September 22, 2011
The Sound Of Settled Science
EVIDENCE OF A LARGE SPURIOUS WARMING TREND IN THE U.S. GHCN DATA;
The following chart shows yearly area-averaged temperature anomalies from 1973 through 2009 for the 13 24 to 26 5-deg. grid squares over the U.S. having all four population classes represented (as well as a CRUTem3 average temperature measurement). All anomalies have been recomputed relative to the 30-year period, 1973-2002.
The heavy red line is from the CRUTem3 dataset, and so might be considered one of the “official” estimates. The heavy blue curve is the lowest population class. (The other 3 population classes clutter the figure too much to show, but we will soon see those results in a more useful form.)
Significantly, the warming trend in the lowest population class is only 47% of the CRUTem3 trend, a factor of two difference.
Also interesting is that in the CRUTem3 data, 1998 and 2006 would be the two warmest years during this period of record. But in the lowest population class data, the two warmest years are 1987 and 1990. When the CRUTem3 data for the whole U.S. are analyzed (the lighter red line) the two warmest years are swapped, 2006 is 1st and then 1998 2nd.
[..]
From looking at the warmest years in the CRUTem3 data, one gets the impression that each new high-temperature year supersedes the previous one in intensity. But the low-population stations show just the opposite: the intensity of the warmest years is actually decreasing over time.
h/t North of 60
Posted by Kate at September 22, 2011 1:44 PMRe: the h/t....
*cough*
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/archives/017885.html#c645912
Posted by: Colin in BC at September 22, 2011 2:52 PMSorry Colin, about 10 people emailed or posted that link. I had to pick someone.
Not easy to run a blog these days (O:}
Posted by: Revnant Dream at September 22, 2011 3:19 PMIf one analyzes temperature data trends from weather stations at small communities all across the Canadian boreal forest[post 1966 available online], one finds the same effect.
Weather stations away from urban heat islands do not show the rapid increase in global warming that some believe is happening.
It's ironic because most anthropogenic global warming believers live in the urban high population density 'heat islands' which are skewing the global average temperatures reported.
They are causing the anomaly which underpins their beliefs.
Posted by: North of 60 at September 22, 2011 3:35 PMBless 'yer heart, Kate. My comments were tongue in cheek. North of 60 can enjoy the h/t...I'll get it another day.
Posted by: Colin in BC at September 22, 2011 7:01 PMIt has been south of 20 degrees all summer in the Yukon. Temp was above the average only twice.
Posted by: Jema 54 at September 22, 2011 7:37 PMI regularly follow Anthony Watts blog WHATSUPWITHTHAT....and besides this urban rural phenomina, James Hansens?CRU "adjustments", polution and destruction of the Climate Records....the reality is the records were more or less meaningless before the tampering, massaging and deletion....the WUWT Surface Stations project established not just the recent poor siting of NOAA SURFACE STATIONs but that there is reason to believe that they were ever accurate.
For example, the SURFACE STATION on a flat tar/gravel roof of the PHYSICS Building at a major UNIVERSITY....the very place where one might reasonably expect them to get it right.
It is reasonable to say...WHAT WARMING?
Is the alleged observed warming mainly siting error, Urban Heat Island Effect or the Hockey Team's fabrication?
Posted by: sasquatch at September 22, 2011 8:13 PMSasquatch, the temperature-derived long term record was never reliable. First there was contamination in relocation of stations. Second, the raw data was tampered with. And third it used unacceptable statistical methods to produce smoothed long term temperature curves. And fourth, the claimed rise in temperature was within statistical norms. This is what was produced in IPPC's second report in the mid-1990s. Because it was not particularly alarming and still had the Mediaeval Warming Period, they hit upon the paleo-chronology method.
The Hockey Stick Team tried to get around the problem of temperature station records by using tree rings instead of thermometers. We know that this didn't work because trees are subject to many more variations in living conditions that just temperature. Particularly bristlecone pines.
Posted by: cgh at September 22, 2011 9:21 PMIn the W. Canadian boreal forest average winter temperatures have increased by about 3°C in 50 years. There has been negligible change in average Spring, Summer and Fall temperatures. The overall yearly average change is less than a degree in 50 years, or 0.02°C per decade. 1/10th of the CRUTem3 trend that warming alarmists cling to.
Posted by: North of 60 at September 23, 2011 4:00 AMWaiting for the East Anglia tell all.
Posted by: swampy at September 23, 2011 10:04 AM