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December 24, 2009

The Sound Of All Hell Breaking Loose: A Lump Of Code In Your Stocking

Steve McIntyre finds something under his tree;

The UK Met Office has released a large tranche of station data, together with code.

Only last summer, the Met Office had turned down my FOI request for station data, saying that the provision of station data to me would threaten the course of UK international relations. Apparently, these excuses have somehow ceased to apply.

Early reviews at Bishop Hill;

Meanwhile, even this extremely limited attempt at openness is not all it seems to be. John G-C has been looking at the code and running it against the data he has. What he has found is that prior to 1855 there was no southern hemisphere data and that when you run the Met Office's newly released code, this shows up as a gap in the graph of the average. But there is no such gap in the actual CRUTEM index. John's conclusion is that what we're looking at is not the actual code used in CRUTEM, but something written especially for public consumption. In light of the scorn that many programmers have been pouring on the quality of the coding standards at CRU, this might suggest that the original code was just too awful to make available for public inspection.

Via Anthony Watts

Update: Reading the comments at the sites linked above, most are in agreement about the nature of the data released.

Posted by Kate at December 24, 2009 10:19 AM
Comments

This illustrates the principle I have long held about "creative book-keeping".....
Much like a contrived driver's logbook.....
....it will not survive serious scrutiny.......

Posted by: sasquatch at December 24, 2009 10:41 AM


" Think about what these jackasses just wrote!! Have they learned nothing?!?!?!! How does sea level rise prove a temperature record within tenths of a degree!!! @@%!^$^@. If a special ed student made the statement you’d give them an F. How dumb do they think we are??? Wow, just wow.

Ok, – five minutes later, I’m calm again."

http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2009/12/23/cru-releases-some-data/#more-7185

Posted by: Fred at December 24, 2009 10:59 AM

Does this really mean that the temperatures are not rising and neither is the oceans? But...but...but...I live in the Okanagan and I was told that this would be oceanfront property really, really soon. I bought my son a surf board for Christmas.

Please, don't tell me somebody lied!!! 8^(

Posted by: glacierman at December 24, 2009 11:04 AM

liars and cheaters and errs ,Oh my.

Posted by: cal2 at December 24, 2009 11:11 AM

Getting ready to "get back where they want me" (sorry, BTO reference), make a stand, take it like a man.

==========

And would you cry if I told you that I lied and would you say goodbye Or
would you let it ride? And would you cry if I told you that I lied and
would you say goodbye Or would you let it ride?

Babe my life is not complete I never see you smile
Ride ride ride let it ride
Baby you want the forgivin' kind and that's just not my style
Ride ride ride let it ride

Posted by: PiperPaul at December 24, 2009 11:19 AM

Oh crap, I think I need a Harley now.

Posted by: PiperPaul at December 24, 2009 11:23 AM

Sea level rise?....i don`t think so. I have lived on Pacific Ocean waterfront for many years and there has been NO change! The ocean is only rising in the Maldives! Just as President (hand out) Mohamed Nasheed!

Posted by: Al W at December 24, 2009 11:30 AM


Typo...as=ask...sorry about that!

Posted by: Al W at December 24, 2009 11:32 AM

Kate:

I think I will stick with the traditional lump of coal.

In this case we will make it a burning lump of coal for their shoes, because we wouldn't want the poor data dispossessed darlings to freeze in the dark!

At least burning coal provides a method of lighting their candles, because it is quite obvious they have no clue where they are going...

Oh come to Him, all ye data weary,

For all your computers will not give rest to your soul

He who is meek and humble of heart, will:


Luke 1:79 "... give light to those who sit in darkness and in the shadow of death, to guide our feet into the way of peace."


Merry Christmas Cheers!


Hans-Christian Georg Rupprecht, Commander in Chief

1st Saint Nicolaas Army
Army Group “True North"

Posted by: Hans Rupprecht at December 24, 2009 11:57 AM

Is the sea level rising, or is the land level falling?

Posted by: foobert at December 24, 2009 12:00 PM

In computer science, there is the concept of "digitally signing" a piece of data. This is a technique used to guarantee that a piece of data is from who it says it's from and has not been changed during delivery (it's mostly used for secure email).

Given all the blatant lying that's coming out of CRU and others, I think it's high time we started requiring researchers to digitally sign all the data they release, and cross-ref the signatures of the code with the results it supposedly produces. That way there'd be none of this foolishness because anyone could look at the code signature on the CRUTEM graph and and the signature on the just-released code and instantly say "this isn't the code we're looking for".

Similarly, if you included the signatures of the source data with each graph based on the data, you'd instantly know whether you were being given the right data.

It can't prevent outright hide-the-decline faking, but it can prevent this kind of after the fact CYA.

Posted by: Daniel Ream at December 24, 2009 12:12 PM

Foobert, an extremely important point you make. What with the sea level variance due to land rise and fall from tectonic motion and glacial rebound, this gives the warmists lots of latitude for deception and self serving adjustments. I don’t trust ANYTHING coming from that camp anymore.

Posted by: Woodporter at December 24, 2009 12:15 PM

I would like to know exactly how sea level is measured. If the earths plates are constantly moving and there is a sort of leveling going on due to gravity and erosion, how can you say the sea level is rising if maybe your measuring stick is actually falling? What if the constant is actually the variable?

Posted by: Knacker at December 24, 2009 1:02 PM

Data digital signatures ?

Well, sure ... they may be required for important work but 'just trust us' is good enough for sundry/miscellaneous things like convincing the world to throw a $Trillion Dollars at adjusting the earth's thermostat in an attempt to take us back to pre-industrial/ Charles Dickens times.

Posted by: ron in kelowna ∴ at December 24, 2009 1:22 PM

"Just trust us" is the clarion call of the left on every government program ever conceived.

Posted by: rebarbarian at December 24, 2009 1:34 PM

Please go to PBS here and post a comment regarding Jim Lehrer’s interview with Obama

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2009/12/excerpt-obama-on-disappointment-in-copenhagen.html

Editor's note to "Kate", please use an identity distinct from mine when commenting here. Thanks - Kate M.

Posted by: Kate at December 24, 2009 1:37 PM

"In computer science, there is the concept of "digitally signing" a piece of data."

You know, it's f*cking amazing that engineers in the past were able to do what they did without modern, sophisticated software.

Bridges, airplanes, process plants, skyscrapers, automobiles, just to name a few.

Creating these things took mostly two characteristics: brutal honesty and critical thinking.

Posted by: PiperPaul at December 24, 2009 1:46 PM

Just got a Newsgram email from Hewlett-Packard (Canada). In the email banner is a quote of Maurice Strong's "What we do as individuals matters. It adds up". That is Maurice's code for down with freedom.

It seems that many companies have bought into the global warming fraud, if for no other reason than self-preservation. I informed HP that they have lost me as a customer. How many more Coca Colas are there around.

My New Years wish for 2010 is that some of the Global Warming fraud artists show up as defendants in court.

Posted by: Ken (Kulak) at December 24, 2009 1:50 PM

PiperPaul
we still call it "safety factors"

Cal2 , P.Eng

Posted by: cal2 at December 24, 2009 1:50 PM

To Knacker @ 1:02pm - Good question. Most modern statements are based on massive amounts of data collected by global satellite radar readings. These days, it is usually measured w/r/t the mathematically smooth ellipsoid (usually WGS-84) with precise GPS readings, then equated to some "sea level" by a choice of geoid model relating the ellipsoid height to gravity. It is entirely possible for an ellipsoid height to indicate a submarine above the ellipsoid, while an aircraft carrier is below it, depending on their location around the globe. Of course the sub does not fly, nor the carrier sink - the difference is due to the geoid modelling to get to "sea level".

Historically, a local sea level was established by observing multitudes of tidal stations with long term observations spanning full lunar cycles of 18.6 years. Add in complexities due to local harbor currents, changes in shorelines during observing periods, long term glacial rebound effects, and differing reference frames (both local and global geoids and ellipsiods) and things can get confusing when relating the two technologies. Of course, which Sea? Which level? Mean high water, mean lower water, mean lower high water, mean high lower water, mean high high water, mean lower low water...?

Posted by: geoid at December 24, 2009 1:54 PM

Done Kate

Posted by: Knacker at December 24, 2009 2:00 PM

Please go to PBS...

OK, done.

Posted by: PiperPaul at December 24, 2009 2:03 PM

I think there is very little evidence of rising sea levels. the east coast of the pacific is a subduction zone. bad reference. the arctic is rising because of isostatic rebound. bad reference ,
most sea level measurements over long periods are at ports which tend to be near deltas which tend to be sinking as well , making it appear as a rising sea level - venice is sinking. amsterdam is sinking . london is sinking . ( remember the Thames was a tributary of the Rhine before the last iceage( lots of fenlands thru there.)

Ive heard numbers bantered about of 1mm rise over the last century which are defendable. 1 mm!!!!

remember only 10 years ago Al Gore was predicting several meters of rise by 2012. of course he has to use footage from hollywood special effects to make his scenes now.

Posted by: cal2 at December 24, 2009 2:06 PM

To geoid @ 1:54pm - I think it would just be prudent to build on higher ground.

Posted by: Knacker at December 24, 2009 2:09 PM

Knacker @ 1:54pm - Yes, and build on stone, not shifting sand.

Posted by: geoid at December 24, 2009 2:13 PM

geoid, in process plants liquid levels are monitored carefully otherwise "bad stuff" can happen. There's HL and HHL and then there's the safety mechanisms.

The climate alarmists have been operating at full-blown safety relief/dump to flare mode for far too long now.

If everything's a crisis all the time, real problems get lost in the noise. But, such is politics - 95% emotion.

Posted by: PiperPaul at December 24, 2009 2:14 PM

PiperPaul - Have you ever had to work for a poorly run company that was always forcing to you respond to the latest internal crisis?

I call it "management by crisis", and is what AGW'ers intentionally wanted to use to get the world roped into the Evil Carbon Credits scam.

But what do I know - I'm not management, just an engineer by training, and scientist by trade.

Posted by: geoid at December 24, 2009 2:23 PM

PBS, done.

Posted by: ron in kelowna ∴ at December 24, 2009 2:31 PM

[quote]Creating these things took mostly two characteristics: brutal honesty and critical thinking.[/quote] PiperPaul

Now.. Now.. Don't be dissing "Trailer Park" Science... Mann & Jones aren't going anywhere, or building anything "real", just "self" funding for nonsence R&D.. That whole generation are flat liners...

Posted by: Phillip G. Shaw at December 24, 2009 2:39 PM

Piper Paul: "brutal honesty and critical thinking"

I love it! I'm going to use this phrase in my next resume and interview.

Posted by: geoid at December 24, 2009 3:03 PM

To paraphrase someone else: "da truth is da truth, and if you have da truth you don't need anything else".

Posted by: PiperPaul at December 24, 2009 3:47 PM

Please note that the request posted by "Kate at December 24, 2009 1:37 PM" was not mine.

Posted by: Kate at December 24, 2009 3:53 PM

Oh no, I wasted words!

Posted by: PiperPaul at December 24, 2009 3:59 PM

Sea level rise?....i don`t think so. I have lived on Pacific Ocean waterfront for many years and there has been NO change! The ocean is only rising in the Maldives! Just as President (hand out) Mohamed Nasheed!

Posted by: Al W at December 24, 2009 11:30 AM
The thing that has always bothered me about this claim with the Maldives,and I am not a scientist or a scientician or even pretend to be either,is that sea levels should rise uniformally all over the planet.Therefore,all islands should be threatened. Maybe the Maldives are sinking,or maybe it is just more BS by the men with their hands out.

Posted by: wallyj at December 24, 2009 4:22 PM

"The thing that has always bothered me about this claim with the Maldives,and I am not a scientist or a scientician or even pretend to be either,is that sea levels should rise uniformally all over the planet.Therefore,all islands should be threatened. Maybe the Maldives are sinking,or maybe it is just more BS by the men with their hands out."

Maybe we had something to do with the stronger gravitational pull of the moon specifically in the Maldives. Wow! SUV's can do everything.

Posted by: Knacker at December 24, 2009 4:30 PM

This little Christmas present just confirms for me my opinion that the CRU guys have been making it up as they went along for quite sometime.

Posted by: glenn at December 24, 2009 5:23 PM

one word for this release


DECOY!!!!!

Posted by: GYM at December 24, 2009 5:41 PM

Having read the links, it seems pretty clear that this dump is not raw data, but simply a subset of "value-added", "homogenized" data.

It's like being given 1200 pounds of hamburger, when all you asked for was a cow.

Posted by: gordinkneehill at December 24, 2009 6:00 PM

The good old Met Office in Britain announced in September the winter in Britain would be milder than average and dry...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-484277/Mild-dry-winter-ahead-says-Met-office.html

The past week it has been chaos with up to eight inches of snow in parts. The Channel Tunnel shut. Dover not running any ferries to France and now more snow to come. Good thing they didn't forecast a colder winter is all I can say.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1238128/Big-freeze-threat-family-Christmas-As-death-toll-hits-16-millions-warned-stay-roads-jeopardising-festive-gatherings.html

Posted by: LT at December 24, 2009 6:04 PM

Tried posting a comment on PBS and it was rejected with the comment "that I had already posted too many times". Not sure why that happened as it was my one and only post.

Posted by: Ken (Kulak) at December 24, 2009 6:05 PM

Kate, Merry Christmas and I would like that tobacco enema thing for some of my relatives.

Posted by: rebarbarian at December 24, 2009 8:19 PM

I hope all those who voted for OBAMA CARE and CAP & TRADE got a big lump of coal in their stockings

Posted by: SPURWING PLOVER at December 27, 2009 4:55 PM
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