Climategate: The Smoking Code

I would characterize the WUWT analysis not so much a smoking gun but rather a:

SIEGE CANNON with hot barrel!

Cheers

Hans-Christian Georg Rupprecht, Commander in Chief

1st Saint Nicolaas Army
Army Group “True North"

Our local radio pundit here in Kelowna was all over the Mt Kilimanjaro ice thing, thanks for the info to send to him. He is a "true believer" of the AGW/CC religion, love the line;

"That is not science, that is religion with math equations."

That is the exact crux of the matter. Science has become the god of this age, and these are the high priests who are making up the rites and rituals for us to placate this god. "Just give us your money so we can appease this very angry god who will send storms and dry up the land and wash away the mountains. We know what to do, trust us, for the gods have spake...but just to us loyal ones who really understand!!!!

At least the fudge factor array had the correct number of elements so those nasty 'Oooops!''s didn't appear all over the final graphs. :P

Cjunk
That a good link. Just sent it to my son who is a programmer and computer analyst. It's rather tragic that so many people are concentrating only on the emails. There is so much more in the code.

From the comments at Cube Antics (linked in Robert Greiner's WUWT post):

[Comment from] rainfade, December 4, 2009 at 3:41 AM
see: documents/osborn-tree6/summer_modes/pl_decline.pro
;
; Plots density ‘decline’ as a time series of the difference between
; temperature and density averaged over the region north of 50N,
; and an associated pattern in the difference field.
; The difference data set is computed using only boxes and years with
; both temperature and density in them – i.e., the grid changes in time.
; The pattern is computed by correlating and regressing the *filtered*
; time series against the unfiltered (or filtered) difference data set.
;
;*** MUST ALTER FUNCT_DECLINE.PRO TO MATCH THE COORDINATES OF THE
; START OF THE DECLINE *** ALTER THIS EVERY TIME YOU CHANGE ANYTHING ***
;
…
;
; Now apply a completely artificial adjustment for the decline
; (only where coefficient is positive!)
;
which is accompanied by a similar array, etc. as well as:
;
; Now fit a 2nd degree polynomial to the decline series, and then extend
; it at a constant level back to 1400. In fact we compute its mean over
; 1856-1930 and use this as the constant level from 1400 to 1930. The
; polynomial is fitted over 1930-1994, forced to have the constant value
; in 1930.
Fudge that data!

[Reply from] Robert Greiner, December 4, 2009 at 9:41 AM
Thanks for the information. Those comments are consistent with the code we’ve all been looking at. I tried to stay away from putting any actual text because, while damning, doesn’t necessarily “prove” anything. However, I’m glad you added it because it adds context and completeness to my post. Thank you.

It looks like an internet version of wack a mole.

Every time a warmist point of view is expressed it gets shredded in the comments.

Well who knew you could make a computer lie.

Hey! DAVID SUZUKI!
WHAT SAY YOU!

How can we lift his rock?

Where are the cops when we need them?
Can someone please taser Mann and Jones 5 times?

"This means that all of those billions of dollars we spent as a global community to combat global warming may have been for nothing."

Two points on this quote:

1. How many lives could have been saved had this money been spent on real-life problems, like AIDS and malaria in Africa, for example?

2. Given point #1, above, when will the criminal charges be laid against the AGW hucksters?

Folks, when talking to friends, family and associates who continue to believe in AGW, if nothing else continue to hammer home point #1.

Slightly off topic but I had a question with regards to Saint Al cancelling his speech in Copenhagen. Would there have been a question and "answer" session?

I know that this is rare for his greatness to deign to allow this but he may have originally thought that it would be a very friendly audience that would lob him softballs.

With climategate, there may actually be some people asking real questions and we know Saint Al hates real questions!

Here's yer money quote right here:

"That is not science, that is religion with math equations."

I suspect Suzuki is loading up his bong with some Kitsilano cabbage right now, trying to make the pain go away.

Al Gore is undoubtedly curled up in the fetal position, sobbing uncontrollably on the floor in his mansion.

With climategate, there may actually be some people asking real questions and we know Saint Al hates real questions!
Posted by: Chris in the Bridge at December 4, 2009 12:21 PM

I doubt there would have been a Q&A session, unless the event was invitation only which it was not as I understand. In any case, I think you're correct: it's pretty clear High Priest Al is lying low as Climategate unfolds.

Well well.

from wiki
In 2009 David Suzuki was awarded the Honorary Right Livelihood Award.[22]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_Livelihood_Award.

They usual give it out December 9th.
Wonder why its early this year?

Hey I pointed this out November 25th, where's the love:

http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/archives/012729.html

This is just BEAUTIFUL. If the proxy shows a decline, just add a ramp to the values:

;mknormal,yyy,timey,refperiod=[1881,1940]
;
; Apply a VERY ARTIFICAL correction for decline!!
;
yrloc=[1400,findgen(19)*5.+1904]
valadj=[0.,0.,0.,0.,0.,-0.1,-0.25,-0.3,0.,-0.1,0.3,0.8,1.2,1.7,2.5,2.6,2.6,$
2.6,2.6,2.6]*0.75 ; fudge factor
(...)
;
; APPLY ARTIFICIAL CORRECTION
;
yearlyadj=interpol(valadj,yrloc,x)
densall=densall+yearlyadj
Posted by: jcl at November 25, 2009 2:00 PM

... a very friendly audience that would lob him softballs ...

Uhhh ... Al Gore is a guy who thinks the temperature inside the earth is millions of degrees.
I doubt that there are any softball questions beyond "What did you have for breakfast?" that he could answer correctly.

As much as I want to see proper science being done...
This is only proof that a programmer wrote code to adjust data.
It doesn't say that the code was used to create a final publishable research paper.
I remember the code I, my friends, and my colleagues used to write in High School and University, and it wasn't, um, formal or professional. It was descriptive, however :)
Some of the comments posted further down in the linked site illustrate this. The code may have been a test. It may have been done as part of a project to see what adjusted code would look like. It may have been initiated by the programmer, or his boss or the CRU director. It may have been written in a heated frenzy after somebody ate the last donut, and the programmer wanted to create "dirt" on somebody.

The point being, if the code and emails are taken out of context, the anti-AGW case is as poisoned as the AGW case.

Comeoutcomeoutwhereever

http://www.davidsuzuki.org/blog/DSF1_10150910.aspyouare

Nice try, Freddy, nice try.

Where is the Caps Lock on here?

Att: Minister Prentice.

Here it is: "MORE NEWS FROM COPENHAGEN".
...-

"Gropenhagen: Prostitutes Offer Free Climate Summit Sex
4 12 2009

You just can’t make this stuff up. The Hookers Union fights back.

MORE NEWS FROM COPENHAGEN – -
Prostitutes Offer Free Climate Summit Sex

Copenhagen Mayor Ritt Bjerregaard sent postcards to city hotels warning summit guests not to patronize Danish sex workers during the upcoming conference. Now, the prostitutes have struck back, offering free sex to anyone who produces one of the warnings.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/0,1518,665182,00.html

Seems easy enough to find:"
http://wattsupwiththat.com/

... and here is the best part, we'll get a ...-

"Excerpts:

Copenhagen’s city council in conjunction with Lord Mayor Ritt Bjerregaard sent postcards out to 160 Copenhagen hotels urging COP15 guests and delegates to ‘Be sustainable – don’t buy sex’."

Comeoutcomeoutwhereeveryouare

http://www.davidsuzuki.org/blog/DSF1_10150910.asp

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl//6750042.html

Delightful maz2...this just in for the "Gropenhagen" CONfab...maybe now they will check out the data prostitutes at NASA as well!!

Houston: we have a problem – it’s snowing!
4 12 2009

From the “it’s weather not climate department” – I never thought I’d see this today on the header of the Houston Chronicle:

The snow is the earliest on record. Of note is the fact that in 2008, it snowed in Houston on December 10th. Place your bets for next year.

Houston braces for about 2 inches of snow

Some in Houston area may even see half a foot of the white stuff

By ERIC BERGER and PEGGY O’HARE
HOUSTON CHRONICLE

Houston this morning broke a record with the earliest snowfall ever recorded in the city’s history.

Forecasters are still hedging their bets on the amount, but say the most likely scenario is 1 to 2 inches of widespread snowfall through the day. Some areas could get up to a half a foot.

Light snow already was falling downtown and in other areas before 8:30 a.m. Other forms of precipitation — such as rain, freezing, rain, sleet and hail — also have been reported. Houston’s main weather recording station at Bush Intercontinental Airport reported at trace of snow at 8 a.m., meaning Dec. 4 will go down as the new record.

Cheers

Hans-Christian Georg Rupprecht, Commander in Chief

1st Saint Nicolaas Army
Army Group “True North"

No its more than a nice try, its the truth. A group of people behaving badly doesn't mean they ultimately did anything wrong, from a legal standpoint. We need to be analytical, scientific, lawyer-like in proving that this is a smoking gun. O.J. got off because all of the data proving his guilt was tarnished and unusable. The last thing the anti-AGW is people looking back 5 years from now saying, "remember the Mann incident? All the deniers went crazy over nothing!"

The global warming crowd likes to claim that the HARRY READ ME code doesn't mean much because it supposedly wasn't used in any climate models, despite the fact that someone labored away at this "stray piece" of code for around four years. I have a hard time believing that it's just a "coincidence" that when you run any data through it you wind up with a hockey stick curve!

Fudge factors are not unique to climate research; they're employed all the time to unemployment and inflation stats. It's well known that the Clinton administration introduced statistical "tricks" to push down the unemployment rate, for obvious reasons. If you measured unemployment or inflation the way it was measured circa 1980, you would have significantly higher numbers than you do today. But fudging the numbers saves the government untold sums of money, and can promote the perception that the economy is doing much better than it really is.

Fudging numbers to produce frightening global warming scenarios helps to keep money flowing to the select tribe of academics who produced the original studies, and to fund dream-come-true research into vastly expensive geo-engineering mechanisms that purport to remove all that nasty CO2 from the atmosphere.

As far as the political classes go, fudging these numbers gives them an excuse to raise taxes on a plethora of human activities in the name of preventing the apocalypse.

Colin from Mission BC asked....

1. How many lives could have been saved had this money been spent on real-life problems, like AIDS and malaria in Africa, for example?

Obviously difficult to say with certainty, but many answers are available in Bjorn Lomberg's book The Skeptical Environmentalist written in 1998 so references are to the Kyoto protocol. He makes the point that Kyoto will achieve very little related to global warming.

I quote from page 318..."The cost of such a Kyoto pact(excluding developing countries), just for the US, will be higher than the cost of providing the entire world with clean drinking water and sanitation. It is estimated that the latter would avoid 2,000,000 deaths every year, and prevent 500,000,000 people becoming seriously ill each year.

This is all academic, because we know Kyoto was never implemented and Bill Clinton never signed on for the US. But the answer to your questions is that millions of lives could be saved and much suffering reduced if only peoples attention could be turned to real problems as opposed to imaginary problems.

In our real world, in BC we have a bozo premier who has drunk the climate change kool-aid and is forcing hospitals and schools to buy carbon credits at the expense of health care and education, dings us on our Hydro bills for carbon and public transport and is pushing down a path of building windmills and micro hydro at exhorbitant energy costs.

Carbon Dating, the Circus, the CO2 Orgy, the Copenhagen Snuff.

Minister Prentice: Watch yo steps.

Liberal Iffy is watching.

Hans says: No beer in heaven; ya gotta drink it here.
...-

>>> "Spending so much time away from home gives delegates plenty of opportunity to continue their discussions in a more intimate manner outside the conference hall.

This is known in COP circles as carbon dating.

Bill Hare, an Australian climate scientist and COP veteran, met his wife, one of the German Government’s climate change negotiators, at the Kyoto summit in 1997. “I’m aware of several other couples who met at these climate meetings. It’s not surprising given how much time we spend together,” Hare says. “People refer to us as the dinosaurs because we have been attending the talks for so long.”"

"Greenwash: The last chance to stop global warming...until next time

The Copenhagen summit is part of a never-ending circus that is about so much more than just climate change"

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/science/eureka/article6935211.ece

Fred R - You make a good point, and 90% of the time, I'd agree with you. Unfortunately, this situation is not going to be solved with logic, or sound research. This is like a clash of religions, and the winner will be the one who convinces more people to become followers. Since neither side is likely to be disproven, in a legal sense, it will probably come down to which side provides people with a more comfortable resolution. It's becoming obvious that the AGW crowd wants it's followers to wear hair shirts, and flog themselves. That isn't going to win many hearts and minds.

what happened to our little troll of a few weeks ago that calculated the heat loss equation and got a million degrees?

was it T?

O.J. got off because all of the data proving his guilt was tarnished and unusable.
~Fred R.

No.
OJ got off because they selected a jury which was, to a man, dumb as a box of rocks or, like the CRU, was not focused on the factual information as opposed to some sort of agenda.

What kind of jury could it have been to have claimed to have not been exposed to the media coverage of OJs slow speed flight from justice in the white Bronco, claiming he was going to commit suicide the whole ride, when they were chosen from a pool of people living in what is arguably the Media Capitol of the World?

My wife and I saw the white Bronco chase as it unfolded live while sitting in a bar in Calgary thousands of miles away.
It was on the TV for months afterward and the trial for the Crime of the Century was over a year later.

There was a mountain of evidence.
The actual rarity of the gloves was enough to convict OJ, forget the blood analysis.

I still want to know what is causing the ice caps on mars to melt ? Last consensus was there was no SUV's there.

Good stuff cjunk.

C'mon man, the glove didn't fit, they had to aquit; and, he did rush for 2000 yards. C'mon man!

It is somewhat amusing that the NASA and WH "spokespersons" claim these e-mails are irrelevant due to the independance of the agencies.
The e-mails prove that Mann, Cru, IPCC and GISS are in reality NOT INDEPENDANT but rather co-conspiritors.
Then they refer to the "thousands of researchers"---meaning the IPCC---which is actually the Claimate-Gate CRU of 42 with the rest activists, social engineers(???), media types and computer programmers.
The Climate-Gate CRU provided ALL the propaganda that others refer to as research.
What the defacto DENIERS try to hide is that the entire "science" of AGW/CC is made-up Junk Science (Science Fiction).
The "OJ trial" was a close anology to this. The jury......not impartial!!

This so-called "climate gate" is a dishonest smear campaign.

In 3000 stolen e-mails, denialists manage to find one sentence which the denialists then misrepresent and misconstrue.

Big tobacco waged a 50 year disinformation campaign, before finally even they had to concede that smoking causes cancer. Apparently none of you have learned the lessons of big tobacco, because Big Oil's disinformation campaign has brainwashed you just as surely as a 1950s Marlboro Man.

"Kevin at December 4, 2009 10:38 PM
This so-called "climate gate" is a dishonest smear campaign."

That's right Kevvy, and that is why Phil Jones has resigned, because he is in the middle of a smear campaign! No facts, just because his good name is smeared all over the internet and print media. (the MSM and television are still a little slow on the upswing)

Have you read any of the information contained in this blog. Take a little time out of your weekend and learn a little bit about what has been exposed and how much of this info has not been reported or marginalized by the media. You have been drinking the kooliad for a little too long.

Happy reading!!!