There has been the most extraordinary series of postings at Climate Audit over the last week. As is usual at CA, there is a heavy mathematics burden for the casual reader, which, with a bit of research I think I can now just about follow. The story is a remarkable indictment of the corruption and cyncism that is rife among climate scientists, and I'm going to try to tell it in layman's language so that the average blog reader can understand it. As far as I know it's the first time the whole story has been set out in a single posting. It's a long tale - and the longest posting I think I've ever written and piecing it together from the individual CA postings has been a long, hard but fascinating struggle. You may want to get a long drink before starting, and those who suffer from heart disorders may wish to take their beta blockers first.
Caspar and the Jesus paper. (August 2008)
h/t Maz2
Posted by Kate at August 27, 2009 10:01 AMHow does one manage to wrest from the very successful the product of their success, without a violent backlash? How do you ratchet down the lifestyle of history's most successful social organization, one that consumes vast resources without an uncontrollable awakening?
This is what climate change has been about - to dampen the success of western democracies and economies, in the name of global or 'social' justice, while extinguishing the ire of a well-armed populace.
It is absolutely necessary to lie, and lie boldly, and often, and consistently, in order to persuade the gifted to surrender their gifts, lest you have to tear it from them by force - at which point, even your most tame MSM kitten will finally find its claws and fangs.
The steep irony of this whole process is that should it all succeed, the Al Gore's of this world will wonder what happened to the airworthiness of the jet he uses to wander the skies, or how to keep the keys from falling off the Blackberry he uses to review hourly Carbon-Credit sales. Imagine a Lada with wings, and a Lada with a keyboard - that's where Al Gore will end up if he gets his way.
And then there is the thought of Nancy going under the knife of a plastic surgeon in an underfunded clinic, at the hands of an income-limited professional seething with every breath.
It is time to go Galt on these fools.
Posted by: shaken at August 27, 2009 10:33 AMNothing to see here, move along move along...
Back in my undergrad days, this type of math was known as Magic Math. Basically, you didn't have to show most of your work or data, just a few "main points" and jump to the conclusion.
However, this usually didn't earn any marks as most professors have (well, had) a well tuned BS detector. It was well understood by both student and prof that doing work like this was an attempt to hide incompetence, lack of understanding, or late night at the pub.
By the time grad school came along, the usual process of "merit" had worked it charm. Simply put, most attempts to continue with Magic Math had stopped because it was the poorer students who attempted it in the first place.
These guys (ammnan, wahl, mann, etc) shouldn't even hold undergrad degrees, let alone be referenced as the source for good scientific study.
To think that Magic Math is now forming the basis of profound changes to economic and social structures to the world is absolutely stunningly insane.
Posted by: Frenchie77 at August 27, 2009 10:49 AMThanks. It's not that difficult a read actually and the math is logically explained. However, if this doesn't show us the futility of trying to change the minds of true believers, what will?
Posted by: ducktrapper at August 27, 2009 10:51 AMYou are mistaken, shaken, to think that what will happen to us will happen to the socialist elites.
Most of us great unwashed are here to provide and care for each other, while the elites have recognized that the world and human society have reached a state that would be better for them if there were less of us.
They, the elites, now only need enough of us to care and provide for them.
Posted by: Oz at August 27, 2009 10:56 AMTheir mistake, Oz, is that they assume that the creativity of those they corral will continue to pour forth. Fundamentally wrong. Creativity is fueled by self-interest, and the benefit to society is a side effect. Competition determines which products of creativity thrive, and which die.
In the corral, creativity is served in enough measure to get by. No reason to take a real risk.
Posted by: shaken at August 27, 2009 11:07 AMI think, shaken, that they believe that they are satisfied that enough has already been created/invented for now.
Machines, robots, computers, high-tech medicine, foodstuffs that can last for a decade in storage, warehouses full of unsold goods, the elites have more than what they need to start over if we don't use it all up.
It won't take long for a lot of the masses to starve/freeze to death and/or perish from a plague, then they'll start over with a new feudal society.
Michelangelo and some of the great minds of antiquity were born into such societies.
Try to see it from the elitist point of view.
Elites who are billionaires can only be wealthier if we, by contrast, are poorer.
Posted by: Oz at August 27, 2009 11:21 AMNobody can torture data like a Warmonger trying to keep his gravy train of funds & fame rolling on.
Wall, Amman, Mann etc . . we have your names and when the time comes to lay the blame for this fiasco, you will be top of list.
You can kiss your reputations and I hope your pensions goodbye.
Jail time would be appropriate. Here's hoping your cell mate is named Bubba and that he is "gentle" with you.
Oz, that does not square with the notions of the 'Green Economy', and the R&D needed to find sustainable replacements for carbon oxidation-based energy. If oil is not sustainable, and is being depleted, as they would have us believe, then new sources of energy must be found.
Their paradox is that the society of which they dream is one which destroys that aspect of the human spirit which will deliver the alternative energy sources they need for that green, perfect society over which they will rule. That is, unless they think they can 'invent by committee', or 'invent by fiat'. (In Al Gore's case, it could be invention by historical revision - a very special for of the art).
They delude themselves in thinking that any carrot other than the carrot of self-interest has any flavor or nutritional value. This is why we have always seen these systems devolve to massive stick-wielding exercises, and there is no reason to believe it will not always unfold just so.
Oh, I nearly forgot - and this is important - there will be special ribbons for the chattering journalist classes. "Hero of the Green Revolution" and so forth. Very impressive.
Posted by: shaken at August 27, 2009 11:53 AM"E = MC2"
Very Good, Albert....but next time show your work.
Posted by: John Luft at August 27, 2009 12:02 PMOz, that does not square with the notions of the 'Green Economy', and the R&D needed to find sustainable replacements for carbon oxidation-based energy.
~shaken
You're mistaken, shaken, in believing that they, the elitists, believe in the goals they are foisting on us.
They don't.
You're arguing in good faith and they aren't, and never are/were/will argue in good faith.
Reading Solomon's column in the weekend Financial Post indicating Al Gore is poised to make a Billion $ plus with carbon credit and marketing his green investment plans, is infuriating. When he lost his Presidential bid he had a net worth of $2,000,000.
Posted by: MikeWa at August 27, 2009 12:21 PMOf course, the data to justify the hockey stick is bogus.
You don't even need to be a scientist to understand the diminshing of sunspot activity has made the globe somewhat cooler.
Posted by: set you free at August 27, 2009 12:32 PMThe problem with junk science as a tool to make social policy, is that sooner or later somebody does the math. Then you're screwed.
Same as gun control, same a-holes pushing it too. Any bets on single payer health care being at least as bogus? Same guys.
Posted by: The Phantom at August 27, 2009 1:33 PMSpurious Goreacle's Report: Hello. My name is Albert Gore, Jr.
Albert is my second name; my first name is Spurious and I am furious at Dr. Roy Spencer.
...-
"Spencer: NOAA’s official sea surface temperature product ERSST has spurous warming error, July 2009 SST likely not a record after all.
Spurious Warming in New NOAA Ocean Temperature Product: The Smoking Gun
Dr. Roy Spencer August 27th, 2009
After crunching data this week from two of our satellite-based microwave sensors, and from NOAA’s official sea surface temperature (SST) product ERSST v3b, I think the evidence is pretty clear:
The ERSST v3b product has a spurious warming since 1998 of about 0.2 deg. C, most of which occurred as a jump in 2001.
The following three panels tell the story."
http://wattsupwiththat.com/
Now I know why Al Gore has gone from being quite good looking to appearing bloated and evil-looking. 'Anyone else notice something about his eyes? They're snake-like. Wow, really not a nice guy.
This Bishop Hill: -- "not a bishop ... [and] not actually called Hill either" -- has a way with words. Though I didn't understand the really technical parts of the argument, I had no trouble getting the gist of the article.
And, BTW, Jesus really has nothing to do with the argument, either. His name just takes the place of "resurrection," something that happened ... well, you'll just have to read the article yourself!
OTOH, considering the gravity of the dissembling and the dark shenanigans going on vis a vis climate scientists, it wouldn't be a bad idea to bring Jesus into the equation. IMO, prayer is called for.
Posted by: batb at August 27, 2009 10:49 PMHell of a good article. I have never trusted IPCC or the AGW State-Paid Scientists.
My theory has been and shall remain Planetary Alignment and Solar Activity produces the fluctuating temperatures on Earth, not Man.
But, this was a scam to begin with the perpetrators of AGW knew they had about a 15 year window to pull this off, especially since the global temps are going down. Al Gore was suppose to win, and while he was President would have passed AGW Legislation and then Bada Bing Bada Boom come 2008 the last year of his Presidency could have claimed their efforts to thwart Global Warming were successful, and Man oh Man, fleecing the American Public would know no bounds then.