Some time starting in mid November 2009, ten million teletypes all started their deet-ditta-dot chatter reeling off the following headline: "Hackers broke into the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit...."
I hate that. It annoys me because just like everything else about climate-gate it's been 'value-added'; simplified and distilled. The contents of FOIA2009.zip demand more attention to this detail and as someone once heard Professor Jones mutter darkly, "The devil is in the details...so average it out monthly using TMax!"
Update: I've updated the original page with new information. Many thanks to all in the comments and who emailed regarding the filenames. Cheers.
As has been pointed out to me, the filenames are Unix epoch timestamps. (Like, duh, Lance.) This invalidates certain parts of my analysis, but doesn't in any way invalidate my conclusions.
The point of the original information was to provide more circumstantial evidence pointing to the location of the email archives. The fact that the emails are named with epoch timestamps that relate to the creation date of the emails actually enhances this point.
You definitely do not want multiple machines naming files based on a Unix timestamp. It has to be a single machine because the opportunity for overwriting a file is simply too great.
Cheers,
lance
Canada’s Prime Minister must enthusiastically and ardently oppose any form of a "Cap, Tax, & Transfer” system which will devastate the Canadian economy, our jobs and our standard of living. Now that communism has been invalidated, “Climatism” is the new “ism” adopted by the extremists as their vehicle to increase taxes and transfer wealth similar to Trudeau’s National Energy Program. The "Cap, Tax & Transfer" system that left-plunging Harper and Prentice are advocating is a stealth strategy for an enormous, disingenuous, long-term tax increase on all Canadian households. "Cap, Tax & Transfer" would evolve around an economic Ponzi scheme that includes an enormous new source of tax revenue to the Canadian government to allow it to continue to expand into the private sector, demolishing thousands of high paying manufacturing and service jobs, result in the transfer of world power to the emerging global governance, would be a devastating disasters for our children's standard of living, and a overwhelming transfer of wealth by means of the Climate Change Fund (CCF) which is being established to transfer $10 billion annually to the nations ( many corrupt, some communist) of the world who repudiate creating their own wealth.
This tax increasing and wealth transferring vehicle would immediately massively increase the cost of goods and services such as gasoline, electricity and a wide range of industrial products. The increase in the price of Canadian goods would make them less competitive in world markets. Canadian firms would suffer in export markets and domestically in competition with goods imported from countries that do not impose such a high implicit tax on CO2 emissions resulting the massive manufacturing and service industry job losses.
The latest scientific evidence clearly illustrates that the climate has not changed in the last eleven years, and that the so-called “climate change” is a socialistic hoax to transfer wealth. Therefore, at this time our PM must not annihilate the Canadian economy just to please the left-wing extremists who insist on higher taxes and wealth transfers. British climate expert Anthony Cary reports that “climate science is in its infancy….only fools or rogues pretend to be sure of what is going on……Our climate models are barely predictive.” Therefore reasonable people would think that the first step must include research and informed discussions rather than relying on erroneous computer models which are based on left-bias assumptions and manipulated data by some rogue “scientists”. Step two would mandate the private sector including the investment community, possibly with tax incentives, to research, develop, produce and implement technology necessary, such as carbon capture and sequestration, to resolve any climate problems that might be scientifically and legitimately confirmed to be acute
It is becoming transparent that the so-called “climate change” panic is nothing more than a hoax by far-left wealth redistributing advocates. Unfortunately Canada does not have a small-c fiscal conservative PM, nor are small-c conservatives represented in the Conservative Party or the Canadian Parliament, so Harper will likely fully partake in the dismantling of the Canadian economy.
Posted by: machiavelli at December 7, 2009 7:58 AM"*Socialism is in fact nothing but the religion of the Stomach."
...-
"Copenhagen Offers Climate Warriors $470 Menu, 24-Carat Desserts
As eco-warriors crowd through Copenhagen urging restraint, a city famed for Michelin-starred restaurants with $470 menus and desserts covered in gold leaf may test their resolve.
The United Nations Climate Change Conference starts today; 15,000 delegates will be dining and deal-making in the Danish capital."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601088&sid=aKOIEXvQP1w8
*GUSTAVE LE BON. 1831 - 1931. HIS INFLUENCE. Socialism is in fact nothing but the religion of the Stomach. ...
www.fulltable.com/crowd/07.htm
A well reasoned piece.
Posted by: RW at December 7, 2009 8:12 AMThe suggests there's at least one person at CRU who is still committed to science.
Posted by: Mark Peters at December 7, 2009 8:17 AMJust now on cbc: eco-terrorists (greenpeace) are on the roof of Parl buildings in Ottawa! How the hell did that happen,and where was security?
Posted by: Sammy at December 7, 2009 8:17 AMnice work! lance by name, lance by nature
Posted by: rzr at December 7, 2009 8:18 AMChoo-ChooUN blathers, emits CO2 "in the face of the Climategate assault."
Best publicity ever from Choo-Choo. More, please.
...-
"'Climategate' at centre stage as Copenhagen opens
The 'Climategate' row immediately took centre stage at the Copenhagen climate summit today when one of the opening speakers went out of his way to defend the scientific consensus on global warming from the attacks of climate change sceptics."
"But the smooth run-up to the conference has been upset by a row over the publication of about a thousand e-mails sent by and to the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia which appear to suggest a deliberate attempt to skew the science of global warming.
In his opening address to the conference, Dr Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), mounted a passionate defence of the organisation's integrity and and objectivity in the face of the Climategate assault."
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6947199.ece
Posted by: maz2 at December 7, 2009 8:27 AMThe UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has promised to investigate the scandals, although its chairman said Monday that it provided no basis for questioning the science behind global warming.
Trust Us!
Climate science is set in stone and large tax grants.
Posted by: Fearless Leader at December 7, 2009 8:30 AMYes it definitely appears it came from a central source. Now there is still the possibility that the FOI office was hacked into....but it may be a leaker from the FOI office, who probably was disgusted by the process of flouting the law.
Here is another possibility. Which is more damaging, having the FOI release it, or releasing it yourself.
One way or another this is a distraction from content, and yes the focus of the carbonistas is on the illegality of the release to reduce its content value....just like I would advise if I was there PR advisor.
Challenge for the Skeptics is to focus on content, reduce the complex to some simple memes backed by the detail if anyone pushes. They also need two or three experts to appear on TV, Mann is doing interviews now...the PR point is if Mann is afraid of something he wouldnt appear on TV, but of course being questioned by a news anchor on detail wont happen, so he is safe.
A friendly, neutral media friendy face, none angry, none nasty needs to come forward to provide the air cover for the all the great work taking place within the blogosphere.
Posted by: Stephen at December 7, 2009 8:34 AMWell done, Lance.
Posted by: Tenebris at December 7, 2009 8:39 AMMadass Saddam's ghost haunts the CO2 fraudsters.
Canadian Mao Stlong's Oil-for-Food connection*.
Mao Stlong Strong is the Uncle Mo of Canadian "Liberal leader" Bob Rae.
...-
World Agenda: Oil-for-Food scandal 'a warning for all at Hopenhagen'
Delegates to the climate change conference in Copenhagen should remember the dread words “Oil-for-Food”.
World leaders plan to design global “Cap-and-Trade” system — which could grow to $2 trillion (£1.22 trillion) — to limit greenhouse gas emissions in a last-gasp bid to reverse global warming. Environmental critics such as James Hansen, the Nasa scientist considered the “grandfather of global warming”, have made conceptual objections to Cap-and-Trade, which they dismiss as ineffectual.
But even if the system is created, there are enormous pitfalls.
Key parts of Cap-and-Trade have a “corruption” warning written all over them in red flashing lights, because they are to be run by the United Nations."
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/world_agenda/article6947116.ece
*MAURICE STRONG - The U.N.'s Man of Mystery
Oct 11, 2008 ... Thus did Maurice Strong offer me a seat on his living room sofa. ... for almost $1 million, bankrolled by the U.N.-sanctioned regime of Saddam Hussein. .... He insists:...
www.david-kilgour.com/2008/Oct_11_2008_02.php
More whistleblowers should be encouraged to come forward in this fraud. I expect some are already in negotiations to do so.
Posted by: kdl at December 7, 2009 8:44 AMLance, great work. I just hope this whistleblower saved another wave of emails and documents to blow away these crooks. With the amount of money involved I am sure the person(s) involved are fearful for their lives.
We were discussing this at a couple of parties over the weekend and I was amazed at how many people knew little about this or even realized the implications of carbon credits and the leftist push for world government.
Posted by: Dave at December 7, 2009 8:54 AM...Meanwhile in MSM enabler land, here's a link saying it's those evil Russians who have too much to loose economically and don't care about their northern permafrost melting that have probably hacked in and stole the work of those poor and honest Scientists...
Via Bourque:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/was-russian-secret-service-behind-leak-of-climatechange-emails-1835502.html
Posted by: Right Honorable Terry Tory at December 7, 2009 9:06 AM"The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has promised to investigate the scandals, although its chairman said Monday that it provided no basis for questioning the science behind global warming. "
__
I believe their "investigation" is primarily to allow them to cook up some kind of story to make it all still look legitimate. It also helps to distance them from the scandal. The UN's IPCC along with the CRU have lost credibility.
Your explanation is quite plausible. The UAE legal office would be the likely recipient of the FOI and their legal staff probably asked the files be rounded up, collected to one place. The files probably came from the university mail servers, or their backup files.
I propose one addition track, the BBC was the FOI requester, and when they sat on the files for weeks, someone public released them on purpose, a whistle blower if you will. May have even been from the UAE legal office, because they sensed big trouble for the university.
Posted by: bill-tb at December 7, 2009 9:42 AMGet the kleenex out (To wipe your mouth after you regurgitate your breakfast), Vanity Fair has a article about Al Gore book containing a poem...Apparently written by the Goreacle himself!...
Be sure to read the article too and more so the comments afterwards: The whole thing must be coming apart at the seams as everywhere I read comments and it does not matter which side of the political sphere it comes out of, and we all know 90% of the media sphere is to the left anyway, the comments are all screaming SCAM!...I'm lovin it!
Here's the link: (Via Drudge)
http://www.vanityfair.com/online/politics/2009/12/al-gore-the-poet-laureate-of-climate-change.html
Here's the poem: (Untitled)
One thin September soon
A floating continent disappears
In midnight sun
Vapors rise as
Fever settles on an acid sea
Snow glides from the mountain
Ice fathers floods for a season
A hard rain comes quickly
Then dirt is parched
Kindling is placed in the forest
For the lightning’s celebration
The shepherd cries
The hour of choosing has arrived
Here are your tools
------------------------------------------------
40 years ago, Black Sabbath (The undisputed originators of heavy metal music and kings of doom) wrote songs about pollution and technologies dooming manking; NOTE HOW THE LYRICS ARE ALSO INTERTWINED WITH RELIGION WHICH IS VERY FITTING WITH TODAYS AGW CULT.
here are two famous ones:
"Electric Funeral"
Reflex in the sky warn you you're gonna die
Storm coming, you'd better hide from the atomic tide
Flashes in the sky turns houses into sties
Turns people into clay, radiation minds decay
Robot minds of robot slaves lead them to atomic rage
plastic flowers, melting sun, fading moon falls upon
dying world of radiation, victims of mad frustration
Burning globe of oxy'n fire, like electric funeral pyre
Buildings crashing down to a cracking ground
Rivers turn to wood, ice melting to flood
Earth lies in death bed, clouds cry water dead
Tearing life away, here's the burning pay
Electric Funeral
Electric Funeral
Electric Funeral
Electric Funeral
And so in the sky shines the electric eye
supernatural king takes earth under his wing
Heaven's golden chorus sings, Hell's angels flap their wings
Evil souls fall to Hell, ever trapped in burning cells!
"Into the Void"
Rocket engines burning fuel so fast
Up into the night sky they blast
Through the universe the engines whine
Could it be the end of man and time
Back on earth the flame of life burns low
Everywhere is misery and woe
Pollution kills the air, the land and sea
Man prepares to meet his destiny, yeah
Rocket engines burning fuel so fast
Up into the black sky so vast
Burning metal through the atmosphere
Earth remains in worry, hate and fear
With the hateful battles raging on
rockets flying to the glowing sun
Through the empires of eternal void
Freedom from the final suicide
Freedom fighters sent out to the sun
escape from brainwashed minds and pollution.
Leave the earth to all its sin and hate
find another world where freedom waits.
Past the stars in fields of ancient void
Through the shields of darkness where they find
Love upon a land a world unknown
where the sons of freedom make their home
Leave the earth to Satan and his slaves
leave them to their future in their grave
Make a home where love is there to stay
Peace and Happiness in everyday
HOW IRONIC THAT 20 YEARS OR SO AGO, BOTH AL GORE AND HIS WIFE TIPPER WENT ON A CRUSADE AGAIN'ST THE HEAVY METAL MUSIC INDUSTRY WHICH EVENTUALLY THE COUPLE ENDED WITH EGG ON THEIR FACES...TODAY GORE SEEMS TO BE WANTING TO WRITE LYRICS FOR BLACK SABBATH TO SING!
Lance ..that is an amazing post you have prepared.
The UN investigation is just fodder for the MSM to let us know that UN is on top of this, nothing to see, move along folks.
It was extremely difficult to watch an excerpt on CTV news with an interview of a John Bartlett(?) from Sierra Club last evening.Spin city. Instead of challenging the Sierra guy on his broad statements, the CTV anchor did the typical smile and nod.
News nets of course are giving Greenpeace the attention they want now at the Hill.
Posted by: bluetech at December 7, 2009 9:46 AM"Meanwhile in MSM enabler land, here's a link saying it's those evil Russians who have too much to loose economically and don't care about their northern permafrost melting that have probably hacked in and stole the work of those poor and honest Scientists..."
What's funny is that, while who did the hackingit and why is certainly a legitimate news story in its own right, it's also a complete aside from the central issue: the reliability of the data.
"Meanwhile in MSM enabler land, here's a link saying it's those evil Russians who have too much to loose economically and don't care about their northern permafrost melting that have probably hacked in and stole the work of those poor and honest Scientists..."
While who did the hacking and why they did it is certainly a legitimate news story in its own right, it's also a complete aside from the central issue: the reliability of the data.
Sorry, my 9:55 AM posting was a draft submitted in error.
Posted by: JJM at December 7, 2009 9:57 AMGreat post. Learned a lot about how this works.
Some speculation that the FSB is behind the leak:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/was-russian-secret-service-behind-leak-of-climatechange-emails-1835502.html
The article is written by an AGW fanboy, but suggests that Russia, being a cold nation with lots of resources, may be waking up to the scam.
Posted by: Bart F. at December 7, 2009 10:02 AMThe CBC opened up their radio news with the sound of wailing children from a U.N. agitprop video followed immediately by a particularly sanctimonious denouncement of Alberta.
Better don the high rubber boots people. The doo-doo is already ankle deep.
Posted by: Bart F. at December 7, 2009 10:08 AMFrom: "Ian Harris (Harry)"
To: list@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: Re: [ngp-list] Press Release 'Global Warning' talk establishes West Norfolk Green Party
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 10:24:05 +0100
. . .
We're looking at an *unprecedented* acceleration in temperature, and it's not due to a sudden lack of volvanic eruptions. Even if it turns out to be
naturally-occurring, who's willing to take that chance? We should be trying to wean ourselves off of unsustainable energy generation and use anyway.
Cheers
Harry
--
Ian Harris - "Harry" Telephone: +44 xxxx xxxxxx
Climatic Research Unit Email: i.harris@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
University of East Anglia
Norwich NR4 7TJ
It was extremely difficult to watch an excerpt on CTV news with an interview of a John Bartlett(?) from Sierra Club"
Difficult to watch? I found it impossible. The stupid interviewer tossed a softball and the equally stupid Sierra Clubster could only harp on the illegality of released emails while maintaining that the science was rock solid. Absolutely no mention of the doctored data.
Unfortunately, this is the kind of utter bullsh*t that the average joe is inundated with on TV. Although the average guy on the street can be excused for being overwhelmed by this crap, our politicians should know better.
If the media insists on interviewing the climate change alarmists, when will they quit lobbing softballs and ask a tough question?
Posted by: biffjr. at December 7, 2009 10:26 AMExcellent work Lance! It further reveals the idiocy of Babs Boxer's vindictive statements about hunting down the so called "criminals" responsible for "email-theft-gate".
Posted by: Mark R at December 7, 2009 10:40 AMLance,
This is a good analysis. It had to be an independent UEA FOI Officer who was applying due diligence in his auditing processes of CRU information. This information then would have been stored on UEA servers just for pure due diligence and independence reasons. I would also suggest that the audit information would have been placed under configuration and access control - meaning that the leeker must of had access priveleges.
Also, this would explain why the CRU had to state that the emails were authentic.
Good work Lance.
Another possiblitiy is that this FOI archive was prepared by CRU but they decided not to release. They may have left the zip file on an internal file server which was subsequently hacked.
Or, another senario (putting on the conspiracy hat)
CRU new it couldn't hide behind IPP for long and engineered a controlled release of these docs and emails in the hopes that the turmoil genrerated would assauge the skeptics so they would not have to release the truly damaging data. Pure speculation.
Perhaps a collective project needs to be started to help the helpless interviewers.
Assume one is interviewing an AGW advocate.
What are the 5 questions, with one follow up to each one, that need/should be asked, provide the back up documentation to the question, as in you should never ask a question that you don't know the answer to.
Posted by: Stephen at December 7, 2009 11:00 AMVery good read 'Lance'.
Posted by: Merle Underwood at December 7, 2009 11:11 AMA good (but short) piece in today's National Post by Lawrence Solomon;
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2009/12/07/lawrence-solomon-climategate-gang-is-writing-the-script-for-copenhagen.aspx
Posted by: Mark R at December 7, 2009 11:28 AMYeah, the "evil Russkie haxorz" story had me chuckling. Good job, fourth estate. Top notch.
Posted by: mojo at December 7, 2009 11:31 AMDrudge is breaking a story that Obummer is just going to ignore the house and senate and impose a COP15 deal thru some sort of executive power he holds via the EPA.
Anyone smarter than me on how the U.S. works able to comment on the consequences of him doing the big nose thumb at the houses of congress?
Posted by: Bart F. at December 7, 2009 11:37 AMThanks for the great info Lance.
Never really bought the line that the obvious leak was a 'hacker', but this confirms it.
If one were to say that the KGB/FSB iced Litvinenko with Polonium 210, that is a story which would be more likely and believeable and have their 'fingerprints' all over it.
I would buy into the inside leaker with privileged computer access story who posted on one of their own servers and 'let it out into the wild'.
This doesn't in any way mitigate the contents of emails, programs and data manipulation. The CO2 climate scam is good cover for governments around the globe to increase their tax take to feed the 'lumpen proletariat bureaucrats' ever increasing appetites on the backs of ordinary middle class and poor wage earners.\
CO2 is not gassing the planet, but we'll try and scare the bejesus out of everbody and have them running for the hills...
Oh the climate deniers!!!...Hunt them down eliminate them..."Beat the crap out of them"...
These clowns are behaving little better than goon squad antics.
This is such an empty, vacuous, over reaching towering wave of unadulterated bullshit reaching to the very heavens themselves, one has difficulty in suppressing the gag reflex.
As far as I'm concerned they can send all their clever machinations and taxing proposals straight back to Hell where they belong. I might add in the name of Father, Son, and Holy Spirit.
The whole "Hope 'n Whoring" lot should recieve no less than a lump of burning coal in their shoes, which beats freezing in the dark.
Oh and did I mention Merry Christmas?!
Cheers
Hans-Christian Georg Rupprecht, Commander in Chief
Frankenstein Battalion
2nd Squadron: Ulanen-(Lancers) Regiment Großherzog Friedrich von Baden (Rheinisches) Nr.7(Saarbrucken)
Knecht Rupprecht Division
Hans Corps
1st Saint Nicolaas Army
Army Group “True North”
Great job Lance. Just (once again) shows how idiotic journalists just take a meme and repeat it ad-nauseum without any kind of independent analysis.
Journalists make pond scum look smrt.
Posted by: James at December 7, 2009 11:41 AMWell folks, Copenhagen is here and conservatives watch with baited breath expecting our politicians to sell us down the river. To that I say, “don’t worry, PMSH’s got our back!”
Now, if we’re expecting fireworks I think we’ll be disappointed, but if we’re looking for nothing to happen then I think there will be reason to celebrate. It appears that PMSH is making a bit of an gamble, he’s decided to bet on President Obama’s weakness. Harper’s Gambit is as follows: PMSH understands that President Obama’s number one priority is passing healthcare reform. Harper understands that if President Obama signs a climate treaty, he will not have the political capital to pass such a treaty in the Senate. Furthermore, the tenuous Senate support for the Health Care reform bill would likely also eviscerate considering the smack down he recently laid on his base with the Afghanistan decision.
It’s not likely that President Obama will do anything on the Climate file except vote “Present”. PMSH should be able to deflect any criticism from the MSM by pointing to the fact that he simply followed the Fresh Prince of Hot Air’s lead. Conservatives may not be happy with the pandering to the AGW supporters, but I suggest thinking of it as “patronizing” them. We may hate the window dressing, but we should all be happy with the tangible results.
I guess it only "Whisleblowing" when your working for the left.
Posted by: bob at December 7, 2009 11:46 AMWhy on Earth would UEA want an investigation, if not to clean house? The University's administration
and Board of Directors, certainly know by now if the 'leak' was internal or external. They also know that the documents are genuine. Their first priority has to be limiting the damage, to the individuals involved.
This is a no-brainer for any CEO.
There are Alumni, with deep pockets, who are not amused one could assume...
"Avery: Are Politics Realigning for a Non-Warming Planet?
As the Copenhagen climate conference tirelessly discusses the “evidence of climate change,” it also asserts the need for massive energy taxes and energy “rationing” to prevent still more climate disruption.
That’s a bait-and-switch tactic. The discussion has never been about the planet’s historically variable climate. It’s always been whether humans caused climate change.
To date, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [1] has never offered any evidence of a “human fingerprint” on the modest (0.5 degrees Celsius) warming that occurred between the 1850s end of the Little Ice Age and 1940. They haven’t even given us a convincing story about the 0.2 degree Celsius warming that occurred from 1940 to 1998 (part of that tiny warming has disappeared). James Hansen’s predictions of massive overheating, given to the Senate in 1988, have been overtaken by a quiet sun and a telling drop in global ocean temperatures.
The public has noticed there’s been none of the long-predicted runaway warming — or any warming at all since 1998. They’re reading the Climategate [2] emails of the “consensus scientists” confessing they don’t know why warming stopped. That’s a huge confession.
The public cares less and less for tired scare stories of a parboiled planet.
Are the world’s political parties now suddenly realigning on the basis of non-warming? Have global warming taxes become the Greens’ defining moment?
Australia’s Senate has just thrown out its long-time Liberal (conservative) leader, Malcolm Turnbull [3]. He’d agreed with Prime Minister Kevin Rudd that Australia should suppress greenhouse emissions. In his place, the Liberals elected conservative Tony Abbott, who has often called man-made warming a fad. He knows heavy fossil fuel taxes would penalize the coal that provides Australia’s electricity and much of its exports.
The Senate immediately rejected Rudd’s cherished cap-and-trade plan, and Rudd may now have to call a snap Australian national election.
In Britain, both Prime Minister Gordon Brown and his Tory opponent David Cameron have long professed their belief in man-made global warming. But a recent London Times poll [4] found only 41 percent of Britons agree that warming is man-made and a serious threat. The top ten Tory bloggers doubt or dismiss the “scientific consensus” on man-made warming.
Mr. Cameron’s British Tory leadership mantle rests uneasily on his shoulders.
In America, Sarah Palin has already announced her divorce from John McCain’s man-made warming beliefs. In July, her Washington Post column [5] on “The ‘Cap And Tax’ Dead End” stated:
I am deeply concerned about President Obama’s cap-and-trade energy plan, and I believe it is an enormous threat to our economy. … Particularly in Alaska, we understand the inherent link between energy and prosperity, energy and opportunity, and energy and security.
Sarah may not be the next Republican presidential nominee, but she’s positioned well for a newly skeptical American public. An October Pew poll [6] found only 36 percent saying that humans cause warming. That’s down from 47 percent in 2006, in part because of the heavy energy taxes Congress has proposed to wring from a fossil-dependent economy.
A Rasmussen poll in January found only 21 percent of Republicans believed the recent warming was man-made. And that was before Climategate! Newt Gingrich is wrong-footed for such a warming-doubtful Republican Party.
The European Union says it believes — but its new emission reduction targets are non-binding and must be re-reviewed after the Copenhagen conference that promises failure on a new warming treaty. Coal-dependent Eastern Europe wants to keep its coal and reject imports of Russian natural gas.
Al Gore may be left holding a lot of unsold carbon credits."
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/avery-are-politics-realigning-for-a-non-warming-planet-pjm-exclusive/?print=1
Superior job, lance.
NOVEMBER 20, 2009
The director of Britain's leading Climate Research Unit, Phil Jones, has told Investigate magazine's TGIF Edition tonight that his organization has been hacked, and the data flying all over the internet appears to be genuine.
In an exclusive interview, Jones told TGIF, "It was a hacker. We were aware of this about three or four days ago that someone had hacked into our system and taken and copied loads of data files and emails."
Just another chapter in a career of lies and deception by Dr. Phil Jones.
The whole "hacked' meme is Phil Jone's invention.
Posted by: Oz at December 7, 2009 11:57 AMThanks to Lance for a very interesting analysis. It seems clear to me that the entire FOIA2009.zip file resided on a machine somewhere in the UEA network before being released into the wild by a leaker.
What still puzzles me is the fact that most, or at least a large part, of the material in this file is so damaging to the warmist cause. One would think that if the file were really gathered for the purpose of compliance with an FOIA request, that it would be full of mundane, and quite non-controversial documents and e-mails.
Is it possible that this file represents the stuff that CRU deemed necessary to withhold from any FOIA releases? If I were a party to some of the stuff we saw in those e-mails, I'd sure want to cover my tracks.
Posted by: gordinkneehill at December 7, 2009 12:06 PMLance; "I've been a Unix, Windows, OS X and Linux systems and network administrator for 15 years."
And Jeffrey Simpson? Anna Maria Tremonte? Oh ya, they don't do science/facts - just sky-is-falling-stuff.
Posted by: ron in kelowna ∴ at December 7, 2009 12:09 PMFeel free to comment here:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/climate-change/dirty-image-puts-canada-in-climate-doghouse-at-copenhagen/article1390657/
Comments are more about Alberta-bashing than substantive arguments regarding the validity of climate science or the economics of Copenhagen.
Posted by: Michael at December 7, 2009 12:27 PM"Comprehensive network analysis shows Climategate likely to be a leak
7 12 2009
This lends cred to WUWT’s previous analysis done by our own Charles the moderator: The CRUtape Letters™, an Alternative Explanation,
Climate-Gate: Leaked
by Lance Levsen, Network Analyst – courtesy of Small Dead Animals"
http://wattsupwiththat.com/
Posted by: maz2 at December 7, 2009 12:32 PMThose of us in the sysadmin biz know that most (75-80%?) of the attacks on a network come from within.
Posted by: Edward Teach at December 7, 2009 12:33 PMTwo Days of Infamy:
December 7, 1941, Japan's attempt for hegemony in the Pacific.
December 7, 2009, United Nations attempt to destroy democracy and western civilization.
Posted by: Ken (Kulak) at December 7, 2009 12:50 PMGoreacle Report: The Gore Effect.
The Extortionists Duke It Out.
Big State vs Big Criminals.
...-
"The Climate Mafia
Fraudulent Emissions-Trading Schemes Rob German Tax Authorities
The Kyoto Protocol introduced a scheme for trading emissions certificates as a way to help reduce CO2 emissions. German tax authorities are now investigating almost 40 companies that traded certificates for allegedly taking advantage of loopholes in sales tax laws to bilk the taxman out of hundreds of millions of euros.
German Environment Minister Norbert Röttgen has hardly been in office for much more than a month, but he's already choosing his words for dramatic effect. "It's about the way we live, and it's about survival," Röttgen said last Thursday before the German parliament, the Bundestag, referring to the climate summit beginning Monday in Copenhagen. At the summit, the nations of the world will search for ways to reduce the CO2 emissions behind global warming. One of the tools to be discussed is the trading of emissions certificates.
In Germany, though, it is precisely this instrument that is causing a huge headache for Röttgen, as dozens of tax offices across the country are investigating shady emissions trading companies. All of the companies in question maintain accounts with the German Emissions Trading Authority (DEHSt), an arm of the ministry Röttgen heads. According to DEHSt head Hans-Jürgen Nantke, since September, his agency has "received official requests for assistance in cases relating to suspected sales tax fraud from various regional tax offices and tax investigation offices."
The authorities are investigating questionable transactions in Germany's central emissions trading registry. As in any other EU country, public utilities and industrial enterprises maintain accounts in the registry, which provides them with a certain number of emissions credits. Under the 2005 Kyoto Protocol, the emissions of climate-harming carbon dioxide are to be reduced as efficiently as possible with the help of this method of trading emissions certificates. According to this system, companies that invest in new, eco-friendly technologies no longer need all of their certificates and can, in turn, sell them to others -- and at a steep price.
Current prices for these certificates are set on exchanges, such as France's Bluenext, the ECX in London, the EEX in Leipzig and, more recently, the Greenmarket segment of the Munich Stock Exchange. At the moment, the right to emit one ton of CO2 into the atmosphere is worth about €14 ($21). In the first half of 2009, the volume of trade in emissions certificates in Europe alone already amounted to €40 billion.
Going after the Climate Speculators
The high-stakes deals being made with certificates are attracting more and more speculators. While investment banks, such as Goldman Sachs, and US-based hedge funds are speculating on emissions certificates, small trading companies are now trying to bilk tax authorities out of the sales tax that is part of many of these certificate-trading deals. Tax authorities are investigating "an estimated 30 to 40 companies," says Nantke, adding that some of these companies are based abroad.
Investigators are apparently also interested in bank transactions." (more)
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,665594,00.html
Posted by: maz2 at December 7, 2009 12:50 PMThanks for your work. Once again showing people who "know" tend to be be free marketers and classical liberals (e.g.Conservative at the Canadian federal political level); Socialists are invariably Sciolists, whereas brokerage parties such as the Liberals in both Ontario and at the Federal level contain many people who feel proximity to power means entitlement. Cheers; Mike Sr.
Posted by: Mike Sr. at December 7, 2009 12:59 PMhttp://www.thestar.com/comment/polls
looks like this one might be going wrong with the potential to go even more wrong.
Posted by: Curious at December 7, 2009 1:09 PMEvery one is assuming it was a one act play ... why not 2? Inside and outside man (may be the same person). If I was trying to cover tracks, it would never be a single act play.
Posted by: ∞² at December 7, 2009 1:10 PMTHERE IS OIL IN THE ATHABASCA RIVER!!!
It has been seeping into the enviroment for millions of years. There are bacteria that have evolved to digest this oil.
The tar sands were dirty long before modern humans came along.
The development of this oil could be considered the cleanup of natures own oilspill.
it appears that the number assigned to the mail files is a unix time_t value in decimal - the number of seconds since january 1, 1970.
my spot checks have show that they match on year, month, day, minute, and second; the hour doesn't match exactly (probably a timezone/DST thing).
i've mentioned this sporadically here & there.
My understanding is that the Montreal Stock Exchange, for the past couple of years, is remaiking itself to trade carbon credits. It sees itself making billions brokering the exchanges, which also explains why Quebec is -- hook, line and sinker -- hell bent on supporting these bogus climate (a.k.a. wealth transfer) deals.
While I'm writing this the EPA is now empowered by the anointed one to impose its draconian carbon reductions. Tool bad the brain-dead floozy making the announcement doesn't set the example and stop exhaling.
Posted by: Mike T at December 7, 2009 1:36 PMLance wrote: "... I believe that the numbers of the filenames correspond to the order that the emails were archived. If so, the numbers that are missing, represent other emails not captured in FOIA2009.zip."
The email file numbers are standard UNIX epoch numbers. UNIX counts time as the number of seconds since Jan 1, 1970. This was something realized day one and as far as I'm aware, first published at MarketTicker Forums.
Posted by: wingwalker at December 7, 2009 1:38 PMI know this will not be a popular view here, but I'm going to say it any way.
I studied engineering. Unlike physicists, who insisted (for example) that baseballs don't curve and bumblebees can't fly, we deal with reality. And I struck out enough to verify the former myself.
Our first and foremost duty was to provide things that work - bridges that stay up, airplanes that don't fall from the sky, electricity that's there when you need it. By and large, I think over the last 150 years, we've made huge strides in making all these things better. But I've always thought we had another duty as well.
That is to do more with less. Less steel and concrete to build an apartment tower, less weight and bulk in packaging, less time and energy to transmit information. As a telecom engineer, I know how successfully we've achieved the latter.. in the early 1970's, it cost $0.56/minute to call Vancouver from Toronto; today, it costs only a few cents a minute to call from Toronto to India, and that's in dollars that have devalued by almost 50%.
So, I actually do think that conservation, increasing energy efficiency, and reducing pollution are worthwhile goals. My family has a cottage on Lake Champlain. As a child, I could row out in the morning, and in half an hour, land enough fish for the family breakfast. After a huge increase in the use of phosphate fertilizers by nearby dairy farms, we not only noticed that fish levels were dropping, we got periodic instances of blooming algae that made the lake impossible (OK, unpalatable) to swim in. To their credit, various Quebec governments intervened, and the lake is now bouncing back.
So, do I think CO2 emissions are the major cause forcing global warming? No. But do I agree that we should be moving more to nuclear, which creates more energy for less waste (and I include hydro in that equation - not for places like Niagara Falls, but for the whole-scale flooding of northern Quebec) - Yes. Should we be encouraging the use of hybrid cars? I think so - our nanny drives one child about 5 kms to school, and maybe drives 10 more kms a day for shopping. She won't even drive on highways, so she actually uses more gas per km than people who do use the highway. Could she live with a completely electric car? No problem. In fact, most people in the GTA (which, last time I looked, is still about 30% of all Canadians) could easily have one car with is either entirely electric or a hybrid, and have one car which uses a gasoline engine for those trips to Florida or Maine.
My point is this: Doing less with more is good. Do I agree with Copenhagen goals of cap and trade, financial penalties, transfer of huge amounts of money to China and India (who both will increase their emissions far more in the next two years than Canada hopes to decrease ours in ten), and the general bankrupting of colder, northern countries? Not a chance. But do I agree with a general philosophy of finding better ways to do things while using fewer resources?
ABSO-F***ING-LUTELY. There was a quaint term we used for that.. oh, yeah. Progress. Not even 200 years ago, most people on the earth worked in agriculture. Getting enough to eat was a huge problem. Now, in North America and Europe at least, obesity and diabetes are huge problems based on our abundance of food, while fewer than 2% of people work in agriculture.
So, people, please - let's take a tempered tone. Yes, we're all opposed to false science, bovine politicians, and enormous hypocrites like FruitFly and AlBore. But the general goal of finding ways to do more with less, to increase the productivity of everyone, to encourage the talents of all our population (which is why I'm particularly opposed to fundamental Islam, which seems to suggest that the ONLY duty of women is to produce children, and which, as the father of two brilliant daughters, I think is enormously short-sighted and intellectually bankrupt), and to make everyone richer as a result would seem to me to be a laudable goal.
Disagree if you wish. But, as I've posted here before, while I think exercises like "Earth Hour" are stupid and futile, I also think the response of many here to waste energy to frustrate the "Earth Hour" claims are equally stupid and futile.
I know there's a lot of engineers here. Let's stay true to our twin heritages: find new and better ways to do things, and find ways to do things with less. Mo Strong and his ilk notwithstanding, there is no way for our planet to survive unless we spend more time on making ourselves more efficient.
Seriously, can any of you, Climategate ignored, not agree that the high speed telecom switching systems, fibre optics, and personal computer advances, have not increased our communication capacity by a number which I personally don't feel fit to put a magnitude on?
In the end, my message is this: Fight Copenhagen, embrace conservation. Doing more with less, stop ignoring "tragedy of the commons" effects, and find better ways to do everything. In spite of my reading of the Globe, the Star, and watching CTV, I still believe most Canadians would endorse this type of "religion". If you think I'm wrong, I'm truly sorry.
Posted by: KevinB at December 7, 2009 1:46 PMWingwalker wrote: "... as far as I'm aware, first published at MarketTicker Forums."
http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=118702&page=4
Last post on the page.
Posted by: wingwalker at December 7, 2009 1:46 PMLANCE! Way to go, dude! Its always easy to see the difference between an MSM "analysis" and one done by a guy who knows what he's doing.
You missed all the pop culture tie-ins though. Evil hackers with superpowers, end of the world, noble scientists, blah blah blah. Clearly you'll never write for the MSM. Good on ya.
Congrats for this nice effort at hastening the demise of the know-nothing mainstream weenies.
Posted by: The Phantom at December 7, 2009 1:50 PMBravo Lance - good work and well written even I understood it. Thanks for taking the time to reveal this information. I agree with your conclusions. When I was a student at a BC university some years back - I discovered some very interesting files on the ftp and wondered why the heck they were on there for everyone to see. I discovered them quite by accident and mostly because I did not know what I was doing and stumbled upon them innocently; however, being the curious sort - I would do some in depth poking around for the fun of it...I did not bother copying anything but there were rough drafts of exams on the server, not my area of study and I would not have taken advantage of the info even if it were relevant to me, but I was surprised nonetheless. I am by no means a hack or techie. People seem to think they just have to give a file a boring name and then nobody will bother to look at it.
Posted by: Thanks Lance at December 7, 2009 2:01 PMKevinB, your argument is the ground state most of us operate from who comment here. Doing more with less is indeed progress. Also standard issue common sense, as well as blisteringly obvious and therefore left unsaid most of the time.
That's not the debate. The debate is having the freedom to do what you want, or not. The excuse is "the environment", but the purpose is to control -you-.
I prefer to make 'em work for it, myself.
Posted by: The Phantom at December 7, 2009 2:08 PMI think virtually everyone here agrees a clean environment is a goal worth paying a reasonable price for. Greater efficiency of fossil fuel use is a goal worth striving for.
No one really disagrees with that.
The thing that has me and so many others upset and what the analysis by Lance makes clear and what Kate's Bottle Genie clearly shows;
CARBON DIOXIDE IS NOT THE PROBLEM. THE FRAUD THAT IS CARBON CREDITS IS THE CULPRIT !!
And yet the climate alarmists, with the whoring of the media, spins that CO2 is pollution. It is not !
The whole point of climate gate, as Lance proves, is
THE COVER UP !!
The United Nation "scientists" have admitted in emails and in fudged data that there is no link between CO2 and global warming.
The environmentalists should try and convince the Earth's inhabitants to use energy more efficiently. It would be easier than stomping on an essential gas.
Posted by: ron in kelowna ∴ at December 7, 2009 2:18 PM"I know this will not be a popular view here, but I'm going to say it any way."
KevinB
Kev,
I'll go on a gamble here and say you are dead wrong...I think the vast majority of SDA readers and posters will AGREE with your position. Common sense mostly prevails here and yours is just that: common sense.
I'll go a bit further by saying that it is wealth that creates innovation which you prescribe. Cheap fossil fuel was and still is THE driving force for prosperity and human advancement at this time. So is nuclear power like you say. The enviromovement has all but black balled nuclear energy though. Without wealth there is no advancement.
Copenhagen is set to destroy wealth by further stressing the middle class...That is why it must be stopped. It has nothing to do with the planet or its lifeforms well being, it's man's greed and thirst for power that has reached an apex never seen in all of humankind's history IMO. This is the equivalent of Ceasar, Khan, Napoleon or Hitler dream of world domination and control. The free people of the world are being attacked and most don't even realize it yet.
If the EPA in the US is truly going to declare today that carbon dioxide is a dangerous gas it will confirm that the war is intensifying and that climategate is just a temporary set back.
If the environment has become a religion, it is connected to the church of Satan and not of God.
Posted by: Right Honorable Terry Tory at December 7, 2009 2:20 PMI just received email response from Environment Canada to the email I sent to Jim Prentice. Did anyone else receive one?
No acknowledgement of the of the "leak" - disappointing!
Standard IPCC line!
Posted by: Lorenzo at December 7, 2009 2:30 PMJust in time for Copenhagen.
"EPA: Greenhouse gases a public health threat"
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/12/07/epa.greenhouse.gases/index.html
That's what you get when you have an administration stuffed with leftards.
Next, deniers will be a public health threat, I suppose.
Posted by: Sounder at December 7, 2009 2:33 PMKevinB. I can only speak for myself, but it appears that you have stereotyped the readers and posters at SDA. I do not recall reading a post here that stated pollution is good and doing more with less is bad. Pollution and climate change are two completely different subjects - which is the crux of the debate, in my view. Who isn't for clean rivers, lakes, streams and oceans-many who post here are outdoors men/women.
The problem is pretending all will be solved by a cap and trade agreement - selling C02 shares. I know of very few industries that are not "green minded" - even the oil and gas industry spends tens of millions on keeping environmental impact to a mini mun. Exceptions would be China, India and a few other supposed developing nations who completely ignore doing anything about pollution because they are poor and want Canada and other "industrialized" nations (by the way we are no longer an industrialized nation, but rather a technological one) who are by far cleaner than they, yet want us to give them billions to clean up their act. The fact is the world is much less polluted now than it was before, the so called environmental disaster has already been averted.
The problem or debate is really the loss of our human freedoms in the name of environmentalism - the rights millions of Canadian soldiers died for ensure we would not lose any of them and their death would not be in vain. The fanatics are running the show - they believe humans are the problem and that population control is the answer and that is putting it diplomatically - what these fanatics really want is complete control of our everyday lives: our reproduction, , how often we shower or sponge bath, where we live, what and if we can drive, what we can eat (you mentioned obesity and diabetes) how long we can live and whether or not we deserve medical care should we become terminally or otherwise ill, not to mention all our hard earned money, and even our thoughts and ideas are to be controlled; especially the language (words) we can use without penalty. In short, its about money and power. Environmentalism has turned into an excuse to literally enslave the entire population of the world, preferably willingly through evironmental terrorism - scaring the pants off people, literally threatening their lives and livelihood with lies. I hope this sheds some light for you Kevinb.
Posted by: Stereotyped at December 7, 2009 2:40 PMKevinB - I don't know how you can seriously think that your [very well written] contribution to this forum would "not be popular". Aside from mocking Earth Hour I really can't remember anyone here denying the value and legitimacy of conservation, while most go on at length of how frustrating it is that the AGW fanatics are so anti-progress, and anti-science.
"Hacked" just never made any real sense.
You hack into a network and spend who knows how long sorting through the terabytes of data that a place like the CRU would have and pick out a tiny, select 160 meg worth?
It was obvious to this ol sailor that someone with inside knowledge of who, what and where had to have a hand in the zip file.
Posted by: AtlanticJim at December 7, 2009 2:50 PMThe email file numbers are standard UNIX epoch numbers.
Ah. I was thinking mailserver msgID's, but that makes more sense.
Posted by: mojo at December 7, 2009 3:10 PMHere's a theory:
AS we know from the e-mails, Jones threatened to destroy stuff rather than hand it over.
Perhaps FOIA2009.zip was a file created to park all the most damaging stuff in a safe place. Then all the harmless stuff could be released if need be.
The whistleblower inside CRU then released the file.
KB
Furthermore to RHTT's point, GWB made the excellent point in S'toon that: economies that are not functioning well are not innovative. That means that the R&D required to advance technology depends on a thriving economy that depends on affordable energy; therefore, hampering the worlds most innovative economy by raising the cost of energy will retard R&D and technological advancements.
In a nutshell, only a RETARD would believe that increasing the cost of living will result in more R&D and technological advancements!
KevinB; No disagreement here of your pov. In fact I'd also agree that the occasional commenter goes over the top with 'piss-in-the-soup' type hyperbole, but that's what it is, hyperbole. In the same way that most hunters and fishermen/women are active conservationists, there are always a few spoilers. Slaughtering bears for their gall bladders or slaughtering Bald Eagles for their feathers certainly go against the grain of society in general and hunters in particular.
Me? I'm just fed up being lied to, manipulated, and generally screwed over by every level of government including their bastard offspring, the Crown Corporations and their ilk.
My favorite line:
"I don't need to be told to conserve energy, I'm just cheap!"
Posted by: Right Honorable Terry Tory at December 7, 2009 3:51 PMkevinb - as noted, most of us agree very much with your views on the protection of the environment. And please, don't confuse pollution and CO2.
Lake Champlain, on another note, is being cleaned up, not simply by the Quebec government but by the federal Canadian govt - and the State of Vermont and the US federal govt. Harper, in particular, has been very active in an agenda of Clean Water.
What we are against, is the transformation of an agenda of a valid, science based environmental responsibility, to a religious cult that is based on a basic assumption that Man is Sinful; that his Sins will result in an apocalyptic end; and that Salvation can only come via a reduction of our economic mode, and also, an enormous transference of wealth to industrializing countries.
This religious cult, with its key narrative of Man the Sinner, Apocalpytic End, and Redemption by turning away from Material Goods - operates within the template of all religious cults from time immemorial. They all follow the same narrative.
It acts as a cover for a political agenda to reduce the industrial and economic capacity of the West. There is nothing wrong with increasing the industrial capacity of the other nations; indeed, this is vital and necessary. BUT such an agenda should not deplete and harm the West- and as noted, such an action would destroy the basis of freedom and innovation in the West; the middle class..
And that's what AGW is about; it's a religious cult on the surface; and a cynical and malicious political agenda at its base.
BartF- that same question was on FOX the other day; the Senator replied that Obama has to acknowledge that the Executive is not in charge of law-making; Congress is - and Obama doesn't have the constitutional power to ignore Congress. We all know that he's tried to turn Congress into a rubber stamp; that he denigrates and condemns any who dissent from him - but he's not as powerful as he thinks he is.
Posted by: ET at December 7, 2009 3:54 PMThank-you very much, Lance. I followed your explanations without a problem. I am not an expert on the transmissions of the internet so I am comparable to most internet users, we do know how to USE the technology, we don't know how it works! If Canada had a curious or responsible msm, this information that you have provided would have been a well paid contract and would have been featured on the front page of every newspaper!
The one most impressive 'fallout' of this egregious 'hopychangie temperature' scandle is the generosity of so many knowledgeable people offering information, facts and news to those of us who would otherwise have no access to the information or the means to digest the same. Kate, here at sda, and her amazing posters and commentators have offered their expertise to all of us - free of charge. Meanwhile we pay the fools that work for CBC/other msm(with exception of Fox News) to do NO work, offer NO insight and provide NO expertise. This gift of time and true concern for fellow human beings will never be forgotten by the likes of me. Thank-you from the bottom of my heart - this is truly the most wonderful Christmas gift possible from all of you to all of us.
Posted by: Jema54 at December 7, 2009 4:09 PMPatrick Armstrong, that makes perfect sense. Who better to gather all the incriminating data and documents than the incriminated.
Posted by: AtlanticJim at December 7, 2009 4:12 PMKevinB,
I too would agree with most of what you've said. I think the best way to convince people to conserve just about anything is to price it at fair market value. Currently Ontario grossly subsidizes their electricity prices. When "it"'s cheap people use a lot of "it" (see "free" health care...). Energy prices go up, people use less, find ways to conserve etc....market forces do work wonderfully well.
Posted by: jcl at December 7, 2009 4:33 PMFirst, let me say that I'm gratified that so many of you have responded saying that you are in support of what I posted. At the risk of sounding a bit dyspeptic, there are times when negative comments about electric/hybrid cars, reducing emissions, etc. seem to be the norm. If you'll indulge me, I'll add a few more comments:
ET: I do agree that it was joint effort from four levels of government that have helped Lake Champlain. However, there is an enormous causeway just over the Vermont border that restricts waterflow to the north to a very significant degree. Add to that the fact that Mississiquoi Bay is extremely shallow (you can wade out over 100 yards at the very north end, and not even be up to your knees), and that the heavily supported Quebec dairy industry had so much phosphate laden run off that the "Pike River" hasn't had any pike in it since I was a teen, and even though I haven't been a fan of the provincial government for years, I have to acknowledge they took the point on this issue. I'll also add, and maybe Tim from Vermont could support this, it's my understanding that most Vermont farmers used less fertilizer, which is why the southern portion of the lake appears to be cleaner.
And Terry Tory: I'll admit I haven't given this a whole lot of thought, but I think there's a serious question - does innovation cause wealth, or does wealth cause innovation? In one sense, it's indeed a "chicken and egg" question, because I believe the two are irretrievably caught up with each other, but I also remember my grandmother telling me there's no one as inventive as a lazy man.
At any rate, if I offended anyone, I apologize. I do kinda hope that when the next Earth Hour rolls around, people will just shrug, rather than willfully waste power and fuel.
Posted by: KevinB at December 7, 2009 4:52 PM"You definitely do not want multiple machines naming files based on a Unix timestamp."
Well, what generally happens with email archival is that each user has their own spool and that archive spool is generally located in one place. So it is possible to keep a spool per user of every email they sent and received that is different than the spool they use for reading their email.
But the file names were probably created by whoever created this archive for release to cover their tracks. On most email servers, the file name of the actual email is generally a function of the message-id. If the files had been left alone with the names in the original format, it might be easy to determine which server they were snagged from. Each machine having its own sequence of message-ids. Leaving them intact would be a clue as to where the messages came from.
The filenames given in the released archive can be easily created with a bash do loop where the Date: header is parsed, converted to Unix time, and the message renamed to the (unix-date).txt then you go down the entire list of files using "touch" to change the date of all the emails to some random date. This is apparently what is done with the emails because all of the file mod dates are Dec 31 2008 even though the last email is dated Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:17:44 -0000
Now what is interesting here is that very date on the last email. The date on the email is in GMT (-0000). But the date stamp generated for the filename is 19:17:44 which is 5 hours ahead of the time on the email header. GMT +5 puts the computer's local time zone in Russian Zone 4 in winder or Zone 3 in summer time.
I am suspecting that the machine that parsed Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:17:44 -0000 generated 1258053464 as the time. That is where things get interesting.
Posted by: crosspatch at December 7, 2009 4:55 PMI believe that this 'hacking' wasn't reported immediately because they knew it was an inside job and immediately went into damage control. It was not reported to the police until it was made public,and then they came up with the 'hacking'. Damage control,once again.There is something rotten in Denmark,and it ain't just the free hookers.
Posted by: wallyj at December 7, 2009 5:05 PMKevinB, the issue is totalitarian global control.
At this juncture, showing support for Earth Hour instead protesting it sends the wrong signal to those who will be measuring our sheep-like compliance.
When the Climate Crisis is a dead issue, with our side winning, I'll think about whether or not conservation as a political statement makes sense.
Forced rationing through legislation, coupled with punitive taxation, is not something we should encourage our politicians to attempt by observing a Communist initiative like Earth Hour.
Posted by: Oz at December 7, 2009 5:49 PMYou say, "It simply isn't reasonable for the FOI Officer to have kept the collection on a CRU system where CRU people had access, but rather used a UEA system."
Yet after the leak the CRU took their internet facing system down, apparently as a security precaution, at first replacing it with an 'emergency' site, and now with a page on the UEA site.
So did they know the FOIA folder was accessed from their CRU site? Or have they just been in a panic and confused themselves?
Or is taking the CRU site down an attempt to misdirect us?
Posted by: Tim Skinner at December 7, 2009 6:12 PMOz:
At this juncture, showing support for Earth Hour instead protesting it sends the wrong signal to those who will be measuring our sheep-like compliance.
When the Climate Crisis is a dead issue, with our side winning, I'll think about whether or not conservation as a political statement makes sense.
Thank you for making the negative case so concisely.
Posted by: KevinB at December 7, 2009 6:59 PMHey Lance, have you given any consideration to the idea that the documents might have been attachments to the emails and that's why they are so disorganised?
Posted by: Alan Shore at December 7, 2009 7:14 PMHi Alan. Regarding attachments being the ./documents dir? No,I don't think so.
1. For one thing, email attachments don't include directories, only files.
2. Attachments are dealt with very differently by what is essentially a text only system (email). The are always encrypted into a text format: Base64, Mime, Quoted-Printable, etc. They would have to be extracted from the email and converted on the fly and dumped into the ./documents directory.
3. It would be a serious pain in the butt for the writer of the collection program.
Cheers,
lance
You're only half right. Wealth is necessary for innovation, but it's only half the equation. Necessity, or demand is the other half.
For example, let Western Canada focus on innovation in drilling and uranium mining, and let the Japanese work on windmills.
The only people interested in wind tech in a fossil fuel rich environment are the ones who have figured out how to harvest taxpayer subsidies. There is little chance of advancing the technology in such an environment.
Lance thanks for the quick response.
1. Zip files contain directories.
2. If you have a look at some of the emails you will note that they reference as attachments some of the files that are in the documents folder. Eg:
1199994210.txt
Attachment Converted: "c:eudoraattachtrend_profiles_dogs_dinner.png"
and
1159800386.txt
Attachment Converted: "c:documents and settingstim osbornmy documentseudoraattachcommunicating_climate_change.pdf"
Attachment Converted: "c:documents and settingstim osbornmy documentseudoraattachPOSTER SNC.pdf"
Attachment Converted: "c:documents and settingstim osbornmy documentseudoraattachRulesOfTheGame.pdf"
3. It's pretty clear that if it was a hack the files have been selected which means someone's read them, so it wouldn't be all that hard to save any attachments. That could also explain why the timestamp information of all the emails and some of the documents has been modified.
Posted by: Alan Shore at December 7, 2009 7:51 PMYes, zip files contain directories. So do tar's, cpio's, gzips, 7z's, arcs, rars, lzps and probably a few more that I'm missing.
I guarantee you that whoever wrote the code to export those emails didn't take into account the numerous types or archives. That person would have had to then manually go into those files and for each type of archive, extract it.
Remember, I'm arguing that the process is automated, so that process would be automatic. Your _interactive_ email program doesn't even do that for most of those I listed. It asks for an external program.
Could they have been dumped into a dir and post-processed, sure. However that still ignores the fundamental point I make about the documents directory that there are files missing. Not just missing, but excluded.
2. Alan, Look real carefully at those Attachment Converted Lines. What do you think wrote them, the mail client, the mail server, or the email archive program?
3. Selecting all of one persons email in or out is simple with the perl module I linked to...which calls Mail::Message on a per message basis.
Cheers,
lance
KevinB, I agree with the other posters above that the vast majority of posters to this site agree with you in that we should be good stewards of the earth and produce society's needs in a non-polluting manner.
You made some great points.
In my full time career of farming for 40 years, I and my neighbours have continually made changes to our farming practices when "cleaner" options were discovered and made available. For example, there is no dirt flying around through the air in this neck of the woods.
That being said, however, I have to agree with Oz when he stated that "At this juncture, showing support for Earth Hour instead protesting it sends the wrong signal to those who will be measuring our sheep-like compliance."
If we all give in to those that would regulate every aspect of our lives we will go into a dark age such as the Russians experienced under the Soviets.
I think your theory may be over complicating what probably was just stupidity on Jones part.
Jones compiled this lot himself as a house keeping exercise resulting from a FOI request.
He intended to conceal them, not reveal them should he be forced to comply with FOI.
The folders contain many files that could be embarrassing to an impartial scientist, but that would not have been subject to any FOI request, eg. RulesOfTheGame.pdf.
The directory structures are just what you would expect were you to have a clean-up of sensitive data from more than one workstation to a network drive.
The e-mail names are just a time stamp unique to the receiving mail server.
Being a network directory, it would have been accessible to all users subject to network/share policies.
Academic users are particularly ignorant of security requirements necessary to prevent access to networked drives from inside or outside the university.
My guess is another UEA staff member came across the info already collated (but not zipped)and copied to a flash drive.
Virtually impossible to detect as opposed to an upload/download/hack which would leave a trail of evidence hard to hide.
There is no need for complex theories and data compilation progs etc, just one (justifiably) paranoid man wanting to remove files he didn't want seen from various UEA workstations (which he would have had full access to).
Just my tuppence worth;)
Posted by: Chris S at December 7, 2009 9:26 PMKate:
You're only half right. Wealth is necessary for innovation, but it's only half the equation. Necessity, or demand is the other half.
I don't want to get in a huge argument here (a prolonged discussion is an entirely different thing), but how exactly does one calculate demand? When Columbus set out across the Atlantic, there was already the Silk Road, and the routes discovered by Prince Henry to the far East for their spices and tea. I don't recall, although I'm fair to be corrected, that Spain was particularly rich in the late 1400's, so how and why Columbus was able to gain Isabella's favour (and please no Tiger jokes) and launch what I think today would be considered a fairly expensive and risky expedition was allowed to happen. Was this a risky chance by Spanish government that turned out to be immensely profitable, which contrasts hugely with our modern view that government can't pick winners? Was it just luck?
I mean, I look at JFK's determination to put a man on the moon. In itself, going to the moon truly meant nothing to us. However, because of the demands of miniaturization and power/payload calculations, one could easily say that his decision led the way to PC's, the Internet, and the incredible communication ability we have today. Unintended consequences, to be sure, but important consequences nonetheless.
But one could say, easily, that in 1961, the US was the most wealthy and powerful place in the world. So, again, I ask, not as a aggressive question, but as an intellectual one, do we need wealth before we innovate? Or does our innovation lead to wealth? I really think it's an interesting question, and I'd really like to hear some in depth responses from our confreres.
Posted by: KevinB at December 7, 2009 9:36 PMKevinB, another thing. One of the threads above discusses the closure of a steel mill in order to meet some imaginary emissions standard. This story reminds me of something one of my uncles was shown when in 1982 he visited relatives living in a Kolchoz not far from the city of Orenburg, which is located in the foothills of the Ural Mountains.
They showed him a factory built on the banks of a small river in the 30s or 40s by the Soviets. It was brick construction, about 3 stories tall and covering a number of acres. It was empty, had no windows and had never been put into production and had sat like this for 50 years by the early 1980s.
The reason for never having been put into production was that nobody had given thought as to how this building was to be powered. This was a rural area and had no electrification or rail lines.
This sort of thing is what many of the people posting on this site fear if this socialistic nonsense wins out. So occasionally the rhetoric gets a little heated and silly.
Posted by: Ken (Kulak) at December 7, 2009 9:38 PMLance,
One thing that doesn't work for me here is that Paul Hudson was sent some of these emails on October 12. As the last emails in this batch were from November 12, he obviously wasn't sent the emails by somebody who had stumbled upon this cache of FOI collateral. That leaves two possibilities:
1) There are two leakers. One who sent the emails to Paul Hudson and another who later stumbled upon this cache and zipped it up for the world to see.
2) There is one leaker who had access to emails before October 12 and again after November 12. Perhaps a sysadmin.
Maybe I'm missing another obvious explanation here.
Posted by: Will R at December 7, 2009 9:40 PMAlan, I didn't expect you to go and slag me over at Watts when we were having such a nice discussion here.
FWIW, do this at your terminal:
$> cd ./FOIA/mail
$> grep -i attachment ./*
- pick one attachment file name, copy it into your buffer
$> find ../documents/ -name
where filename == paste from your buffer.
Email me the ones you find.
Alternatively, grep the mail directory for the filenames in ./documents.
Now stop being an idiot about attachments and timestamps that have _nothing_ to do with what I wrote about.
Cheers,
lance
This is a really well done job of laying out the issue of the e-mail cache.
Good for you Lance .... I suspect you will be referenced and quoted often in the near future.
Will, I don't think Hudson had the emails, I think he verified their veracity by saying he'd _received_ some of the emails question, as in To:
Several of the Oct, 09 emails reference him.
Cheers,
lance
KevinB; re the 'space race'...that was an anomaly. It was a) a political response to the Soviet threat of dominance and b) a military program wrapped in civilian guise. The aerospace industry saw the demand and AND the potential for huge economic gain, and responded with enthusiasm!
If it had been left solely to the private sector, raising capital etc., it simply wouldn't have happened.
those Greenpeace ads are a bit pretentious on one hand, but then again, to have effective advertising sometimes you gotta make some waves
Posted by: Wes Hammond at December 8, 2009 12:22 AMGreat analysis. Thank you. Here's a slightly different take:
They are the residual emails of a batch which had already been *sanitized* from the CRU systems, in order to illegally prepare an incomplete response for a future FOIA request. The emails in question were *not* going to be provided under a FOIA request.
These are deleted emails from a sanitized batch which were foolishly or purposely archived and/or discovered by an insider or whistleblower (perhaps the sanitizer himself). The insider then had pangs of conscience or an axe to grind and released them surreptitiously.
Machiavelli describes Anthony Cary as a "climate expert" but he is no such thing. He's an employee of a foreign government who is a high commissioner (ambassador). That doesn't make him an expert. And from what I can find under Google, he continues the time honoured tradition of British high commissioners by overseeing an operation best known for its collection of gossip about Canadians and little else.
Posted by: Guy Friday at December 8, 2009 7:56 AMI like jallen's theory on this. If this was merely a collection of material for an FOI request, it would have more email regarding the collection and analysis of their data products. Those emails are missing, and what's left is dirty laundry.
Posted by: Will R at December 8, 2009 8:36 AMAwesome work, Lance -- Totally linking this! :)
Posted by: Brian L. at December 8, 2009 3:31 PMClever stuff;now all we need to to know is,who's been sacked from the CRU since last month?
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