December 13, 2009

The Sound Of Settled Science

(It may take those of you on slower connections a few seconds to download and begin running.)

Click here for the high resolution version, and then make sure every kid you know under the age of 14 views it.

Update - There's also a Youtube version here.

Posted by Kate at December 13, 2009 4:21 PM

Thanks, Kate. This is one of the most important things to show to, and
to explain to, people who don't yet understand what isn't going on.

Posted by: Vitruvius at December 13, 2009 5:40 PM

Perspective .

Posted by: Bill D. Cat at December 13, 2009 5:54 PM

Thanks Kate, it is great and I intend to pass it on. I do not want to be critical or show my ignorance, but the various graphs are going by a little too fast for those that do not understand what they are looking at.

Posted by: Ken (Kulak) at December 13, 2009 5:55 PM

Is there no end to the lies and taking people to be brain-dead? They should explain the global warming that produced a warmer climate during the Middle Ages prior to industrialisation.

Posted by: Alain at December 13, 2009 5:56 PM

I like Iowahawk's take on this:

The initial controversy about this result was raised by MacIntyre and McKittrick (MM) who noted the backcasts of Mann's reconstructed temperatures didn't reproduce the amplitude of the Medieval "warm period" or the subsequent "little ice age" that previous research had estimated.
. . .
They published a couple papers suggesting the flat reconstructed historical temperatures were artifacts of Mann's selection of a time frame for extracting principle components (see step 1 above), which artificially suppressed the variation in the temperature backcasts.
. . .
This artifact explanation was largely confirmed by George Mason U statistician EJ Wegman (methods editor for JASA), who blistered Mann's model in a 2006 report commissioned by the Congressional Energy & Commerce committee. Amusingly, Wegman showed that replacing Mann's principle components estimates with repeated samples of random white noise continued to produce the same hockey stick shape.

Posted by: Mississauga Matt at December 13, 2009 6:05 PM

Ken (Kulak),

If you click the link to WUWT, each slide is shown individually. You have to scroll down a smidge.

Posted by: Kathryn at December 13, 2009 6:19 PM

Just let it play a few times - one gradually catches on to the bottom (years) scale.

If it is too slow, the effect it is trying to show (perspective) is reduced.

Posted by: ron in kelowna ∴ at December 13, 2009 6:22 PM

Wonder if "experts" like gore and Suzuki have ever heard of the Archimedes principle and can apply it in connection with melting ice and oceans rising?

Posted by: Liz J at December 13, 2009 6:24 PM

Too much info. Now excuse me while I go kick the wife,have sex with the dog,and sell the pups,(makes as much sense as Mann,etc.)all at a balmy -32,but HEY its dry.

Posted by: Justthinkin at December 13, 2009 6:24 PM

Perspective is like a 'two by four' over the head.

Posted by: ron in kelowna ∴ at December 13, 2009 6:28 PM

This loop should be the screen saver in our schools !

How does one do that ? Link send-able ?

Posted by: ron in kelowna ∴ at December 13, 2009 6:31 PM

I can't believe this is the level of leadership we have in the country...Where are their brains?

Posted by: Darcy at December 13, 2009 6:37 PM

Nice charts, brings back Medieval Warming Periods of memories studying archaeology, anthropology, geology, and history.

Climategate's progress has left plenty of wreckage in its path, including ruined careers, damaged institutions, and a deeply chastened scientific establishment.


(One of the most encouraging reactions to this mess has been that of the working scientists. Out of the half-dozen or so who responded to my last piece on the topic, all but one were supportive, and that one was unhappy about the -- wholly accurate -- treatment of embryonic stem-cell research. It will be working scientists, the boiler-room gang who diligently and faithfully handle the basic work upon which the great reputations are built, who will strike the killing blow in Climategate. How would you like it if ten years of your work had to be trashed because somebody fed you bogus numbers?)


But warming is politically dead. It would require a brave politician to inconvenience voters, steal their money, and ruin their jobs based on premises that may be fraudulent. That "may" is the crucial term -- fraud doesn't have to be proven. Doubt is all that's required. When fraud enters the picture, everything else -- certainty, veracity, trust -- gets up and leaves. Fakery distorts everything that it touches. To claim that, even though the last batch of data was tainted, the next batch just might be okay, is the same as saying that the last e-mail offer you got from the Nigerian President's Office may have cleaned out your bank account, but this one you just opened has got to be for real.

Which is the exactly position of contemporary climatology. In their eagerness to put over their thesis, the CRU crew ran roughshod over the rules of their discipline. They piled one lie on top of the other until the whole thing came down on them, bringing their field down with it. It will be a long time before anybody accepts a check from a climatologist.


Hans-Christian Georg Rupprecht, Commander in Chief

1st Saint Nicolaas Army
Army Group “True North"

Posted by: Hans Rupprecht at December 13, 2009 6:43 PM

you are going to need some big honking flux capacitors to smooth that waveform out.

Posted by: Texas Canuck at December 13, 2009 6:43 PM

It doesn't get more funny.
Climate change demonstration in temperatures pushing -40.

Needles to say the MSM had to report it trying to give those misguided individuals credibility.
I recall last year they had there demonstration on the first cold snap and snow too, those Greens sure know how to pick there days to demonstrate for there cause.

Posted by: Yeti at December 13, 2009 6:45 PM

We still come once again with the real issue, no apathetic or force fed(MSM) person is going to see this data.

I'm on facebook and I personally feel like a broken record for all the links and articles I give to people including this one. Maybe 2% of people comment on my links and I know there are others who agree with the most of us on this issue that do not. For most people, they couldn't be bothered.

I am saddened with this apathy. We are potentially facing the greatest bomb the world has ever witnessed(cap and trade) and people are going to be screaming "How did this happen?!"

Posted by: Knacker at December 13, 2009 6:48 PM

Kathryn @ 6:19, thanks, the jist of my request falls in line with Knacker's comment at 6:48, in that those that are not actively following this as we are, might have a difficult time deciphering the graphs at the speed they are flitting by.

But then these older eyes are sometimes slow to adjust.

Posted by: Ken (Kulak) at December 13, 2009 6:56 PM

Creative ways to not co-operate with governments that sign on to this BS to raid our pockets? Worth a post, Kate?

Posted by: shaken at December 13, 2009 7:05 PM

Another thing...

Just watched Hansen on Letterman -- a must watch.

There you have it. Disaster + for our doomed Earth. But sure, sure they should fess-up with the data. East-Angelica Angels should sprout a few more wings, and deliver the data.

But you know, says Hansen, it really doesn't matter, it really doesn't matter. We already know that the Earth is warming drastically, so the data doesn't really matter.

And that, in a relatively small, rolling herd-turd is the purple perfidy purposefully promulgated by present pessimist priests.

Posted by: noel at December 13, 2009 7:05 PM

Absolutely fascinating. Several things to note:

A major rise in warming, which took place around 100,000 ago, coincided with the appearance of our particular species, homo sapiens - the species which was able to take control of his environment. The era after remained warmer in comparison to previous times; this would have enabled more plant and animal harvesting for food.

The period around 8,000 years ago, was also a rise in temperature, and this was the era when the land became suitable for agriculture and expanding populations spread over larger and larger land bases as the land became more habitable and as plant and animal growth expanded.

Then, the period from 800 to 1200 was another warm period. This saw huge increases in population in Europe, which led to the need for a tectonic shift, the technological and intellectual change of the obtain more energy for this population.
The 1400 to 1850 period was relatively stable and saw the in depth technological development of the market economy and the middle class.

We are now in another rise from the 1450-1850 stable phase. But this seems to be a normal occurrence. If you take a look at the very last chart, the highs and lows follow a pattern. Think of it as a mountain range: highest peak; low; two high peaks; down...repeated over and over. Obviously the sun's effect...and it means we'll start a cooling phase after this.

The correlations between temperature increases and increases in population and concomitant requirements for technological changes to provide new energy sources can't, I think, be ignored.

Posted by: ET at December 13, 2009 7:09 PM

JoAnn at Blue Like You has a great post up, including a vid of Lord Moncton interviewing a Green Peace person. His questions are wonderful.Knacker...perhaps some discussion based on Moncton's style of questioning. I know about your frustration.

Posted by: bluetech at December 13, 2009 7:17 PM

I am referring to the larger crime presented to us by the politicians and media by not making it policy to being honestly objective.

Here is an even more serious question, what will people do if a cap and trade policy is established and we get to the $9/litre($36/gallon) as some pro-AGW but anti-"cap'n'trade" experts are predicting?

There is no way I could afford this, but I am responsible for the safety and well being of my family. I imagine the steps I would have to take for my family and they are not in the realm of proper society practices, but I will do what I have to.

I would love to see these kinds of serious questions raised by the MSM but I know they will not. The MSM are in this for the short term and only because it keeps their bottom end from dropping.

Posted by: Knacker at December 13, 2009 7:17 PM

Nothing new to anyone who has studied geology or geomorphology . . . this is old news. Brings back memories of analyzing soil cores in Uni days. Our dirt lab was really close to a campus pub . . . 'nuff said.

Funny hos the eco-grifter climate science community had to re-write geologic history to make the scare campaign work.

Time to kick all of them off the Research Funding Gravy Train . . . they are all well past their best before date.

Posted by: Fred at December 13, 2009 7:30 PM

The will need a big curve on the old hockey stick blade to raise the latest temperature records in Edmonton:

"EDMONTON — It was colder in Edmonton Sunday than anywhere else in North America.

Sunday also marked the coldest Dec. 13 in Edmonton’s history, said Environment Canada meteorologist Pierre Lessard said.

Environment Canada recorded a frigid -46.1 C, or -58.4 C with wind chill, at the Edmonton International Airport at 5 a.m., Lessard said.

The old record of -36.1 C was set last year, he said.

“To break a temperature by 10 degrees is very exceptional,” said Lessard...."

I idled my car for an extra half hour in honor of that record!

Posted by: hoil at December 13, 2009 7:35 PM

Had a talk with my 12 yearolds teacher at school last week and she was upset that when the talk turned to Copenhagen, my son told the whole class that global warming was not happening. She wanted me to talk to him about it, and I said that I do and am glad he brought it up. She then got upset with me and said and I quote "you are a farmer, what do you know about global warming?" With that I said "more then the teachers teaching are kids" and walked out!

Posted by: jamie at December 13, 2009 7:38 PM


FINALLY the science that's settled. congrats Kate, we can only surmise the time it takes to compile and make this view presentable. thank you and congratulations.

can you tell I'm a convert to the skeptics?

jeezuz I hate being lied to.

Posted by: curious_george at December 13, 2009 7:53 PM

The MWP is the reason why I chuckle every time I hear the MSM and greens regurgitate "the last ten years have been the warmest on record" argument. On record meaning the 150 years since the thermometer was invented...150 years is a blink of an eye in geological time. Yet these same people, our intellectual and moral superiors, will ruthlessly mock Young Earth Christians.

There is no unprecedented warming. Humans do not control the weather. Politicians pledging to keep warming under 2C is absolutely ridiculous. History will regard them as ignorant, arrogant fools.

Posted by: LC Bennett at December 13, 2009 7:55 PM

correction - about 250 years not 150 (1724 was the exact year)

Posted by: LC Bennett at December 13, 2009 7:59 PM

I think that hidden in all that data on different time scales is a very interesting conclusion that I wish the scientific community would take more seriously.

In fact, what is most likely to happen in the next five to ten thousand years based on everything known about the astronomical causes of the recent glacial eras, is this -- we have passed the peak of this inter-glacial, that came in the Neolithic, and from here on, it's likely to cool more than warm.

Fortunately for us, the Milankovitch cycle variables are not all going negative as quickly as they did to initiate the last (Wisconsin) glaciation about 120,000 years ago. This gives us some time, because we're likely to see a much more gradual change to glacial climate this time around.

Actually, if human activity is warming the atmosphere slightly, that's not such a bad thing at this point in the longer climatic cycles. Perhaps we could adapt by warming it further and stabilizing the climate, because another ice age is going to be a far greater human disaster than a rise in sea levels would be (and most other effects of a warmer climate would be good, especially in Canada).

On balance, we might be smarter to keep our options open. I'm one researcher who believes that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere could have a slight warming effect, I just happen to think that we've recently hit a sharp natural cooling cycle and so the net warming of the 1990s has changed to a net cooling, but it may be somewhat less intense because of greenhouse gases. The difference may be only 0.2 to 0.4 C, not exactly much of a big deal when it's -35 C outside.

The thing is, if these lunatics are allowed to continue with some of their ideas and start deflecting sunlight away from high latitudes as we've been reading, this could be catastrophic, doing this during a period of slight natural cooling could accelerate the onset of the next ice age. This worries me even more than the here and now economic impacts of the AGW lobby, and with the groupthink mentality at work, you could easily imagine the idiots going ahead and trying one of these schemes. Can you imagine cooling off this current weather pattern by 2-3 degrees?

That would surely make the arctic air heavier, denser and more prone to spread further south, the net results of monkeying around with this very uncertain situation could be a global disaster, and on a fast time scale too.

Posted by: Peter O'Donnell at December 13, 2009 7:59 PM

prentice just grew a set.

and here I was going to order some.

Posted by: cal2 at December 13, 2009 8:03 PM

Understanding the carbon credit scam . . . before it implodes.

"The head of the Asian Development Bank (ADP), Haruhiko Kuroda, warned governments that a failure to reach a climate deal in Copenhagen could lead to a collapse of the carbon market, which would hit efforts to deal with climate change make carbon traders very rich.

It helps of course to know that Mr Kuroda is best known in greenie circles for setting up the ADB Advisory Group on Climate Change – chaired by millionaire businessman Rajendra K. Pachauri, part-time chairman of the IPCC.

An interesting member of that Group is Dr Klaus Toepfer, Founding Director, Institute for Advanced Studies Climate, Earth System and Sustainability Sciences and former executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). And it was UNEP, of course, which set up the IPCC - which now has as its part-time chairman millionaire businessman Rajendra K. Pachauri.

One other member is professor Hironori Hamanaka, Chair, Board of Directors, Institute of Global Environmental Strategies (IGES). The IGES claims to be "a research institute that conducts pragmatic and innovative strategic policy research to support sustainable development in the Asia-Pacific region." It will come as no surprise, therefore, to learn that the organisation works very closely with TERI, whose Director-General is millionaire businessman Rajendra K. Pachauri.

Yet another is Ms Huguette Labelle, also a Board Member of the UN Global Compact organisation, the very same UN to which millionaire businessman Rajendra K. Pachauri belongs. Hilariously, Ms Labelle is Chair of Transparency International, the global civil society organisation "leading the fight against corruption." TI's mission "is to create change towards a world free of corruption."

The Board also includes professor Jeffrey D. Sachs, Director, The Earth Institute at Columbia University. This is the same Earth Institute which set up the Climate-Risk Center, inviting millionaire businessman Rajendra K. Pachauri to become its first Board Chairman."

Posted by: Fred at December 13, 2009 8:26 PM

Re: Hockey stick!

Looks like Tiger Woods ratings.

Posted by: Joe Citizen at December 13, 2009 8:32 PM

Times India: >>> Looming, again.

THE PANIC, er, sorry, the panic is palpable (nice MSM word).

"...the looming possibility that they could fail the world in its search for an equitable and scientifically adequate agreement to prevent disastrous climate change."

"Climategate – Copenhagen Is Heading For Collapse
December 14, 2009 — toryaardvark

In the Times of India today:

The ministerial round that began on Saturday only added to the fear that industrialised countries were not ready to budge from their stands and the negotiations were headed towards a collapse.

The Indian and the Chinese governments made it clear that their leaders, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Premier Wen Jiabao, were not going to come in at the end of the talks to crack the fine details, they would agree only if the industrialised world was ready for a deal by December 16.

Rumours flew fast and thick that if the US could not secure a weak “pledge and review’’ kind of agreement that it had been supporting for months, President Barack Obama may give the meet a miss."

Times India:

"PM Manmohan Singh, Wen may skip Copenhagen
Nitin Sethi, TNN 14 December 2009, 04:52am IST

COPENHAGEN: At 55 degrees and 43 minutes north, the winter sun sets early in Copenhagen, plunging the city into a cold grey gloom that only
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Christmas celebrations can lift. But on Sunday, the chilling news that climate change talks could break down completely spread far deeper dismay in the Danish capital.

Negotiators and ministers from 192 countries took the day off from formal talks to discuss the looming possibility that they could fail the world in its search for an equitable and scientifically adequate agreement to prevent disastrous climate change. The chances of a stalemate loomed large as governments went into informal huddles over the weekend."

Posted by: maz2 at December 13, 2009 8:37 PM


I have a digital edition copy of the Calgary Herald posted on my blog that mentions Lance's analysis of the CRU emails.

I had to take a trial subscription to find the piece so I didn't think a direct link would work.

Anyways its on my site.


Posted by: syncrodox at December 13, 2009 8:42 PM

Thomas Sowell video on Al Gore & Global Warming:

Posted by: Nemo2 at December 13, 2009 8:45 PM

It's like looking the Dow mid recession for only a ten year period.

You'd think the sky was falling and the economic world was coming to an end.

Then you pan out and see 85 years worth of dips along a steady incline.

It's called perspective,

and the warmists have lost all of it.

Posted by: biff at December 13, 2009 8:50 PM

jamie @ 7:38, good for you telling it like it is.

Posted by: Ken (Kulak) at December 13, 2009 9:10 PM

Tony Blair on global warming;

"When you come to very precise dates, percentages and so on [. . .] then the figures are somewhat more fudgeable."

Tony !! Kate has been saying and proving that for weeks now. Head up the newspapers' ass or something ?!

Copenhagen stalls decision on catastrophic climate change for six years

Posted by: ron in kelowna ∴ at December 13, 2009 9:56 PM

Tony Blair on global warming;

"When you come to very precise dates, percentages and so on [. . .] then the figures are somewhat more fudgeable."

Tony !! Kate has been saying and proving that for weeks now. Head up the newspapers' ass or something ?!

* Copenhagen Stalls Decision On Catastrophic Climate Change For Six Years *

Posted by: ron in kelowna ∴ at December 13, 2009 9:58 PM

re Edmonton sets record low temperature at -46C

Clearly the warming is worse than we thought.

Posted by: Halfwise at December 13, 2009 10:07 PM

Someone has been going through the data contained in the emails and produced another chart.

The actual yearly output numbers are in the email. So, I took the column identified as global average and plotted it. What a surprise.

Notice that the temperatures are declining and that we have yet to pass the warmth of the Medieval Warm Period.

Posted by: TimR at December 13, 2009 11:01 PM

jamie @ 738 - that's unbelievable. To even say something like that to you!

Again, what slays me is the fact that people still aren't willing to consider that maybe it's worth thinking about problems with the "global warming" mantra.

Even if you shove the data in their face, it seems not to matter. Sigh.

Posted by: Erik Larsen at December 13, 2009 11:46 PM

jamie @ 7:38, good for you telling it like it is.

I second Ken (Kulak) and Eric above, in congratulating you for standing up for facts. That teacher works for you and she should be held accountable by the parents who pay her salary.

Posted by: Jema54 at December 14, 2009 12:28 AM

Knacker asks:
Here is an even more serious question, what will people do if a cap and trade policy is established and we get to the $9/litre($36/gallon) as some pro-AGW but anti-"cap'n'trade" experts are predicting?

The same thing that smokers did when cigarette prices shot up; buy stolen cigarettes. At $9/liter, a 20,000 liter gasoline tanker has a value of $180,000. Assuming that someone hijacks said truck and sells the gasoline at half price, it is still worth $90,000 which will make stealing gasoline the next big criminal activity. Don't be surprised if temporary roadside gas stations suddenly appear as the truck hijackers sell off off their supply. I'm sure certain indian reserves will quickly see the moneymaking potential as they're immune to police "harassment".

It would also be worthwhile to tunnel to buried gasoline tanks from a lot next to a gas station and the criminal possibilities here are endless. There would be a large demand for armed security guards to ride in the truck and in vehicles behind and in front of the truck which would drive up the price of gasoline even further and make an armed attack on gasoline tanker trucks even more lucrative.

When the population feels that they're being screwed there would likely be little incentive to report gasoline thieves to police as this would mean the end of half-price gasoline. I'm sure the warmists have never considered this possibility in their plans just as they seemed shocked that organized crime would make a killing on the European carbon markets.

Posted by: loki at December 14, 2009 12:34 AM

Sunday also marked the coldest Dec. 13 in Edmonton’s history, said Environment Canada meteorologist Pierre Lessard.

Environment Canada recorded a frigid -46.1 C, or -58.4 C with wind chill, at the Edmonton International Airport at 5 a.m., Lessard said.

The old record of -36.1 C was set last year, he said.

“To break a temperature by 10 degrees is very exceptional,” said Lessard.

The temperature record from Edmonton’s city centre was also broken Sunday, said meteorologist John McIntyre. Environment Canada recorded a temperature of -36.5 C downtown at 8 a.m. Sunday, beating the previous record for Dec. 13 of -32.8 in 1882, McIntyre said.
From the Edmonton Journal

Posted by: Sylvanguy at December 14, 2009 1:26 AM

The conference is turning into the media circus that many expected ... complete with the "four horsemen of the apocalypse."

Hmm, lying signs and wonders, what happens right after those?

It sure ain't global warming. Well for some it is.

Posted by: Peter O'Donnell at December 14, 2009 4:43 PM

How do the climate-kooks explain the MWP when juxtaposed to today's "warming"?

Anybody? Link?

Posted by: Atlas is Shrugging at December 14, 2009 7:21 PM