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November 27, 2009

The Sound Of All Hell Breaking Loose, Pt. 10

The hidden decline.... found!

"Contrary to Gavin Schmidt’s claim that the decline is “hidden in plain sight”, the inconvenient data has simply been deleted."

And what an IPCC reviewer had to say...

Show the Briffa et al reconstruction through to its end; don’t stop in 1960. Then comment and deal with the “divergence problem” if you need to. Don’t cover up the divergence by truncating this graphic. This was done in IPCC TAR; this was misleading (comment ID #: 309-18)

Not that it mattered.

Bill Illis (who occasionally guest authors at Watts Up With That) explains what "Hide the Decline" means, in the comments;

The scientific rationale to “hide the decline” can only be that the tree rings started showing spurious cooling trends starting in about 1960 – there was no actual cooling, it is just that the tree-rings started showing a spurious decline in 1960 for non-climatic reasons.

There could be an actual explanation for this which might include pollution, acid rain, aerosols blocking sunlight, increased forest fire fighting creating increased competition from other trees, CO2 fertilization creating increased competition etc.

But none of these other rationales have been shown in the science to produce a spurious decline. In fact, the NH forest cover increased substantially after 1960. There is no substantiated rationale.

And if the “other” rationale was to just show “actual measured temperatures” instead of the proxy measurements, then the truncation should have started in 1850 rather than the day tree-rings started showing the divergence.

So, if there is no science backing up the truncation starting in 1960, then it is truly “hiding the decline” and it is just attaching a line going up instead. It is also admitting that tree-rings are not temperature proxies after all. They are just mathematical constructs designed to produce a hockey stick.

Science should never be “illogical”. It should never make you say to yourself “Well that makes no sense whatsoever, especially considering the evidence. In this case, you will have to prove it which you have not done so far.” Yet, no proof is offered or demonstrated.

Posted by Kate at November 27, 2009 9:30 AM
Comments

I am laughing my butt off at some of the hand twisting & angst of the warmies. In one breath they are screaming that "its nuts to think that all these scientists are a conspiracy", but in the next breath blaming all the realists of being in the pocket of big oil.

This is falling apart quicker than Lizzy May scarfing a hotdog.

Posted by: robins111 at November 27, 2009 9:50 AM

Have you read my new book "Hockey Sticks for Dummies."

Posted by: Ghost of Ed at November 27, 2009 10:03 AM

Is anyone making some T-shirts for this yet? I'll order one!

Posted by: Luke at November 27, 2009 10:14 AM

"its nuts to think that all these scientists are a conspiracy"
Those would be the same people who called 9/11 a Bush conspiracy. Those are the suck and blowers

Posted by: Ownshook at November 27, 2009 10:15 AM

And people called me crazy.

Posted by: Justin Hoffer at November 27, 2009 10:26 AM

Wow, 1600 was a tad cool wasn't it?

Posted by: Leeky S. at November 27, 2009 10:27 AM

Is this scam and it's being blown wide open a case of 'no one has a good enough memory to continuously lie and get away with it forever'? Especially when there are many lairs "working" together with everybody watching out for their back.

Mistakes will be made - sooner or later. Perhaps this was not a hack at all but a case of a password(s) landing in the wrong (right!) hands.

An interesting read - Climate Audit comments, especially by 'Mr Pete'. (near the top)

Posted by: ron in kelowna ∴ at November 27, 2009 10:40 AM

Tree rings are exceptionally good proxies for temperature----once you start getting above 500 Deg F. Then they very clearly show that it's hot, damn hot!

They will also soon be excellent proxies to determine AGW supporter concentrations as we hang all these suckers up by the neck.

Posted by: Frenchie77 at November 27, 2009 10:41 AM

"but in the next breath blaming all the realists of being in the pocket of big oil."

Don't forget that big government is still bigger than big oil and can still kick big oil's ass! They want to question someone's objectivity because they're in the pocket of "big"? Well they're in the pocket of a much larger "big" and consequently they're own objectivity is even more questionable!

Posted by: Edward Teach at November 27, 2009 10:41 AM

The U.S. Senate's leading global warming skeptic has sent letters to several climate change scientists and to the inspectors general of various federal agencies notifying them to retain breached documents and e-mails that he says prove researchers are manipulating data to make the case for global warming.
The move by Oklahoma Sen. James Inhofe, the top Republican on the Environment and Public Works Committee, is part of his push for an investigation into whether the U.N's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has fudged the science on global warming.

In one e-mail, published in The Washington Post, a scientist wrote, "We can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't."

("it is a travesty that we can't.")

No it is not-

Its called the.. 'GORE EFFECT' ... LOL

Posted by: Fearless Leader at November 27, 2009 10:48 AM

The bottom line on all this warmist defensive speculating and butt covering quackery is that climate 'science' is far from 'settled' and is, in fact, a very new and imprecise science riddled with highly speculative (suspect) theory to fill in huge gaps in the knowledge base.

Certainly nothing solid enough there to warrant hysteria and massive transfers of wealth, productivity and sovereignty to global bureaucrats.

G'head, ask me if I'll be paying any tax that uses this fraud as a premise.

Posted by: Jim at November 27, 2009 10:51 AM

The NRO has a symposium of essays of the impact of the leaks:

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ODhjYjYwNGM5YzAyYmUxZDUyN2ZjOTE4Mjg2NzA5ODc=

Posted by: Gord Tulk at November 27, 2009 10:52 AM

That code should never have been written in Fortran. The should have used C+.
That + sign would have come in handy.

Posted by: Ghost of Ed at November 27, 2009 10:52 AM

Although the SooZookies of the world will not be sucking-back soon, it will quickly become politically unpalatable to throw wads of cash at this. It may be a slow painful death but nonetheless AGW is dead. JMHO.

Posted by: glasnost at November 27, 2009 10:52 AM

Prime Minister Harper wouldn't sCRU us over in Copenhagen would he?

Posted by: Marko at November 27, 2009 10:56 AM

So a whole bunch of the 'premises' that they have been using to justify global warming turn out to be false. What a surprise!

Posted by: Maureen at November 27, 2009 10:57 AM

Hide the decline,

Flim flam MANN!

Hide the decline,

Flim flam MANN!

FARC attacks the global climate!

Klima TERROR! Arrest ze perpe-traitors.

ClimateGate a failed 'rent seeking' plot.

Cheers


Hans-Christian Georg Rupprecht, Commander in Chief

1st Saint Nicolaas Army
Army Group “True North"

Posted by: Hans Rupprecht at November 27, 2009 10:59 AM

Wow, 1600 was a tad cool wasn't it?
~Leeky S.

GA (22:08:54)@WattsUpWithThat :

1556: ice sheets extended two miles around the British Isles. There was ice from Dover across to Calais.

1682: All major rivers in Europe froze.

1684: the lagoons of Venice froze solid (in the Mediterranean!)

1779: New York Harbour froze. You could walk from the mainland to Manhattan Island.

Posted by: Oz at November 27, 2009 11:16 AM

This is only a piece of a much larger puzzle.
The larger picture emerging is ugly and chilling.
The connections with the UN George Soros,Uncle Mo, Jean Cretian, Bob Rae, Even the likes of the lowly Jeniffer Lynch, The MSM, Big Bussiness and Big Government... I am sure you can add to this list.
Now Just Imagine there was no internet.

This is our power.
It is also a vulnerability.

Posted by: orvict at November 27, 2009 11:20 AM

1962/1963 happened to be the time of the coldest winter in England. No wonder they wanted to suppress data from the 1960s.

Posted by: tranio at November 27, 2009 11:27 AM

Liberal Citoyen Dionky kneecapped by Mrs. Dion: Bamming Kyoto.

"*When Dion was chosen to lead the party, Krieber told Maclean's magazine her husband was useless around the house: "He can't be trusted to change a light bulb, especially halogen." Hmm."
...-

"'Cap and Trade Is Dead'

So declares Oklahoma Sen. Jim Inhofe, taking a few minutes away from a Thanksgiving retreat with his family. "Ninety-five percent of the nails were in the coffin prior to this week. Now they are all in."

If any politician might be qualified to offer last rites, it would be Mr. Inhofe. The top Republican on the Environment and Public Works Committee has spent the past decade in the thick of Washington's climate fight. He's seen the back of three cap-and-trade bills, rode herd on an overweening Environmental Protection Agency, and steadfastly insisted that global researchers were "cooking" the science behind man-made global warming.

This week he's looking prescient. The more than 3,000 emails and documents from the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit (CRU) that have found their way to the Internet have blown the lid off the "science" of manmade global warming. CRU is a nerve center for many of those researchers who have authored the United Nations' global warming reports and fueled the political movement to regulate carbon.

Their correspondence show a claque of scientists massaging data to make it fit their theories, squelching scientists who disagreed, punishing academic journals that didn't toe the apocalyptic line, and hiding their work from public view. "It's no use pretending that this isn't a major blow," glumly wrote George Monbiot, a U.K. writer who has been among the fiercest warming alarmists. The documents "could scarcely be more damaging." And that's from a believer.

This scandal has real implications." (more)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748703499404574558070997168360.html

Kypto Bammed:

"*Liberal attack by Dion's wife not sign of desperate housewife
By PETER WORTHINGTON"
http://www.torontosun.com/news/columnists/peter_worthington/2009/11/27/11946691-sun.html

Posted by: maz2 at November 27, 2009 11:27 AM

Used to be, they made hockey sticks out of wood.
Then they made hockey sticks out of carbon fibre.
Now, they are making them out of bullshit.

Ain't science* wonderful?


*Of course it isn't real science. AGW is an advocacy movement, not science.

Posted by: gordinkneehill at November 27, 2009 11:28 AM

Boy, is my Conservative MP going to get an ear full at our upcoming brunch meet next weekend!

The fact that Harper has decided to go to Copenhagen, I still thinly accept for the reason we still have a minority and that the MSM enemy is watching every move he makes hoping to give Lieberals any ammo BUT at some point, some free world leader will have to put on his frickin pants and start telling the truth here.

In this bizarro world we now live in, it seems oppressed nations like Russia are more truthful.

I know Harper knows that GW is a crock of shit.

Posted by: Right Honorable Terry Tory at November 27, 2009 11:35 AM

The article below needs some help in the comments section.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20091127/trinidad_091127/20091127?hub=TopStoriesV2

Posted by: Ken (Kulak) at November 27, 2009 11:40 AM

I know Harper knows that GW is a crock of shit.
Posted by: Right Honorable Terry Tory at November 27, 2009 11:35 AM

Why is he creating a carbon tax then?

Maybe just for kicks? Or maybe the Liberals are making him do it?

Posted by: hardboiled at November 27, 2009 11:48 AM

Might want to extend that graph backwards to show the medieval warm period when they could grow different varieties of grain in Greenland.

Posted by: Ken (Kulak) at November 27, 2009 11:48 AM

I still thinly accept for the reason we still have a minority and that the MSM enemy is watching every move he makes hoping to give Lieberals any ammo BUT at some point, some free world leader will have to put on his frickin pants and start telling the truth here.
~Right Honorable Terry Tory

On this issue, the minority government and the MSM are not excuses.

All Harper has to do is use his bully pulpit as Prime Minister and state that the Climate Change Emergency is a fraud and then openly refer to SDA and tell people to go there.

The internet can be as much a source of power and truth for him as it is for us.

Posted by: Oz at November 27, 2009 11:51 AM

call puffin (decline)

Posted by: ∞² at November 27, 2009 11:51 AM

I was taught years ago that the different thickness of tree rings was due to water availability.
The variation of water from year to year would be greater than temperature.

Posted by: Curt at November 27, 2009 11:56 AM

In the clearest description of the ponzi that is carbon taxes, read the following report on the City of Tofino, and budget discussions.

How messed our world really is. Taxes on taxes for taxes.

POTENTIAL COST OF MEETING ZERO EMISSION TARGET $1,200 PER YEAR

The district of Tofino should set aside $1,200 per year starting in 2012 to offset the cost of achieving its goal of having zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, according to its head of finance.

Edward Henley presented a report to council detailing what the district would have to do in order to meet its commitment to be carbon neutral by 2012.

In July 2008, the provincial government began taxing carbon and offered to pay out a portion of the revenues from the tax to municipalities, if they agreed to be carbon neutral by 2012.

Tofino signed on in 2009 and Henley said there are three ways the district can follow through; by either reducing the amount of GHGs it emits, setting aside funds to buy carbon credits to offset GHG emissions, or a combination of the two.

The district bought fossil fuels that would produce 50.99 metric tonnes of GHGs, for the year ending Oct. 31, 2009.

Henley said it would cost (at minimum) $968.85 to offset those emissions, but the district would also get a carbon tax rebate of $516.23.

Those numbers are based on current consumption.

Henley also noted that the carbon tax would increase incrementally and could come close to or exceed the cost of purchasing offsets.

http://www.canada.com/Tofino+council+meeting+councillors+present/2269483/story.html

And yes, the GST applies to the carbon tax.

Harper was smart enough to make sure the feds got a piece of the action.

Posted by: hardboiled at November 27, 2009 12:02 PM

There are ominous signs that the Earth’s weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production – with serious political implications for just about every nation on Earth. The drop in food output could begin quite soon, perhaps only 10 years from now. The regions destined to feel its impact are the great wheat-producing lands of Canada and the U.S.S.R. in the North, along with a number of marginally self-sufficient tropical areas – parts of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indochina and Indonesia – where the growing season is dependent upon the rains brought by the monsoon. ..........To scientists, these seemingly disparate incidents represent the advance signs of fundamental changes in the world’s weather. The central fact is that after three quarters of a century of extraordinarily mild conditions, the earth’s climate seems to be cooling down. Meteorologists disagree about the cause and extent of the cooling trend, as well as over its specific impact on local weather conditions. But they are almost unanimous in the view that the trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century. If the climatic change is as profound as some of the pessimists fear, the resulting famines could be catastrophic. “A major climatic change would force economic and social adjustments on a worldwide scale,” warns a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences, “because the global patterns of food production and population that have evolved are implicitly dependent on the climate of the present century.”
Newsweek, April 28, 1975
LOL The wonders of AGW.

Posted by: ella at November 27, 2009 12:06 PM

thank you ella

Posted by: hardboiled at November 27, 2009 12:17 PM

reminds me, it's not the warming it's the sudden cooling at the end that hurts.

that's what i recall reading caused the great famine 1315-17, millions died.
re, ella

Posted by: blanks at November 27, 2009 12:18 PM

There are ominous signs that the Earth’s weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food -vegetable- production
~ella

FIFY
It just might really suck for vegetarians, meat eaters....not so much.

Cattle can live on high cellulose vegetation that we can't eat.

Time to eradicate those top tier predators who are going to be directly competing with us for the meat.

Posted by: Oz at November 27, 2009 12:22 PM

Ken, yup. Even the CTV's readers are calling bullshiTT !!

Everyday citizens are taking the media to task on global warming religion - BIG TIME !!

Graveyard whistling walking

Posted by: ron in kelowna ∴ at November 27, 2009 12:26 PM

BUT at some point, some free world leader will have to put on his frickin pants and start telling the truth here....I know Harper knows that GW is a crock of shit.
Posted by: Right Honorable Terry Tory at November 27, 2009 11:35 AM

I sympathize with you Terry. In my letter to the PM I sent yesterday, I told Mr. Harper that I accept the fact that wide latitude must generally be given in a minority parliament situation.

But, I further explained that in the case of the AGW fraud, I could brook no latitude, and that this is a situation that requires a leader to lead. Not to follow the polls, but to lead them. Basic human rights of freedom and economic liberty should not be subject to the vagaries of minority parliament realpolitik.

IMO.

Posted by: Colin from Mission B.C. at November 27, 2009 12:46 PM

Harper could come right out and say Anthropogenic Climate Change is a fraud and the opposition could do nothing.

If the opposition tried to cause an election over it the election wouldn't take place before February and, with what would be revealed by that time about this scandal, the opposition would be slaughtered at the polls.

Posted by: Oz at November 27, 2009 12:51 PM

Used to be, they made hockey sticks out of wood.
Then they made hockey sticks out of carbon fibre.
Now, they are making them out of bullshit.

Posted by: gordinkneehill at 11:28 AM


actually, stating that they now make them out of demoCRAP would be more accurate

Posted by: GYM at November 27, 2009 1:35 PM

Ken,& ron in kelowna re: ctv, yes they are letting opposing comments go through, even mine went through, wow, that's a first. Wonder if they'll close it all soon ... hope not.
Where's the usual greenie-screechers on this?
Not up yet?

May this lunacy of AGW be put to rest and appropriate legal action taken on those responsible.

Posted by: ldd at November 27, 2009 1:36 PM

Still no identity on the 'hackers'. hmmm
Good point ron in kelowna @1040.

I love Shaidle's 'Climataquiddick, only for the reference to 'cover up'.
The right name for this is Climategate, because I'm guessing we will soon find out all this info came from insiders who couldn't cover it up any longer.
Think 'All the President's Men'.It was the insiders that cracked.
This time the internet has replaced Woodward and Bernstein.

Posted by: bluetech at November 27, 2009 1:38 PM

This time the internet has replaced Woodward and Bernstein.
----------------------------
And it's the modern day Woodward and Bernstein's who are covering it up. How ironic!

Posted by: Louise at November 27, 2009 1:42 PM

Oz @ 12:22: "It just might really suck for vegetarians, meat eaters....not so much."
================================
Not so fast. The food that meat eaters consume would not exist if there is not enough vegetation for the animals. Even carnivorous animals rely on there being a plenty supply herbivores to munch on. Remove the plant life, you eventually remove all life.

Next time you bite into a nice juicy steak, remember what the steer was eating just before he was beheaded.

Posted by: Louise at November 27, 2009 1:56 PM

Just musing here, but is it possible that "Climate Gate" has lit a fire under TOTUS's butt and he's realized that it's "now or never"? Is it possible that TOTUS will become, to quote Rush, a "political suicide bomber"?

If I understood John Bolton correctly he said that any deal in Copenhagen would not be binding to the US. It was a bunch of Constitutional stuff. That being said, TOTUS could sign said agreement to save his domestic policy while planning not to meet his international commitments.

What do you think HBoiled, does this seem like a reasonable prognostication?

btw, like I said before, way before, PMSH must emulate what the US does to preserve the export industries in central Canada.

Posted by: Indiana Homez at November 27, 2009 2:09 PM

Ron in Kelowna. This comes from the article you linked to:

"The Queen urged Prime Minister Stephen Harper and other leaders from the 53-member body to regain the Commonwealth's relevance by leading the battle against climate change."

Ha!!! If the Commonwealth wants to regain it's relevance, how 'bout doing just the opposite. Harper should become a leader in the battle against climate change fraud.

Posted by: Louise at November 27, 2009 2:22 PM

The Queen is old and befuddled; she has had horrible things happen in her family, her nation is staggering around on it's last legs because the guilt ridden former Imperialists have allowed their country to be overrun by PC and unions and immigrants who hate the British people. The Queen is a lovely old lady, in some respects, but she has never spoken for me. Eric Nielson and Prime Minister, Stephen Harper are the only leaders of my country who have ever spoken for me.

I trust our Prime Minister.

Posted by: Jema54 at November 27, 2009 3:33 PM

Those of us that grew up in the 60's and 70's, at least in Ontario, seem to recall lots of snow and cooler temperatures and talk of a coming ice age by some of these same guys. So maybe the trees were not lieing ;)

Posted by: WTF at November 27, 2009 4:38 PM

Those of us that grew up in the 60's and 70's, at least in Ontario, seem to recall lots of snow and cooler temperatures and talk of a coming ice age by some of these same guys. So maybe the trees were not lieing ;)

Posted by: WTF at November 27, 2009 4:38 PM

Not so fast. The food that meat eaters consume would not exist if there is not enough vegetation for the animals.
~Louise

Yeah, I know herbivores eat vegetation.
A lot of the beef we eat here in Alberta winters in the foothills eating prairie grasses that are quite hardy.

Sure, the beef is fed out on grain in feed lots before slaughter, but it doesn't have to be.
We could eat leaner meat, but we can't eat prairie grass.
The pioneers who settled here lived on mostly meat.

As I said, meat eaters will do fine, vegetarians are gonna convert or starve if it gets colder.

Posted by: Oz at November 27, 2009 4:47 PM

Oz, I don't think you got my point. If it gets colder, don't count on there being sufficient plant food period, whether wild or domesticated. The cattle industry would collapse if it had to depend solely on natural grasses, and even they may not survive, or at the very least, be abundant enough to sustain an cattle, or for that matter, any other domesticated animal industry large enough to feed us all. That's why the "deniers" have warned that cooling would be a lot worse than warming.

Posted by: Louise at November 27, 2009 5:48 PM

Think of the Inuit, Louise

Posted by: rebarbarian at November 27, 2009 6:16 PM

The cattle industry would collapse if it had to depend solely on natural grasses...
~Louise

Louise, the cattle industry once did just fine on natural grasses alone and it could again.

If all the grass is gone then , yes you have a point and, we're all gonna die.

Say la-V.
La-V, there I've said it. 8^D
We're all gonna die some day anyhow, it's been a nice run, it's too bad for the baby seals.
Oh, wait, the baby seals aren't gonna be affected by the loss of grass.

We'll just have to eat them, then.
Ah, meat, glorious meat.

At least I won't have to die at the hands of some commie fascist heinyacker.

...industry large enough to feed us all.
~Louise

Anyone and everyone who ever supported global warming doesn't get ANY food, and I mean anyone who supported it, if global cooling leads to famine.
It's time these chuckleheads were weeded out of the gene pool, they're a waste of carbon.

Posted by: Oz at November 27, 2009 7:42 PM

What about the Inuit, rebarbarian? They used to eat the stomach contents of the cariboo who fed on plants. If they hadn't done that, they would not have had any source of several of the essential nutrients necessary to sustain human health. I rest my case. Heck, even sea animals eat plant food, or at least other sea animals that eat plant food. No plants. No cariboo. No Inuit.

Posted by: Louise at November 27, 2009 7:49 PM

No plants. No cariboo. No Inuit.
~Louise

There's always baby seals and sea weed.
The oceans are teaming with life.

Posted by: Oz at November 27, 2009 7:58 PM

"Well, I hope that the PM opens his ears and listens to the other leaders. Climate change will affect those island states drastically. And that he goes to Copenhagen with a strong commitment to action. But from what we've seen so far in this country, he is not predisposed to change his mind - even when he is wrong. So I guess he is there for the photo op and a little R&R in the warm sun. Don't forget to don your sunscreen Stevie."

I like this comment on the CTV blog.His ignorance and stupidity is further compounded by the fact he doesn't even know that Denmark is in the northern hemisphere and "its fall/winter there now.

Posted by: Horny Toad at November 27, 2009 9:05 PM

LOL H.T. They are everywhere, one got so twisted up in her moma-gaia is dying right now(!)belief that within a few comments she actually stated something along the line of, "why don't you just go and research the climate scientist's research papers yourselves then if you don't beleive in AGW"...this was on a threat from an article that Colby Cosh has done on this Climategate at the MacLeans magazine site.

Posted by: ldd at November 27, 2009 9:43 PM
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