral map.