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January 27, 2012

The Sound Of Settled Science

Via Powerline;

The climate system may be less sensitive to greenhouse-gas warming than many models have predicted.

Nathan Gillett and his co-workers at Environment Canada in Victoria, British Columbia, analysed how well the latest Canadian Earth System Model tracked temperature changes attributable to volcanoes, man-made aerosols and rising greenhouse-gas emissions. They adjusted the model using temperature records from 1851 to 2010 — 60 years of data more than most previous analyses. The model predicted a short-term increase of 1.3–1.8 °C for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, which is low in the range of estimates from previous forecasts.

Say it isn't so.

Posted by Kate at January 27, 2012 12:03 PM
Comments

The solution to climate fears is not difficult. Throw out the climate models and fire the modelers.

IOW...do what they do in Hong Kong...when it rains...let it.

Posted by: sasquatch at January 27, 2012 12:27 PM

Fear? Nahhhhhh not so much.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/27/sixteen-prominent-scientists-publish-a-letter-in-wsj-saying-theres-no-need-to-panic-about-global-warming/

Posted by: Fred at January 27, 2012 12:51 PM

And when will we see this finding on CBC's The National?

Never.

Posted by: Mark at January 27, 2012 1:03 PM

The climate system may be less sensitive to greenhouse-gas warming than many models have predicted.

A gross understatement, since the Vostok Ice Cores proved back in the 1980s that temperature change precedes change in CO2 levels rather than being driven by them.
The cause and effect in the climate models is precisely backwards.

Posted by: Oz at January 27, 2012 1:12 PM

Good article by reputable climate scientists that clearly states that the alarmist predictions by the AGW aficionados are overstated by at least a factor of two.

This is merely the latest in a series of recent climate modeling studies that conclude that the standard “consensus” forecast of the amount of warming to be expected by a doubling of carbon dioxide has been dramatically overestimated. Which is just about par for the course with most environmental scares.

Posted by: North of 60 at January 27, 2012 1:16 PM
Say it isn't so.

And the first thing I said to myself after reading just the first sentence was, "No. The f#ck you say."

Posted by: andycanuck at January 27, 2012 1:37 PM


We will have to wipe the AGW crowd off the face of the earth before this stops.
,

Posted by: Ratt at January 27, 2012 2:02 PM

The global warmingclimate change fraudsters are becoming as annoying as Jehovah's Witnesses ringing my doorbell at 8:00 am on a Sunday morning.

I just slam the door in their faces now.

Posted by: Joey at January 27, 2012 3:06 PM

Joey at 3:06 PM,
I've had greenies come to my door and when I told them I wasn't interested in their politics they actually tried to argue with me, on my door step, that the issue wasn't political!
(imagine them wanting legislation to force people to follow their ideology and wanting $Billions of taxes for support + every western nation has a Green Party and it's not political)
I told them they were too stupid to have a conversation with me and slammed the door in their face.

Posted by: Oz at January 27, 2012 3:27 PM

That Op-Ed piece in the WSJ that Wattsupwiththat and Fred are referencing to is gonna leave a mark.

(Hopefully, up the side of Gore's swollen head.)

Editor's Note: The following has been signed by the 16 scientists listed at the end of the article:


Posted by: G at January 27, 2012 4:15 PM

That Op-Ed piece in the WSJ that Wattsupwiththat and Fred are referencing to is gonna leave a mark.

(Hopefully, up the side of Gore's swollen head.)

Editor's Note: The following has been signed by the 16 scientists listed at the end of the article:


Posted by: G at January 27, 2012 4:19 PM

It is true - the climate alarmist crowd is as annoying as the Jehovah Witness crowd. But at least the JHers are not demanding and recieving big bucks from the tax payer.

Posted by: roninkelowna at January 27, 2012 4:38 PM

The chicken littles are finally dispersing as more people come to like eating chicken.
Everyday in every way we see how big a scam this really was.
Of course we all knew it here , but that most of the World fell for this Hog wash should all give us pause on how really really gall able humanity can be.
Most especially our so called "excerpts".
I,m always saddened by the fact Mark Twain , one smart dude. Spent most of his fortune on a perpetual motion machine.
Your can have brains oozing out your ears but unless you know human nature, your as vulnerable as a new born.

Posted by: Revnant Dream at January 27, 2012 4:58 PM

I miss the Jay Dubs, must have scared them off, so I hope some warmists come to my door, I need someone to denigrate

Posted by: NME666 at January 27, 2012 5:48 PM

It is great to see that more and more people who know what they are talking about are debunking Al Gore and David Suzuki's AGW scam.

Posted by: Ken (Kulak) at January 27, 2012 6:05 PM

If you want to keep Jo Hos away from your home, do what I do and fly the Israeli flag.
It does attract other undesirables though.

Posted by: John Beresford Tipton at January 27, 2012 6:13 PM

Cross a Jehovah's Witnesses with a biker.

Someone who knocks on your door on saturday morning and tells you to fugoff.

Posted by: clipe at January 27, 2012 7:10 PM

"The model predicted a short-term increase of 1.3–1.8 °C for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels"

So, it's a case of "my climate model can beat up your climate model"?

The warmers now have some severe credibility gaps to overcome and they need to close them.

This new climate model's high end prediction is perilously close to the dreaded, life ending, 2 degree C rise "everybody" fears.

Seems to me if they can get people to trust this new model as making valid predictions, then they can convince people that a 1.8 C rise in global
temperatures is certain to happen if we don't reduce our CO2 output right now.

I look at this new model as being the same as the old model with a modest adjustment in fudge factors. If bought, the Carbon scam
is then back on track, with a new concensus.

I think we need to free Carbon. It isn't the climate driver and shouldn't be punished for it.

If we don't, well, the pile of bodies the Communists racked up in the 20th century will certainly be surpassed.

Energy is Liberty folks. Fight for it or freeze.

Posted by: markon at January 27, 2012 9:34 PM

The problem with computer models...the ones that have the most stake in are more than willing to adjust...in there favour...think hockey stick....only now a little at a time ...same as the welfare state one little drop at at a time....none of them know the climate and very few are even remotley close...smoke and mirrors only slow...///

Posted by: Ken E. at January 27, 2012 10:29 PM

The problem with computer models...the ones that have the most stake in are more than willing to adjust...

Is this implying that Environment Canada has enough at stake to falsify the data in this study for some hidden agenda? What would that agenda be?

Posted by: North of 60 at January 27, 2012 11:15 PM


Posted 27-01-12, 22:12 Hide Post
January may be one of coldest ever in Fairbanks; average temperature -24.6

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
January 27, 2012 - 6:18 pm

FAIRBANKS, Alaska — The temperature in Fairbanks has not reached 50 below zero but this month may be one of the coldest Januaries in community history.

The Fairbanks Daily News-Miner http://bit.ly/xYZ89V reports the average temperature through Wednesday was 24.6 below.

That's the coldest since 1971, when the January averaged minus 31.7. The coldest average on record was 1906 — a chilly 36.4 below zero.

National Weather Service meteorologist Scott Berg describes the cold this year as "persistent," with temperatures about 15 degrees below normal for much of the month.

The thermometer hit 48 below on Jan. 14 and 15. Fairbanks had 12 days when the low at the airport was 40 below or colder, including a six-day stretch from Jan. 13-18.

The daily high has been above zero for just three days.

Posted by: North of 60 at January 28, 2012 1:14 AM

So if global warming keeps up, then in about 300 years Canada will be warm enough to have a climate, instead of being COLD most of the year. I'll keep an eye on this, maybe I can move back north for New Year's 2312! PAAARTAY!!

Posted by: bigmike at January 28, 2012 5:25 AM
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